Speculation: Hershey Bears/South Carolina Stingrays 2019-2020 Vol. 1

[Sam Spade]

Not gonna lie I only expect anything at all from the first rounders.

If you hit on a second rounder or lower that's great but really the percentages are low after round one.

 

[Hivemind]

Not gonna lie I only expect anything at all from the first rounders.

If you hit on a second rounder or lower that's great but really the percentages are low after round one.

This subtweet on that chain encapsulates why I've been frustrated with the Caps' tendency to trade up in the draft after the 1st round



FWIW, those picks turned into these players. Obviously still far too soon to evaluate a 2017 draftee's ultimate NHL fate (especially those outside the 1st round)
#35 Isaac Ratcliffe
#44 Filip Westerlund
#75 Nate Schnarr (part of the Taylor Hall trade)
#108 Noel Hoefenmayer

 

[Melkor]

Do you actually watch or are you stat watching like another famous poster around these parts?

Johansen is injured. His development has stalled because of major injury time the past two seasons. When he has been on the ice he has been exactly as advertised. A young D man who needs reps to become more consistent enough to be an NHL regular.

You're not giving enough credit to forwards like Beck Malenstyn, Brian Pinho, AJF, Pilon etc. Most of those guys have the talent to eventually help out the Capitals in a bottom six role. They weren't drafted to be top 6 players in the NHL. They have the game to be an effective 4th line player in the NHL.

The two major disappointments in Hershey have been Connor Hobbs and Shane Gersich. Hobbs has always been viewed as a boom or bust type prospect and he's leaning toward being a bust. Shane Gersich's disappointment is due to the overhype he got for having a good season playing with guys like Tyson Jost and Brock Boeser. He has worked on using his speed to mold himself into a bottom 6 type player. He's definitely behind in the development curve.

You specifically called out Leason. What do you expect of a guy that goes from playing against kids to playing against grown men? A guy that still has to grow into his body and fill out his frame. Your expectations clearly are extremely high on him. And before you call out Clark and Sutter may I remind you that they too are rookies to the pro game and both are coming off significant injuries. Both were out since the rookie tournament in September

It's almost as if you troll these threads with the intent of getting everyone riled up on purpose.

Career AHLers. You're telling me those were BPAs at the time of the pick or what? And how long you think it has to take until they can compete for a spot on a 4th line? Correct me if I'm mistaken but it's 4th season for Pilon, AJF and Beck after the draft and 7th for Pinho. [MOD]

 

[Hivemind]

Also, who cares how far out they are from their draft year? Every single player is different in terms of development time. Not everyone is a John Carlson, Nick Backstrom or an Alex Ovechkin and can step into the NHL pretty much right away and be successful.

While there are certainly notable exceptions and cases of late bloomers, the odds are stacked against a player the further he gets beyond his draft season. Broadly speaking, NHL players' peak in their early-mid 20s. There's not a lot of runway left for several of the players on your list to continue developing and improving. Further still, players who come into the NHL later tend to have shorter and less productive careers.
From the linked paper:
"Those who started playing NHL hockey at 22 or older scored about 80% of their career points at ten years. At the same point in time (the 10-year mark), those who began their NHL careers at an age less than 20 were only at the 70% level; they hit the 80% level during their twelfth year. This means that, in terms of cumulative point production, those starting their NHL careers at an earlier age tended to have greater longevity. As well, those beginning later in life had a tendency to peak sooner."

To put this a different way, how did you feel about guys like Riley Barber, Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon, Steve Pinnizzotto, and Francois Bouchard at similar ages to the players being discussed? How many of the current wave of Bears are a clear cut above the Bears that came before that couldn't ultimately make the jump to become NHL regulars? Alexeyev and Fehervary, for sure. Djoos is probably on-par or better than a guy like Sami Lepisto (who carved out a decent career as a 6/7 before going to Europe). But that forward bunch? It becomes dubious pretty quickly, especially for the older guys. I hope we get a couple NHL role players from that bunch, but I also wouldn't be surprise if they pan out as largely fringe players.

 

[Melkor]

I do get what you are saying but honestly that is 3/4 of the league now. All of your good players/prospects aren't fermenting anymore in the AHL, they are in the NHL playing 4th line, and then hopefully, higher minutes.

The Capitals are a successful team who have plenty of their picks playing in the NHL on the Caps or somewhere else right now, that is a testament to Mahoney and his staff. If some of them don't work out I can live with that.

