Has this off-season been a dissapointment?

[henchman21]

Okay so given all the factors I'd still rather have Kadri + Newhook and Meloche than Hayes (a year earlier) + an expiring Barrie + Kerfoot.

• Kadri is a clear 50+ point player (and potential 30 goal scorer) on an amazing deal that expires at the perfect time for us given the rest of of our contract situations. We won't need to re-sign him if we don't want to.
• Newhook is Kadri's potential replacement who should ideally also be ready at the perfect time.
• Meloche is a magic bean, but I like having a lot of those.

• Hayes is a clear 40+ point player who even in an ideal scenario is on an average-at-best deal on a term that doesn't help us at all. Even his biggest fans seem to accept he'll regress to 3rd line level within the next half dozen years.
• Barrie was never going to be worth the 8x8 deal he wants given our depth at the D position
• Kerfoot leaving was probably a net positive because I'd rather pay players who fit their role better, and he was doomed to a bottom 6 role with this team IMO.

Let's throw in another factor... Stastny on a 4 year 7m per deal. To me, Stastny + Barrie + Newhook + Kerfoot (as much as I'm not a fan of his) + Meloche is better than Kadri + Newhook + Meloche. Even if you think Barrie shouldn't be re-signed (crazy to me), you now can use him to get a top flight winger to go on the 2nd line and the Avs are not giving up a 2nd/3rd to get a reclamation project. You can play this game round and round forever... many ways to skin a cat.

 

[cgf]

People keep using the bold comment to show how the Blues wasted their opportunity prior to that trade but people could also use that comment to show how hard it is to acquire those last pieces required to win a cup. It's about perception IMO.

WIN made significant trades the last two years to acquire the pieces they needed to make the last step and that didn't go too well for them.

That's not a bad point in general, but I just don't think it jibes with this particular case given what Armstrong did for so many years. He wasn't hunting that 1C who could've put them over the top years ago; he was p***yfooting around with cheaper non-solutions and focusing on other positions, while capable 1Cs moved to other teams.


...and that's why my biggest lesson from Winnipeg's failure is to not wait too long to get started on solving problems. Chevy failed because he waited far too long to start trying to address their holes...and to a lesser extent because they never really committed to getting 100% solutions; instead, settling for short-term half-measures...leaving them with just a swing or two at the cup with all of the pieces in place. Pieces that they never gave enough time to, to settle in, because Chevy relied on TDL rentals instead of getting solutions in, in time for camp.

That's why I wanted to get started last summer and give ourselves as many swings at the cup with the necessary personnel as possible.

 

[henchman21]

That's why I wanted to get started last summer and give ourselves as many swings at the cup with the necessary personnel as possible.

Same... to me it is as simple as last season could have opened a 5 season window. Now a 4 season window is being opened. Cut 20% off just by waiting too long. I'm glad Sakic learned from projecting younger players into too big of roles and made a move to fix that. Prior to the Kadri trade, it seemed like that 5 year was going to get shrunk to 3. Which would have been closing in on the Winnipeg path.

To me, the summer was fairly simple... the Avs had to fix the #2C spot and add some depth up front to support the younger players. The expectation was to get that done, and they met that expectation. It cost a few good pieces, but better to cost and fix something than to sit and overproject. If Sakic had managed fixing the #2C spot without costing Barrie, it would have exceeded expectations.

 

[Pokecheque]

Objectively it met expectations but I’m salty about losing Barrie. We move forward in some areas and backwards on D between the trade and injuries so let’s see how it goes next year

I'll say this: If there was a time to "sell high" on Tyson Barrie, this offseason was it.

No I’m saying he could’ve not wanted to sign in Philly but then they offered that contract and how could he say no to all that?

And again Philly is known to offer stupid contracts so I really don’t think he would’ve got 7+ and a NMC from every other team interested. I could see a team overpaying to get rid of the NMC or a team giving him a NMC to lower the aav but not both.

I don't think he would have gotten the Philly contact from another team either... but he did get it from Philly. I thought your argument was that the Avs would have signed him for less. But my point is why would he take less money to sign here when the Philly offer would have convinced him to sign there - like it did in reality.

