How many elite years does Crosby have left

[Luigi Lemieux]

Sakic scored 100 points at age 38, St Louis won the art ross at age 37. I can see Crosby being elite well into his 30s. He has already shown incredible consistency and work ethic throughout his career. Imo he's going to be a ppg player until he's 37, which is when his contract ends. It's even possible he retires while he's still a ppg guy.

 

[DickSmehlik]

He's finished tied for 12th and tied for 13th in points per game in 2 of the 3 last seasons.

Hasn't been a point per game player in the last 2 post-seasons.

I think his elite days are behind him, especially with all of the up and coming young talent.

 

[Price is Wright]

All depends on injuries. At worst he might be Peter Forsberg where he clearly is still elite but his body isn't working. The very best players don't have a dramatic drop unless they go way beyond their means, like Guy Lafleur in the 90s or Messier's final New York years, but even then both guys were still productive. I think Crosby will continue being a point per game player until his body gives out.

 

[kk87]

He'll lose a step as he gets older, but he's too good at everything else to decline at the rate most players do. His vision, passing ability, agility, board play, defensive awareness, etc will be among the best of the best for at least 5 years, I think - couple that with his unparalleled work ethic, and he should be an elite top line centre for another half decade at least.

 

[Mulletman]

It's even possible he retires while he's still a ppg guy.

Highly unlikely. To my knowledge only Bossy and Beliveau retired while being point per game in their last season. Most good players have a few seasons at the end were they fall below point per game.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Well I did make it clear that it was the best case scenario, were Crosby would play well into his 40s relatively healthy with NHL maintaining it's high scoring environment. Another thing helping Crosby is if he wants to finish high on the all time points list. Crosby might want to pass Jagr and his 1921 points for sencond place in points and Francis and his 1249 assists for 2nd place in assists. If Crosby can pass Jagr's 1921 points early in the season and have a relative good season, he might go for one last season to break 2000 points just so he can make history.

This upcomming season will show how hungry Crosby is when it comes to milestones. He's 38 goals away from hitting 500 career goals. Crosby has only hit 38 goals one time in the last 10 seasons. If Crosby can score 38 goals this season it shows that he can elevate his game when it comes to hunting milestones. If Crosby reaching 500 career goals this season shows that he has the hunger needed for those big milestones and his chance of hitting 2000 career points becomes a lot more likely.

Crosby will not pass Jagr's points totals. I see him and OVI fighting for 10th all time in points when their careers are done.

 

[Mulletman]

Crosby will not pass Jagr's points totals. I see him and OVI fighting for 10th all time in points when their careers are done.

Dude you only need 1591 points for 10th place. That's like Crosby having only 30 point seasons for the next 10 years. No way that's going to happen...

 

[Video Nasty]

Dude you only need 1591 points for 10th place. That's like Crosby having only 30 point seasons for the next 10 years. No way that's going to happen...

His point pretty much stands. If Crosby and Ovechkin both pass Esposito's 1590, there's only room for 1 of them to be at the number 10 spot until/if/when they both pass Sakic's 1641.

And that doesn't even factor in Thornton hanging around long enough to potentially pass Esposito first. He's only 82 points away which could be done in as little as 2 full seasons.

From that point on in either scenario, they rotate between #9 and #10 for the rest of their careers, which I think qualifies as the battle for 10th place (to stay out of it or solidify against the next potential 1600+ point scorer McDavid) because Mario's 1723 is probably out of at least Ovechkin's reach.

 

[Regal]

He's finished tied for 12th and tied for 13th in points per game in 2 of the 3 last seasons.

Hasn't been a point per game player in the last 2 post-seasons.

I think his elite days are behind him, especially with all of the up and coming young talent.

Seems like a pretty high standard definition of elite when he's tied for 7th in PPG over those 3 years.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

His point pretty much stands. If Crosby and Ovechkin both pass Esposito's 1590, there's only room for 1 of them to be at the number 10 spot until/if/when they both pass Sakic's 1641.

And that doesn't even factor in Thornton hanging around long enough to potentially pass Esposito first. He's only 82 points away which could be done in as little as 2 full seasons.

From that point on in either scenario, they rotate between #9 and #10 for the rest of their careers because Mario's 1723 is probably out of at least Ovechkin's reach.

Unless Crosby retires at age 38, barring serious injury where he misses 20+ games each season, I think it's almost a guarantee he passes Sakic's totals. Crosby needs 379 points to pass Sakic, so even averaging 80 points per year over the next 5 seasons, that's 400 points.

The issue might be expecting that average, but I figure for the next couple of seasons he'll produce more than 80 points to offset any seasons where he dips below 80.

That would take him to age 38.

If he averaged 70 points per year over the next 5 seasons, he'd need to return for a 6th season since he'd be around 30 points shy. So even then, barring some injury or him deciding to retire at 38 years old, he should do it.

The other factor we don't know about besides injury is how much COVID will continue to affect the NHL schedule. All the above changes if we're constantly having to have shortened seasons like this past one and like we're going to have when the new season begins.

 

[kirkm]

4

 

[Video Nasty]

Unless Crosby retires at age 38, barring serious injury where he misses 20+ games each season, I think it's almost a guarantee he passes Sakic's totals. Crosby needs 379 points to pass Sakic, so even averaging 80 points per year over the next 5 seasons, that's 400 points.

