How long until Mcdavid takes over league lead in points?

[firstemperor]

McDavid plays 21:30 a game and that's where his ice-time will most likely settle this year too. That's not six minutes more than any relevant player.

Here are the 5vs5 p/60 leaders since 15/16, min 1500 min

1. McDavid 3.00/60
2. Matthews 2.60/60
3. Malkin 2.47/60
4. Marchand 2.44/60
5. Scheifele 2.39/60
6. Kane 2.35/60
7.Kuznetsov 2.34/60
8. Pastrnak 2.32/60
9. Kucherov 2.32/60
10. Gaudreau 2.31/60

Scoring efficiency at 5vs5 there is McDavid and then there is the pack. And that is while playing more taxing minutes than others.

It's quite a bit more in terms of absolute numbers, particularly since you posted /60 numbers.

Except you always fail to mention that mcdavids extra ice is largely due to him being a 1st line pker.

The disparity is still huge, I didn't purposely ignore this facet. Even an extra 2 minutes more, per game, over his competitors, is ~10% more icetime, per game. This is a conservative estimate as well.

People forget that you are judging McDavid's, raw, absolute point totals. Then bring up per/60 numbers and ratios on a per game basis like they are the same metric. They aren't.

As a generality, one is absolute, and one is relative.

 

[Discordia]

Compar points per 60 for EV and PP. That answers your question.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If you want to see game planning watch the Oilers vs the Sharks. Count the time McDavid is on the ice that Vlasic is not. Over the last 2 years vs SJ McDavid at 5 vs 5 was on the ice for 114 minutes against Vlasic and 33 without him.

McLellan does nothing to try and get McDavid away from tough match-ups so I doubt there is a player in the league that spends more time vs elite defensemen than McDavid.

For the last two years: minutes on vs minutes away for McDavid
1) Vlasic 114-33
2) Braun 107-40
3) Doughty 90-60'
4) Giordano 86-51
5) OEL 82-60
6) Forbort 76-74
7) Edler 72-70
8) Lindholm 70-79
9) Hamilton 68-69
10) Manson 68-69

Next five outside division
1) Pietrangelo 61-35
2) Keith 61-37
3) Trouba 57-19
4) Dumba 49-43
5) Chara 47-16
6) Carlson 47-22
7) Reilly 47-19
8) Ellis 46-40
9) Slavin 45-20
10) Pesce 44-22

For this year:
1) Trouba 14-4
2) Vatanen 14-4
3) Chara 14-3
4) Mueler 14-4
5) Morrissey 13-5
6) McAvoy 12-5
7) Skjei 11-6
8) McQuaid 8-9
9) Brendan Smith 6-11
10 Staal 5-12

The most frequent defensemen that Matthews faced over the last two years were:

1) Ceci 65-51
2) Phaneuf 61-56
3) Slavin 52-27
4) Weber 50-39
5) Yandle 48-66
6) Ekblad 45-43
7) Karlsson 43-73
8) Pesce 43-35
9) Ericsson 43-33
10) McDonagh 42-44

Outside of the division:
1) Braun 38-20
2) Provorov 38-33
3) Dekeyser 33-57
4) Leddy 33-56
5) OEL 32-32
6) M. Green 32-30
7) Josi 31-31
8) Dumoulin 31-34
9) Hamilton 31-28
10) Ellis 30-32

For this year it was
1) John Carlson 10-6
2) Miro Heiskanen 10-7
3) Drew Doughty 9-6
4) Michael Kempny 9-7
5) Derek Forbort 8-7
6) Mark Boroweicki 8-8
7) Esa Lindell 7-9
8) Danny Dekeyser 7-6
9) Duncan Keith 7-7
10) Henri Jokiharju 7-8

These numbers show that teams game plan for McDavid much more than for Matthews.

Who else is there to even try to shut down on the Oilers? Of course you put your top guys against McDavid, anyone can shut down the rest of the 3rd liners.

 

[talitintti]

It's quite a bit more in terms of absolute numbers, particularly since you posted /60 numbers.

