How many MAN UTD players leave after this season? - and, what will happen to United

[les Habs]

So the context is that United were simply lucky, and that coming from the same person who made that Digne remark and who also discounted the level of skill of some of the United players as part of said luck. I mean imagine if I were to come in here and say that Liverpool were lucky because Salah scored incredible goals. Like I've said before, it's actually worse to re-post something like that than it is in the first place.

If someone can't the see the difference in performance after Solskjaer took over then so be it.

 

[Evilo]

I don't think the team has been performing much better though. I think they had a new coach boost, and the team was trying a lot harder, but since then they've looked pretty terrible. This was also in probably the most favourable stretch of the season.

Favourable stretch? Please, Mou had the same stretch in the first half games.
They looked awul and couldn't win.
Top 7 with him, top 4 without him.

 

[Evilo]

Context indeed. Even with the easiest of schedules to work OGS in after Mourinho's falling out they were vastly overperforming -- and not in the 'get the most out of the team' overperforming. They were putting up results that weren't likely, and this regression was always on its way (made worse, as it seems like the players are giving up on OGS already, though that is entirely speculation).

I don't understand your argument about schedule.
Mourinho had the same schedule. He coached half the season and thus played half the games, more or less. So had the face the same opponents in the same order (more or less).

 

[YNWA14]

That really easy stretch still included a league win away at Spurs and a draw against Liverpool both of whom had murdered the Jose led side earlier in the year. It also included Leicester away, which although it isn't on the level of the top 6 is still far from a gimme, and has away cup wins against Arsenal and Chelsea. Given where the team was under Jose, the chances of that happens seem to be about 0.

Ultimately I think we agree on the talent level of the roster. I think they're a bit better than Arsenal, about equal with Chelsea on talent with Hazard making the difference although Chelsea suffers due to mindset and mismanagement issues. Starting XI is clearly worse than Spurs, but Spurs depth is almost non-existent so seeing United compete with them over the course of a season shouldn't be shocking if Spurs are making runs in other comps or suffer injuries (as they did both this year).

Yeah I'm not saying they didn't perform better at all, because they did. But I'm more looking at the Mourinho tenure as a whole rather than just this season. Was he getting the best out of this team this season? No, but that's kind of Mourinho's thing. He had them overperforming to a large degree last season (or if you want, de Gea did, either way), and this season they stopped playing for him and it showed. OGS came in and there was that instant boost, but the level of play was really not that different aside from the players putting in more effort.

I'm not saying that United are a team that should be 10 points back of 5th, or anything like that. I'm just saying this team wasn't even a top 2 quality team last season and they got some very favourable results to achieve that. But saying they are 'much better' under OGS isn't really looking at the big picture IMO. They are still playing a lot on the counter, giving up a ton of chances in order to try and get good chances of their own; it seems more like just relying on better quality (against most sides) to come out on top -- it's not really a recipe for consistency or long-term success.

Truthfully the biggest difference to me in watching them this season under Mourinho, and then under OGS, was that they actually wanted to play. They were running hard and having fun. That's definitely something to give OGS credit for, but I think that would have happened with almost anyone taking over for Mourinho.

I don't understand your argument about schedule.
Mourinho had the same schedule. He coached half the season and thus played half the games, more or less. So had the face the same opponents in the same order (more or less).

OGS will have slightly more games, but I think the difference is in the order of the games, and the 'new manager boost' at just the right timing.

I think the truth of the team's quality lies somewhere in the middle. They're not a lock for top 4 at all currently, but they're not a team that should be 10 points back of 5th either. Earlier in the season people were acting like them not being a lock for the top 4 with their roster was some huge failure, and that they easily had the 3rd best team in England which I didn't, and don't agree with.

 

[hatterson]

Context indeed. Even with the easiest of schedules to work OGS in after Mourinho's falling out they were vastly overperforming -- and not in the 'get the most out of the team' overperforming. They were putting up results that weren't likely, and this regression was always on its way (made worse, as it seems like the players are giving up on OGS already, though that is entirely speculation).

I have no idea how that guy calculates xG, but just looking at the first 3 events (1 miss for each team, 1 goal for United), it's hilariously off.

