Graph: Matthews PPG as the season goes on & he plays consecutive games

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Well, Clarkson was 29 years old when signing that deal, coming from another team to a relatively bad Leafs team. That was UFA money all the way

Matthews was coming out of his ELC, and he sold only one (1) year of UFA status.

McDavid sold 3 UFA-years at 12,5M$ per, and he had an MVP and an Art Ross.

So it's quite easy to claim that Matthews' contract is relatively even more expensive than McDavid's, and that his deal is probably almost as bad overpayment as the Clarkson deal

McDavid got Art Ross and MVP based on team factors. Leafs have a ton more offensive depth and haven’t made it to the conference finals.

Considering the amount of ice time that affords mcdavid, Matthews produces 10-15% less points but like 30% more goals. He gets paid for scoring goals, kinda like Ovy.

UFA vs RFA has very little sway when you’re already one of the best players in the league since you stepped on the ice at 19.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Still not grasping the ice time thing. No worries cherry pick whatever feeds your bias. You’ll forever be stumped on contracts until you understand how all the professionals evaluate performance.

The chart above shows that Matthews numbers dramatically falter as the season progresses and he gets fatigued.
Your solution to his poor performance when fatigued?

"Give him far more ice time and he'll produce more." I don't even know if you're just messing with us at this point.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

As you can see, my latest post also has his P/60 stats etc, and NOT ONE of them justifies him being top2 in salary.

His ice-time is "low", because he clearly gets tired. He just doesn't have the endurance. Take any stretch of games after he has played at least 10 games in a row, and you'll see that he's not anywhere near top2 in the league in anything. And his ice-time isn't really that low, eg Stamkos and Bergeron were lower.

You could also claim that he's getting off easy, Tavares and Marner take the tougher opposition, and start less in the offensive zone.

Your post is projecting based on small samples and PDO swings. I don’t have time for that cherry picking nonsense. It doesn’t even include what he mostly gets paid for. You included WAR but not even his goal scoring smh

 

[Throw More Waffles]

McDavid got Art Ross and MVP based on team factors. Leafs have a ton more offensive depth and haven’t made it to the conference finals.

Considering the amount of ice time that affords mcdavid, Matthews produces 10-15% less points but like 30% more goals. He gets paid for scoring goals, kinda like Ovy.

UFA vs RFA has very little sway when you’re already one of the best players in the league since you stepped on the ice at 19.

Ovechkin topped 100 points twice during his elc. He wasn't a "40 goal/60-70 point guy" like Matthews. (Remember... saying "Matthews just gets hurt all of the time" isn't a good argument for Matthews.")

And we were told thousands of times in Nylander vs Pastrnak contract threads that his career high in goals being 14 less than Pastrnak "didn't matter" because contracts are only awarded for points.
There is NO consistency.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Such a waste of time. Log out and go back to your team board. Probably the Jets.

 

[Superstar]

The chart above shows that Matthews numbers dramatically falter as the season progresses and he gets fatigued.
Your solution to his poor performance when fatigued?

"Give him far more ice time and he'll produce more." I don't even know if you're just messing with us at this point.

Some folks don't understand that people are different: Ovechvin is a horse, so is McDavid - these guys could play 25 plus minutes a night, night in and night out and still flourish. So they think that if you only play Matthews more, then he'll be like them too. That pp60min stat is one of the biggest lies because it's not linear over 60 min.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Some folks don't understand that people are different: Ovechvin is a horse, so is McDavid - these guys could play 25 plus minutes a night, night in and night out and still flourish. So they think that if you only play Matthews more, then he'll be like them too. That pp60min stat is one of the biggest lies.

Don’t know for sure until you try it, but it’s a bit disingenuous to call it a big lie. Leafs ice time management is fairly well discussed in the open and offensive depth is further reducing load, not because players are tired. Tavares is getting least amount of minutes since his rookie season.

 

[Superstar]

Don’t know for sure until you try it, but it’s a bit disingenuous to call it a big lie. Leafs ice time management is fairly well discussed in the open and offensive depth is further reducing load, not because players are tired. Tavares is getting least amount of minutes since his rookie season.

The pp60min stat is "disingenous" to use your term because it paints a very inaccurate picture due to it not being a linear stat (sorry, I edited my comment above to mention that it's not a linear stat). Tavares is also playing with Marner, a caliber of a winger he's never had. Also, his shooting percentage this year is quite a bit higher than his career average.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Your post is projecting based on small samples and PDO swings. I don’t have time for that cherry picking nonsense. It doesn’t even include what he mostly gets paid for. You included WAR but not even his goal scoring smh

Actually, this exact argument has already been proven false in this thread. I have already proven with high statistical probability that his low averages in the last games of his streaks are NOT due to luck.

The sample sizes are already quite large. He has 7 different game streaks in his career, and every single time he has had more points in the first 10 games or so than after that.