Part and parcel of the "bidding war" for Hayes was what kinds of terms teams were offering. Avs were reportedly in on him until they got out of control. I personally think that's going to be one of the worst signings of this year, but hey, it's the Philly Fly-by-the-seats-of-their-pantses, so I'm not surprised. I'm fine with Sakic opting not to get in on that craziness, nor do I blame him for steering clear at the deadline. Despite his obvious talent and hockey sense, I still think Hayes is wildly overrated. But Philly agreed to those terms because he would have gotten a comparable deal elsewhere. He's the modern-day Bobby Holik.

I'm guessing they're going to revamp the "talking period" before free agency in some way for next season. I agree with some GMs that it's way too long, and also, they need to drop the bullshit pretense. It's strictly forbidden for teams to discuss terms with players and agents, but somehow magically those terms get laid out in record time the moment the clock strikes 12 noon on July 1st.

 

[cgf]

I'll be gone in an hour so I'll leave you with this:

Whether San Jose's current contender status is a different "window" than the one with Jumbo and Marleau is a matter of semantics. My point is that they've managed to be a good team the entire time. There wasn't years of them at the bottom of the league between the "windows" you're talking about. They managed to maintain a consistently good team even as their core aged and managed to develop a new core to replace them. All while generally avoiding the kind of moves that might have won them one cup but also would mean they'd be a bad team by now.

As for St. Louis, it's not as if O'Reilly won them a cup on his own. And any cup win requires a ton of luck. I'll agree St. Louis isn't the best model but they have been a model for consistent success in terms of being a good team and making the playoffs. Personally I'd rather Sakic try to copy Nashville, San Jose, Boston, Tampa or Washington, which he seems to be doing.

You call it semantics, I call it the very thing I've been discussing this entire time

I have never claimed a team needed to bottom out during a retool the way that they do during a rebuild. In fact I have specifically made this point...referencing pre-Kessel/post-cup Pittsburgh and the way they continually made the post-season without being real cup contenders in any sense but the "any team technically has a shot as long as they get in" one...countless times when folks have asked what happens after Window 1 closes but before Window 2 opens.

Having to get rid of some Compher's & Donskoi's to pay up for our core won't leave us in the lottery and despite the strawmen I've never suggested it would...but it will rob our core of some of the depth that we can afford for these next 4/5 seasons, if not a lesser core piece, and we'll need some time for cap rises + the futures we bring in for the cap we have to shed, to allow us to contend seriously, again.

We'd basically spend a few seasons as what the pre-ROR Blues were or what Minny was for all those years before they fell apart...except it would only be a temporary phase for us, not our peak...and I wouldn't call any iteration of the Suter & Parise era Wild true contenders despite their regular playoff appearances.


SJ had to build an entirely new core before becoming genuine contenders again and that's a whole different process than what y'all are arguing for, unless I've misunderstood your point...I mean, I haven't seen many posts saying they're cool with failing to win a cup before MacK becomes a bottom 6er at best, like Jumbo has...so that's not exactly a model for "success" that I would be thrilled with following.

We're already as good as -- and closer to contending -- than STL ever was before ROR...as adding an adequate 2C + top 6 winger is typically a lot easier than adding a cup caliber 1C...so I really don't think they're a model for us, or teach us anything other than how important it is to actually fill the holes preventing you from contending with real solutions.

And I dunno about you, but I'm not exactly jealous of the results Nashville has actually achieved, despite their blueline factory

 

[cgf]

Same... to me it is as simple as last season could have opened a 5 season window. Now a 4 season window is being opened. Cut 20% off just by waiting too long. I'm glad Sakic learned from projecting younger players into too big of roles and made a move to fix that. Prior to the Kadri trade, it seemed like that 5 year was going to get shrunk to 3. Which would have been closing in on the Winnipeg path.

To me, the summer was fairly simple... the Avs had to fix the #2C spot and add some depth up front to support the younger players. The expectation was to get that done, and they met that expectation. It cost a few good pieces, but better to cost and fix something than to sit and overproject. If Sakic had managed fixing the #2C spot without costing Barrie, it would have exceeded expectations.