The first United chance is a completely unmarked volley by Lukaku from about 7 yards out off a corner. Apparently that counted for around .1 xG

The first Palance chance counts for .3 xG despite obviously being a worse chance. He's at a much greater angle and the ball is coming from a much tougher direction and given how the play developed, De Gea had the post covered.

Then Lukaku's goal also seems to count for about .1 xG He's shooting from the top of the box near the edge of the D, and none of the defenders are blocking any of the net.

Then I'll jump forward to Palace's goal. Completely unmarked header from the top of the 6 yard box with the keeper out of position since it was a hard cross. Apparently only worth about .1 xG despite being the clearest chance of the game.

Young's goal is worth about .2 xG, he was in acres of space running into the box and was able to run to the edge of the 6 yard box and crush a shot with basically no pressure. A professional footballer should score more often than not in that position.

Those are just 5 examples I saw quickly and I don't see how they're ranked like they are.

xG is a pretty garbage stat right now, at least the public versions.

Using understat.com as a reference since it's easy and public: In the last 5 years, only 4 times has a big 6 side underperformed their xG stat, Arsenal in 15/16, United in 16/17, and both Liverpool and City slightly this year. Over that timeframe the average a big 6 side has out performed their xG stat is by 5.5 goals.

Seems pretty clear to me that something is missing if the best teams frequently outperform an expectation.

League wide this is the first year that teams have outperformed their xG stat, and by a total of 16 goals. The past 4 years, the PL has cumulatively underperformed it's xG stat (or outperformed it's xGA stat) by 160 goals cumulatively. Seems more likely the stat is poorly constructed than that defenses were getting lucky for 4 straight years league wide (in one year by a whopping 80 goals)

 

[Corto]

I wonder how people can say that with a straight face and then see that a newbie coach, with basically zero high level coaching experience can get this same roster to perform MUCH better with MUCH better results.

They lucked into an unlikely win vs PSG and started off strong against some rather pedestrian opposition. They looked good doing it, don't get me wrong.
Ever since though, they've plummeted, lost points all over the place and looked absolutely dire in basically every game.
I think a LOT of United fans are already regretting the OGS permanent signing, and IMO they're in for another rough few years before they could become a desirable destination for elite players.

Mou had worn out his welcome at the end, but the dude won 3 trophies in 2.5 years at United, which is 3 more than Poch and Klopp combined.
And he finished 2nd, ahead of both Poch and Klopp last season with a seriously flawed and rather mediocre squad.

IMO his downfall is recruiting (whether it's wrong targets or he didn't get the targets he wanted, we don't know), but most of his signings were just "players" - you never got the sense it was the one targeted player for a role they were missing.
Pep and Klopp, on the other hand, seem to make every signing with long-term planning and with a certain goal in mind.

 

[Il Mediano]

IMO his downfall is recruiting

Mourinho's biggest downfall is his inability to connect with the modern player, or those that don't fit a very specific mentality. He's admitted as much.

I know United won without him, but once Zlatan got hurt/left , that was really the beginning of the end for Mourinho in Manchester. He lost his biggest supporter/confidant in the dressing room. All the young players looked up to him, and he set the tone and reinforced the message/philosophy.

When the leadership role transitioned to Pogba it was never going to work. The relationship was too fractured and Pogba annoyed the living hell out of him. Once you lose the support of your best player, it's pretty difficult to galvanize the rest of the group.

(whether it's wrong targets or he didn't get the targets he wanted, we don't know),

Nah, we do know. Woodward didn't get him the players he wanted. If you think he only wanted a 3rd choice GK, teenager fullback, and Fred to reinforce his squad after a 2nd place finish (in which he considered a miracle), then I dunno what to tell you.

I don't know how many times I have to say it, but Woodward doesn't know what he's doing and will negatively affect any transfer business for any manager United employ until they bring in a DoF.

I don't think it's recruiting as much as it was just a consequence of the clubs he was at. Once Abramovich left running the club to Marina Granovskaia, he had a significantly harder time getting the players he wanted. And at United, outside of his first transfer window, I don't think he and Woodward ever saw eye-to-eye. Woodward, like so many others, thought the squad was better than it was/is and thought a sufficient amount of money had been invested already. Whether he was right in this assessment is another matter.

Mourinho would still have a lot of pull in a country like Italy and specifically Inter. I'm sure of it.

