How good can Sean Day become?

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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This is exactly what Beacon means.

Day is not going to be an NHL'er this year, he might not even be good enough for the AHL yet.

He was not all that great in the CHL last year. He was good, he made improvements, but people act like Day is the next Bobby Orr because at one point there was a thought process that he would be a 1OA talent.

He's not right now. People just gotta accept that. His play this season with Windsor was that of maybe a 2nd round talent or maybe late 1st. We probably did get good value for Day, but he's not shown anything near what people portray.

Brooks can't even write an article about our best prospect who's the best goalie in the second best league in the world, probably the best prospect at his position outside the NHL, yet he'll write an article about the fourth best defenseman on his own team last year in the CHL because of ES, which was given out years ago.

Day is a good prospect, his skating and size is really good, and he has decent offensive tools, including good puck moving, good puck handling and a good shot, but he is not this future Bobby Orr or bust player that he is made out to be. He is still not good defensively, his hockey IQ is near non-existent, and while his passing, puck skills, shot is fine, its not really of an elite level, more of a slightly above average level, but not all that much higher than that. He has a high ceiling, but its not what people make him out to be. Those absolutely elite potential is missing in every category other than skating and size. I actually think he has a higher floor than people think. He skates so well that I think he'll be no worse than John Moore.
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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If he's shown" late first round talent this year at Windsor", than how are people overrating Day so much if they think he can be a top 4 pmd? Isn't that right in the ballpark?
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Dec 8, 2013
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If he's shown" late first round talent this year at Windsor", than how are people overrating Day so much if they think he can be a top 4 pmd? Isn't that right in the ballpark?

You are conflating a few things.

He could be a top 4 defensemen, but so could most defensemen drafted in the first few rounds. His ceiling is overrated based on people thinking since he already has the physical tools that he'll be able to put it all together. A lot of putting it together is being really smart, showing a very good progression, grading out high in the intangible areas. I'm not saying Day is terrible in all those areas, but I think its more likely than not that he's the type of player who will not be able to overachieve and maximize or even exceed his perceived ceiling due to being not so good in some of those areas.

And I was making the point that in a re-draft, I think Day would be like late 1st, early 2nd. He's a big name, he has a skill-set a lot of people like, he's done well although not great the last season and really before that the last half season of his draft year, I think he would move up like maybe a round and a half due to that.

Saying that, it doesn't make him a guy who could open up on our roster this season, nor does it make him as good as the previous hype or the proclamations that he has an unlimited ceiling.
 

SML

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So he's big, skates like hell, but his conditioning isn't Great, and he's suspect defensively? Why does he sound like Bufyglien on an ELC?
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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You are conflating a few things.

He could be a top 4 defensemen, but so could most defensemen drafted in the first few rounds. His ceiling is overrated based on people thinking since he already has the physical tools that he'll be able to put it all together. A lot of putting it together is being really smart, showing a very good progression, grading out high in the intangible areas. I'm not saying Day is terrible in all those areas, but I think its more likely than not that he's the type of player who will not be able to overachieve and maximize or even exceed his perceived ceiling due to being not so good in some of those areas.

And I was making the point that in a re-draft, I think Day would be like late 1st, early 2nd. He's a big name, he has a skill-set a lot of people like, he's done well although not great the last season and really before that the last half season of his draft year, I think he would move up like maybe a round and a half due to that.

Saying that, it doesn't make him a guy who could open up on our roster this season, nor does it make him as good as the previous hype or the proclamations that he has an unlimited ceiling.

I am not conflating anything. Ceiling means exactly that, if all things go perfectly that's how good he can be. Maybe 10 percent of players will ever hit their ceiling or exceed it. I haven't seen anyone say he's a sure fire all star, they only refer to his ceiling.

Either way if you're saying on a re draft he's going to possibly be picked in the bottom half of the 1st, then that's pretty damn good improvement from a guy that fell all the way into the third. So it's natural people get excited about it.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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I am not conflating anything. Ceiling means exactly that, if all things go perfectly that's how good he can be. Maybe 10 percent of players will ever hit their ceiling or exceed it. I haven't seen anyone say he's a sure fire all star, they only refer to his ceiling.

Either way if you're saying on a re draft he's going to possibly be picked in the bottom half of the 1st, then that's pretty damn good improvement from a guy that fell all the way into the third. So it's natural people get excited about it.

