jimmycarter
Registered User
- Jun 12, 2010
- 4,432
- 266
I took exactly his best stretch in the calculation. His best 10 games were in the beginning of his current game streak, 17 points.
He never keeps his level of play after the hot start. If you take the first 10 games of his current streak, and add 72 games played at the ppg-level he has played for the last 33 games, he ends up with 33 goals, 43 assists and 76 points.
If I was forced to bet on his whole season totals, I'd bet that he'd get under 80 points.
Which is a fair indication that your analysis here is bunk....
PPG average | |
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) | 1,514 |
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) | 0,837 |
PPG average | |
1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games) | 1,200 |
Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games) | 0,826 |
% of pointless games | % |
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) | 14,29 % |
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) | 44,21 % |
GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | |
Last 5 games | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 |
Last 10 games | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 |
Last 20 games | 20 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -10 |
Last 47 games | 47 | 18 | 22 | 40 | -20 |
PPG average | |
Last 5 games | 0,400 |
Last 10 games | 0,700 |
Last 20 games | 0,750 |
Last 47 games | 0,851 |
The Regular Season is over, let's see how the stats predicted Matthews' play. (This thread was made on March 8th, and he played 15 more games after that.)
Here is the updated version of the graph showing Auston Matthews' PPG averages for each of his game streaks in his career. (His latest game streak of 57 games ended up with an average of 1.00 ppg before the playoffs)
View attachment 210419
I also updated some of the other stats I posted in this thread. His PPG averages for the first 5 games vs the rest:
The first 10 games vs the rest:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average 1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) 1,514 Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) 0,837
Percentage of pointless games:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average 1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games) 1,200 Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games) 0,826
His stats from last games of the season 2018-2019:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
% of pointless games % 1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) 14,29 % Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) 44,21 %
PPG Averages for those games:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
GP G A PTS +/- Last 5 games 5 1 1 2 -5 Last 10 games 10 3 4 7 -3 Last 20 games 20 7 8 15 -10 Last 47 games 47 18 22 40 -20
Here is also the +/- -graph for his latest game streak of 57 games (cumulative):[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average Last 5 games 0,400 Last 10 games 0,700 Last 20 games 0,750 Last 47 games 0,851
View attachment 210423
Some other stats from the season for Matthews:
In the League stats:
P/GP #21
P/60 #13
P1/60 #8
PP P/60 #15
PP P1/60 #5
Corsica - Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -stat:
Toronto
Matthews #3
War/82: #3
War/60: #2
League
War: #35
War/82: #39
War/60: #22
Evolving Hockey - Goals Above Replacement (GAR) -stat, skaters:
League: N/A
Toronto: #5
View attachment 210425
Dubas will have a tough time justifying that 11,634M$/season conract. He is not even near top2 in any other category than salary.
Based on these stats I predict that Matthews would have gotten about 76-78 points in the season 2018-19, if he would have played the entire, full season.
It’s really strange you seem to have made it your life’s work to create an account for the sole purpose of finding arbitrary slices of point production over time to project them into doom and gloom on Matthews’ contract.
Just come to grips and admit it. It's a terrible contract for the team, a terrible horrible contract worthy of every last bit of criticism it gets.
Sure whatever man. “Not much better than the Clarkson contract”
I said relatively. It's just not a good deal and that won't change until he is beating McDavid some years in the scoring race.
He out scores McDavid on the regular.
I am not like you. I don't cherrypick certain stats and just use said stats to explain things away. Goals ... Ok, well Stamkos signed 5 yrs @ 11.5% Cap under similar circumstances. He had just won the Rocket too.
It's too easy to make messes of the arguments for the Matthews contract.
He's more likely to be around the top 20ish.He was #42 in points in the league. #17 in goals.
Playing a full season, he would've been somewhere around #33 in points.
He's an elite goal scorer, top 2-3 in the league since he debuted. That justifies it.The Regular Season is over, let's see how the stats predicted Matthews' play. (This thread was made on March 8th, and he played 15 more games after that.)
Here is the updated version of the graph showing Auston Matthews' PPG averages for each of his game streaks in his career. (His latest game streak of 57 games ended up with an average of 1.00 ppg before the playoffs)
View attachment 210419
I also updated some of the other stats I posted in this thread. His PPG averages for the first 5 games vs the rest:
The first 10 games vs the rest:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average 1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) 1,514 Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) 0,837
Percentage of pointless games:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average 1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games) 1,200 Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games) 0,826
His stats from last games of the season 2018-2019:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
% of pointless games % 1st 5 games of each game streak (35games) 14,29 % Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games) 44,21 %
PPG Averages for those games:[TBODY] [/TBODY]
GP G A PTS +/- Last 5 games 5 1 1 2 -5 Last 10 games 10 3 4 7 -3 Last 20 games 20 7 8 15 -10 Last 47 games 47 18 22 40 -20
Here is also the +/- -graph for his latest game streak of 57 games (cumulative):[TBODY] [/TBODY]
PPG average Last 5 games 0,400 Last 10 games 0,700 Last 20 games 0,750 Last 47 games 0,851
View attachment 210423
Some other stats from the season for Matthews:
In the League stats:
P/GP #21
P/60 #13
P1/60 #8
PP P/60 #15
PP P1/60 #5
Corsica - Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -stat:
Toronto
Matthews #3
War/82: #3
War/60: #2
League
War: #35
War/82: #39
War/60: #22
Evolving Hockey - Goals Above Replacement (GAR) -stat, skaters:
League: N/A
Toronto: #5
View attachment 210425
Dubas will have a tough time justifying that 11,634M$/season conract. He is not even near top2 in any other category than salary.
Based on these stats I predict that Matthews would have gotten about 76-78 points in the season 2018-19, if he would have played the entire, full season.
The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.
Matthews got paid because he scores a **** ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.
I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but **** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.
I've said for months he plays better angry and that the leafs should hire me to slap him in the face before every shift and rip on his mamaRemember last game when he got decked and then he turned it on for a shift or two? Such a difference in play. One can only hope that his somewhat lethargic play lately is indicative of him saving energy for the post season. I imagine he’s focused on redeeming himself for his low playoff production last year. We will crush Boston if Matthews gets going.
I am not like you. I don't cherrypick certain stats and just use said stats to explain things away. Goals ... Ok, well Stamkos signed 5 yrs @ 11.5% Cap under similar circumstances. He had just won the Rocket too.
It's too easy to make messes of the arguments for the Matthews contract.
He scored at 47 goal pace, actually under that. You know who actually got 47 goals or more? JT Ovi and Drai and guess who got 45... Stamkos. You know the guy that got his 11.5% contract for 5 years after winning THE ROCKET!!!
He's more likely to be around the top 20ish.
It’s really strange you seem to have made it your life’s work to create an account for the sole purpose of finding arbitrary slices of point production over time to project them into doom and gloom on Matthews’ contract.
The people here that love Dubas and the "deal" aren't with us here in reality. If you consider the Clarkson contract bad for the 3m overpay or whatever, this ones different but not much better relatively. It's a 3million overpay on a 5 year term.
I know calling someone an idiot is harsh, but Dubas is an idiot for signing that deal.
Sure whatever man. “Not much better than the Clarkson contract”
Didn't you, just 5 posts above writing this, accuse someone of "finding arbitrary slices of point production over time" and projecting them?He out scores McDavid on the regular.
The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.
Matthews got paid because he scores a **** ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.
I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but **** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.