Rumor: Golden Knights reportedly refused to deal Cody Glass in order to obtain Erik Karlsson from Senators

[Vegan Knight]

It might be a coincidence, but Theodore is still not signed. One would think he'd be part of the deal going back, and Ottawa would want him signed fairly cheap.

It's so funny I posted this on the trade board thread about the topic.

I think Theodore is an RFA who didn't have such a great year that you would be afraid of what he wants. I think we might be holding back on those negotiations so Ottawa would be able to negotiate the contract they want, not the contract we gave him.

 

[Aurinko]

That's a good question.
But there's another potential question: how could we have passed on Karlsson?

You're danged if you do, danged if you don't. If Glass, Suzuki, Brannstrom and Hague live up to their potential, maybe draft real well with those potential picks Ottawa wants, that seems like potentially a really good team with the core that's in place. Just like the team wasn't built to go to the finals in their 1st year, they're not built to just trade a king's ransom for an elite player.

But Erik Karlsson is magic, and the big trend in the NHL right now is winning the cup with elite players.

I´m thinking the exact opposite. It has always been a trend to get as many stars and elite players as possible, VGK are actually breaking the trend.

I would rather win the cup with a real team, than just buy the win by getting superstars with huge discounts (like Selänne to Ducks for 1M$...)

 

[CupInSIX]

 

[Vegan Knight]

I´m thinking the exact opposite. It has always been a trend to get as many stars and elite players as possible, VGK are actually breaking the trend.

I would rather win the cup with a real team, than just buy the win by getting superstars with huge discounts (like Selänne to Ducks for 1M$...)

I don't think trading for a good player (or picking one up in free agency) is buying a win. It's a legitimate way of doing it.

Besides, we have already assembled a good young team in a creative way (castoffs others didn't want and good old fashioned drafting)

The Ducks Championship banner counts just the same. As does the excitement of those wins and the Cup and all those goals. As does the pride from having such a great and classy player (Selanne) play for and represent your club.

 

[LadyStanley]

Pressure is definitely building under Ottawa to resolve EK status BEFORE training camp starts. Retaining his services will just mean a **** load of media attention and questions on that subject at every NHL stop. In addition, there's a lot of dysfunction with the team regarding (alleged) cyber bullying of EK's wife after death of child (stillborn? I don't know that I ever heard any specifics, but child did not survive more than a day after birth if it were a live birth).

And the value of EK to the acquiring team decreases daily.

Realistically, any such trade needs to be consummated by the first week of September (to allow for immigration, etc.) so new guys will be in place by the start of training camp (9/13).

Yes, the VGK do not have a deep pool of prospects, BUT they still have a bunch of future assets (draft picks) beyond their nominal set of 7/year.
(Unlike, say the Sharks, VGK signed one undrafted prospect in the spring: Whitecloud. Also signed Quinney, and two to AHL deals. Sharks signed 3 NHL and 5 AHL prospects. Definitely an area the team could press more on.)

That said, having a known quality in EK and adding to VGK should/will improve the blue line. Even if you had to include Schmidt going the other direction.

All depends on what Ottawa wants in return. My guess is that it'll end up being ~ four pieces: 1st round pick, top prospect, NHL ready/vet D man, and something else.

 

[willy702]

EK seems more interested in testing the market after this season. So really can't give that much up for him. And I don't think his value changes much for quite some time, everyone really is trading to have him on a playoff run and the potential for an extension. By making the deal later the Sens expand the teams that can do a deal since his cost to the cap will be much lower if done at the deadline.

 

[Aurinko]

EK seems more interested in testing the market after this season. So really can't give that much up for him. And I don't think his value changes much for quite some time, everyone really is trading to have him on a playoff run and the potential for an extension. By making the deal later the Sens expand the teams that can do a deal since his cost to the cap will be much lower if done at the deadline.

I agree.

I think it's just important to let him know that the Knights are interested. This location, team and the contract should get him interested. What else could he ask for? Plus... I want to see him play before any trade, I'm not very keen on trading recently injured players.

 

[Boris Zubov]

EK seems more interested in testing the market after this season. So really can't give that much up for him. And I don't think his value changes much for quite some time, everyone really is trading to have him on a playoff run and the potential for an extension. By making the deal later the Sens expand the teams that can do a deal since his cost to the cap will be much lower if done at the deadline.

Anyone negotiating with Ottawa would be idiotic not to get permission to discuss an extension with EK. Ottawa would get a much healthier return if a potential trade partner can strike a a long term deal with him.

