Has this off-season been a dissapointment?

[Nihiliste]

Objectively it met expectations but I’m salty about losing Barrie. We move forward in some areas and backwards on D between the trade and injuries so let’s see how it goes next year

 

[MarkT]

It says more about how closely you've read our posts if you've only noticed us mention Winnipeg; when Nashville, (pre-ROR trade) STL, Minny, SJ and plenty of other teams that failed to capitalize on their windows have been brought up by us as well. Winnipeg & Toronto are just the most recent examples to join that ever-expanding list.

PS - No the flyers weren't in on Hayes last summer, that's why he was forced to take a 1-year prove-it deal instead of the term he was looking for at under 6per.

So.. St Louis is a comparable - great! San Jose's "window" hasn't closed. Neither has Nashville's. Washington? Boston? Tampa?

I know we've had this argument over and over so there's no point, but I made my post because in this thread I'd only see you use Winnipeg, and that does seem to be your favorite comparable.

PS. Ahh it was about getting Hayes way back when. Do we have any solid idea what the asking price was back then?

 

[Pokecheque]

From being excited about signing Scott Hannan & Ryan Smyth as a kid to the façade of the Patrick Roy year, and all the other years of pure embarrassment, it's nice to finally look at this team and think good things. At least some of the senior citizens around here got to experience the golden years but for me the last two years have been by far the best experience as an Avs fan. Maybe I'm just drinking the Sea Eagles Kool-Aid but I think this offseason has definitely made us a better team while not really selling off our future to get there.

That’s funny, since I’m one of the senior citizens and when news broke the Avs signed Hannan and Smyth my first reaction was “Uh...okay.” The Avs had never been big players in free agency, and frankly the Kariya/Selanne thing almost doesn’t count. So to see the Avs splurge on two of the bigger names out there at the time was...strange.

 

[MarkT]

Because any reasonable team wouldn’t have given him all of that. The flyers are known to hand out stupid long term contracts exactly like the Hayes one. There’s also a good chance Hayes didn’t really want to sign in Philly and Philly had to offer him a contract like that to get him to stay. I think Hayes gets either 6.75+ or a NMC if he signs somewhere else, not both.

If Hayes didn't want to sign in Philly he could have just waited a few days. If you want to talk about when he was still with the Rangers that's a different story, but this past offseason there's no universe in which Hayes signs a reasonable deal with us because we know for a fact that the Philly insane offer is, was, and would be a thing.

 

[The Abusement Park]

If Hayes didn't want to sign in Philly he could have just waited a few days. If you want to talk about when he was still with the Rangers that's a different story, but this past offseason there's no universe in which Hayes signs a reasonable deal with us because we know for a fact that the Philly insane offer is, was, and would be a thing.

No I’m saying he could’ve not wanted to sign in Philly but then they offered that contract and how could he say no to all that?

And again Philly is known to offer stupid contracts so I really don’t think he would’ve got 7+ and a NMC from every other team interested. I could see a team overpaying to get rid of the NMC or a team giving him a NMC to lower the aav but not both.

 

[Pokecheque]

In the hypothetical situation where Sakic traded for Hayes do you really think Hayes would've gotten that exact contract here? No chance. And I've said my piece on Hayes and his contract. It's bad no doubt, but I think that was more about the Flyers incompetence than anything.

He was the most sought-after center on the market. Crazy as the Flyers are, he would’ve gotten something comparable in free agency.

 

[MarkT]

No I’m saying he could’ve not wanted to sign in Philly but then they offered that contract and how could he say no to all that?

And again Philly is known to offer stupid contracts so I really don’t think he would’ve got 7+ and a NMC from every other team interested. I could see a team overpaying to get rid of the NMC or a team giving him a NMC to lower the aav but not both.

I don't think he would have gotten the Philly contact from another team either... but he did get it from Philly. I thought your argument was that the Avs would have signed him for less. But my point is why would he take less money to sign here when the Philly offer would have convinced him to sign there - like it did in reality.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

So.. St Louis is a comparable - great! San Jose's "window" hasn't closed. Neither has Nashville's. Washington? Boston? Tampa?

I know we've had this argument over and over so there's no point, but I made my post because in this thread I'd only see you use Winnipeg, and that does seem to be your favorite comparable.

PS. Ahh it was about getting Hayes way back when. Do we have any solid idea what the asking price was back then?

