Graph: Matthews PPG as the season goes on & he plays consecutive games

[Chris18820]

Actually, no. His point production just doesn't hold up at all when he gets tired.

With a 0,85 ppg in his last 72 games, he'd get 61,2 points in those games. (He had 0,851 ppg in his last 47 games, the games #11-#57 of his longer streak of the season)

His highest point total in his first 10 games of a single game streak is 17 points.

61,2+17 points = 78,2 points

That would put him at #30 in the league. (His production was falling in the end even more, he would've probably ended up closer to his career average of 0,826ppg in reality)

You should apply this kind of analysis to other comparable players in the league. Try to isolate out streaks and then extrapolate their point totals. With certainty all point totals are going to decrease.

As far as being critical of Matthews offensive zone start %, take a look at other top players in the league, they are all high. Heck Patrick Kane's is 63.9%! Mackinnon's is 62.6%.

Thanks to the Leafs garbage use of the powerplay, Matthews is ranked #125 in the league in average TOI on the PP. Kucherov and Ovi play an additional 68 seconds and 110 seconds more PP time per game respectively. If you adjust for an extra 110 seconds of PP time that Ovi gets (Ovi would still get more total ice time) in 68 games Matthews predicted PP points would increase by 14. That would move him up in rank significantly for points and PPG.
In fact if you adjust for PP TOI, Matthews ranks #1 in goals and possibly #3 in points.

I just dont buy the argument that he tires out. There were stretches of games this past season where he was invisible and looked disinterested. I think there are other factors at play

 

[Nineteen67]

If I had to guess the reason Matthews is not McDavid, Ovie, Crosby, or Marner for that matter, I’d look at his hockey upbringing. My hypothesis is he hasn’t gone through the same grind as the above in his formative years. 82 games in the CHL is tough as was the Russian leagues.
The stat that sticks out to me is his PPG against the top 10 defensive teams is almost half of what it is against the rest of the teams. Marner was very close to the same.
Could be a blip, could be usage, or maybe it’s the norm for everyone. I don’t know.

 

[Mitchy]

The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.

Matthews got paid because he scores a **** ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.

I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but **** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.

This.

I'm pretty sure Matthews' shot attempts, shot rates, and scoring chances have increased considerably as the season has progressed.

I'm fairly sure his on-ice shooting percentage has been extremely low over the last couple of months.

 

[Bomber0104]

You really, really haven't understood this at all, have you?

He has 73 points in 68 games because he had a rest in between games 11 and 12. (32 days of rest)

His production decreases significantly with fatigue, and that is why he would be nowhere near a point per game in his last 72 games, IF he would have played 82 consecutive games (the full season)

In the calculation I assumed that he would have gotten wayy over a point per game in the first 10 games. (17 points, as he had in the first 10 games of his current game streak)

1st 10 games of the 82-game-season, 1.7ppg: 17 points
The last 72 games: 0.85 ppg: 0.85*72= 61,2points

17+61,2=78,2 points for the full season

First of all, well done on all this leg work. The findings are quite interesting. Have you ran similar studies on any comparable players to Matthews?

It's no surprise players tire and fatigue over the course of an 82 games season, but I'd be interested in seeing how much (if any) Matthews deviates from his cohorts.

And based on your study here, I'm curious what your opinion is on Matthews' usage right now?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

This.

I'm pretty sure Matthews' shot attempts, shot rates, and scoring chances have increased considerably as the season has progressed.

I'm fairly sure his on-ice shooting percentage has been extremely low over the last couple of months.

Hmm, let's see:

10 game moving average of expected goals. Doesn't seem like someone who would be getting tired really? I wonder what happened to his production then?

Oh look, standard swings in Sh% in a season. Gee, that's a large spread in Sh%! Is he getting tired, then not tired, then tired then not tired??? Let's check with our gold standard of scoring for this generation:

Is "Work horse" Ovechkin getting really sleepy too? Or, maybe Sh% is just batshit crazy, like Sv%, and anyone who cherry picks small samples should hang their head in shame and find a new hobby.

Whoa Kuch! What gives man? You start the season at 20 Sh%, then you go for a nap. Then come December you wake up, then get tired again end of Jan and basically stop playing for ~12 games, then come back refreshed mid February and start getting tired again. Do some cardio!

 

[Muikea Bulju]

I'd argue a completely 100 percent AM likely gets 90 points like his PPG this season suggests. But you yourself said he had less than PPG over his last 72 games which isn't true. But hey keep dedicating the amount of time on him.

I have never said that Matthews HAD less than 1.00 ppg in hist last 72 games, I have stated multiple times that he WOULD HAVE HAD less than 1.00 ppg in his last 72 games, IF he would have played the full season, aka 82 consecutive games without extra holidays in between (compared to the rest of the league).

 

[thewave]

Are you literally illiterate? Have you gone to school at all?

I have never said that Matthews HAD less than 1.00 ppg in hist last 72 games, I have stated multiple times that he WOULD HAVE HAD less than 1.00 ppg in his last 72 games, IF he would have played the full season, aka 82 consecutive games without extra holidays in between (compared to the rest of the league).

You're right. Unfortunately these are the arguments of spin doctors. You know you've won but they spin what you say to make it appear you say something else and then slide in an insult to make you sound dumb.

It's okay. They best way to deal with it is speak truth to power. Eventually they explode or are so wrong they stop nagging posts.

My name is Thewave, master of TypeKwando

 

[Muikea Bulju]

I've. been avoiding this thread. I see why.
Matthews will have had 4 days off, so that bodes well right?

