How long until Mcdavid takes over league lead in points?

[McFlash97]

McDavid will not be anywhere near the top in goals or points this year. Book it.

Just push that rock harder ... your about to remove it ..then you will be able to come out from under that rock ....

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Can't really blame them, Matthews had an incredible start. If he scores 50 -60 goals and is within 15 point of McD it's not a stupid argument.

Agreed. An incredible first 7 games.
If he can stay in the top 3 scorers and is within a point then it’s a fair argument. With over 90% of the season to go though it’s far far too early.

 

[firstemperor]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

McDavid is not better than Matthews.

Filled in the blank for you.

Try watching the players on the other teams once in a while. Some of your conclusions are just plain embarrassing.

 

[Volica]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

Let's spin it back.

Probably around the 10-15 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors have better linemates and teams around him. Those extra 2-3 talrents players will add up points over time.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

lmao, of course

 

[firstemperor]

Let's spin it back.

Probably around the 10-15 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors have better linemates and teams around him. Those extra 2-3 talrents players will add up points over time.

RNH is no slouch. Some competitors debatably have a bit more talent than him, some don't. I still, personally, weigh the extra 3-6 minutes per game more than the assumed talent difference.

Also, having a better team is mutually exclusive, more or less, to absolute point totals. In fact, you could easily argue the opposite- that it's harder to produce on a good team, as teams game-plan more heavily around these teams.

If team success was a viable metric, all this acts is as a deterrent to McDavid's value, not a positive. Personally, I don't buy that argument. It's a team game, but just giving some food for thought since you brought it up.

 

[Volica]

RNH is no slouch. Some competitors debatably have a bit more talent than him, some don't. I still, personally, weigh the extra 3-6 minutes per game more than the assumed talent difference.

Also, having a better team is mutually exclusive, more or less, to absolute point totals. In fact, you could easily argue the opposite- that it's harder to produce on a good team, as teams game-plan more heavily around these teams.

If team success was a viable metric, all this acts is as a deterrent to McDavid's value, not a positive. Personally, I don't buy that argument. It's a team game, but just giving some food for thought since you brought it up.

Just curious; because this is false, but in the top 6 point per game producers right now on forward:

Auston Matthews
Connor McDavid
Patrice Bergeron
Brad Marchand
Evgeni Malkin
Evgeny Kuznetsov

Which one exactly has weaker linemates/teammates than McDavid do?

Also, minutes usage to points also aren't a linear correlation. I'd more comfortable saying:
If Player X has an elite linemate, he will produce at a higher level.
If Player Y plays more minutes, there's no guarantee his play improves across the board.

Essentially McDavid gets Nugent Hopkins, while no slouch, is a career 40-55 point player. And he gets Draisaitl on the powerplay; the only place Leon has been able to make a difference this year.

 

[firstemperor]

Also, minutes usage to points also aren't a linear correlation. I'd more comfortable saying:
If Player X has an elite linemate, he will produce at a higher level.
If Player Y plays more minutes, there's no guarantee his play improves across the board.

Essentially McDavid gets Nugent Hopkins, while no slouch, is a career 40-55 point player. And he gets Draisaitl on the powerplay; the only place Leon has been able to make a difference this year.

The minutes:points curve won't be linear, but it's still a positive correlation, undoubtedly.

As for which players might debatably play with worst talent, it would be ingenious to argue this based on this season- as McDavid has played with Draisaitl in the recent past. He's also played with Lucic, and as bad as he may or may not be today (which may have as much to do with contract than his play), was an undisputed (at worst), top 6 caliber forward before Edmonton.

If we're talking based on some historical narrative, we could easily point to Crosby or Tavares, who have both played with guys who have built careers and have never replicated success away from them (guys like Moulson, Colby Armstrong, Dupuis, Okposo, Paranteau). List goes on.

 

[Volica]

The minutes:points curve won't be linear, but it's still a positive correlation, undoubtedly.

As for which players might debatably play with worst talent, it would be ingenious to argue this based on this season- as McDavid has played with Draisaitl in the recent past. He's also played with Lucic, and as bad as he may or may not be today (which may have as much to do with contract than his play), was an undisputed (at worst), top 6 caliber forward before Edmonton.

If we're talking based on some historical narrative, we could easily point to Crosby or Tavares, who have both played with guys who have built careers and have never replicated success away from them (guys like Moulson, Colby Armstrong, Dupuis, Okposo, Paranteau). List goes on.

You are pulling at straws at this time.
Looking at Milan Lucic and RNH as teammates to argue a point (Unless the point was how could McDavid produce more) is pretty lackadaisical.

