Graph: Matthews PPG as the season goes on & he plays consecutive games

[jimmycarter]

Leafs d pooping their pants out there

 

[Menzinger]

I took exactly his best stretch in the calculation. His best 10 games were in the beginning of his current game streak, 17 points.

He never keeps his level of play after the hot start. If you take the first 10 games of his current streak, and add 72 games played at the ppg-level he has played for the last 33 games, he ends up with 33 goals, 43 assists and 76 points.

If I was forced to bet on his whole season totals, I'd bet that he'd get under 80 points.

Which is a fair indication that your analysis here is bunk....

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Which is a fair indication that your analysis here is bunk....

His career average in games #11-#88 in his consecutive game streaks is 0,8156 ppg

His average in his current game streak for games #11-#43 is 0,81818 ppg, which is almost identical to his career average

With that pace, he would get 59 points in the last 72 games of the season.

For the first 10 games, we could assume he could get his 10 game best total (17 points) from this season, the first 10 games from his current streak.

59+17= 76 points.

It might not be pleasant to admit, but that is the total that his stats point to.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

The Regular Season is over, let's see how the stats predicted Matthews' play. (This thread was made on March 8th, and he played 15 more games after that.)

Here is the updated version of the graph showing Auston Matthews' PPG averages for each of his game streaks in his career. (His latest game streak of 57 games ended up with an average of 1.00 ppg before the playoffs)

I also updated some of the other stats I posted in this thread. His PPG averages for the first 5 games vs the rest:

PPG average
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	1,514
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	0,837

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The first 10 games vs the rest:

	PPG average
1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games)	1,200
Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games)	0,826

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Percentage of pointless games:

% of pointless games	%
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	14,29 %
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	44,21 %

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

His stats from last games of the season 2018-2019:

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Last 5 games	5	1	1	2	-5
Last 10 games	10	3	4	7	-3
Last 20 games	20	7	8	15	-10
Last 47 games	47	18	22	40	-20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PPG Averages for those games:

	PPG average
Last 5 games	0,400
Last 10 games	0,700
Last 20 games	0,750
Last 47 games	0,851

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here is also the +/- -graph for his latest game streak of 57 games (cumulative):



Some other stats from the season for Matthews:

In the League stats:
P/GP #21
P/60 #13
P1/60 #8
PP P/60 #15
PP P1/60 #5

Corsica - Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -stat:

Toronto
Matthews #3
War/82: #3
War/60: #2

League
War: #35
War/82: #39
War/60: #22

Evolving Hockey - Goals Above Replacement (GAR) -stat, skaters:

League: N/A
Toronto: #5



Dubas will have a tough time justifying that 11,634M$/season conract. He is not even near top2 in any other category than salary.

Based on these stats I predict that Matthews would have gotten about 76-78 points in the season 2018-19, if he would have played the entire, full season.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

He was #42 in points in the league. #17 in goals.

Playing a full season, he would've been somewhere around #33 in points.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It’s really strange you seem to have made it your life’s work to create an account for the sole purpose of finding arbitrary slices of point production over time to project them into doom and gloom on Matthews’ contract.

 

[thewave]

The Regular Season is over, let's see how the stats predicted Matthews' play. (This thread was made on March 8th, and he played 15 more games after that.)

Here is the updated version of the graph showing Auston Matthews' PPG averages for each of his game streaks in his career. (His latest game streak of 57 games ended up with an average of 1.00 ppg before the playoffs)

View attachment 210419

I also updated some of the other stats I posted in this thread. His PPG averages for the first 5 games vs the rest:

PPG average
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	1,514
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	0,837

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The first 10 games vs the rest:

	PPG average
1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games)	1,200
Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games)	0,826

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Percentage of pointless games:

% of pointless games	%
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	14,29 %
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	44,21 %

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

His stats from last games of the season 2018-2019:

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Last 5 games	5	1	1	2	-5
Last 10 games	10	3	4	7	-3
Last 20 games	20	7	8	15	-10
Last 47 games	47	18	22	40	-20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PPG Averages for those games:

	PPG average
Last 5 games	0,400
Last 10 games	0,700
Last 20 games	0,750
Last 47 games	0,851

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here is also the +/- -graph for his latest game streak of 57 games (cumulative):

View attachment 210423

Some other stats from the season for Matthews:

In the League stats:
P/GP #21
P/60 #13
P1/60 #8
PP P/60 #15
PP P1/60 #5

Corsica - Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -stat:

Toronto
Matthews #3
War/82: #3
War/60: #2

League
War: #35
War/82: #39
War/60: #22

Evolving Hockey - Goals Above Replacement (GAR) -stat, skaters:

League: N/A
Toronto: #5

View attachment 210425

Dubas will have a tough time justifying that 11,634M$/season conract. He is not even near top2 in any other category than salary.