Here is the picture of the sample size calculator results I posted earlier in the thread:

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The pp60min stat is "disingenous" to use your term (sorry, I edited my comment above to mention that it's not a linear stat). Tavares is also playing with Marner, a caliber of a winger he's never had. Also, his shooting percentage this year is quite a bit higher than his career average.

I talked about Tavares’ load management not his production. Leafs forwards get less ice time because of depth and management. It’s not like Matthews gets less ice time because he gets more tired than others.

Pp60 may dip slightly with more usage, but let’s not pretend that it decreases exponentially, likely decreases logarithmically. Ice time goes up linearly with ice time though, I doubt any drop in production rate factors in that much.

It’s still far more readonable than PPG or god forbid projecting season totals by slicing PDO swings.

 

[Morbo]

Actually, this exact argument has already been proven false in this thread. I have already proven with high statistical probability that his low averages in the last games of his streaks are NOT due to luck.

The sample sizes are already quite large. He has 7 different game streaks in his career, and every single time he has had more points in the first 10 games or so than after that.

Here is the picture of the sample size calculator results I posted earlier in the thread:

View attachment 210545

That isn't a large sample no matter how many graphs you want to put up.

But thanks for stopping by.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Actually, this exact argument has already been proven false in this thread. I have already proven with high statistical probability that his low averages in the last games of his streaks are NOT due to luck.

The sample sizes are already quite large. He has 7 different game streaks in his career, and every single time he has had more points in the first 10 games or so than after that.

Here is the picture of the sample size calculator results I posted earlier in the thread:

View attachment 210545

I saw all your pictures. Small samples, especially due to them not being based on any precedent for any other players, just not a single coherent analysis that generates a response more than “oh, neat. what a coincidence”. You should publish a paper on this effect though if you can find it to be real with larger samples, but that does imply that this would have to not only be an obsession with Matthews, seems far fetched.

 

[King Mapes]

Actually, no. His point production just doesn't hold up at all when he gets tired.

With a 0,85 ppg in his last 72 games, he'd get 61,2 points in those games. (He had 0,851 ppg in his last 47 games, the games #11-#57 of his longer streak of the season)

His highest point total in his first 10 games of a single game streak is 17 points.

61,2+17 points = 78,2 points

That would put him at #30 in the league. (His production was falling in the end even more, he would've probably ended up closer to his career average of 0,826ppg in reality)

Or he could have a hot streak in those games.

He has less than PPG in his last 72 games yet has 73 in 68 games this year. Something doesn't add up.

He's on pace for about 88-89 points this year. That puts him around 15-16.

You put up way too much time in this I've never seen this before.

 

[biotk]

Even the media has noticed, that Auston Matthews is always HOT when he comes back from an injury - his PPG in games after returning from injuries is way higher than his averages. (2,00 ppg vs 0,97 ppg)

What hasn't been discussed enough is the fact that Matthews is always hot after resting, and his PPG levels after approximately 10 games.

This is an interesting thesis and I applaud you for it. However, I don't buy it. If this was due to a rest issue than during the season Matthews would produce more when playing a game after 2 or 3 or 4 days off compared to playing a game after 1 day off or a back-to-back. Doesn't happen.

Matthews on the second of back-to-backs: 30 points in 36 games (0.833 PPG)

Matthews in games in which he had one day off: 113 points in 120 games (0.942)

Matthews in games in which he had two days off: 41 points in 46 games (0.891)

Matthews in games in which he had three days off: 1 point in 6 games (0.167)

Matthews in games in which he had four days off: 5 points in 6 games (0.833)

Matthews in games in which he had five days off: 3 points in 3 games (1.000)

Matthews in games in which he had more than 5 days off (ie start of season, all star break, coming back from an injury) 19 points in 8 games (2.375). This of course is an outlier, but the subsequent game after each of those 8 breaks he had 7 points in 8 games (0.875).

My personal bias. I think that Matthews is given more freedom from Babs when he returns from time off, and then Babs starts babbing on him and grinds his love out of the game out of him over the subsequent 5 or 6 days.

 

[Menzinger]

Your post is projecting based on small samples and PDO swings. I don’t have time for that cherry picking nonsense. It doesn’t even include what he mostly gets paid for. You included WAR but not even his goal scoring smh

It’s the type of analysis that people who don’t pay attention to hockey stats love to jump on; short sample sizes paired with overinflated conclusions ect

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Or he could have a hot streak in those games.

He has less than PPG in his last 72 games yet has 73 in 68 games this year. Something doesn't add up.

He's on pace for about 88-89 points this year. That puts him around 15-16.

You put up way too much time in this I've never seen this before.

You really, really haven't understood this at all, have you?