What baffles is me why doesn't every team play their best forward for 24 minutes a night if that doesn't have any negative effect on production efficiency.

 

[LarKing]

Betting against McDavid is dumb.

 

[TMLeafs17]

If you want to see game planning watch the Oilers vs the Sharks. Count the time McDavid is on the ice that Vlasic is not. Over the last 2 years vs SJ McDavid at 5 vs 5 was on the ice for 114 minutes against Vlasic and 33 without him.

McLellan does nothing to try and get McDavid away from tough match-ups so I doubt there is a player in the league that spends more time vs elite defensemen than McDavid.

For the last two years: minutes on vs minutes away for McDavid
1) Vlasic 114-33
2) Braun 107-40
3) Doughty 90-60'
4) Giordano 86-51
5) OEL 82-60
6) Forbort 76-74
7) Edler 72-70
8) Lindholm 70-79
9) Hamilton 68-69
10) Manson 68-69

Next five outside division
1) Pietrangelo 61-35
2) Keith 61-37
3) Trouba 57-19
4) Dumba 49-43
5) Chara 47-16
6) Carlson 47-22
7) Reilly 47-19
8) Ellis 46-40
9) Slavin 45-20
10) Pesce 44-22

For this year:
1) Trouba 14-4
2) Vatanen 14-4
3) Chara 14-3
4) Mueler 14-4
5) Morrissey 13-5
6) McAvoy 12-5
7) Skjei 11-6
8) McQuaid 8-9
9) Brendan Smith 6-11
10 Staal 5-12

The most frequent defensemen that Matthews faced over the last two years were:

1) Ceci 65-51
2) Phaneuf 61-56
3) Slavin 52-27
4) Weber 50-39
5) Yandle 48-66
6) Ekblad 45-43
7) Karlsson 43-73
8) Pesce 43-35
9) Ericsson 43-33
10) McDonagh 42-44

Outside of the division:
1) Braun 38-20
2) Provorov 38-33
3) Dekeyser 33-57
4) Leddy 33-56
5) OEL 32-32
6) M. Green 32-30
7) Josi 31-31
8) Dumoulin 31-34
9) Hamilton 31-28
10) Ellis 30-32

For this year it was
1) John Carlson 10-6
2) Miro Heiskanen 10-7
3) Drew Doughty 9-6
4) Michael Kempny 9-7
5) Derek Forbort 8-7
6) Mark Boroweicki 8-8
7) Esa Lindell 7-9
8) Danny Dekeyser 7-6
9) Duncan Keith 7-7
10) Henri Jokiharju 7-8

These numbers show that teams game plan for McDavid much more than for Matthews.

That’s all good, thank you for these stats. When teams are matching up against Edmonton it’s a no brainer to put out your best lines against McD. When teams are game planning against the Leafs this year, they’re probably viewing the JT91 line as the top line.

 

[OilCanada92]

When will McDavid and Matthews be even in games played? That's probably when McDavid will catch him.

 

[thadd]

What's crazier?
1 - McDavid is on pace for 184 points.
2 - It wouldn't come close to setting a record for the team or the league.

 

[thadd]

When will McDavid and Matthews be even in games played? That's probably when McDavid will catch him.

McDavid is on pace for 184 points, while Matthews is one pace for 131. Even if the impossible happens and they keep up this pace it doesn't take as long as you think for McDavid to pass him.

 

[Halla]

What baffles is me why doesn't every team play their best forward for 24 minutes a night if that doesn't have any negative effect on production efficiency.

edmonton isnt making the playoffs. other contenders are actually gonna wanna not run their stars into the ground, and further risking injury

its a team sport.

 

[Halla]

McDavid is on pace for 184 points, while Matthews is one pace for 131. Even if the impossible happens and they keep up this pace it doesn't take as long as you think for McDavid to pass him.

mcdavid has played 4 games. he isnt gonna get 180ish just as much as matthews wont get 130ish (although mcd should push 115-120 while matthews 100+)

 

[Halla]

Mcdavid is playing around 20 a game at ES....that is mind boggling. they are basically just tossing him out every 2nd shift

 

[thadd]

mcdavid has played 4 games. he isnt gonna get 180ish just as much as matthews wont get 130ish (although mcd should push 115-120 while matthews 100+)

Yeah I already stated that it's impossible in that message there.