As usual, no!

 

[cgf]

So.. St Louis is a comparable - great! San Jose's "window" hasn't closed. Neither has Nashville's. Washington? Boston? Tampa?

I know we've had this argument over and over so there's no point, but I made my post because in this thread I'd only see you use Winnipeg, and that does seem to be your favorite comparable.

PS. Ahh it was about getting Hayes way back when. Do we have any solid idea what the asking price was back then?

STL had to get their best player gifted to them after a decade of failure...I really hope Joe has a better plan than that...

SJ's initial window didn't close? My bad, I didn't realize that Jumbo & Marleau were still leading the Sharks to glory. Here I thought they had to open a 2nd window around Hertl, Meier, Kane and the next generation.

Anyways I've gotta run right now but should be back in an hour or so.

PS - ask Henchy about Hayes last summer, he remembers the asking price & what kind of contract he was looking for a lot better than I do.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

STL had to get their best player gifted to them after a decade of failure...I really hope Joe has a better plan than that...

SJ's initial window didn't close? My bad, I didn't realize that Jumbo & Marleau were still leading the Sharks to glory. Here I thought they had to open a 2nd window around Hertl, Meier, Kane and the next generation.

Anyways I've gotta run right now but should be back in an hour or so.

PS - ask Henchy about Hayes last summer, he remembers the asking price & what kind of contract he was looking for a lot better than I do.

People keep using the bold comment to show how the Blues wasted their opportunity prior to that trade but people could also use that comment to show how hard it is to acquire those last pieces required to win a cup. It's about perception IMO.

WIN made significant trades the last two years to acquire the pieces they needed to make the last step and that didn't go too well for them.

 

[henchman21]

Hayes could have been had for a 7 year deal in the 6s last summer... even if he was acquired during the season the price wouldn't have been over 7. He had teams after him and he knew there was no way he was staying in Winnipeg, so he used his leverage. With many of the contracts handed out this summer, 7m looks better and better for him... even if it is 1.5m higher than it should be.

 

[MarkT]

STL had to get their best player gifted to them after a decade of failure...I really hope Joe has a better plan than that...

SJ's initial window didn't close? My bad, I didn't realize that Jumbo & Marleau were still leading the Sharks to glory. Here I thought they had to open a 2nd window around Hertl, Meier, Kane and the next generation.

Anyways I've gotta run right now but should be back in an hour or so.

PS - ask Henchy about Hayes last summer, he remembers the asking price & what kind of contract he was looking for a lot better than I do.

I'll be gone in an hour so I'll leave you with this:

Whether San Jose's current contender status is a different "window" than the one with Jumbo and Marleau is a matter of semantics. My point is that they've managed to be a good team the entire time. There wasn't years of them at the bottom of the league between the "windows" you're talking about. They managed to maintain a consistently good team even as their core aged and managed to develop a new core to replace them. All while generally avoiding the kind of moves that might have won them one cup but also would mean they'd be a bad team by now.

As for St. Louis, it's not as if O'Reilly won them a cup on his own. And any cup win requires a ton of luck. I'll agree St. Louis isn't the best model but they have been a model for consistent success in terms of being a good team and making the playoffs. Personally I'd rather Sakic try to copy Nashville, San Jose, Boston, Tampa or Washington, which he seems to be doing.

 

[MarkT]

Hayes could have been had for a 7 year deal in the 6s last summer... even if he was acquired during the season the price wouldn't have been over 7. He had teams after him and he knew there was no way he was staying in Winnipeg, so he used his leverage. With many of the contracts handed out this summer, 7m looks better and better for him... even if it is 1.5m higher than it should be.

Last summer was he not property of the Rangers? So it would have been 7x6ish + assets to acquire him, no?

 

[henchman21]

Last summer was he not property of the Rangers? So it would have been 7x6ish + assets to acquire him, no?

Yeah... I don't think anybody claimed differently.

 

[MarkT]

Yeah... I don't think anybody claimed differently.

My point is it's kind of irrelevant what his contract would have been unless we also know what it would have taken to acquire him.

 

[The Abusement Park]

My point is it's kind of irrelevant what his contract would have been unless we also know what it would have taken to acquire him.

Probably a similar package to the deal that got him to WPG. 1st+.