4 days is not enough. Here are his PPG's in the start of his game streaks by the length of rest before each streak:

This is an interesting thesis and I applaud you for it. However, I don't buy it. If this was due to a rest issue than during the season Matthews would produce more when playing a game after 2 or 3 or 4 days off compared to playing a game after 1 day off or a back-to-back. Doesn't happen.

Matthews on the second of back-to-backs: 30 points in 36 games (0.833 PPG)

Matthews in games in which he had one day off: 113 points in 120 games (0.942)

Matthews in games in which he had two days off: 41 points in 46 games (0.891)

Matthews in games in which he had three days off: 1 point in 6 games (0.167)

Matthews in games in which he had four days off: 5 points in 6 games (0.833)

Matthews in games in which he had five days off: 3 points in 3 games (1.000)

Matthews in games in which he had more than 5 days off (ie start of season, all star break, coming back from an injury) 19 points in 8 games (2.375). This of course is an outlier, but the subsequent game after each of those 8 breaks he had 7 points in 8 games (0.875).

My personal bias. I think that Matthews is given more freedom from Babs when he returns from time off, and then Babs starts babbing on him and grinds his love out of the game out of him over the subsequent 5 or 6 days.

2-5 days off seem to not be enough for Matthews:



2016 he had the World Cup before the season (3 games + warm-up-games).

This is not about random luck, this is a phenomenom that happens time after time.

 

[Stamkos4life]

If I had to guess the reason Matthews is not McDavid, Ovie, Crosby, or Marner for that matter, I’d look at his hockey upbringing. My hypothesis is he hasn’t gone through the same grind as the above in his formative years. 82 games in the CHL is tough as was the Russian leagues.
The stat that sticks out to me is his PPG against the top 10 defensive teams is almost half of what it is against the rest of the teams. Marner was very close to the same.
Could be a blip, could be usage, or maybe it’s the norm for everyone. I don’t know.

Do you have the stats showing his ppg against top 10 defensive teams? I'd be interested to see them

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Do you have the stats showing his ppg against top 10 defensive teams? I'd be interested to see them

Good call. It's important that we get the sample size as small as possible when sifting for data that confirms our beliefs.

 

[Nineteen67]

Do you have the stats showing his ppg against top 10 defensive teams? I'd be interested to see them

Feschuk mentioned it on Leafs Lunch a week or two back. I think it was something like .54 PPG.
I think the point is that strong defensive teams focus on him and try to reduce his scoring chances. The fact he played a lot with Marleau and Kapenen allows the teams to cheat a little because he’s a goal scorer and not setup man.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Hmm, let's see:

View attachment 210775

10 game moving average of expected goals. Doesn't seem like someone who would be getting tired really? I wonder what happened to his production then?


View attachment 210777

Oh look, standard swings in Sh% in a season. Gee, that's a large spread in Sh%! Is he getting tired, then not tired, then tired then not tired??? Let's check with our gold standard of scoring for this generation:

View attachment 210783

Is "Work horse" Ovechkin getting really sleepy too? Or, maybe Sh% is just bat**** crazy, like Sv%, and anyone who cherry picks small samples should hang their head in shame and find a new hobby.

View attachment 210787

Whoa Kuch! What gives man? You start the season at 20 Sh%, then you go for a nap. Then come December you wake up, then get tired again end of Jan and basically stop playing for ~12 games, then come back refreshed mid February and start getting tired again. Do some cardio!

SH% is not an independent variable vs fatigue

It has been demonstrated in study after study that better rest = better accuracy, better SH% etc.

Just 5-7 weeks of sleeping less or more has a dramatic effect on basketball SH%:

The Effects of Sleep Extension on the Athletic Performance of Collegiate Basketball Players

As you can see from your own graphs, Kucherov and Ovechkin do not have their highest sh% in the beginning of the season - and Matthews never comes even close to the sh% he starts the season with after getting tired.

When a player is fresh, he gets to better shooting positions before everyone else, and finishes them off with better accuracy.

Where do you get those graphs? I'd like to put them against his rest in days.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

SH% is not an independent variable vs fatigue

Well there's certainly no correlation for any of the players in the graphs I displayed.

It has been demonstrated in study after study that better rest = better accuracy, better SH% etc.

Just 5-7 weeks of sleeping less or more has a dramatic effect on basketball SH%:

The Effects of Sleep Extension on the Athletic Performance of Collegiate Basketball Players

Basketball? Now I'm convinced this is a parody account. Bravo!

As you can see from your own graphs, Kucherov and Ovechkin do not have their highest sh% in the beginning of the season - and Matthews never comes even close to the sh% he starts the season with after getting tired.

This is how you establish a relationship between the two? My lord...

When a player is fresh, he gets to better shooting positions before everyone else, and finishes them off with better accuracy.

Using your relationship theorem, the xG (i.e., getting into a better places to shoot) proves this wrong. But if your analysis here is based on basketball, you might be on the wrong board.

Where do you get those graphs? I'd like to put them against his rest in days.

I got it from the very popular basketball statistics site: moneypuck.com

 

[King Mapes]

I have never said that Matthews HAD less than 1.00 ppg in hist last 72 games, I have stated multiple times that he WOULD HAVE HAD less than 1.00 ppg in his last 72 games, IF he would have played the full season, aka 82 consecutive games without extra holidays in between (compared to the rest of the league).

So in other words, you have no idea if he would have and you claimed he would have 68 points in his last 72 games but you have absolutely no idea how many he would have had.

Anyways I think this thread has run its course.