Speculation: How we fit under the cap in 21-22

[417]

No disrespect intended to the thread starter but...I wish fans put down their salary cap calculators for 5 minutes and just enjoyed the offseason for once.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

In what world is Poehling ready to take over Danault and go face Crosby and McDavid out there every night without getting hemmed in his zone the whole evening?

The guy can't even make the team for god sake!

We are talking a year from now. Needs a good year in the AHL and to show promise end of year in the NHL but a year ago he was knocking on the door.

 

[malton]

Byron has to be on the move and we need to find a true top end LW.

 

[habs03]

No - I agree with other poster. Drouin still has value around the league. He's comparable to Domi who we just traded, or Danault. That tier of value. You don't leave that type of asset unprotected.

Drouin's problem is the same today as it was when we got him. He could do so much more. Maybe this is the year he finally breaks out. He should be a ppg+ winger, but don't know that he'll ever reach it.

Regardless - it's very possible we do move on from Drouin and end up trading him for a return at some point - but giving him away for free is never going to happen.

This exactly. Drouin is the most talent player on the team. People talk about needing elite talent, he is that. Teams will always take chances on elite talent.

2 years ago, when he had a horrible finish, he still had a career high 53 points (Gallagher has only 1 season with more points then that).

The issue with Drouin is its mentally, when his confidence is shot, he is useless, but when he is on, he is on. 2 years ago, he was a point a game player for the first 45 games. Then went MIA for the last part of the year.

 

[bsl]

With the growing number of long term contracts that are being signed, I feel we now have a clearer picture of what is considered to be the core of the team, and of what it may look like in 2021-22. And the way I see it, it's almost possible to keep with core intact for a few years, even with a flat cap, by replacing expensive 4th line and bottom pair players with youngsters.

Players signed for 2021-22 :

1-Drouin
2-Anderson
3-Toffoli
4-Gallagher
5-Byron
6-Suzuki
7-Evans

1-Weber
2-Petry
3-Chiarot
4-Edmundson
5-Kulak
6-Romanov

1-Price
2-Allen

Cap space : 15,55 M$ (15 players)

RFA

We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.

8- Kotkaniemi : 3 M$
9- Lehkonen : 2 M$

7- Mete : 0,750 M$

Cap space : 9,8 M$ (18 players)

UFA + rookies

We need to add 5 forwards for that price. I think Danault has to be signed, because nobody can do what he does as well as him in the system. I will even add Armia, even if we could decide to move on from him at this point.

10- Danault : 5 M$
11- Armia : 3,5 M$

And I think we can expect a few youngsters to make the team. I'll add 3 of them.

12- Caufield : 0,850 M$
13- Poehling : 0,925 M$
14- Ylonen : 0,881 M$

Cap space : 3,644 M$ (23 players)

Expansion draft

Here comes the unpredictable part. One of our signed players will be drafted by Seattle, freeing cap space for us. I think the most likely scenario is that we protect 7 forwards (Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli, Gallagher, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Armia), 3 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Chiarot) and 1 goalie (Price). That leaves Lehkonen, Byron, Edmundson, Kulak and Allen exposed. Lehkonen and Allen are probably the 2 most likely candidates to be drafted. Let's say it's Allen, and we replace him with Primeau.

Cap space after expansion draft : 5,64 M$

Then we replace Allen with Primeau.

Drouin - Suzuki - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Ylonen - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Lehkonen - Evans - Armia
Byron, Poehling

Romanov - Weber
Chiarot - Petry
Edmundson - Mete
Kulak

Price
Primeau

-------------------

Where does that leaves us?

We lose Tatar and Weal, but are easily able to retain all the other core players and more. And we still have over 5 millions in cap space. We could easily get more cap space by not signing Armia, or by trading Byron or Lehkonen. This would give us enough dollar to re-sign Tatar, or even a more expensive LW.

In conclusion, keeping our core intact absolutely won't be a problem, even with a flat cap, especially with the expansion draft coming.

The challenge might only come in 2022-23, if Suzuki needs a big raise. But until then, this team won't be in cap hell.

Danault re-signed at 5 MIll? LOL No thanks. Equivalent C man for third line can be found for 3 Mill.

 

[Mrb1p]

Danault re-signed at 5 MIll? LOL No thanks. Equivalent C man for third line can be found for 3 Mill.

Maybe not equivalent, but on value as a 3rd line center, I agree. Its dumb to pay a third liner 5 millions, no matter wtv the F happens.

 

[Kwikwi]

Maybe not equivalent, but on value as a 3rd line center, I agree. Its dumb to pay a third liner 5 millions, no matter wtv the F happens.