EK as a rental has very limited value which is also decreasing by the day.

 

[LadyStanley]

Boris -- value really only starts to go down as of season start, when the point count.

But the more time he has to get in with his new mates, the faster he'll make an impact.

 

[willy702]

Anyone negotiating with Ottawa would be idiotic not to get permission to discuss an extension with EK. Ottawa would get a much healthier return if a potential trade partner can strike a a long term deal with him.

EK as a rental has very limited value which is also decreasing by the day.

Of course every partner is asking his agent about an extension but I think he won't take one now. The pool of bidders is limited to those who have assets the Sens want and the cap room to handle him. Wait until free agency and the bidding pool widens, not to mention a team that wants him now but doesn't have up assets to get him in theory should be willing to pay even more for him in his next contract.

 

[Vegan Knight]

EK seems more interested in testing the market after this season. So really can't give that much up for him. And I don't think his value changes much for quite some time, everyone really is trading to have him on a playoff run and the potential for an extension. By making the deal later the Sens expand the teams that can do a deal since his cost to the cap will be much lower if done at the deadline.

A pure half season rental has a pretty low ceiling of value compared to other trades. Even for an EK type player.

They were saying they wanted five pieces but for a rental they are getting three. A 1st, an A prospect (but not necessarily the A prospect they want) and another piece less than those two. Or two 1sts and another lesser piece. GM's aren't paying the prices for rentals that they used to.

And for us, we can afford to give EK 12x7 max easily, 12.5 with a little effort. With no income tax here and relatively low cost of living. No one will be able and willing to offer bigger money than us. The city would probably rub off well as a place to live.

The only thing I could see him leaving us for, if we traded for him, would be a situation like Tampa Bay for less money because he wants to play with a super team there with friends.

 

[LadyStanley]

With no income tax here

While there is no state income tax, there still is federal income tax. And thanks to "jock taxes", every time a player has a game in a state that does, it's collected. So there are three California teams as division rivals for one. (Player taxes are confusing)

 

[Vegan Knight]

While there is no state income tax, there still is federal income tax. And thanks to "jock taxes", every time a player has a game in a state that does, it's collected. So there are three California teams as division rivals for one. (Player taxes are confusing)

Oh yeah, I just meant no other team would have an advantage over us in that capacity, either. Tampa or Florida or Nashville or Dallas also have to play games in higher tax areas. I just meant nobody could beat us in that regard.

I think even if we didn't have an agreement in place with EK, I think the only place he would leave us for is possibly Tampa if he's willing to take less to play there (and he has not seemed keen on the idea) so I think we would have an enormously high chance of re-signing him here if we do trade for him without a deal already in place.

 

[willy702]

A pure half season rental has a pretty low ceiling of value compared to other trades. Even for an EK type player.

They were saying they wanted five pieces but for a rental they are getting three. A 1st, an A prospect (but not necessarily the A prospect they want) and another piece less than those two. Or two 1sts and another lesser piece. GM's aren't paying the prices for rentals that they used to.

And for us, we can afford to give EK 12x7 max easily, 12.5 with a little effort. With no income tax here and relatively low cost of living. No one will be able and willing to offer bigger money than us. The city would probably rub off well as a place to live.

The only thing I could see him leaving us for, if we traded for him, would be a situation like Tampa Bay for less money because he wants to play with a super team there with friends.

This is all true, but some GMs get crazy at the deadline. In any case if a team was willing to do a deal now without assurances of an extension, would they really give up much more today than they will in February? Maybe you give an extra mid-round pick or a middling prospect, but you don't give them 5 pieces today and 3 pieces in Feb. And making a trade today adds the complication of fitting in $7m more on payrolls that are already as bulked up as they will be. This is why deals for anything but minimal contracts don't get done at this time of year. People were thinking Sakic was blowing it not trading Duchene before the season started because he would be a locker room issue, but he knew he really had to hold onto him for awhile so the pro-rated salary would get smaller and teams would get some cap space from guys going onto IR. I'm certain this is what Dorion is thinking, along with the hope and pray strategy that somehow all these guys on their last year in Ottawa put something together that keeps them from forking over a high lottery pick to the Avs and at least trying to pretend for the fans that you care about winning.