He's was under-drafted anyway. We definitely made a good value pick, and it was obvious at the time. Some teams scouted Day wrong or just didn't pick him where he should've went as the turn around started around the end of his draft season. He should've been at least a second rounder. And he's made some more progress since, but I still think his ceiling is not what some claim.

Kreider's another one of these physical beasts, but skating as well as McDavid and having better size than him doesn't mean he could be a LW McDavid if he hit his ceiling. He lacks the playmaking, hockey IQ, puck skills that McDavid does. Its kind of similar with Day, although I think we are talking about to a lesser degree. Day has great physical tools, but the rest is why his ceiling is overrated. I don't think you could realistically include parts of his game that are not at a high level, and say if that develops to a very high level that he could be some Bobby Orr. It would be like saying if McIlrath developed better skating, a better shot and better passing that he would've been Shea Weber. There's a point when discussing a player's ceiling that it involves too much unlikely projecting to include that as part of a player's ceiling.
 

Lion Hound

@JoeTucc26
Mar 12, 2007
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He's was under-drafted anyway. We definitely made a good value pick, and it was obvious at the time. Some teams scouted Day wrong or just didn't pick him where he should've went as the turn around started around the end of his draft season. He should've been at least a second rounder. And he's made some more progress since, but I still think his ceiling is not what some claim.

Kreider's another one of these physical beasts, but skating as well as McDavid and having better size than him doesn't mean he could be a LW McDavid if he hit his ceiling. He lacks the playmaking, hockey IQ, puck skills that McDavid does. Its kind of similar with Day, although I think we are talking about to a lesser degree. Day has great physical tools, but the rest is why his ceiling is overrated. I don't think you could realistically include parts of his game that are not at a high level, and say if that develops to a very high level that he could be some Bobby Orr. It would be like saying if McIlrath developed better skating, a better shot and better passing that he would've been Shea Weber. There's a point when discussing a player's ceiling that it involves too much unlikely projecting to include that as part of a player's ceiling.

I agree with most of that. But watching this guy come through the neutral zone with a full head of steam, and the puck on a string, effortlessly through the opposition is such a thing of beauty that you have to wonder how his ceiling is as low as what it is.

If Kreider as a forward is Days ceiling as a Dman, I'll take that all day long!
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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How did you get to this conclusion? Even in this thread most expect a top4 ceiling if things break the right way, while acknowledging that he could as well wind up a marginal NHLer or worse.

Are you going to pull out your PPG "analysis" again?

Yes, my analysis is terrible. This is why going back 10 years on this account and doing prospect polls since 2009 where I listed my opinion on each and every prospect, nobody could think of a case where I dismissed a prospect and turned out to be wrong. This is true even for Grachev, who at the time was widely ranked at or near our #1 spot. Likewise, my biggest miss when I was pimping an unheralded prospect turned out to be JAM, who wasn't much of a miss after all, just took a little longer.

Every year there's at least 1-2 guys I dump on whom everyone else likes. Not one succeeded yet. But yeah let's put the word "analysis" in quotes to say that it's crap that needs to be dismissed out of hand.

Day isn't Fogarty or Pashnin, but he's not a blue chipper, he does not have the ceiling to be a difference maker for the team. Maybe a third pair guy at most.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
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New York
I agree with most of that. But watching this guy come through the neutral zone with a full head of steam, and the puck on a string, effortlessly through the opposition is such a thing of beauty that you have to wonder how his ceiling is as low as what it is.

If Kreider as a forward is Days ceiling as a Dman, I'll take that all day long!

And I think thats exactly what it is. He'll dazzle with the skating, size, and above average passing, shot, puck skills. The rest will likely be below average.

I think his ceiling is probably like Skjei's rookie season, nearly 40 points, slightly below average defense. Probably like a 4D, maybe a 3D.
 

bl02

Registered User
Jan 13, 2014
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well probably time shut down this thread. the proverbial bucket of cold water has been thrown on what i thought was some legitimate excitement for a kid with some terrific skills.
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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Yes, my analysis is terrible. This is why going back 10 years on this account and doing prospect polls since 2009 where I listed my opinion on each and every prospect, nobody could think of a case where I dismissed a prospect and turned out to be wrong. This is true even for Grachev, who at the time was widely ranked at or near our #1 spot. Likewise, my biggest miss when I was pimping an unheralded prospect turned out to be JAM, who wasn't much of a miss after all, just took a little longer.