The issue might be expecting that average, but I figure for the next couple of seasons he'll produce more than 80 points to offset any seasons where he dips below 80.

That would take him to age 38.

If he averaged 70 points per year over the next 5 seasons, he'd need to return for a 6th season since he'd be around 30 points shy. So even then, barring some injury or him deciding to retire at 38 years old, he should do it.

The other factor we don't know about besides injury is how much COVID will continue to affect the NHL schedule. All the above changes if we're constantly having to have shortened seasons like this past one and like we're going to have when the new season begins.

I didn't say he (or Ovechkin couldn't do it). I think they can both pass Sakic with a relatively uninterrupted natural aging out of the rest of their careers. Once these players hit 35+ (Ovechkin is now there), I'm very wary expecting these players to play another 5 seasons. They could very well both be retired after the 2024-2025 season.

I felt pretty good about Sakic sitting at 1589 points after his 100 point season and back then I would have picked more than 59 total games and 52 total points if I was told he would play two more seasons. It wouldn't have been out of the question to expect him to pick up 135 points in 2 seasons to pass Mario.

Lemieux is firmly out of the question for me for Crosby and Ovechkin. Crosby has an outside shot. I think Ovechkin has no shot.

Nothing is a guarantee though.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Probably a gradual drop off as times go by. Crosby's elite days are behind him but he can most likely still be point per game a few times as it's getting easier to hit point per game in the new NHL. Worst case scenario for Crosby he retires with a little bit more than 1600 points, Best case scenario he retires with a little over 2000 points.

Second in mvp voting in 18-19

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Until the Pens suck and he's going to mentor the first overall pick made by the Pens that turns out to be the next Mario Lemieux/Sidney Crosby before they name that phenom the captain of the Penguins.

 

[mouser]

Such an arbitrary designation.

He'll remain an elite player his entire career. He's not going to lose his hockey IQ, vision, or hands (mostly). He's gunna lose some speed and strength toward his final playing years, but he's always going to have those tools that make him an elite player.

Joe Thornton is no longer an elite player, despite many years of being one. Jaromir Jagr was not an elite player for many tail end years of his career. Zdeno Chara hasn’t been an elite player for years as well.

All shoe in first ballot hall of famers. At some point Crosby will cross the same line that so many other players have as they age.

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

42.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Probably four maybe five more. His best asset has always been his brain(somewhat ironically his biggest liability as well). You don't tend to lose that as quickly as other skills.

Got some tough miles on him tho, another major injury and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him call it quits.

 

[SensFactor]

i'd say he will show considerable decline after 35. He has a lot of miles on that body.

 

[DearDiary]

Probably four maybe five more. His best asset has always been his brain(somewhat ironically his biggest liability as well). You don't tend to lose that as quickly as other skills.

Got some tough miles on him tho, another major injury and I wouldn't be too surprised to see him call it quits.

How has his brain been his biggest liability? I hope you're not referring to his misdiagnosed concussion from Steckel which was actually a neck injury.

 

[Varan]

I'd give him max 4 more seasons of high level play (slight decrease as the years pass but nothing noticeable) until he really falls off out of the top-15 of players. His game is not predicated on athleticism/speed/skating which will help him age gracefully (if he isn't already).

It's kind of sad thinking about the end for this generation of players like Sid/OV/Malkin. We've come to know them as these beasts and now they're not going to resemble their old selves soon enough.

Everyone has their final days but it just sucks to know that it's coming sooner rather than later.

 

[saska sault]

Tough to say. 1 year contract for 1 or 2 years and go to a team with a chance to win.

If he still got like 50 points at 38 let's say then I could see a 5 million 1 year deal.

I don't see Crosby leaving the Penguins. He has his cups, his legacy, hes done it all with the Pens why would you leave? I dont see him as a ring chaser later in his career, he has no need to. He has played on 2 teams since he was 15?

Would be like Yzerman or Lidstrom leaving the Wings to chase another ring..

 

[Bounces R Way]

How has his brain been his biggest liability? I hope you're not referring to his misdiagnosed concussion from Steckel which was actually a neck injury.

He's had 4 diagnosed concussions. Even if it's really just three that's still quite a lot and more than is ideal for a 33 year old athlete.

 

[tony d]

Still the best player in the league IMO. Another 4-5 years at least for elite status for Crosby IMO.

 

[BostonBruins11]

I could easily see him becoming a 3rd/2nd line elite shut down C in 3-5 years when he slows down.
He's got the IQ fore it

He'll play as long as he wants to.

 

[Video Nasty]

I'd give him max 4 more seasons of high level play (slight decrease as the years pass but nothing noticeable) until he really falls off out of the top-15 of players. His game is not predicated on athleticism/speed/skating which will help him age gracefully (if he isn't already).

It's kind of sad thinking about the end for this generation of players like Sid/OV/Malkin. We've come to know them as these beasts and now they're not going to resemble their old selves soon enough.

Everyone has their final days but it just sucks to know that it's coming sooner rather than later.

Different sport and position, but as a Patriots fan, I watched Brady defy age expectations at his position year in and year out, despite readying myself for the inevitable downfall back in like 2013. He and the team won another 3 SB's and went to 4 in that time frame. He was still a good QB during last season and as well as this season with the Bucs.

Maybe Crosby makes up for some of those games he missed earlier in his career by playing at a level higher than some, including myself expect, into his 40s. He's been much more healthy than anyone could have expected since the start of the 2013-2014 season.