 

[Halla]

Yeah I already stated that it's impossible in that message there.

where did you get 131 from?

matthews with 16pts in 7 games is on pace for 187pts
mcdavid with 9 in 4 games is on pace for 185 pts

what were you saying about not gonna take that long to pass him if they both keep the pace? because if they keep up the pace, mcdavid CANT pass him

 

[Halla]

McDavid is on pace for 184 points, while Matthews is one pace for 131. Even if the impossible happens and they keep up this pace it doesn't take as long as you think for McDavid to pass him.

you need to re check these numbers again.

matthews 2.28 ppg, mcdavid 2.25

 

[KCC]

Mcdavid is playing around 20 a game at ES....that is mind boggling. they are basically just tossing him out every 2nd shift

He likes playing a lot of minutes so tmac gives him the minutes. Not much really needs to be said. If he wants less he’ll ask for it.

 

[Halla]

He likes playing a lot of minutes so tmac gives him the minutes. Not much really needs to be said. If he wants less he’ll ask for it.

friedman mentioned bure about 25 years ago was the only player in recent memory that played over 19 at ES
i dont think its as simple as not much really needs to be said
24-25 mins/night as a forward? in the west?

 

[ricky0034]

friedman mentioned bure about 25 years ago was the only player in recent memory that played over 19 at ES
i dont think its as simple as not much really needs to be said
24-25 mins/night as a forward? in the west?

Kovalchuk spent a couple seasons playing almost 25 mins a night on the Devils before going overseas

 

[koyvoo]

By Halloween

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Just push that rock harder ... your about to remove it ..then you will be able to come out from under that rock ....

Yeah, I mean, I don't know what people are seeing sometimes when they are watching hockey.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

His nearest competitors don't all PK, that's where the bulk of that extra time comes from.

 

[thadd]

you need to re check these numbers again.

matthews 2.28 ppg, mcdavid 2.25

where did you get 131 from?

matthews with 16pts in 7 games is on pace for 187pts
mcdavid with 9 in 4 games is on pace for 185 pts

what were you saying about not gonna take that long to pass him if they both keep the pace? because if they keep up the pace, mcdavid CANT pass him

Sorry, my bad.
I was looking at the stats and I saw 10 and I thought that was how many games Matthews had played already.

 

[thunder16]

That's rich considering your entire fanbase is losing their mind over a five game sample size with Matthews.

We are not losing losing our minds. We are enjoying this. It's the Leaf bashers who have their panties in a knot and losing their SH**. Even if or when McD passes Mathews in scoring would it be a surprise to anyone?

 

[Fourier]

Mcdavid is playing around 20 a game at ES....that is mind boggling. they are basically just tossing him out every 2nd shift

This is wrong! McDavid is actually the second forward on the team in shifts per game behind RNH and is 33rd right now amongst forwards. He is getting on average less than 2 shifts per game more than Draisaitl and only 5 more per game than Strome who is third line center. In fact Matthews averages slightly more shifts per game than McDavid right now (24.4 vs 24.3).

This year McDavid's shifts have been longer, often because he has control of the puck when the rest of the line changes. That is not necessarily helpful for scoring as that extended time is probably far less productive than the early part of a shift where he is fresh. Matthews typical shift is 45 sec vs 58 for McDavid. But McDavid also pk's which means that Matthews has more shifts is situations where you would expect points.

 

[Fourier]

What baffles is me why doesn't every team play their best forward for 24 minutes a night if that doesn't have any negative effect on production efficiency.

Exactly. Points are not a linear function of TOI by any stretch. If they were the best strategy would be to never have McDavid come off the ice.

So far this year McDavid's shifts have been about 13 seconds longer than Matthew's but Matthews has about 2 more shifts per game at ES or on the pp than McDavid does. Which advantage means more? The extra time where McDavid is tired and his line mates are changing or the 2 extra shifts where and his line mates are fresh? Pick your poison.