How many elite years does Crosby have left

[The Moose is Loose]

I think he's got 3 years before going below PPG. I think he is done being a top 5 player now though.

Even up till around 40 he could still be a 1st line center.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

I think a more interesting question is if Crosby signs another contract after this and what the hit and term will be.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I think a more interesting question is if Crosby signs another contract after this and what the hit and term will be.

Tough to say. 1 year contract for 1 or 2 years and go to a team with a chance to win.

If he still got like 50 points at 38 let's say then I could see a 5 million 1 year deal.

 

[Kranix]

What do the expected GF say?

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Five....maybe

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Elite? What's considered elite? Top 10 in scoring? Maybe one more year, but highly doubtful. Too many good young players in the league now.

Age catches up to all players. Significant points drop occur around age 34-35 so perhaps he can maintain a point per game for a season or two but then the inevitable drop off will occur.

 

[Oddbob]

I don't think he is elite anymore. Still very good, but not elite!

 

[Rodgerwilco]

Such an arbitrary designation.

He'll remain an elite player his entire career. He's not going to lose his hockey IQ, vision, or hands (mostly). He's gunna lose some speed and strength toward his final playing years, but he's always going to have those tools that make him an elite player.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

I think a more interesting question is if Crosby signs another contract after this and what the hit and term will be.

Tough to say. 1 year contract for 1 or 2 years and go to a team with a chance to win.

If he still got like 50 points at 38 let's say then I could see a 5 million 1 year deal.

I don't think he's going to play anywhere besides Pittsburgh in his career. I don't peg him as the type of guy who's going to start chasing cups.

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

I was surprised to learn he hasn't played 1000 regular season games yet. Even with his history of injuries, I assumed he had eclipsed that mark by now.

 

[A1LeafNation]

-1

 

[Mulletman]

There is almost no case where he retires with over 2,000 points.

Here are his point finishes relative to NHL history of 'x' aged seasons:

30 year old	27th
31 year old	11th
32 year old	19th (points/gp)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I believe Crosby will definitely age great, but here are projections if he finishes every single one of his next seasons as the most, 3rd most, 5th most, or 10th most points for each 'x' aged season from 33 onwards

	Best 'x' aged	3rd best	5th best	10th best
Current	1,263	1,263	1,263	1,263
33	126	103	96	90
34	102	96	94	87
35	116	99	90	82
36	94	90	83	79
37	100	91	82	70
38	82	76	72	63
39	82	78	76	65
40	103	80	62	42
Total after 40 year old season	2,068	1,976	1,918	1,841
41	71	66	43	32
42	52	47	43	17
43	66	11	6	-
	2,257	2,100	2,010	1,890

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This assumes he stay healthy and plays more or less max games every year going forward (most likely not happening). There's just no reasonable expectation to justify 2,000 points.

Well I did make it clear that it was the best case scenario, were Crosby would play well into his 40s relatively healthy with NHL maintaining it's high scoring environment. Another thing helping Crosby is if he wants to finish high on the all time points list. Crosby might want to pass Jagr and his 1921 points for sencond place in points and Francis and his 1249 assists for 2nd place in assists. If Crosby can pass Jagr's 1921 points early in the season and have a relative good season, he might go for one last season to break 2000 points just so he can make history.

This upcomming season will show how hungry Crosby is when it comes to milestones. He's 38 goals away from hitting 500 career goals. Crosby has only hit 38 goals one time in the last 10 seasons. If Crosby can score 38 goals this season it shows that he can elevate his game when it comes to hunting milestones. If Crosby reaching 500 career goals this season shows that he has the hunger needed for those big milestones and his chance of hitting 2000 career points becomes a lot more likely.

 

[57special]

The NHL will have a very difficult season coming up, full of unknowns, some of them dangerous. I think Sid needs to take it off, get his body fully healed, his mind clear, and ready to go for the final few chapters in a storied career, starting the next full season in 21-22.

Signed,
A Wild Fan

 

[bobholly39]

There is almost no case where he retires with over 2,000 points.

Here are his point finishes relative to NHL history of 'x' aged seasons:

30 year old	27th
31 year old	11th
32 year old	19th (points/gp)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I believe Crosby will definitely age great, but here are projections if he finishes every single one of his next seasons as the most, 3rd most, 5th most, or 10th most points for each 'x' aged season from 33 onwards

	Best 'x' aged	3rd best	5th best	10th best
Current	1,263	1,263	1,263	1,263
33	126	103	96	90
34	102	96	94	87
35	116	99	90	82
36	94	90	83	79
37	100	91	82	70
38	82	76	72	63
39	82	78	76	65
40	103	80	62	42
Total after 40 year old season	2,068	1,976	1,918	1,841
41	71	66	43	32
42	52	47	43	17
43	66	11	6	-
	2,257	2,100	2,010	1,890

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This assumes he stay healthy and plays more or less max games every year going forward (most likely not happening). There's just no reasonable expectation to justify 2,000 points.