McDavid plays 22-25 minutes a night, because he is forced to. His team has no other option, and he eats those minutes up and produces at a high level as is. If Edmonton had a competent roster, I could see his minutes coming down to 20ish, and his points staying steady. He'd get better matchups, he'd have a deadlier PP. The guy's undoubtedly the most talented player in the world, he's playing at a speed two times faster than anyone else in the world right now. I've never seen anyone gain so much speed while handling the puck.

Also, Crosby had Malkin to take burden away from him.
Tavares is a player that never really had significantly support, behind him and produced around. That being said, if he puts up a career points year, this year, does that change your tune. I've read all summer how Tavares will easily be a 90 point player in Toronto because he has better linemates than he's ever had; can McDavid also not get that benefit?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

Sucking and blowing at the same time again. Apparently it’s possible to argue that the Leafs are an offensive juggernaut and still make excuses for Matthews.

 

[jbobell98]

Probably around the 30-40 game mark. The problem is his biggest competitors don't get nearly as much ice time as him. Those extra ~3-6 minutes per game will add up over time.

Especially since he plays half of those extra minutes on the pk while matthews plays a whopping 0

 

[firstemperor]

You are pulling at straws at this time.
Looking at Milan Lucic and RNH as teammates to argue a point (Unless the point was how could McDavid produce more) is pretty lackadaisical.

McDavid plays 22-25 minutes a night, because he is forced to. His team has no other option, and he eats those minutes up and produces at a high level as is. If Edmonton had a competent roster, I could see his minutes coming down to 20ish, and his points staying steady. He'd get better matchups, he'd have a deadlier PP. The guy's undoubtedly the most talented player in the world, he's playing at a speed two times faster than anyone else in the world right now. I've never seen anyone gain so much speed while handling the puck.

Also, Crosby had Malkin to take burden away from him.
Tavares is a player that never really had significantly support, behind him and produced around. That being said, if he puts up a career points year, this year, does that change your tune. I've read all summer how Tavares will easily be a 90 point player in Toronto because he has better linemates than he's ever had; can McDavid also not get that benefit?

I don't see how pointing to Lucic and Draisaitl is any less favourable, then you pointing out RNH as a 40-50 point guy over a 4 game sample size. In my opinion, you are guilty of "pulling at straws"- a term I never brought up.

So now your argument is that, McDavid plays 22-25 minutes, around ~3-6 minutes more than his primary competitors by "default"- because he is "forced to". Sorry I'm not buying that. I think every team's top player could benefit from their personal productivity (if that were the end-goal)- by playing 3-6 minutes a time. That's not exclusive to McDavid. Nor am I buying the argument he is "forced to". His team didn't make the playoffs last year. You just brought up team success. If McDavid "being forced" to play an extra 3-6 minutes leads to a byproduct of missing the playoffs, then your expectations for him are in-congruent with what ultimately matters in this sport- team success.

Nor am I buying your initial argument that McDavid would produce more on a better team. If anything, he would just get less minutes. Successful teams often tend to play more rigid systems and are game-planned with more emphasis by opposing teams.

Crosby and Tavares did not play with the caliber of players McDavid have over his career, if we're talking on some historical narrative. I think it's convenient to create fictitious narratives that Malkin sheltered Crosby by being as good as he is, with non-redeemable linemates (funny, since he's had far more team success with said linemates). I also think it's convenient for you to play the "Leaf fan" narrative as well with Tavares.

 

[firstemperor]

Sucking and blowing at the same time again. Apparently it’s possible to argue that the Leafs are an offensive juggernaut and still make excuses for Matthews.

At no point was Matthews brought up by me. Nor did I mention anything about the Leafs and their supposed offensive juggernaut.

But go ahead, get it off your chest

 

[WetcoastOrca]

At no point was Matthews brought up by me. Nor did I mention anything about the Leafs and their supposed offensive juggernaut.

But go ahead, get it off your chest

My apologies. But you picked a single stat, ice time, and ignored the other factors that favour his competitors such as quality of teammates. What McDavid is doing on a terrible team is pretty darn impressive. Sure he’s playing a lot of minutes but how many players could play those minutes and still play at such a high level. Also, we’re still early in the season so his minutes may come down as soon as other players start to step up a bit more.

 

[firstemperor]

You cherry picked a single stat, ice time, and ignored the other factors that favour his competitors such as quality of teammates. You also ignore stats which favour McDavid such as total points the last two years and one of three players to win two Art Rosses before age 20. Your agenda is showing. As usual.

I've provided some substantivity about why I think QoT is overstated in the context of what was argued. See discussion re: Crosby, Dupuis, Armstrong...Tavares, Moulson, Okposo, Paranteau.

I also believe ice-time is strongly correlated with productivity, particularly when we're talking exclusively to the handful of elite players in this league. To suggest otherwise would be ignorant, or are you suggesting this notion is misguided?