He has 73 points in 68 games because he had a rest in between games 11 and 12. (32 days of rest)

His production decreases significantly with fatigue, and that is why he would be nowhere near a point per game in his last 72 games, IF he would have played 82 consecutive games (the full season)

In the calculation I assumed that he would have gotten wayy over a point per game in the first 10 games. (17 points, as he had in the first 10 games of his current game streak)

1st 10 games of the 82-game-season, 1.7ppg: 17 points
The last 72 games: 0.85 ppg: 0.85*72= 61,2points

17+61,2=78,2 points for the full season

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You really, really haven't understood this at all, have you?

He has 73 points in 68 games because he had a rest in between games 11 and 12. (32 days of rest)

His production decreases significantly with fatigue, and that is why he would be nowhere near a point per game in his last 72 games, IF he would have played 82 consecutive games (the full season)

In the calculation I assumed that he would have gotten wayy over a point per game in the first 10 games. (17 points, as he had in the first 10 games of his current game streak)

1st 10 games of the 82-game-season, 1.7ppg: 17 points
The last 72 games: 0.85 ppg: 0.85*72= 61,2points

17+61,2=78,2 points for the full season

But did you take into consideration his historical production on Tuesdays, and weigh that with how many Tuesday games there were?

 

[Muikea Bulju]

But did you take into consideration his historical production on Tuesdays, and weigh that with how many Tuesday games there were?

Yes, it is starting to get quite evident that you have completely lost the argument, and you have zero proof against the very strong claim that Matthews just gets tired.

You are not convincing anyone with your BS

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes, it is starting to get quite evident that you have completely lost the argument, and you have zero proof against the very strong claim that Matthews just gets tired.

You are not convincing anyone with your BS

Well this is quite ironic

 

[Duke Silver]

Hockey is a game of bounces and luck. Matthews doesn't suddenly become a better, more talented player during the time he's injured. Trying to project out his point totals by making dicey assumptions about isolated incidents is poor form.

Here are some stats:

• Matthews' points-per-game over the first 3 seasons on his ELC is 0.97
• 24 players have put up 0.95 ppg or more over that timeframe
• Matthews is dead last in TOI/GP from that group
• And while production isn't perfectly linear as TOI goes up, it affords him more chances to get more points
• Matthews' 5v5 P/60 over his first 3 seasons is 2.59, putting him fifth among all skaters with 1000+ mins played.

Any suggestion that Matthews isn't dominant, or undeserving of a hefty contract, is simply delusional.

Say what you want about the length of his deal, but he is more than worth the AAV for what he brings.

 

[King Mapes]

You really, really haven't understood this at all, have you?

He has 73 points in 68 games because he had a rest in between games 11 and 12. (32 days of rest)

His production decreases significantly with fatigue, and that is why he would be nowhere near a point per game in his last 72 games, IF he would have played 82 consecutive games (the full season)

In the calculation I assumed that he would have gotten wayy over a point per game in the first 10 games. (17 points, as he had in the first 10 games of his current game streak)

1st 10 games of the 82-game-season, 1.7ppg: 17 points
The last 72 games: 0.85 ppg: 0.85*72= 61,2points

17+61,2=78,2 points for the full season

I'm done. This is by far the most ridiculous thin I have ever read here. The lengths people go to discredit Matthews is absolutely incredible.

But for arguements sake, he likely isn't fully healthy which is why he struggles at times so I'd argue a completely 100 percent AM likely gets 90 points like his PPG this season suggests. But you yourself said he had less than PPG over his last 72 games which isn't true. But hey keep dedicating the amount of time on him.

 

[King Mapes]

But did you take into consideration his historical production on Tuesdays, and weigh that with how many Tuesday games there were?

This. I also want to know how he does each day of the week and then claim how the NHL scheduled x amount of games on bad days for Matthews to claim a conspiracy.

 

[IPS]

Hockey is a game of bounces and luck. Matthews doesn't suddenly become a better, more talented player during the time he's injured. Trying to project out his point totals by making dicey assumptions about isolated incidents is poor form.

Here are some stats:

• Matthews' points-per-game over the first 3 seasons on his ELC is 0.97
• 24 players have put up 0.95 ppg or more over that timeframe
• Matthews is dead last in TOI/GP from that group
• And while production isn't perfectly linear as TOI goes up, it affords him more chances to get more points
• Matthews' 5v5 P/60 over his first 3 seasons is 2.59, putting him fifth among all skaters with 1000+ mins played.

Any suggestion that Matthews isn't dominant, or undeserving of a hefty contract, is simply delusional.

Say what you want about the length of his deal, but he is more than worth the AAV for what he brings.

But you just said it yourself, he doesn't receive the ice-time to put up the numbers to justify the cap hit. What's the point of paying a talent like that and not using it?

 

[Duke Silver]

But you just said it yourself, he doesn't receive the ice-time to put up the numbers to justify the cap hit. What's the point of paying a talent like that and not using it?

I didn’t say that.

 

[crump]

I've. been avoiding this thread. I see why.
Matthews will have had 4 days off, so that bodes well right?