Awesome data, thanks for posting.

To be honest though - I think Crosby is precisely the type of player who could end up looking absolutely great here. He's barely declined at all from his prime - one of the most consistent primes ever. I think that bodes very well for continued longevity at a high level.

Obviously it's possible he has an unexpected steep decline, and you never know how injuries or his decision to retire early could play-in. But I could see him play till ~40 and remain quite competent till then. And Crosby won't be #1 in all of those years obviously - but he probably could end up close to #1 most years, since consistency has always been his strength.

I know a lot of things have to go right - but I've always felt that despite all the injuries and time missed - #2 all time 1921 points by Jagr isn't completely out of reach to him.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

He'll be a Kobe, Brady, Rodgers type who just dominates until he just cant anymore

 

[jcs0218]

2 more seasons of being a top ten player and one more cup in him. Probably as a final season rental to go for it on a contender where he becomes a big contributor and has a brilliant last flurry of elite play in the playoffs as a third line shut down guy and still a number one option on the PP to lead the Philadelphia Flyers to a surprise Stanley cup victory as a 6th seed in the conference.

I would be very surprised if he ever leaves the Penguins.

The only way I could see that happening is if he was chasing his 1st Stanley Cup (like a Bourque situation), but that isn't the case with Crosby.

 

[jcs0218]

I’d like to see him Captain the Canadian Olympic team one more time as well

2022

Unless he is injured, he will be the captain of the 2022 Canadian Olympic Team. No doubt at all about that.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Depends on what the definition of "elite" is. Chances are he'll still be in the 90+ point pace range for the next couple of seasons, and probably hover around a point per game into his late 30s.

 

[Riseonfire]

Elite as in 'season end Elite numbers' then probably 2..maybe 3. Maybe 0?

 

[Regal]

As a OV fan, I disagree with this. The man was 10th in points, 7th in assists, and 9th in the Selke voting. He came into the year noted by many as the Best or second best in the world (back-to-back Smythes and titles). He also had 21 in 12 games in the playoffs.

To say that he wasn't even top-10, is just ludicrous tbh. At worst, he was top-5.

Like MJ, I wouldn't say he was a top 10 player that season based on actual results. Though that season needs to be put in the context of it's underlying numbers. Crosby played at an elite level, with better CF%, xGF%, etc than his 18-19 season, but suffered from an abnormally low on-ice shooting percentage that season (6.1%, when he's never been under 8.2% in another season). I think it highlights the difference between potential and results. Crosby probably has the potential to be a top 10 player for another 2 or 3 seasons, but whether he does or not is up to injuries, variance, etc

 

[Varan]

You are talking about reputation. I am talking about actual results (which I think is what this thread was asking). Crosby's results in 17-18 were not top 10.

I agree that his reputation was.

Even though if you believe his RS wasn’t top-10, his post season was. Take into account both seasons and he’s easily top-10.

His Hart voting wasn’t that great because Malkin went MVP mode and Kessel finished 7th in scoring. So when you have 3 players in the top-10 in scoring, voting is going to hurt all three players. That’s just speaks to the level of talent on their team.

 

[Hockeyholic]

Better question is did he live up to the predraft hype? I think he did.

 

[Varan]

Like MJ, I wouldn't say he was a top 10 player that season based on actual results. Though that season needs to be put in the context of it's underlying numbers. Crosby played at an elite level, with better CF%, xGF%, etc than his 18-19 season, but suffered from an abnormally low on-ice shooting percentage that season (6.1%, when he's never been under 8.2% in another season). I think it highlights the difference between potential and results. Crosby probably has the potential to be a top 10 player for another 2 or 3 seasons, but whether he does or not is up to injuries, variance, etc

Ive stated before in this thread that his post-season made up for his RS. We have to take into account both seasons.

Crosby outscored his MVP teammate and Kessel combined in the playoffs 21-17. He outscored Kucherov who played a whole other round. He was tied for 5th in scoring for the playoffs despite playing 12 fewer games than Kuzy and OV. He was better than MacKinnon in the playoffs as well. He was also better than Giroux and Hall (who was MVP) in the playoffs.

He made up for it in the playoffs by clearly being a top-3 player

 

[OmazingGrace]

Que up #68. I'm
sure Sid still has a couple cups left to win.

 

[Alex Jones]

Vision isn't going anywhere, and I don't doubt his commitment to staying in shape. Question is whether years of playing like an ultra-skilled grinder has left a lot of extra mileage on his body.

Yea he does take a lot of contact and play like a grinder, but at the same time he's avoided the big injury (to everywhere but his brain).