Based on these stats I predict that Matthews would have gotten about 76-78 points in the season 2018-19, if he would have played the entire, full season.

The people here that love Dubas and the "deal" aren't with us here in reality. If you consider the Clarkson contract bad for the 3m overpay or whatever, this ones different but not much better relatively. It's a 3million overpay on a 5 year term.

I know calling someone an idiot is harsh, but Dubas is an idiot for signing that deal.

 

[thewave]

It’s really strange you seem to have made it your life’s work to create an account for the sole purpose of finding arbitrary slices of point production over time to project them into doom and gloom on Matthews’ contract.

Just come to grips and admit it. It's a terrible contract for the team, a terrible horrible contract worthy of every last bit of criticism it gets.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Just come to grips and admit it. It's a terrible contract for the team, a terrible horrible contract worthy of every last bit of criticism it gets.

Sure whatever man. “Not much better than the Clarkson contract”

 

[thewave]

Sure whatever man. “Not much better than the Clarkson contract”

I said relatively. It's just not a good deal and that won't change until he is beating McDavid some years in the scoring race.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I said relatively. It's just not a good deal and that won't change until he is beating McDavid some years in the scoring race.

He out scores McDavid on the regular.

 

[thewave]

He out scores McDavid on the regular.

I am not like you. I don't cherrypick certain stats and just use said stats to explain things away. Goals ... Ok, well Stamkos signed 5 yrs @ 11.5% Cap under similar circumstances. He had just won the Rocket too.

It's too easy to make messes of the arguments for the Matthews contract.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I am not like you. I don't cherrypick certain stats and just use said stats to explain things away. Goals ... Ok, well Stamkos signed 5 yrs @ 11.5% Cap under similar circumstances. He had just won the Rocket too.

It's too easy to make messes of the arguments for the Matthews contract.

The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.

Matthews got paid because he scores a shit ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.

I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but f*** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.

 

[King Mapes]

He was #42 in points in the league. #17 in goals.

Playing a full season, he would've been somewhere around #33 in points.

He's more likely to be around the top 20ish.

 

[King Mapes]

The Regular Season is over, let's see how the stats predicted Matthews' play. (This thread was made on March 8th, and he played 15 more games after that.)

Here is the updated version of the graph showing Auston Matthews' PPG averages for each of his game streaks in his career. (His latest game streak of 57 games ended up with an average of 1.00 ppg before the playoffs)

View attachment 210419

I also updated some of the other stats I posted in this thread. His PPG averages for the first 5 games vs the rest:

PPG average
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	1,514
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	0,837

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The first 10 games vs the rest:

	PPG average
1st 10 games of each game streak (70 games)	1,200
Games #11-#88 of each streak (155 games)	0,826

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Percentage of pointless games:

% of pointless games	%
1st 5 games of each game streak (35games)	14,29 %
Games #6 - #88 of each streak (186 games)	44,21 %

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

His stats from last games of the season 2018-2019:

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Last 5 games	5	1	1	2	-5
Last 10 games	10	3	4	7	-3
Last 20 games	20	7	8	15	-10
Last 47 games	47	18	22	40	-20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

PPG Averages for those games:

	PPG average
Last 5 games	0,400
Last 10 games	0,700
Last 20 games	0,750
Last 47 games	0,851

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Here is also the +/- -graph for his latest game streak of 57 games (cumulative):

View attachment 210423

Some other stats from the season for Matthews:

In the League stats:
P/GP #21
P/60 #13
P1/60 #8
PP P/60 #15
PP P1/60 #5

Corsica - Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -stat:

Toronto
Matthews #3
War/82: #3
War/60: #2

League
War: #35
War/82: #39
War/60: #22

Evolving Hockey - Goals Above Replacement (GAR) -stat, skaters:

League: N/A
Toronto: #5

View attachment 210425

Dubas will have a tough time justifying that 11,634M$/season conract. He is not even near top2 in any other category than salary.

Based on these stats I predict that Matthews would have gotten about 76-78 points in the season 2018-19, if he would have played the entire, full season.

He's an elite goal scorer, top 2-3 in the league since he debuted. That justifies it.

 

[thewave]

The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.

Matthews got paid because he scores a **** ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.

I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but **** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.