Yup, even if our cup chances are a little better in each of these 4 years, a 5th year of contention would've improved our odds of a cup or two before MacK's extension more than that marginal annual upgrade...that I'm not even sold that we achieved with Barrie having to have been sacrificed in place of a pick who will contribute more to the retool than to this 1st window.

 

[klozge]

Byram, Newhook, Kadri, no more Kerfoot.... I love this off-season.

 

[Ceremony]

Where is the option for Yes - Matthew Duchene now plays for a division rival?

 

[The Abusement Park]

And I dunno about you, but I'm not exactly jealous of the results Nashville has actually achieved, despite their blueline factory

Yeah I’ve been pretty unimpressed with how Nashville’s window ended up considering all the talent they have/had on their blue line. But I respect that they tried to fill their biggest holes in 1C and 2c even if it ended up not working out for them.

 

[henchman21]

Nashville needs to move away from Rinne... should have done it a while ago...

They are going to be relying on their strong defensive development to fill their biggest gaps. They must really believe in Fabbro.

 

[cgf]

Yeah I’ve been pretty unimpressed with how Nashville’s window ended up considering all the talent they have/had on their blue line. But I respect that they tried to fill their biggest holes in 1C and 2c even if it ended up not working out for them.

Yeah, especially since I think they could've beat Pittsburgh had RyJo been healthy & Rinne not imploded.

...but I do sometimes wonder if the years of dire-bluelines that we had to suffer through, hasn't caused us as a fanbase to over-glorify Nashville and overblow the importance of having elite blueline depth that goes more than 4/5 deep. The Hawks blueline fell off a cliff behind the top 4 during their cups, Pittsburgh's blueline was never their strength or particularly stacked, even the Kings'...who won their cups with a much more defensive style than is currently common...blueline had an unspectacular 3rd pairing compared to the Preds, but they did have great depth at C.

Obviously we saw how much of a difference it makes to have two pairings that can tilt the ice for you and get into opposing teams' heads with their puck-moving & -retrieval, and we were only felled when SJ's two elite RHBs took the games by the scruff of the neck. So I'm not arguing against the importance of having a top tier top 4 at all...I mean that was the reason why I wanted to keep Barrie & eventually dump EJ's money instead...just something I wonder about sometimes.

 

[OwenNolan]

Let's throw in another factor... Stastny on a 4 year 7m per deal. To me, Stastny + Barrie + Newhook + Kerfoot (as much as I'm not a fan of his) + Meloche is better than Kadri + Newhook + Meloche. Even if you think Barrie shouldn't be re-signed (crazy to me), you now can use him to get a top flight winger to go on the 2nd line and the Avs are not giving up a 2nd/3rd to get a reclamation project. You can play this game round and round forever... many ways to skin a cat.

Kadri is far better than Stastny.

 

[Nihiliste]

Keeping Barrie over EJ is definitely what I would have preferred, personally. But I can see why Sakic feels they couldn’t afford it

 

[OwenNolan]

Objectively it met expectations but I’m salty about losing Barrie. We move forward in some areas and backwards on D between the trade and injuries so let’s see how it goes next year

It still amazes me how people think we are moving backwards on our D.

Even if Johnson and Cole miss some time:

Additions from last year:

Cale Makar
Bowen Byram
Kevin Connauton
Connor Timmins
Calle Rosen
Ryan Graves*

Subtractions

Tyson Barrie
Patrick Nemeth

It makes no sense to me. And for the re-sign Barrie crowd; where would the money come from? Who would you choose to lose from the guys we have to resign coming up (Landeskog, Girard, Grubauer, Zadorov etc)

 

[henchman21]

Kadri is far better than Stastny.

Where did I say Stastny was better?

Far better is a stretch though. Both are good #2Cs... Stastny is older, injury prone, but better when the games change in magnitude. Kadri is younger, more physical, but loses his head. Both are very good #2Cs.

 

[Pokecheque]

Kadri is far better than Stastny.