Every year there's at least 1-2 guys I dump on whom everyone else likes. Not one succeeded yet. But yeah let's put the word "analysis" in quotes to say that it's crap that needs to be dismissed out of hand.

Day isn't Fogarty or Pashnin, but he's not a blue chipper, he does not have the ceiling to be a difference maker for the team. Maybe a third pair guy at most.

Awesome, which NHL team do you work for again?
 

TheGuarantee

Registered User
Jul 1, 2016
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Yes, my analysis is terrible. This is why going back 10 years on this account and doing prospect polls since 2009 where I listed my opinion on each and every prospect, nobody could think of a case where I dismissed a prospect and turned out to be wrong. This is true even for Grachev, who at the time was widely ranked at or near our #1 spot. Likewise, my biggest miss when I was pimping an unheralded prospect turned out to be JAM, who wasn't much of a miss after all, just took a little longer.

Every year there's at least 1-2 guys I dump on whom everyone else likes. Not one succeeded yet. But yeah let's put the word "analysis" in quotes to say that it's crap that needs to be dismissed out of hand.

Day isn't Fogarty or Pashnin, but he's not a blue chipper, he does not have the ceiling to be a difference maker for the team. Maybe a third pair guy at most.

Jesus Christ, your first paragraph reads like a goddamn Jack Kerouac prologue.
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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Take a Wild Guess
He's was under-drafted anyway. We definitely made a good value pick, and it was obvious at the time. Some teams scouted Day wrong or just didn't pick him where he should've went as the turn around started around the end of his draft season. He should've been at least a second rounder. And he's made some more progress since, but I still think his ceiling is not what some claim.

Kreider's another one of these physical beasts, but skating as well as McDavid and having better size than him doesn't mean he could be a LW McDavid if he hit his ceiling. He lacks the playmaking, hockey IQ, puck skills that McDavid does. Its kind of similar with Day, although I think we are talking about to a lesser degree. Day has great physical tools, but the rest is why his ceiling is overrated. I don't think you could realistically include parts of his game that are not at a high level, and say if that develops to a very high level that he could be some Bobby Orr. It would be like saying if McIlrath developed better skating, a better shot and better passing that he would've been Shea Weber. There's a point when discussing a player's ceiling that it involves too much unlikely projecting to include that as part of a player's ceiling.

Kreider was one of the few prospects I watched extensively in college and the WJC. Admittedly, I do not watch many of our prospects. I watch the WJC and some college. I would never lie and opine on a prospect I have never seen play, like some notably do.

----I have zero idea how many you actually see, don't see, so that was not calling you out. If I call you out you would know. lol----

Kreider's ceiling was never McDavid's. There's only 2-3 players I have ever seen with a ceiling such as that. I don't think I have seen a single person ever say that. Having watched him play college, he clearly was a man among boys from the neck down, it's still that way in the NHL. Many of us thought he would probably be a better pro. Anyhow that's another discussion.

It's your opinion what the ceiling of Day is. Your interpretation of his playing. That's fine, not a single sole is saying he will be Bobby Orr, nobody. If they're saying that, it's strictly to bust balls.

The fact is at the time he was not under drafted. He had many warts, which were openly spoken about. They included conditioning problems. Conditioning problems are a death sentence for any prospect, especially when guy next to you in camp has spent the entire summer in a conditioning program from a Prentiss or Gary Roberts.

He's under drafted in retrospect because he realized that having 20% body fat is not a proper avenue to the NHL, plus the fact he was traded to an organization that was much better for his development. The Rangers took a chance and so far it looks like it may work out. If he becomes a 3rd pair 12 minute a night defenseman he still beat the odds and worked out fine for a 3rd rounder.

Unless a ceiling is lol nuts, the ceiling is just saying simply that if things work out perfect this is what he could be. Day can get his head on straight and work out perfect, chances are minimal it will happen.

If I had told you on draft day that Shea Weber's ceiling was that of a Norris trophy winner, 99.99% of the people would point at me and laugh, yet there he is. McIlrath was a developmental pick, we were told wait 5 years to see him in an NHL uniform. He was looked more like a Jeff Beukeboom type. If anyone said, Shea Weber, I would have laughed.