 

[Vegan Knight]

This is all true, but some GMs get crazy at the deadline. In any case if a team was willing to do a deal now without assurances of an extension, would they really give up much more today than they will in February? Maybe you give an extra mid-round pick or a middling prospect, but you don't give them 5 pieces today and 3 pieces in Feb. And making a trade today adds the complication of fitting in $7m more on payrolls that are already as bulked up as they will be. This is why deals for anything but minimal contracts don't get done at this time of year. People were thinking Sakic was blowing it not trading Duchene before the season started because he would be a locker room issue, but he knew he really had to hold onto him for awhile so the pro-rated salary would get smaller and teams would get some cap space from guys going onto IR. I'm certain this is what Dorion is thinking, along with the hope and pray strategy that somehow all these guys on their last year in Ottawa put something together that keeps them from forking over a high lottery pick to the Avs and at least trying to pretend for the fans that you care about winning.

Yeah, you're right. But they do run the risk of EK getting injured, even a small injury, and having his value take a hit with every game he plays.

He could also play and look more like the 60 point defenseman than the 75 point one and that wouldn't help his value at all.

There is that risk for them too. And that risk grows the longer they play him.

I think, in my thinking, it also looks worse if they are just trading their big three all off near the deadline or in the second half of the season rather than spreading them out. From a PR perspective for the team at least.

 

[LadyStanley]

People were thinking Sakic was blowing it not trading Duchene before the season started because he would be a locker room issue, but he knew he really had to hold onto him for awhile so the pro-rated salary would get smaller and teams would get some cap space from guys going onto IR.

Erroneous. First, teams get NO cap relief from a player on IR (in one way, all it does is free up a roster spot). Second, if a player misses 10+ games, he can be put on LTIR; this DOES NOT INCREASE A TEAM'S AVAILABLE CAP SPACE, but allows a team to exceed the max cap by the $$ AAV amount of the injured player (to "pay" for a replacement player). Third, unless the injured player is covered by insurance (and most teams only use league group insurance to cover their five biggest contracts), the team is paying the full freight regardless; and insurance doesn't kick in until the guy has missed like 10 games.

So, if the guy out injured on LTIR has an AAV of $5m, a team can go $5m over the cap for replacement player. But if replacement player is $4m, they only get $4m in benefit.

(Teams can put players on IR or LTIR retroactively. But must maintain minimum 20 players on roster.)

 

[Aurinko]

After reading EK trade speculations for one summer...

I'm pretty sure I get some kind of seizure after the next few speculative EK threads.

 

[LadyStanley]

Golden Knights still ‘missing out’ on Senators’ Erik Karlsson

RJ speculation on EK and other conspiracy theories (Theodore re-signing gumming up the works)

 

[Vegan Knight]

With the Hanifin signing, Vegas should definitely be looking at less than 6x5 for Theodore.

 

[Boris Zubov]

With the Hanifin signing, Vegas should definitely be looking at less than 6x5 for Theodore.

I can't imagine that dollar figure was ever on the table for Theo.

 

[HanSolo]

I can't imagine that dollar figure was ever on the table for Theo.

Agreed. The deal would be done by now if it was.

I think the highest Vegas is gonna be willing to go is a shade under 4 million.

Theo's only bargaining chip is his upside. And granted, I hope Vegas doesn't lose him at any point but the team has the leverage here.

 

[ChanceVegas]

Are we still in the sweepstakes?

Golden Knights can still land Erik Karlsson after Pacioretty trade

 

[willy702]

Are we still in the sweepstakes?

Golden Knights can still land Erik Karlsson after Pacioretty trade

I don't know about a trade but I have a feeling EK and his agents have told the Sens and whoever inquired that he wants to hit the open market and won't sign an extension. So definitely they are in the game if that is the plan. I really can't imagine why you would not want that, what happened to JT has to seem really appealing to a star player unless the preference is to extend with the current team.

 

[Aurinko]

Are we still in the sweepstakes?

Golden Knights can still land Erik Karlsson after Pacioretty trade

I haven't been to Vegas so I guess I'm not a "true" fan by that standard, but since we went all in with Pacioretty, might as well get EK now.

And I really don't like my vision on what EK would bring to the team, but since I absolutely love him and Pacioretty as personalities, it would be awesome. Plus going all in sounds like something a Vegas team could do in their second year in the league xDDD

 

[Boris Zubov]

I don't know about a trade but I have a feeling EK and his agents have told the Sens and whoever inquired that he wants to hit the open market and won't sign an extension. So definitely they are in the game if that is the plan. I really can't imagine why you would not want that, what happened to JT has to seem really appealing to a star player unless the preference is to extend with the current team.

EK's essentially a Free Agent right now. No GM who wants to keep his job is going to give up any significant assets before the season starts to trade for EK without an extension in place. So EK can kill any deal he wants by simply stating, "I'm not interested in negotiating a new contract".