I have no problem with some of the guys not panning out, that's kinda normal. I have a problem with the narrative that Caps draft BPAs or guys for some specific roles like bottom liners or like that and then you look at the bottom lines and they are literally built completely through free agency or trades and you look at the top-6 and see 3 30+ year olds a couple of which are slowly declining, Wilson who's kinda swiss army knife type of player who's not specifically great as an offensive player but has a good balance of skills that prevents him from being a liability at most of the aspects, you got Kuzy who was drafted 10 years ago and Vrana who seems to be having a breakout season but doesn't exactly look like a game breaker yet. The team overall looks good, I just don't get where people take this "They draft well and have a lot of NHL talent down in the minors" stuff. Lately their drafting isn't very good. Drafting well is when you draft and develop a young player to the point when he pushes an average vet out of the lineup. He prevents a team from an FA signing or unnecessary trade with the level of play he shows. Who's that guy in the lineup this season? Siegenthaler? One of the most limited players on the team and not due to inexperience. There's just not much he can do naturally. No shot, below average IQ, below average skating, not as physical as his size would suggest. With how many Ds they've been drafting for the last 5 years you'd think some of them would develop to the point where they'd be able to outplay players of Nick Jensen caliber. And they can't even do that. But whatever I'd have to say, people who are just blindly in love with their drafting would still be in love with their drafting. Whatever. That's why I replied to that fella with "Good" and moved on.

 

[hb12xchamps]

How was my post completely cut out of this thread by a mod that isn't on our mod list and a mod that's a Hurricanes fan? I'd love to see where that post broke any of the rules

 

[itsjustsurvival]

How was my post completely cut out of this thread by a mod that isn't on our mod list and a mod that's a Hurricanes fan? I'd love to see where that post broke any of the rules

You weren't given a reason or anything? Sounds pretty lame.

 

[hb12xchamps]

You weren't given a reason or anything? Sounds pretty lame.

Nope nothing

Just noticed some prior posts were marked “edited by moderator” and that moderator wasn’t from the Caps forum. Plus, a moderator from this forum had already seen the posts that have been edited or removed

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Same for mine. No reason, nothing. I’m guessing someone toothless complained.

it’s ok message was delivered....moving on.

 

[Hivemind]

Not speculating as to why the posts were edited or deleted, but global moderators are a thing.

 

[Melkor]

Same for mine. No reason, nothing. I’m guessing someone toothless complained.

I could care less about anyone's posts if you're insinuating that it was me. Quite frankly, I don't even read long posts to the end especially when I see the narrative that is completely bogus in my mind. So you're off the target , my friend.

 

[hb12xchamps]

While there are certainly notable exceptions and cases of late bloomers, the odds are stacked against a player the further he gets beyond his draft season. Broadly speaking, NHL players' peak in their early-mid 20s. There's not a lot of runway left for several of the players on your list to continue developing and improving. Further still, players who come into the NHL later tend to have shorter and less productive careers.
From the linked paper:
"Those who started playing NHL hockey at 22 or older scored about 80% of their career points at ten years. At the same point in time (the 10-year mark), those who began their NHL careers at an age less than 20 were only at the 70% level; they hit the 80% level during their twelfth year. This means that, in terms of cumulative point production, those starting their NHL careers at an earlier age tended to have greater longevity. As well, those beginning later in life had a tendency to peak sooner."

To put this a different way, how did you feel about guys like Riley Barber, Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon, Steve Pinnizzotto, and Francois Bouchard at similar ages to the players being discussed? How many of the current wave of Bears are a clear cut above the Bears that came before that couldn't ultimately make the jump to become NHL regulars? Alexeyev and Fehervary, for sure. Djoos is probably on-par or better than a guy like Sami Lepisto (who carved out a decent career as a 6/7 before going to Europe). But that forward bunch? It becomes dubious pretty quickly, especially for the older guys. I hope we get a couple NHL role players from that bunch, but I also wouldn't be surprise if they pan out as largely fringe players.

The guys you’re comparing (Besides Pinnizzotto and Gordon) weren’t groomed as being role players, they all were top 6 guys pretty much off the hop and we’re mostly known as being skilled players. was a big skeptic of Barber and have called him out on here multiple times and he ended up going on multiple tears after my call outs

It’s almost as if the organization has viewed this crop of prospects as being projected as role players in the NHL (defensively responsible, PK guys) and they have primarily used them that way in Hershey.