 

[MarkT]

Probably a similar package to the deal that got him to WPG. 1st+.

That was a trade deadline rental deal. I thought we were talking about a last summer deal. That would mean different prices.

 

[Nihiliste]

I’m not a fan of Kevin Hayes. The guy is just a slightly rich man’s Soderberg, not the type of guy to give a 7 year deal to.

If there was a chance to get Zib without a kings ransom I would have been interested. But I doubt Dorion wanted to give us a good deal right on the heels of the Duchene trade

 

[henchman21]

My point is it's kind of irrelevant what his contract would have been unless we also know what it would have taken to acquire him.

A 1st and B prospect or 2 2nds + B prospect... these values are not all that hard to figure out with trades that happen. Hayes would have solved the issue last year with a younger player, but had to give up some futures. Stastny could have solved the issue for 'free' but would have a large cap hit. The Avs solved the issue this year by giving up a very significant asset for a guy on a very good deal for 3 seasons (re-signing will cost 9+ if the Avs want to).

 

[henchman21]

That was a trade deadline rental deal. I thought we were talking about a last summer deal. That would mean different prices.

Prices actually tend to be less in the summer than at the deadline... doesn't make sense logically, but the proof is there.

 

[The Abusement Park]

That was a trade deadline rental deal. I thought we were talking about a last summer deal. That would mean different prices.

I don’t think the difference in price would’ve been that different 5 months prior.

 

[MarkT]

A 1st and B prospect or 2 2nds + B prospect... these values are not all that hard to figure out with trades that happen. Hayes would have solved the issue last year with a younger player, but had to give up some futures. Stastny could have solved the issue for 'free' but would have a large cap hit. The Avs solved the issue this year by giving up a very significant asset for a guy on a very good deal for 3 seasons (re-signing will cost 9+ if the Avs want to).

Which 1st? Which prospect? I think the values are hard to figure out because there are tons of factors that go into trades. And if Hayes was available at this price, why did no one trade for him?

 

[henchman21]

Which 1st? Which prospect? I think the values are hard to figure out because there are tons of factors that go into trades. And if Hayes was available at this price, why did no one trade for him?

Top 10 protected 1st and somebody like Meloche... Teams didn't trade for him because they didn't want to pay him $6m or approaching it. Teams tend to be fairly conservative on other teams RFAs (but go wild on UFAs). Hayes bet on himself and won. A forward looking team could have had a pretty solid contract and player for term if they had paid a price. It would be a year shorter than now and for a half millionish less per AAV.

 

[chet1926]

For the most part I'm ok with the offseason. Key word is ok. I felt with our cap space, we should be have been a bit more aggressive.

Maybe strong arm some teams with an offer sheet or be more aggressive in the trade front to really solidify the secondary scoring. It's not our fault teams like Tampa are in a bit of a cap crunch.

Overall it wasn't too bad, but it could have been better and I feel we are pretty much in the same position as last year, fighting for a wildcard. I still think St Louis, Winnipeg and Nashville are all better than us, plus I feel Dallas might have vaulted us as well.

 

[MarkT]

Top 10 protected 1st and somebody like Meloche... Teams didn't trade for him because they didn't want to pay him $6m or approaching it. Teams tend to be fairly conservative on other teams RFAs (but go wild on UFAs). Hayes bet on himself and won. A forward looking team could have had a pretty solid contract and player for term if they had paid a price. It would be a year shorter than now and for a half millionish less per AAV.

Okay so given all the factors I'd still rather have Kadri + Newhook and Meloche than Hayes (a year earlier) + an expiring Barrie + Kerfoot.

• Kadri is a clear 50+ point player (and potential 30 goal scorer) on an amazing deal that expires at the perfect time for us given the rest of of our contract situations. We won't need to re-sign him if we don't want to.
• Newhook is Kadri's potential replacement who should ideally also be ready at the perfect time.
• Meloche is a magic bean, but I like having a lot of those.

• Hayes is a clear 40+ point player who even in an ideal scenario is on an average-at-best deal on a term that doesn't help us at all. Even his biggest fans seem to accept he'll regress to 3rd line level within the next half dozen years.
• Barrie was never going to be worth the 8x8 deal he wants given our depth at the D position
• Kerfoot leaving was probably a net positive because I'd rather pay players who fit their role better, and he was doomed to a bottom 6 role with this team IMO.