Speculation: How we fit under the cap in 21-22

[WatchfulElm]

With the growing number of long term contracts that are being signed, I feel we now have a clearer picture of what is considered to be the core of the team, and of what it may look like in 2021-22. And the way I see it, it's almost possible to keep with core intact for a few years, even with a flat cap, by replacing expensive 4th line and bottom pair players with youngsters.

Players signed for 2021-22 :

1-Drouin
2-Anderson
3-Toffoli
4-Gallagher
5-Byron
6-Suzuki
7-Evans

1-Weber
2-Petry
3-Chiarot
4-Edmundson
5-Kulak
6-Romanov

1-Price
2-Allen

Cap space : 15,55 M$ (15 players)

RFA

We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.

8- Kotkaniemi : 3 M$
9- Lehkonen : 2 M$

7- Mete : 0,750 M$

Cap space : 9,8 M$ (18 players)

UFA + rookies

We need to add 5 forwards for that price. I think Danault has to be signed, because nobody can do what he does as well as him in the system. I will even add Armia, even if we could decide to move on from him at this point.

10- Danault : 5 M$
11- Armia : 3,5 M$

And I think we can expect a few youngsters to make the team. I'll add 3 of them.

12- Caufield : 0,850 M$
13- Poehling : 0,925 M$
14- Ylonen : 0,881 M$

Cap space : 3,644 M$ (23 players)

Expansion draft

Here comes the unpredictable part. One of our signed players will be drafted by Seattle, freeing cap space for us. I think the most likely scenario is that we protect 7 forwards (Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli, Gallagher, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Armia), 3 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Chiarot) and 1 goalie (Price). That leaves Lehkonen, Byron, Edmundson, Kulak and Allen exposed. Lehkonen and Allen are probably the 2 most likely candidates to be drafted. Let's say it's Allen, and we replace him with Primeau.

Cap space after expansion draft : 5,64 M$

Then we replace Allen with Primeau.

Drouin - Suzuki - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Ylonen - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Lehkonen - Evans - Armia
Byron, Poehling

Romanov - Weber
Chiarot - Petry
Edmundson - Mete
Kulak

Price
Primeau

-------------------

Where does that leaves us?

We lose Tatar and Weal, but are easily able to retain all the other core players and more. And we still have over 5 millions in cap space. We could easily get more cap space by not signing Armia, or by trading Byron or Lehkonen. This would give us enough dollar to re-sign Tatar, or even a more expensive LW.

In conclusion, keeping our core intact absolutely won't be a problem, even with a flat cap, especially with the expansion draft coming.

The challenge might only come in 2022-23, if Suzuki needs a big raise. But until then, this team won't be in cap hell.

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[Just Linda]

We can and we will :p

Seattle will help a bit, itll be tight but we will field a good team next year for sure

 

[Naslund]

Things can change of course, but at the moment, I predict that the Habs are going to protect Lekhonen and expose Drouin. I don't think the Habs will want to have two softies (Drouin and Caufield) in the lineup. I think Caufield is going to be the skilled powerplay guy that makes Drouin completely expendable on the team. Either Drouin is traded next summer or exposed to Seattle. Tatar is not going to be re-signed.

 

[le_sean]

Ylonen is not making the NHL next year. He can’t even score in Finland. We are more likely to see Poehling or Teasdale.

 

[habs03]

Things can change of course, but at the moment, I predict that the Habs are going to protect Lekhonen and expose Drouin. I don't think the Habs will want to have two softies (Drouin and Caufield) in the lineup. I think Caufield is going to be the skilled powerplay guy that makes Drouin completely expendable on the team. Either Drouin is traded next summer or exposed to Seattle. Tatar is not going to be re-signed.

ZERO chance, literally zero.

IMO Lek can still be protected as pending RFA. Armia will be a pending UFA so there is no need to protect him.

He isn't good enough to be signing a year away from UFA, plus I think he'll price himself out of Montreal. You can find cheaper replacement. Heck RW is already a strength, and you'll have Ylonen and Claufield pushing. Also Evans can play RW if Poehling is the 4th line C.

 

[salbutera]

 

[Supersonic]

Ylonen will not be able to step up like that by next year. Poehling has an outside shot, given he gets back on track after a very bad year.

I hope they make the playoffs and find some success then unload Byron onto a team for the cost of a 2nd rounder.

 

[Captain97]

One of Chiarot or Edmunson is claimed and replaced with Fleury as Romanov moves into the top 4 full time. (2.5 saved)

Tatar walks and is replaced with Caufield (3.9 saved)

Allen contract goes down (1.6 saved)

Alzner buyout goes down (2 saved)

I'm assuming Byron gets dumped in the next couple weeks and replaced with a 4thiner or Poeing (2 saved)


Gallagher got 2.75 increase

Lets say Danault gets 5.5 so 2.5 increase

Armia walks

Lehkonen gets a 400k raise to 3

Sign KK 6x6 (assuming 50+ point season)

Our team is as follows

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson (12)
Toffoli - KK - Caufield (11.25)
Lehkonen - Danault - Gallagher (15)
Poehling - Evans - Random Villain 4th liner (4)
Random 13th forward(.7)

Romanov - Weber (9)
Edmunson - Petry (10)
Kulak - Fleury (3)
Juulsen (.7)

Price (10.5)
Allen (2.9)

Alzner buyout (2)

I rounded up on all these numbers aswell

Final Cap hit

81.05 million

So definitely doable to be under the Cap.