He scored at 47 goal pace, actually under that. You know who actually got 47 goals or more? JT Ovi and Drai and guess who got 45... Stamkos. You know the guy that got his 11.5% contract for 5 years after winning THE ROCKET!!!

 

[yubbers]

Remember last game when he got decked and then he turned it on for a shift or two? Such a difference in play. One can only hope that his somewhat lethargic play lately is indicative of him saving energy for the post season. I imagine he’s focused on redeeming himself for his low playoff production last year. We will crush Boston if Matthews gets going.

I've said for months he plays better angry and that the leafs should hire me to slap him in the face before every shift and rip on his mama

 

[Stamkos4life]

I am not like you. I don't cherrypick certain stats and just use said stats to explain things away. Goals ... Ok, well Stamkos signed 5 yrs @ 11.5% Cap under similar circumstances. He had just won the Rocket too.

It's too easy to make messes of the arguments for the Matthews contract.

Well said

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

He scored at 47 goal pace, actually under that. You know who actually got 47 goals or more? JT Ovi and Drai and guess who got 45... Stamkos. You know the guy that got his 11.5% contract for 5 years after winning THE ROCKET!!!

Still not grasping the ice time thing. No worries cherry pick whatever feeds your bias. You’ll forever be stumped on contracts until you understand how all the professionals evaluate performance.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

He's more likely to be around the top 20ish.

Actually, no. His point production just doesn't hold up at all when he gets tired.

With a 0,85 ppg in his last 72 games, he'd get 61,2 points in those games. (He had 0,851 ppg in his last 47 games, the games #11-#57 of his longer streak of the season)

His highest point total in his first 10 games of a single game streak is 17 points.

61,2+17 points = 78,2 points

That would put him at #30 in the league. (His production was falling in the end even more, he would've probably ended up closer to his career average of 0,826ppg in reality)

 

[Muikea Bulju]

It’s really strange you seem to have made it your life’s work to create an account for the sole purpose of finding arbitrary slices of point production over time to project them into doom and gloom on Matthews’ contract.

I've been posting wayy more stuff on other forums, but most of the other stuff is just about finnish players (and that's why I've posted them in a bunch of finnish forums).

We have just been having some ongoing discussions about Matthews, too, so I've been posting the stats here, too.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

The people here that love Dubas and the "deal" aren't with us here in reality. If you consider the Clarkson contract bad for the 3m overpay or whatever, this ones different but not much better relatively. It's a 3million overpay on a 5 year term.

I know calling someone an idiot is harsh, but Dubas is an idiot for signing that deal.

Well, it's overpayment at least in the league-perspective, comparing to other as expensive contracts around the league.

I don't know if Leafs just have to chronically overpay players to stay in Toronto, to endure the constant media attention, the 50-year cup-pressures, the taxes and the weather.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Sure whatever man. “Not much better than the Clarkson contract”

Well, Clarkson was 29 years old when signing that deal, coming from another team to a relatively bad Leafs team. That was UFA money all the way

Matthews was coming out of his ELC, and he sold only one (1) year of UFA status.

McDavid sold 3 UFA-years at 12,5M$ per, and he had an MVP and an Art Ross.

So it's quite easy to claim that Matthews' contract is relatively even more expensive than McDavid's, and that his deal is probably almost as bad overpayment as the Clarkson deal

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He out scores McDavid on the regular.

Didn't you, just 5 posts above writing this, accuse someone of "finding arbitrary slices of point production over time" and projecting them?

Wow.

We're comparing a guy who has topped 100 points three times with a career high of 116 to a guy with a career high of 73 points.
Remember, claiming "Yeah, but Matthews just gets injured all of the time" isn't exactly a positive argument for Matthews...

 

[Muikea Bulju]

The premise of this thread is a clinic in cherry picking PDO swings. With your reputation on here I’m not surprised you grabbed it.

Matthews got paid because he scores a **** ton. More than Stamkos too, btw. If you want to penalise a player for ice time distribution and amount of time his team spends on the PP you might as well bring out +/-.

I just want to look at production while he’s on the ice but **** me right? That’s cherry picking. We should also include his stats while he’s not on the ice.

As you can see, my latest post also has his P/60 stats etc, and NOT ONE of them justifies him being top2 in salary.

His ice-time is "low", because he clearly gets tired. He just doesn't have the endurance. Take any stretch of games after he has played at least 10 games in a row, and you'll see that he's not anywhere near top2 in the league in anything. And his ice-time isn't really that low, eg Stamkos and Bergeron were lower.

You could also claim that he's getting off easy, Tavares and Marner take the tougher opposition, and start less in the offensive zone.