BTW the only players I have ever seen with McDavid's upside were 99, 66 and Kovalev. I don't even think Crosby's upside is as big as McDavid, my opinion like it or not.
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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Awesome, which NHL team do you work for again?

So no way to respond to what I said? Just a claim that if I don't take a massive pay cut to drive on the Canadian snow in the winter to watch teenagers play, it must mean I have no idea.
 

egelband

Registered User
Sep 6, 2008
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"The Next Bobby Orr"
Awwwwwwwwwesome!!!!
ðŸ‘ÂðŸÂ’ðŸ‘ÂðŸ‘ÂðŸ‘ÂðŸ‘ÂðŸ‘ÂðŸ‘Âø‘Â🤗ðŸ‘Â🤗
 

kovazub94

Enigmatic
Aug 5, 2010
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So no way to respond to what I said? Just a claim that if I don't take a massive pay cut to drive on the Canadian snow in the winter to watch teenagers play, it must mean I have no idea.

No, it's you who avoided explaining yourself. You labeled Day the most overrated prospect and then went on a self righteous rant.
 

ManUtdTobbe

Registered User
Jun 28, 2016
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Saying that Day's ceiling is "Maybe a third pair guy at most." is pretty pathetic imo and shows you've not really watched him at all.

As i've said multiple times, i don't think he's a blue chipper or even a sure fire long term NHLer, but he definitely has a very high ceiling.
Low chance of getting to that ceiling but his ceiling is MUCH higher then "Maybe a third pair guy at most.", that's just lazy, narrative driven bad analysis.

Sean Day is one of those prospects with a very broad range between his floor and ceiling because of several factors, the physical ones being the biggest one, but also the concerns about his hockey IQ.
Maybe he will completely bust, and i'm sure you'll be right here with your "i told you so", but that doesn't mean you were right in your analysis, because ur not.
 

Beacon

Embrace the tank
May 28, 2007
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No, it's you who avoided explaining yourself. You labeled Day the most overrated prospect and then went on a self righteous rant.

What explanations do you see from all those praising Day (or any other prospect)? Someone declares a prospect great without any reasoning except "I watched him that one game and he was great," the rest of the board cheers and the hype spreads. Every year, same thing. But if you then have doubts about a prospect, you are a bad person and an idiot whose opinion is irrelevant.

Let's start with Day in training camp. He was either terrible or just acceptable in Traverse games. But Traverse is below ECHL level hockey. Guys who can be a third pair blueliner in the AHL (Parlett, Gilmour) simply dominate in Traverse. They don't have terrible games at that level and not even "acceptable" games, they just abuse teens whose future mostly lies with a third-rate Canadian college. Was Day even close to Gilmour, a third pair AHL defenseman? Not even in the same league.

Then he got sent down to the Juniors when 47 others, including 15 defensemen, were still in preseason camp. This is more than double the regular season roster, meaning Day was seen as unable to keep up even with low-end AHLers.

His OHL stats were almost identical, even slightly worse, than those from 2 years earlier. For an offensive defenseman in his 4th full OHL season, his stats were absolute crap. Progress or lack thereof is the biggest predictor of a kid's future success, much more than any given skill. (This is where you need to go, "see, see, I told you, it's all about stats for you!")

On occasion he'd make a nice move around a 17-year-old who will be in the ECHL (or less) in his prime because hey, he's an offensive guy. The moves he makes, however, won't translate at the NHL level based on what I've seen with him, and what I've learned in the past from others.

His defense improved, but everyone's defense improves by the time they are in the Juniors for the 4th season. He's still not viewed as some defensive stalwart, just that it's not a liability against teenagers who mostly have no NHL future.

Whatever excuses you can find for the above, that's up to you. But the fact that someone has an excuse, legitimate or not, for stumbling is not proof that he is a top-shelf prospect. Day does not have top-4 potential unless he has a sudden, unexpected breakthrough.
 

Miamipuck

Al Swearengen
Dec 29, 2009
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So no way to respond to what I said? Just a claim that if I don't take a massive pay cut to drive on the Canadian snow in the winter to watch teenagers play, it must mean I have no idea.

No because frankly I don't give a ****.

I can claim I made water wet, it's the internet.
 