I wouldn't go that far. I think right now that Kadri is indeed the better player, but mostly because he's younger and comes with a better contract. But I don't think the difference between the two players is massive. Stastny is still a legit top line/2C in the league, who can play with virtually any winger you put him with, and is a factor at both ends of the ice.

But I'm also not crying over and spilled milk when it comes to Stazz. It doesn't sound like there was a ton of interest on either side to reunite. They both went through the motions, but very little came of it.

I still don't fault the Avs for taking one more year to assess what they had, the disaster of 2016-17 was only one year in their rear view, and I don't buy the blanket notion that top players are always available every offseason to every team, specifically centers. Again, one of the top FA signings one summer ago was James Neal, fresh off back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances. I agree some teams (like the Jets) can wait way too long, but I don't think trying to "go for it" after one surprise appearance in the postseason was necessarily the way to go.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yeah, especially since I think they could've beat Pittsburgh had RyJo been healthy & Rinne not imploded.

...but I do sometimes wonder if the years of dire-bluelines that we had to suffer through, hasn't caused us as a fanbase to over-glorify Nashville and overblow the importance of having elite blueline depth that goes more than 4/5 deep. The Hawks blueline fell off a cliff behind the top 4 during their cups, Pittsburgh's blueline was never their strength or particularly stacked, even the Kings'...who won their cups with a much more defensive style than is currently common...blueline had an unspectacular 3rd pairing compared to the Preds, but they did have great depth at C.

Obviously we saw how much of a difference it makes to have two pairings that can tilt the ice for you and get into opposing teams' heads with their puck-moving & -retrieval, and we were only felled when SJ's two elite RHBs took the games by the scruff of the neck. So I'm not arguing against the importance of having a top tier top 4 at all...I mean that was the reason why I wanted to keep Barrie & eventually dump EJ's money instead...just something I wonder about sometimes.

I’ve always said 1C is far more important for winning a cup than a 1D. I’d much rather have an elite 1-2 punch at C than at D and I think what you said kind of proves that point. We have a elite 1-2 punch at C imo, but I think moving Barrie has made our backend a little green to truly for a Cup next year imo.

 

[henchman21]

I still don't fault the Avs for taking one more year to assess what they had, the disaster of 2016-17 was only one year in their rear view, and I don't buy the blanket notion that top players are always available every offseason to every team, specifically centers. Again, one of the top FA signings one summer ago was James Neal, fresh off back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances. I agree some teams (like the Jets) can wait way too long, but I don't think trying to "go for it" after one surprise appearance in the postseason was necessarily the way to go.

Then why do they change hands every season? Just this summer Kadri, Duchene, Hayes, and Miller are guys who are centers or can play center at a high level and have changed hands.

 

[cgf]

Then why do they change hands every season? Just this summer Kadri, Duchene, Hayes, and Miller are guys who are centers or can play center at a high level and have changed hands.

It's nice to be reminded that sometimes you are just sooooo wrong

 

[cgf]

Keeping Barrie over EJ is definitely what I would have preferred, personally. But I can see why Sakic feels they couldn’t afford it

I'd be more ok with it if I was sure that that was all it was...but I can't help but worry that this decision was more about not wanting to cut EJ after he was a good soldier through the dark days, than it was about not wanting to spend the ~2M more for the massive upgrade (Tyson) + the 1st & b-prospect that addressing our 2C would've cost elsewise.

 

[henchman21]

It's nice to be reminded that sometimes you are just sooooo wrong

You must not remember Stammer-Miller-Kuch

Miller is the ultimate swiss army knife forward... any top 9 spot with the right support.

 

[cgf]

I’ve always said 1C is far more important for winning a cup than a 1D. I’d much rather have an elite 1-2 punch at C than at D and I think what you said kind of proves that point. We have a elite 1-2 punch at C imo, but I think moving Barrie has made our backend a little green to truly for a Cup next year imo.