You've had a rough week with all theses changes.
The fact that you say Danault is a 3rd line, in the head of the organization hes probably closer to 1st than 3rd until prove otherwise.
And again the guy delivers, like it of not. The whole line has been the most stable thing weve had in years.
Underpaid the last 3 years and can give us 50 points with no powerplay.

 

[Mrb1p]

You've had a rough week with all theses changes.
The fact that you say Danault is a 3rd line, in the head of the organization hes probably closer to 1st than 3rd until prove otherwise.
And again the guy delivers, like it of not. The whole line has been the most stable thing weve had in years.
Underpaid the last 3 years and can give us 50 points with no powerplay.

Its literally not what I said, lmao.

Its dumb to pay a 3rd liner, which is where he should play, 5m+. Thats what I said. Again, just reading would've worked, not going to lie...

He won't produce 50 points with third line minutes and third line linemates, he barely scratched that with the most offensive opportunities one could get.

 

[Kwikwi]

Its literally not what I said, lmao.

Its dumb to pay a 3rd liner, which is where he should play, 5m+. Thats what I said. Again, just reading would've worked, not going to lie...

He won't produce 50 points with third line minutes and third line linemates, he barely scratched that with the most offensive opportunities one could get.

and then I said hes not the 3rd liner, KK is

 

[CHfan1]

Kotkaniemi is the big unknown and I think he’ll get more than $3 million like the OP has him getting.

 

[Mrb1p]

and then I said hes not the 3rd liner, KK is

Then all these acquisitions are for nothing because Danault isnt good enough to play in a competittives team top 6.

 

[Kwikwi]

Then all these acquisitions are for nothing because Danault isnt good enough to play in a competittives team top 6.

like Krejci? the 2nd center of the best team in the league last year?
cmon talent is not just being able to be at a point per game

 

[Mrb1p]

like Krejci? the 2nd center of the best team in the league last year?
cmon talent is not just being able to be at a point per game

Krejci is infinetely better than Danault offensively, like the comparison is laughable.

 

[Kwikwi]

Krejci is infinetely better than Danault offensively, like the comparison is laughable.

yeah because you look at points only

 

[bcv]

Pittsburgh giving 7% of their cap to Jordan Staal as a "3rd line" center seemed to have worked out pretty good. Paying Danault 5.5M is 6.7% of the cap. Being strong down the middle is a must to have a contending team.

 

[Mrb1p]

yeah because you look at points only

No, because Krejci was a legit top center in the league at the height of the Bruins era from 10-18.

Anyway, this is asinine since the only thing Danault has going for him to prove he's a top 6 C is that he produces good numbers at ES. He surely doesnt pass the eye test.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Danault and Drouin aren't going anywhere. Especially after the Habs don't ever draft Frenchie's fiasco.

Armia's demands will dictate if he stays in Montreal or not.

Less than 3 million and he stays, more and he's gone. Especially if he will be playing 4th like duties behind Gally, Anderson and Toffoli.

With size being back on the forefront of Habs plan, expect Armia to stay and Lehkonen to go. Especially is Byron is still in the picture.

Hoffman signing would really clear things up for us.

Drouin - Danault - Gally
Hoffman - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - Kotka - Armia

Either way another LW wouldn't hurt to replace Tatar.

I don't believe Habs will be in cap hell.

Especially if they get rid of Byron and possibly Allen in expansion.

I truly believe Demchenko will do really well in Laval and get the back-up job for a year until Primeau is ready to be full time back-up for 30 games a season.

 

[japhi]

Imagine watching the last few years of Habs play and thinking there is a defined first second and third lines. How many games do you guys need to see before you realize we roll three fairly evenly, with most of the different in total TOI coming from PK and PP usage?

Hard to get into debate with posters that don’t even have the proper baseline for a discussion.

We are going to roll three fairly evenly. 16 mins per top 9 give or take, with in game variance. Feel free to argue that you can’t pay a guy playing shutdown minutes, 16 per game, elite PK, and 40+ points 5mm. Cause that is what us actually up for discussion, not this 1985 notion of lines 1/2/3. Be better people, this is a hockey enthusiast board, lets try and keep up

 

[Sorinth]

We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.

Lehkonen can only get a lower salary if we sign him to a multi year deal because we have to at least offer him a 1 year QO with his current salary (Possibly even a 10% raise) to retain his rights.

It seems unlikely that Lehkonen would sign a multi-year deal at less then his current 2.4, he'd be far better served accepting the QO until FA.

 

[ML16]

Here are some ideas for cap relief; only 1 or 2 of these would actually be required for functional cap flexibility next season, especially considering that the expansion draft next offseason likely sheds around 3M if Edmunston/Chiarot or Allen is selected by Seattle.