McDavid winning two Art Ross's is exactly why I think he is the best player in the league today. I've actually argued in favor of that multiple times. Seems to be lost in translation, as well, that I thought he deserved the Hart last season- and actually said as such in the Hall vs Mack vs Kucherov thread last season.

Nor do I feel I'm being overly critical pointing out the ice-time disparity. I think a lot of the time posters on here nitpick narratives (as above), but a ~3-6 minute ATOI gap is absolutely enormous in this context. There is no denying that.

The only agenda that is showing seems to be your own.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I've provided some substantivity about why I think QoT is overstated in the context of what was argued. See discussion re: Crosby, Dupuis, Armstrong...Tavares, Moulson, Okposo, Paranteau.

I also believe ice-time is strongly correlated with productivity, particularly when we're talking exclusively to the handful of elite players in this league. To suggest otherwise would be ignorant, or are you suggesting this notion is misguided?

McDavid winning two Art Ross's is exactly why I think he is the best player in the league today. I've actually argued in favor of that multiple times. Nor do I feel I'm being overly critical pointing out the ice-time disparity. I think a lot of the time posters on here nitpick narratives (as above), but a ~3-6 minute ATOI gap is absolutely enormous in this context. There is no denying that.

The only agenda that is showing seems to be your own.

Apologies. I edited my post but not soon enough.

 

[1specter]

I've provided some substantivity about why I think QoT is overstated in the context of what was argued. See discussion re: Crosby, Dupuis, Armstrong...Tavares, Moulson, Okposo, Paranteau.

I also believe ice-time is strongly correlated with productivity, particularly when we're talking exclusively to the handful of elite players in this league. To suggest otherwise would be ignorant, or are you suggesting this notion is misguided?

McDavid winning two Art Ross's is exactly why I think he is the best player in the league today. I've actually argued in favor of that multiple times. Seems to be lost in translation, as well, that I thought he deserved the Hart last season- and actually said as such in the Hall vs Mack vs Kucherov thread last season.

Nor do I feel I'm being overly critical pointing out the ice-time disparity. I think a lot of the time posters on here nitpick narratives (as above), but a ~3-6 minute ATOI gap is absolutely enormous in this context. There is no denying that.

The only agenda that is showing seems to be your own.

Unfortunately people see your avatar and base their entire argument off of that.

 

[talitintti]

McDavid plays 21:30 a game and that's where his ice-time will most likely settle this year too. That's not six minutes more than any relevant player.

Here are the 5vs5 p/60 leaders since 15/16, min 1500 min

1. McDavid 3.00/60
2. Matthews 2.60/60
3. Malkin 2.47/60
4. Marchand 2.44/60
5. Scheifele 2.39/60
6. Kane 2.35/60
7.Kuznetsov 2.34/60
8. Pastrnak 2.32/60
9. Kucherov 2.32/60
10. Gaudreau 2.31/60

Scoring efficiency at 5vs5 there is McDavid and then there is the pack. And that is while playing more taxing minutes than others.

 

[jbobell98]

I've provided some substantivity about why I think QoT is overstated in the context of what was argued. See discussion re: Crosby, Dupuis, Armstrong...Tavares, Moulson, Okposo, Paranteau.

I also believe ice-time is strongly correlated with productivity, particularly when we're talking exclusively to the handful of elite players in this league. To suggest otherwise would be ignorant, or are you suggesting this notion is misguided?

McDavid winning two Art Ross's is exactly why I think he is the best player in the league today. I've actually argued in favor of that multiple times. Seems to be lost in translation, as well, that I thought he deserved the Hart last season- and actually said as such in the Hall vs Mack vs Kucherov thread last season.

Nor do I feel I'm being overly critical pointing out the ice-time disparity. I think a lot of the time posters on here nitpick narratives (as above), but a ~3-6 minute ATOI gap is absolutely enormous in this context. There is no denying that.

The only agenda that is showing seems to be your own.

Except you always fail to mention that mcdavids extra ice is largely due to him being a 1st line pker.

 

[hector morrison]

You brought in the 5 minutes and then you're only basis was moving up a pp unit. That will get him more points, but not up from 80 to 100. The second pp unit in Toronto isnt that bad.

Now it's a belief? So it's not based on fact or reality then...


I already explained that more ice time leads to more points up to a certain degree.

It's just not going as simple as saying well 25% more minutes = Matthew's scoring 25% more points and scoring 105+ points. He may, but it's not anywhere near a guarantee....

You cant even stay on track in your own argument. You brought these things into it, not me. Then you backtracked to pp time. Now your trying to strawman some general icetime-increase argument...Will a player score more points if his icetime increases from 2 minutes to 10? Yes. Wow guess you proved me wrong.