 

[Live in the Now]

We had Ian Ayre too, so I'm well aware of this Woodward problem.

Nobody at any point is talking about firing Ed Woodward. They are talking about appointing someone below him. He will still be there, Liverpool already did that game with Ian Ayre. Incompetent people like that wind up interfering constantly. It is a disaster.

 

[Il Mediano]

They don't talk about it, because a) it will never happen, and b) he doesn't need to be fired, he just needs to not be their pseudo-DoF. He's proven to be an amazing businessman, but evidently, a horrible football man, which you'd expect when considering his background. It's the Glazers fault for employing him in this fashion.

All of United's problems start with poor ownership. Fans can call for player's and manager's heads all they want, but they should be pointing their finger at the Glazers first and foremost.

I would never condone Gooner behavior towards a manager, but if they don't hire a bloody DoF and let him do his job/create a proper front office, maybe they should start flying planes over Old Trafford for the Glazers.

There is no reason at all that the Glazers shouldn't have recognized how poorly they've constructed their football operations by now. They either have blind faith in Woodward to do everything, or they just don't give a ****. They're paying Sanchez like 25 million per goal, you'd think they'd care about burning piles of cash at least.

 

[Live in the Now]

He should be sacked. He will be left as the chief executive and will have the ability to interfere, which will happen as he already had those powers and won’t willingly concede them. There are plenty of people who can run a business but not many who can make a good football team. His being there is an obstacle to who they can hire in the first place.

He was already giving new contracts out while there wasn't a permanent manager, giving a future manager no say in the matter. He should be binned.

 

[Il Mediano]

 

[Il Mediano]

He should be sacked. He will be left as the chief executive and will have the ability to interfere, which will happen as he already had those powers and won’t willingly concede them. There are plenty of people who can run a business but not many who can make a good football team. His being there is an obstacle to who they can hire in the first place.

He was already giving new contracts out while there wasn't a permanent manager, giving a future manager no say in the matter. He should be binned.

Or you could keep an extremely good businessman, and you know, just tell him to run the business aspect of the club.

If he refuses, then you can remove him. But, "binning" an asset like that because you put him in a position to fail would just be more incompetence from the Glazers. Do some research on what he's done for them financially , and the influence he had in their takeover of United in the first place. He's very, very good at what he's been trained to do.

 

[Live in the Now]

He’s not an asset. We’re talking about Manchester United, yes? If they can’t replace him there are far greater problems. There would be a line out the door for that job and there’s now a time when his presence is costing the club revenue. I don’t see the point anymore.

By all means keep him, but absolutely nobody qualified would agree to work with him because he is entrenched above everyone else. He needs to leave, but failing that, the club will continue to be where it is now and I’d be pleased.


The way it is now, because it’s too late to make sweeping changes, Woodward will have a hand in every transfer this summer.

 

[Il Mediano]

Yes, "we're talking about United". Drop the act, please.

If you think there's just a huge line of people who can do what Woodward has done for the club off the pitch, then you're completely out of your depth. The revenue they lost from missing out on CL this season pales in comparison to the revenue deals he's accrued in his time there. If you were to dig into the minutiae of the financial aspect of football, I can assure you wouldn't hold that opinion.

This covers a small portion:


Now, if you want to keep this to football, I'm more than willing, but to suggest he's not an asset of any sort is pure ignorance - I'm sorry.

Woodward began being an issue when he absorbed David Gill's role. We have no idea if after a proper football structure is put in place, he'd be this meddling snake you're painting. Nor do we know if his mere presence would prevent the hiring of competent football people. I dunno if you're just projecting your feelings over Ian Ayre, but these are pretty big leaps.

 

[Corto]

If you think there's just a huge line of people who can do what Woodward has done for the club off the pitch, then you're completely out of your depth. The revenue they lost from missing out on CL this season pales in comparison to the revenue deals he's accrued in his time there. If you were to dig into the minutiae of the financial aspect of football, I can assure you wouldn't hold that opinion.

I agree, but it's a dangerous path to tread, if they keep losing pace and dropping off the super clubs level, the more casual fans will lose interest.
Revenue will go down, contracts will be renewed for smaller fees and prices, etc.