1. A) Trade Weal and save 1.4M

Unlikely without coming along with pick(s) incentive since he earns twice as much as he’s worth in the COVID market. This being said, the Habs have too much 3-4-5th round picks next year, so one or two could be use to move Weal without taking on a contract back.

1. B) Bury Weal in the AHL and save 300K

Considering he must replaced by another 13th forward in the NHL (700K) this move barely saves 300K against the cap, a marginal effect at best.

2. Trade Kulak and save 1,85M :

Considering Romanov’s addition, the Habs can go along with 2 of Mete/Ouellet/Juulsen/Fleury as an even more affordable 6/7D option, making Kulak expandable. Kulak’s relative value will probably never been higher and he remains somewhat cost efficient in the current market, he would thus not be a cap dump per se and could actually fetch a modest return (3rd round pick maybe?, especially with a late pick coming along with Kulak).

3. Trade Byron and save 3.4M

In today’s market, one cannot hope to see Byron’s contract traded unless it would be for a similar « bad contract » (no cap impact) or if it is attached to significant incentives. For taking on Byron, I’d be willing to go as far 4 picks in 2021 (2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th round picks) in the 2021. If the price is higher, I’d cut my losses and look instead to trade Kulak, Weal, Armia or Lekhonen (in that order), since they could actually fetch an interesting return, a better asset management result, even if they are all more cost efficient than Byron.

4. Trade one of Lekhonen/Armia and save 2.4M/2.6M

With the Habs new acquisitions, one of Lekhonen/Armia will to be relegated to 4th line and PK duties. Even then, their respective cap hits remain manageable, especially considering either would be the first forward to move in the top-9 after injuries occur. I would trade one of them as a last resort; Armia would seem like the obvious candidate since the Habs are now stacked at RW and have Caufield coming along as well. Also, better to trade one if them and protect the other, especially with Allen/Edmunston now being the prime candidates for Seattle.

 

[bsl]

One of Chiarot or Edmunson is claimed and replaced with Fleury as Romanov moves into the top 4 full time. (2.5 saved)

Tatar walks and is replaced with Caufield (3.9 saved)

Allen contract goes down (1.6 saved)

Alzner buyout goes down (2 saved)

I'm assuming Byron gets dumped in the next couple weeks and replaced with a 4thiner or Poeing (2 saved)


Gallagher got 2.75 increase

Lets say Danault gets 5.5 so 2.5 increase

Armia walks

Lehkonen gets a 400k raise to 3

Sign KK 6x6 (assuming 50+ point season)

Our team is as follows

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson (12)
Toffoli - KK - Caufield (11.25)
Lehkonen - Danault - Gallagher (15)
Poehling - Evans - Random Villain 4th liner (4)
Random 13th forward(.7)

Romanov - Weber (9)
Edmunson - Petry (10)
Kulak - Fleury (3)
Juulsen (.7)

Price (10.5)
Allen (2.9)

Alzner buyout (2)

I rounded up on all these numbers aswell

Final Cap hit

81.05 million

So definitely doable to be under the Cap.

The next issue is Suzuki's and Romanov's deals the year after but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. And hope league revenues return to normal in 18 months and the cap goes up by more than 1 mil.

Danault 5.5 LOL

 

[bsl]

I'd take Armia over Lehkonen every day.

People hyped about Anderson and his 200+shots/hits. Armia was on pace to do same last season. Having both going to cause opposition teams problems.

I agree. No idea why everyone is willing to get rid of Armia. He can pot some goals, has size, good on boards. Much better at taking the wear and tear than the smurfs.

 

[bsl]

In a world where Suzuki and Kotkaniemi exist? KK will be in his fourth year by then.

And if Poelhing is not ready or busts, plenty of good and hopefully with size Cmen available at 3 Mill that are likely almost as good defensively. I'lll tear my hair out if they extend danault at more than 3.5 Mill. You don't pay no 3Cs 5.5 mill LOL.

 

[bsl]

Nice, so were banking on a 19 years old 5'7 kid that hasn't played a pro game to be our only top 9 winger.

Recipe for success

Toff can play LW. He will very likely play there.

 

[bsl]

You've had a rough week with all theses changes.
The fact that you say Danault is a 3rd line, in the head of the organization hes probably closer to 1st than 3rd until prove otherwise.
And again the guy delivers, like it of not. The whole line has been the most stable thing weve had in years.
Underpaid the last 3 years and can give us 50 points with no powerplay.

I've said more than once that the Danault line is the one I am most worried about going forward. Especially if Gally is not in good health. That line could crater offensively at the drop of a dime. I'm actually expecting it. In 2 years that should be the third line. Minus Tatar likely, the most offensively talented of the three.