Your all over the map here! My initial statement was in response to someone else in regard to Mcdavids ice time being the main reason he would eventually surpass other players in the scoring race.
Using the fact that he plays 5 minutes a game more than Auston ,he should logically have more points. Really not that much of a stretch for you ,is it? Other posters brought up non-sensical aspects to muddy my 'Theory" ,which is ridiculous,because no one would honestly argue that more ice time is not directly related to more points! Would they?
Then ,out of the blue ,you jumped in with all this other BS ! Fact remains,My point remains...more Ice = more points . not hard really!

 

[Fourier]

RNH is no slouch. Some competitors debatably have a bit more talent than him, some don't. I still, personally, weigh the extra 3-6 minutes per game more than the assumed talent difference.

Also, having a better team is mutually exclusive, more or less, to absolute point totals. In fact, you could easily argue the opposite- that it's harder to produce on a good team, as teams game-plan more heavily around these teams.

If team success was a viable metric, all this acts is as a deterrent to McDavid's value, not a positive. Personally, I don't buy that argument. It's a team game, but just giving some food for thought since you brought it up.

If you want to see game planning watch the Oilers vs the Sharks. Count the time McDavid is on the ice that Vlasic is not. Over the last 2 years vs SJ McDavid at 5 vs 5 was on the ice for 114 minutes against Vlasic and 33 without him.

McLellan does nothing to try and get McDavid away from tough match-ups so I doubt there is a player in the league that spends more time vs elite defensemen than McDavid.

For the last two years: minutes on vs minutes away for McDavid
1) Vlasic 114-33
2) Braun 107-40
3) Doughty 90-60'
4) Giordano 86-51
5) OEL 82-60
6) Forbort 76-74
7) Edler 72-70
8) Lindholm 70-79
9) Hamilton 68-69
10) Manson 68-69

Next five outside division
1) Pietrangelo 61-35
2) Keith 61-37
3) Trouba 57-19
4) Dumba 49-43
5) Chara 47-16
6) Carlson 47-22
7) Reilly 47-19
8) Ellis 46-40
9) Slavin 45-20
10) Pesce 44-22

For this year:
1) Trouba 14-4
2) Vatanen 14-4
3) Chara 14-3
4) Mueler 14-4
5) Morrissey 13-5
6) McAvoy 12-5
7) Skjei 11-6
8) McQuaid 8-9
9) Brendan Smith 6-11
10 Staal 5-12

The most frequent defensemen that Matthews faced over the last two years were:

1) Ceci 65-51
2) Phaneuf 61-56
3) Slavin 52-27
4) Weber 50-39
5) Yandle 48-66
6) Ekblad 45-43
7) Karlsson 43-73
8) Pesce 43-35
9) Ericsson 43-33
10) McDonagh 42-44

Outside of the division:
1) Braun 38-20
2) Provorov 38-33
3) Dekeyser 33-57
4) Leddy 33-56
5) OEL 32-32
6) M. Green 32-30
7) Josi 31-31
8) Dumoulin 31-34
9) Hamilton 31-28
10) Ellis 30-32

For this year it was
1) John Carlson 10-6
2) Miro Heiskanen 10-7
3) Drew Doughty 9-6
4) Michael Kempny 9-7
5) Derek Forbort 8-7
6) Mark Boroweicki 8-8
7) Esa Lindell 7-9
8) Danny Dekeyser 7-6
9) Duncan Keith 7-7
10) Henri Jokiharju 7-8

These numbers show that teams game plan for McDavid much more than for Matthews.

 

[syz]

These numbers show that teams game plan for McDavid much more than for Matthews.

Coaching probably has something to do with it as well. I'm not sure how Babcock has used Mathews over the years but I've never seen a coach just let the other team decide the matchups more than McLellan. Whether the Oilers are at home or on the road, McDavid ends up on the ice against other top lines and top pairings. Normally it'd be bad coaching, but it turns out McDavid wins every matchup anyways.

 

[Fourier]

Coaching probably has something to do with it as well. I'm not sure how Babcock has used Mathews over the years but I've never seen a coach just let the other team decide the matchups more than McLellan. Whether the Oilers are at home or on the road, McDavid ends up on the ice against other top lines and top pairings. Normally it'd be bad coaching, but it turns out McDavid wins every matchup anyways.

It's actually quite remarkable. Even when they are down he does nothing to get a favourable match-up.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Coaching probably has something to do with it as well. I'm not sure how Babcock has used Mathews over the years but I've never seen a coach just let the other team decide the matchups more than McLellan. Whether the Oilers are at home or on the road, McDavid ends up on the ice against other top lines and top pairings. Normally it'd be bad coaching, but it turns out McDavid wins every matchup anyways.