You need both unless you literally have the 2 best centers in the game as your 1-2 punch, but I certainly place much more value on having a more highend forward talent in front of your highend top 4, than I do on having more than 4 top 4 guys...and would prefer my most elite player be up front, although I certainly won't complain if Cale/Nate becomes a Doughty/Kopi situation


We do, but for how long? Kadri will need an expensive new deal in 3 years and turns 29 in october. So I'd imagine that Joe is hoping that Newhook or Jost will have become cup caliber 2Cs by then; since I have my doubts about whether he wants to pay Kadri 9M a year into his 30s. Which could well happen, but I need to see Newhook at higher levels before I feel good about it.

Otherwise, this could put even more of a clock on this first window that we sacrificed Tyson to open as soon as our blueline catches back up...and then there's the Bura question & whether we'll pay to upgrade upon him if he doesn't cut it, or if we'll just hope that Jost / Newhook / Kaut can fill out the top 6 in place of Bura, quickly enough to capitalize on this cap window.


So I like where we are...but we need to be ready to make the final moves that could become necessary if our secondary kids aren't ready fast enough & our stop-gaps aren't up to the challenge...even if Anaheim is unlikely to let us turn Jost & Timmins into Rakell & Manson for a couple of firsts

 

[cgf]

You must not remember Stammer-Miller-Kuch

Miller is the ultimate swiss army knife forward... any top 9 spot with the right support.

He can just be so dumb sometimes...and unlike Zads, his smile doesn't make me forget about his repeated brainfarts

 

[Pokecheque]

Then why do they change hands every season? Just this summer Kadri, Duchene, Hayes, and Miller are guys who are centers or can play center at a high level and have changed hands.

That doesn't mean that there are 30 ready and waiting teams for every 1 center that becomes available. For instance, just because Domi and Galchenyuk were swapped for one another doesn't mean that a whole slew of other teams could've just waltzed in there and gotten either player IMO.

Circumstances play a part. Nazem Kadri wasn't available last offseason, but he was available a year later after Babs got fed up with him. They ended up getting, at least on paper, the perfect second-line center for this team. Waiting a year for that, while also making the postseason and pulling off a thrilling first-round upset while also being one game away from the WCF is fine with me. They're making steps toward the goal, and they took a BIG one this summer. You seem to be advocating they sprint the moment there's signs of life, and they did that once already.

 

[The Abusement Park]

You need both unless you literally have the 2 best centers in the game as your 1-2 punch, but I certainly place much more value on having a more highend forward talent in front of your highend top 4, than I do on having more than 4 top 4 guys...and would prefer my most elite player be up front, although I certainly won't complain if Cale/Nate becomes a Doughty/Kopi situation


We do, but for how long? Kadri will need an expensive new deal in 3 years and turns 29 in october. So I'd imagine that Joe is hoping that Newhook or Jost will have become cup caliber 2Cs by then; since I have my doubts about whether he wants to pay Kadri 9M a year into his 30s. Which could well happen, but I need to see Newhook at higher levels before I feel good about it.

Otherwise, this could put even more of a clock on this first window that we sacrificed Tyson to open as soon as our blueline catches back up...and then there's the Bura question & whether we'll pay to upgrade upon him if he doesn't cut it, or if we'll just hope that Jost / Newhook / Kaut can fill out the top 6 in place of Bura, quickly enough to capitalize on this cap window.


So I like where we are...but we need to be ready to make the final moves that could become necessary if our secondary kids aren't ready fast enough & our stop-gaps aren't up to the challenge...even if Anaheim is unlikely to let us turn Jost & Timmins into Rakell & Manson for a couple of firsts

Oh I’m not saying you can win with a rag tag defense at all. I’m just saying there’s more cases of teams winning with less elite defenses than teams with not that great 1-2 punches at C. Obviously you need to be well rounded to even have a chance and I think over the next 4 years we should be set up very well to compete. But now our drafting* is going have to be even better to set us up for the 2nd window that we’re gonna have to re open in 6 years or so. Luckily I think our defense is very well set up for the next 7-8 years so as long as we can draft a top 6 C that can play in 5 years I think opening a 2nd window should be a reasonable ask.

*but without drafting this could also be it, who knows.