If DDG and Pogba leave they will have exactly zero world class players on their roster. Not only that, but elite players won't come to United anymore. The gap between them and City/Liverpool/Spurs will only get bigger.

How long until the off-pitch profits start to drop? Can't be too long IMO, the interest among the casual fans was rekindled with Mourinho/Pogba, but with this mediocre lineup and no marquee manager there, I'm not sure how long it will last.

 

[East Coast Bias]

He’s not an asset. We’re talking about Manchester United, yes? If they can’t replace him there are far greater problems. There would be a line out the door for that job and there’s now a time when his presence is costing the club revenue. I don’t see the point anymore.

By all means keep him, but absolutely nobody qualified would agree to work with him because he is entrenched above everyone else. He needs to leave, but failing that, the club will continue to be where it is now and I’d be pleased.


The way it is now, because it’s too late to make sweeping changes, Woodward will have a hand in every transfer this summer.

He’s the owners asset tho. He was a M&A banker who helped them buy the club. He’s helped them structure the club so it’s all cash and no liability for them. He nails the sponsorship deals. He brings in more revenue than any club in England. He’s an asset to them.

I’m not sure they remotely care about anything else. They have won it all as owners. Now they just print money keeping a competitive team.

 

[Il Mediano]

I agree, but it's a dangerous path to tread, if they keep losing pace and dropping off the super clubs level, the more casual fans will lose interest.
Revenue will go down, contracts will be renewed for smaller fees and prices, etc.

If DDG and Pogba leave they will have exactly zero world class players on their roster. Not only that, but elite players won't come to United anymore. The gap between them and City/Liverpool/Spurs will only get bigger.

How long until the off-pitch profits start to drop? Can't be too long IMO, the interest among the casual fans was rekindled with Mourinho/Pogba, but with this mediocre lineup and no marquee manager there, I'm not sure how long it will last.

They haven't won anything substantial for 7 years, and have fluctuated between 1st and 2nd in terms of revenue in world football during that time. The global audience is only continuing to grow as they expand their reach. Just from anecdotal evidence alone, I live in Asia and travel all around it, and I see the United crest more than any other. The brand is outta control huge.

Of course, you're right though, winning and CL exposure/revenue is important for maintaining the brand and I suspect that's why we're finally hearing rumblings about them bringing in a DoF. Apparently, even the money-sucking Glazers are concerned enough at this point. They have a plan to flip the club once their debts are paid, and no CL slows that process down, along with the maximizing the valuation of the club.

That being said, I think they're clearly in a secure enough position to properly rebuild if they so choose. There comes a point in time when you have to consider the bigger picture. Whether or not that big picture involves taking the necessary steps to become genuine title contenders again is the crux of the matter. Top 4 might just be all they truly care about and require in their plan to eventually sell the club.

 

[Il Mediano]

 

[Gecklund]

If the rumors of United going for PL players is true, I give Leicester a 200M-250M check and take Ndidi, Maddison, Periera, Maguire, and Chilwell

Rashford-Martial
Maddison
Pogba-Ndidi-Fred/Herrera/McTominay
Shaw-Lindelof-Maguire-Pereira

We then actually have depth too with Greenwood, Gomes, Andreas, whichever mids aren’t starting, Matic, Dalot, Bailly, Chilwell.

 

[Live in the Now]

Ndidi is not particularly good IMO. Physicality is one thing but he doesn't have the technical ability to play for a big team.

 

[YNWA14]

Ndidi is not particularly good IMO. Physicality is one thing but he doesn't have the technical ability to play for a big team.

I actually think Hamza Choudhury looks like a big player for them moving forward, and is better technically than Ndidi.

 

[Chimaera]

Someone is going to raid Leicester, but I wouldn't expect to see that many players go. Rodgers wouldn't have taken the job if he knew that 5-6 of his best players were going to walk in his first window.

 

[Live in the Now]

I don’t think that many players should go either. Pereira is ready to play for a top team and maybe Maguire too. The rest aren’t there yet.

 

[Chimaera]

Being ready and going are different things as you know.

They’re not a poor club and they’ve sold players that made them a hefty profit.

I think Maguire goes because he’s English and they could triple their money (at least) but I think that’s a decision the club will have probably already agreed to and Rodgers will want money to spend.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

What will happen to Man Utd after this season???