For those reasons, I think folks lining up behind either of these two tenders are basing their opinions on their gut, and their personal style preferences, rather than any "real" evidence. Either one of these guys could lead us to the promised land of playoffs (like that loser Dubnyk did for the Wild last season), or find himself sitting in the AHL with a 5.00 GAA (like Scrivens).
Couple things in Nilsson's favor though imo. He's bigger and younger and rightly or wrongly, those two things buy you more chances in this league.
You're not wrong and I'm far from a goalie expert but the way I see it, Talbot has way better fundamentals than Nilsson. When he's been good he's looked way better/more solid than Nilsson ever has. I think Nilsson relies way too much on his size, nothing about his game makes me feel good about having him in net, whereas Talbot has had stretches where he's showcased his potential.
All goalies go through bad stretches and Talbot's confidence is probably shot right now and I think it's pretty clear that he felt that he let the team down. That kind of thing can spiral out of control for goalies and I think the best way is just to play him a lot and let him get into his groove again, then again it's hard not to give Anders the starts because he's been better at this point but I think Talbot has way better chances of making it as a goalie in this league so maybe you just have to give him those starts until he figures it out and gets his confidence back.
I mean, this season in particular has proved that theory. Look at Rask and Bobrovsky:
Cam Talbot - 12 games, 3.09 GAA, .890 SVS%
Tuukka Rask - 13 games, 3.18 GAA, .890 SVS%
Sergei Bobrovsky - 16 games, 3.18 GAA, .894 SVS%
Both of those guys have almost identical stats to Talbot and they're both Vezina Trophy winners. Just goes to show how even some of the best guys can go through some absolutely awful stretches of play, which I guess is kind of what you were saying in your post anyway. But yeah, my point being that I think Talbot is very capable of improving those numbers and maybe ends up at .910 at least when it's all said and done, whereas I doubt Nilsson will ever be a consistent .910+ goalie. Rather I see him fluctuating around .900 similar to a certain Ondrej Pavelec.
If it comes down to it at the end of the season where we have to choose one over the other I think you keep whichever one has performed better this season.
I'll preface this by saying I have a penchant for big swedish goalies as I think Sweden has an excellent track record of producing big technically sound goalies who are late bloomers. Personally I think Nilsson has the better upside. In my opinion so far this year we've have the better chance to win with him in net and he's had the better numbers so far but not by much. He has the physical attributes you look for in a goalie, he was very good in SEL and for Swedish junior national teams. He was decent during his AHL/NHL stint of roughly 100 games over 3 years in a crowded NYI system. Also have to consider during that time he battled an ongoing illness that really hampered him during a crucial time in his career. Luckily he has that sorted out posted excellent numbers in the KHL last year, he's still young and coming into that age where goalies start to put it together, if we can get a high end goalie coach like Sean Burke here this is a big young swedish goalie that I would gamble on and keep in the organization at least till end of next year if possible.
I have watched Nilsson for most of his career and I've never been impressed by him. He was straight up bad during his time with the Isles and it doesn't look like he has improved since. I was hopeful that maybe his stint in the KHL had made him better, but then I saw him in the world championships and he was the same guy as he had always been. I think the numbers in KHL/euro leagues are kinda deceiving as goalies always tend to post better numbers there. Anders is probably very well suited for the euro game but he has yet to prove that he has what it takes to play in North America.
As I said, I think he is playing to the most of his capacity right now whereas I think Talbot isn't even close to his best. So basically, the way I see it, one guy is going through a tough stretch but is capable of much better while the other is what he is. So while he has better numbers right now that doesn't mean much to me. I'm confident it will show the longer the season goes on that Talbot is a better goalie and the one worth keeping around.