But again, that goes back to my now deleted point about these guys living up to their potential. If 2-3 of them pan out as bottom 6 guys or role players I’d view that as a success. They aren’t going to light the world on fire in terms of points at either level but if they can make the jump and become a great defensively responsible forward with PK shutdown duties I’m fine with that.

 

[895]

If even two current Hershey forwards becomes a useful player I'll be really happy. I'm really only expecting one. 1/4 chance for Beck/AJF and 50/50 for Leason. Rest are less than 5%.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I could care less about anyone's posts if you're insinuating that it was me. Quite frankly, I don't even read long posts to the end especially when I see the narrative that is completely bogus in my mind. So you're off the target , my friend.

why so angry and combative lately?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If even two current Hershey forwards becomes a useful player I'll be really happy. I'm really only expecting one. 1/4 chance for Beck/AJF and 50/50 for Leason. Rest are less than 5%.

Beck is almost a lock to be an NHL’er IMO. Beyond that, crapshoot.

Caps are doing their best picking late. Not much else to do unless you (not you specifically) covet the strategy of taking flyers on long reach forwards and praying they turn out.

 

[Melkor]

why so angry and combative lately?

Not really. I just see someone replying that whatever point I make is silly and have no interest in continuing discussion. It's okay to disagree but it's kinda strange to imply that what I'm saying is silly when the fact is that Hershey for last 5 years or so is ...I don't want to sound disrespectful and it's probably a good team by AHL standards but it looks like garbage in terms of NHL talent.

Also I've never reported on any posts on this thread or any other so I don't know why would you think it was me. My posts were also deleted and edited. Don't like to leave an impression of a snitch.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Not really. I just see someone replying that whatever point I make is silly and have no interest in continuing discussion. It's okay to disagree but it's kinda strange to imply that what I'm saying is silly when the fact is that Hershey for last 5 years or so is ...I don't want to sound disrespectful and it's probably a good team by AHL standards but it looks like garbage in terms of NHL talent.

Also I've never reported on any posts on this thread or any other so I don't know why would you think it was me. My posts were also deleted and edited. Don't like to leave an impression of a snitch.

So because I have a different opinion than you do my opinion is silly?

The Caps have been a very good team the past 5+ years. They haven’t had a ton of quality draft choices and pretty much all of their 1st and 2nd rounders from that time frame seem to be NHL level talent. I’d wage that all of those picks are NHLers at some point in time in the next few seasons unless LuJo can’t stay healthy (trending that way).

Outside of that, the Caps either haven’t had the draft picks or have drafted guys that project to play more of a heavy game/bottom 6 role. They’ve already hit on some of those players making the jump to the NHL (Djoos, Stephenson, Boyd, etc.) and they have some guys in Hershey (Malenstyn, Pinho, AJF etc.) that project to be able to fill NHL bottom 6 roles. Maybe my version of “NHL Talent” compared to yours is different, but I personally believe those players could step into the NHL and be an effective player, hence why to me they have “NHL Talent.”

The forward group in Hershey hasn’t been great the past 5 years because of this. The D core has been solid due to the fact that Washington has drafted tons of D. The forward corps are going to take a hit because of that.

The Capitals strategy with drafting has always been BPA. They say that every single year. It’s not some secret they lock away under lock and key. Is it the right way? I really can’t say yes or no. Their drafting pedigree has been one of the best in the league the past 10+ years

 

[Melkor]

So because I have a different opinion than you do my opinion is silly?

The Caps have been a very good team the past 5+ years. They haven’t had a ton of quality draft choices and pretty much all of their 1st and 2nd rounders from that time frame seem to be NHL level talent. I’d wage that all of those picks are NHLers at some point in time in the next few seasons unless LuJo can’t stay healthy (trending that way).

Outside of that, the Caps either haven’t had the draft picks or have drafted guys that project to play more of a heavy game/bottom 6 role. They’ve already hit on some of those players making the jump to the NHL (Djoos, Stephenson, Boyd, etc.) and they have some guys in Hershey (Malenstyn, Pinho, AJF etc.) that project to be able to fill NHL bottom 6 roles. Maybe my version of “NHL Talent” compared to yours is different, but I personally believe those players could step into the NHL and be an effective player, hence why to me they have “NHL Talent.”

The forward group in Hershey hasn’t been great the past 5 years because of this. The D core has been solid due to the fact that Washington has drafted tons of D. The forward corps are going to take a hit because of that.