The next issue is Suzuki's and Romanov's deals the year after but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. And hope league revenues return to normal in 18 months and the cap goes up by more than 1 mil.

 

[McGees]

ZERO chance, literally zero.

IMO Lek can still be protected as pending RFA. Armia will be a pending UFA so there is no need to protect him.

He isn't good enough to be signing a year away from UFA, plus I think he'll price himself out of Montreal. You can find cheaper replacement. Heck RW is already a strength, and you'll have Ylonen and Claufield pushing. Also Evans can play RW if Poehling is the 4th line C.

If Drouin keeps being Drouin then ya I could see us making him available.

 

[habs03]

If Drouin keeps being Drouin then ya I could see us making him available.

Zero chance he is left exposed for the expansion draft.. 0

 

[Wats]

I'd take Armia over Lehkonen every day.

People hyped about Anderson and his 200+shots/hits. Armia was on pace to do same last season. Having both going to cause opposition teams problems.

 

[SakuKoivu11]

Tatar won’t be back
Drouin won’t be back
$10 mil right there

in coming Caufield

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Tatar won’t be back
Drouin won’t be back
$10 mil right there

in coming Caufield

Tatar out, Caufield in.
Danault out, Poehling in.

pretty much just that simple.

 

[McGees]

Zero chance he is left exposed for the expansion draft.. 0

U think higher of him than most of the league.

 

[vHAB]

Depending on the season they both have, good asset management might be to trade Drouin for futures if possible and re-sign Tatar. We have options, it'll be interesting to see how things go.

 

[bobholly39]

U think higher of him than most of the league.

No - I agree with other poster. Drouin still has value around the league. He's comparable to Domi who we just traded, or Danault. That tier of value. You don't leave that type of asset unprotected.

Drouin's problem is the same today as it was when we got him. He could do so much more. Maybe this is the year he finally breaks out. He should be a ppg+ winger, but don't know that he'll ever reach it.

Regardless - it's very possible we do move on from Drouin and end up trading him for a return at some point - but giving him away for free is never going to happen.

 

[Grandpa]

No - I agree with other poster. Drouin still has value around the league. He's comparable to Domi who we just traded, or Danault. That tier of value. You don't leave that type of asset unprotected.

Drouin's problem is the same today as it was when we got him. He could do so much more. Maybe this is the year he finally breaks out. He should be a ppg+ winger, but don't know that he'll ever reach it.

Regardless - it's very possible we do move on from Drouin and end up trading him for a return at some point - but giving him away for free is never going to happen.

Domi actually had great season in 2018-2019 and Danault is good at defensive play. Drouin is defensive liability who can lost his scoring touch for a month. Sometimes I'm surprised that his disappointing contract is already halfway done and he's still the same player. If there's another season of lackadaisical coasting, Canadiens should consider the option to leave him unprotected. He's intriguing talent but a bit expensive experiment on a hard cap era. After all we'd only have him on trade block if he has another bad year.

 

[Belial]

Tatar out, Caufield in.
Danault out, Poehling in.

pretty much just that simple.

In what world is Poehling ready to take over Danault and go face Crosby and McDavid out there every night without getting hemmed in his zone the whole evening?

The guy can't even make the team for god sake!

 

[CHarlie]

I already went through this a while back.......We are fine!!!!

 

[Mrb1p]

In what world is Poehling ready to take over Danault and go face Crosby and McDavid out there every night without getting hemmed in his zone the whole evening?

The guy can't even make the team for god sake!

In a world where Suzuki and Kotkaniemi exist? KK will be in his fourth year by then.

 

[Mrb1p]

Everything is fine, really, I swear.

Lw depth
Byron
Drouin
Lekhonen

Fine, I swear!

 

[Roadhouse]

I like the discussion but it appears to me this is another premature thread. We tend to forget the offseason isn't quite over yet with some teams still needing to make moves. Trying to gauge Kotkaniemi's RFA contract when he hasn't yet played a game with his new winger(s) may be an impossible exercise. I don't see Poehling and Ylonen improving to a point where they are NHL regulars next year either, but I do see Caufield's poise to turn pro make for a 2021-22 arrival in his case. Injuries in a condensed season/schedule could also influence our cap outlook for next year in a major way.

 

[BLONG7]

Loads of time here guys, so many things can happen. For years we had 8-9m in space.....now it has become a challenge, no big deal at all. Getting way ahead of ourselves here. As others have posted, there are a ton of ways to save cap space to make room for those players needed to keep and get raises.
New concept for Habs fans......
Relax guys...

 

[salbutera]

Everything is fine, really, I swear.

Lw depth
Byron
Drouin
Lekhonen

Fine, I swear!

Caufield will be converted into playing his off wing I suspect since that makes his shot even more lethal...

Drouin
Caufield
Lekhonen
Poehling

 

[Mrb1p]

Caufield will be converted into playing his off wing I suspect since that makes his shot even more lethal...

Drouin
Caufield
Lekhonen
Poehling

Nice, so were banking on a 19 years old 5'7 kid that hasn't played a pro game to be our only top 9 winger.

Recipe for success