This is interesting, but in no way enough to draw conclusions from. Numbers always normalize with a growing sample size. No statistician would treat data like you do here.
If we want Matthews to produce like one of the best players in the league, we need to give him the PP time to match them. So far this season, most of the top players have played 250+ PP minutes. Matthews has 130. It's over a full minute more on the PP per game, which in Matthews' case would be about 7-8 points more, for a 1.28 ppg and a 105 point pace. Which would be top 10, even when not taking anything else into account. And that's while looking at the stats in the middle of his slump.
Check out the other stats I posted today.
It is not about his stats "normalizing" or his ppg-average regressing to some mean, his production just clearly goes down after a few consecutive games.
Matthews isn't getting more powerplay time, because he isn't as good on the powerplay as he is 5v5.
He is 2nd in the league in Even Strength Goals in his career, but 33th in PowerPlayGoals during the same time. He has less than half the ppg:s of Ovechkin in that time, and even Laine has ~80% more.
The reason for that is quite obvious. He takes so few slap shots & one-timers, that is has become a meme that he never takes a slapshot. For the shorthanded team, it is quite easy to prepare for his shot if you know what is coming.
The Leafs powerplay has also been thoroughly scouted by the opposition, a blind cat can see what's coming in their pp-systems. They are 3rd in goals overall, but 14th in powerplaygoals, and 8th in pp% for the whole season. But that doesn't draw the whole picture, as the powerplay was ok in the beginning of the season (because the system wasn't completely obvious to everyone at first), but after Dec 22 they are 14th in pp%, at 19,5%, pretty much even with the Senators.
One of the reasons for the Leafs powerplay being sniffed out by the entire league is the fact that they don't have a shooter who shoots onetimers all the time like Ovechkin / Laine / Stamkos etc. Their system is not diverse / versatile enough, they try to take too many slow-release wristers, and it's wayyy too easy to defend that.
If Matthews would be better at onetimers / slappers, he would get more pp-time, and the Leafs powerplay would be better.
Btw, the problem isn't that Matthews "isn't getting enough PP time", he leads the Leafs in powerplay time since coming back from the injury:
The real problem is that Matthews is not very productive after the fatigue sets in, the Leafs pp stats since Dec 22:
Matthews' PP-points per minute of powerplay is 0,0634 since Dec 22.
With that rate, he is nowhere close to the top of the league. Kucherov has 0,1683 ppp/min and McDavid 0,1148 ppp/min for the whole year.
Matthews' powerplay points per minute of power play is pretty much dead even with Elias Lindholm for the whole season, and it's going down with the rest of his stats as he gets tired.
This is a new low though. Let's just enjoy our elite goal scorer."