The Capitals strategy with drafting has always been BPA. They say that every single year. It’s not some secret they lock away under lock and key. Is it the right way? I really can’t say yes or no. Their drafting pedigree has been one of the best in the league the past 10+ years

I haven't said that. Actually said that it was vice versa. I voiced my opinion that Hershey has little to no NHL talent and you said that the majority of young players is doing very good and I can't back up my point with anything hence what I'm saying sounds silly. I backed up my point a couple of posts above.

 

[traparatus]

I have no problem with some of the guys not panning out, that's kinda normal. I have a problem with the narrative that Caps draft BPAs or guys for some specific roles like bottom liners or like that and then you look at the bottom lines and they are literally built completely through free agency or trades and you look at the top-6 and see 3 30+ year olds a couple of which are slowly declining, Wilson who's kinda swiss army knife type of player who's not specifically great as an offensive player but has a good balance of skills that prevents him from being a liability at most of the aspects, you got Kuzy who was drafted 10 years ago and Vrana who seems to be having a breakout season but doesn't exactly look like a game breaker yet. The team overall looks good, I just don't get where people take this "They draft well and have a lot of NHL talent down in the minors" stuff. Lately their drafting isn't very good. Drafting well is when you draft and develop a young player to the point when he pushes an average vet out of the lineup. He prevents a team from an FA signing or unnecessary trade with the level of play he shows. Who's that guy in the lineup this season? Siegenthaler? One of the most limited players on the team and not due to inexperience. There's just not much he can do naturally. No shot, below average IQ, below average skating, not as physical as his size would suggest. With how many Ds they drafted last 5 years you'd think some of them would develop to the point where they'd be able to outplay players of Nick Jensen caliber. And they can't even do that. But whatever I'd have to say, people who are just blindly in love with their drafting would still be in love with their drafting. Whatever. That's why I replied to that fella with "Good" and moved on.

I have no issue with any of this opinion. We have one of the worst prospect pools in the league and the notion that you draft a player to be a potential 4th liner 7 years down the road seems absurd to me. That's just a wasted draft pick.

There are some extenuating circumstances. Caps have had a LOT of success and that has a huge negative drag on drafting. Still I agree. It sucks that Caps have to go to free agent market for players like Leipsic, Jensen, Hagelin, etc.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I haven't said that. Actually said that it was vice versa. I voiced my opinion that Hershey has little to no NHL talent and you said that the majority of young players is doing very good and I can't back up my point with anything hence what I'm saying sounds silly. I backed up my point a couple of posts above.

No, I asked what you are basing your opinion off of and asked specifically if you watched any of Hershey's games. You declined to answer those questions, which is why I made the assumption you are looking at stats and coming up with your own narrative on those said stats.

You want the Caps to draft players in the later rounds who have some type of hidden skillset where they turn into top 6 players, something that is extremely hard to do. The Caps top 6 currently is consisted of 5 players drafted in the 1st round by Washington and Oshie who was a 1st rounder with St. Louis. What does that tell you? To me, it's that hitting on 1st rounders, which Washington does quite a bit, is very important. Unfortunately those 1st round picks have been defensemen or Samsonov until last season with CMM who is looking to have top 6 potential

 

[Hivemind]

It's definitely hard to hit on later round prospects, but it's worth swinging at the fences sometimes. As has been reported by many scouts over the years, when it comes to later round picks, you should be taking the player with one or two standout skills that could be NHL grade rather than the "well rounded" kid that doesn't really have any part of their game grade out at a plus level at the NHL ranks.

The Capitals seem to do this with their later defensemen picks, gunning for players with at least one attribute that projects out at the NHL level, even if they still have shortcomings in other areas of their game. We've seen them picks guys like Djoos, Hobbs, Has, Geisser, Priskie, Carrick, and Lewington in the later rounds. Not all of them work out (and given their draft positions, having any of them work out is a success), but at least the Capitals are gunning for it on later pick D.

In large part, their forward selections tend to be more bland, with emphasis on hockey sense or heart/hustle/grit (and up until a couple years ago, heavy drafting from the USHL/NCAA development track). Perhaps you can argue hockey sense is the standout tool they're aiming for, but that's a hard one to project out. Gersich, AJF, and Protas are some notable exceptions, where they picked guys with standout physical tools. But you're never going to find the guys like Stone, Dzingel, Palat, or Byron unless you try for em.

 

[hb12xchamps]

 

[hb12xchamps]

7 straight wins

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

7 straight wins

That hustle by Alexeyev at 1:12... thing of beauty.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That hustle by Alexeyev at 1:12... thing of beauty.

very sweet play to break that up....