ManUtdTobbe

Registered User
Jun 28, 2016
5,173
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Sweden
What explanations do you see from all those praising Day (or any other prospect)? Someone declares a prospect great without any reasoning except "I watched him that one game and he was great," the rest of the board cheers and the hype spreads. Every year, same thing. But if you then have doubts about a prospect, you are a bad person and an idiot whose opinion is irrelevant.

Let's start with Day in training camp. He was either terrible or just acceptable in Traverse games. But Traverse is below ECHL level hockey. Guys who can be a third pair blueliner in the AHL (Parlett, Gilmour) simply dominate in Traverse. They don't have terrible games at that level and not even "acceptable" games, they just abuse teens whose future mostly lies with a third-rate Canadian college. Was Day even close to Gilmour, a third pair AHL defenseman? Not even in the same league.

Then he got sent down to the Juniors when 47 others, including 15 defensemen, were still in preseason camp. This is more than double the regular season roster, meaning Day was seen as unable to keep up even with low-end AHLers.

His OHL stats were almost identical, even slightly worse, than those from 2 years earlier. For an offensive defenseman in his 4th full OHL season, his stats were absolute crap. Progress or lack thereof is the biggest predictor of a kid's future success, much more than any given skill. (This is where you need to go, "see, see, I told you, it's all about stats for you!")

On occasion he'd make a nice move around a 17-year-old who will be in the ECHL (or less) in his prime because hey, he's an offensive guy. The moves he makes, however, won't translate at the NHL level based on what I've seen with him, and what I've learned in the past from others.

His defense improved, but everyone's defense improves by the time they are in the Juniors for the 4th season. He's still not viewed as some defensive stalwart, just that it's not a liability against teenagers who mostly have no NHL future.

Whatever excuses you can find for the above, that's up to you. But the fact that someone has an excuse, legitimate or not, for stumbling is not proof that he is a top-shelf prospect. Day does not have top-4 potential unless he has a sudden, unexpected breakthrough.

So much BS in this post, holy crap.

1. Some of us actually do watch plenty of OHL, Windsor in particular, something you obviously don't.

2. Judging someone purely from Traverse and camp is a dangerous thing, comparing traverse to a league is just dumb.

3. His OHL stats needs some context which you ALWAYS leave out. He was played mostly on the 2nd pairing and got ~30sec on each 2 min PP because Windsor had a STACKED D with blue chip prospect Sergachev as their top LHD. His stats actually did improve quite a bit! Also notable that most of his points were primary points, which is very nice.

4. How do you know who he made a move by? He had end-to-end rushes against good teams like London which had a bunch of really good players on the team, guys like Juolevi, Thomas, Pu etc, but keep driving your narrative though.

5. So it's not good that he's improving just because "everyone" improves? FFS.

6. You are clueless.

7. I don't think Days is anything close to a blue chipper, he might never be a regular NHLer, but your "evaluation" of him is so filled with BS it's crazy.
 
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nyr2k2

Can't Beat Him
Jul 30, 2005
45,712
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Day has great upside. I take issue with him being labeled an offensive defenseman--he has the tools to post a lot of points but he also has the ability to play defense, which is something he improved at greatly this past season along with his overall consistency on a game-by-game basis. I think if he comes anywhere close to fulfilling his potential it's as a two-way guy.

He carries a high bust potential. He also carries a ton of upside, which you'd see flashes of in the CHL where at times he'd go on rushes that just made the other five guys look overmatched.

He's still a raw prospect. His development hasn't followed an ideal curve. However, part of that is due to his exceptional player status. That has altered expectations and skewed perceptions of him. Had he entered as a regular player I think more people would be fine with his development to this point. Instead he looks like a disappointment because he hasn't lived up to that exceptional status.

Let's see what he can do in Hartford. A strong rookie campaign and there will be legitimate reason for optimism with him. A weak debut where he really struggles, and then it will look increasingly like he really is a bust.

He's only overrated if you have high EXPECTATIONS for him as he hasn't justified those expectations. Judging him to have very high upside doesn't overrate him.

Everyone has someone they overrate. There are people here who think Zborovoskiy is ready to step in and that he's going to be a two-way second pair defenseman. I think that's a massive overating of him. It is what it is though. Opinions vary on Day pretty significantly so I don't know how anyone can come to the conclusion that he's "the most" overrated guy in the system.
 

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