GM Chuck Fletcher v4

[Curufinwe]

Pretty much. He's not moving the needle much in either direction.

Not to dwell on the negatives, but I just don't know how you give a player a $50 million dollar contract and he's not even a PP regular less than a month into the contract. Like you really didn't have the foresight to see that that would be a possibility? And that includes Farabee not getting special teams work and obviously Patrick. That's not a good allocation of resources imo.

What he did have the foresight to see was the possibility of Migraine Man not playing at all this season. Hence paying the premium to get Hayes.

Farabee getting more PP time than Hayes is a coaching move that hasn't been justified by production so far.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Curufinwe]

Silly man.

Ghost makes 4.5 million....there is your money.

Provy Nisky
Sanheim Braun
Hagg Myers
Friedman

Get ready for it...

I'm not sure you've taken into account that Hagg, Myers and especially Lindblom (who is pacing for 54 points) will all be getting raises.

 

[Striiker]

What’s hilarious is that if Hagg got re-signed there’s people on here who would defend it.

 

[Tripod]

Hagg will be getting re-signed. They are not going to just not offer him a contract.

 

[Striiker]

Trades exist.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Well, I think I'm alright with that. They already had the guns for a PP, they really needed center depth at 5v5 and shorthanded. Hayes has been, eh, alright for those two things. Obviously, you want a bit more for the pricetag.

Where he'll really come in handy is if--God forbid--we endure an injury to someone important, particularly Giroux or Couturier. At some point in the next 7 years (he won't last that long), Hayes will be called upon to step up in a big way and in all situations, and we'll see then how he performs.

So essentially a $50 million insurance policy? That's not an easy swallow. Given his current usage, he's a short-term luxury and a potential long term liability (that you are forced to protect in the expansion draft).

And I liked the player prior to signing him too. I don't think I made a stink at all about the signing. But in order for him to give you long term value with no PP contributions, he's going to have to be a hell of a 5v5 play driver, and so far he hasn't been.

You also have to consider that maybe the coach and GM weren't on the same page on this one.

I just can't see this team with a group down the middle of Coots, Frost, Laughton, Raffl competing. He obviously knew of Patricks situation to be so proactive on Hayes. Hayes has helped on the PK big time. As has Braun. Biggest turn around on this team has been the PK. IMO.

Too much $$$ on Hayes by 3/4-1 million. But basically market on a UFA. A 2nd too much for Braun.

The PK was good after Hakstol got fired, so it was almost always a coaching problem and not a personnel problem (and the Toronto PK has struggled this year too...hmmm). Not to mention Hakstol had a habit of using the wrong personnel too. Besides, I don't know how much an individual skater can impact a PK unlike a PP. There's only so much you control you have when the other team has the man advantage and dominates possession. And you're assuming there were no other options than to sign Hayes.

I don't really care to rehash the Braun trade discussion again. It was an overpay.

 

[Jettany]

So essentially a $50 million insurance policy? That's not an easy swallow. Given his current usage, he's a short-term luxury and a potential long term liability (that you are forced to protect in the expansion draft).

And I liked the player prior to signing him too. I don't think I made a stink at all about the signing. But in order for him to give you long term value with no PP contributions, he's going to have to be a hell of a 5v5 play driver, and so far he hasn't been.

You also have to consider that maybe the coach and GM weren't on the same page on this one.



The PK was good after Hakstol got fired, so it was almost always a coaching problem and not a personnel problem (and the Toronto PK has struggled this year too...hmmm). Not to mention Hakstol had a habit of using the wrong personnel too. Besides, I don't know how much an individual skater can impact a PK unlike a PP. There's only so much you control you have when the other team has the man advantage and dominates possession. And you're assuming there were no other options than to sign Hayes.

I don't really care to rehash the Braun trade discussion again. It was an overpay.

 

[Striiker]

What changed the PP was stopping that nonsense passive shell tactic. It wasn't Braun.

 

[Rich Nixon]

So essentially a $50 million insurance policy? That's not an easy swallow. Given his current usage, he's a short-term luxury and a potential long term liability (that you are forced to protect in the expansion draft).

And I liked the player prior to signing him too. I don't think I made a stink at all about the signing. But in order for him to give you long term value with no PP contributions, he's going to have to be a hell of a 5v5 play driver, and so far he hasn't been.

You also have to consider that maybe the coach and GM weren't on the same page on this one.

I think "insurance policy" sells it short. You basically need three strong centers to compete and survive in the NHL today, and the Flyers went out and got the most realistic option for their needs. It just cost a ton of money for what it is, and it might be an unsightly deal in a few years. I was just saying the PP part of that does not bother me.

 

[Jettany]

I agreed the Braun trade was an overpay(did you see that?) Still thinking the Hayes signing was important knowing Patrick's situation. Its starting to seem NOT to be an insurance policy but a clear need considering that Patrick has no time table. Also, I look at G, Jake, JVR getting older. To continue to wait, might not be the wisest idea with these players hitting 30+.

Just couldn't see this team contending with Coots, Frost, Laughton and Raffl down the middle and hoping on Patrick over the next couple of years. I guess Vorobyev or Rubstsov? At this point that seems like a stretch.

 

[Jettany]

What changed the PP was stopping that nonsense passive shell tactic. It wasn't Braun.

Say what you want but Hayes and Braun have helped.

 

[Striiker]

As predicted, adding Braun has done damage by how he effects the lineup. But that’s the fault of the coaches/GM.

Not to mention the fact that hes bad at puck moving and is a black hole offensively.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I have a hard time complaining about Braun, when he's been about what you'd hope for: Unspectacular depth on a top-10 defensive team in the league. They're 6th in GAA, 5th in shots against, 5th in shot differential and 3rd in PK%, and that's not all Provorov/Niskanen's work.

The team defense overall has been fantastic, even though goaltending and goal scoring were slow to get going. Braun's not incredible, but he has more-than done his part there.

 

[Striiker]

He'd be more acceptable if he was on the 3rd pair where he belongs, instead of stealing a top 4 spot from a superior defensemen.

 

[Rich Nixon]

He'd be more acceptable if he was on the 3rd pair where he belongs, instead of stealing a top 4 spot from a superior defensemen.

But did he do that? Even despite Ghost's recent icetime, he still averages a minute more per game on the season than Braun. He's played 19 or more minutes twice as many times as Braun has (12 to 6). That isn't just a PP thing either: leading up to the healthy scratches this month Ghost had more ES TOI than Braun and was regularly third or fourth on the team in that category.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Besides, I don't know how much an individual skater can impact a PK unlike a PP. There's only so much you control you have when the other team has the man advantage and dominates possession.

There was a phenomenal Twitter thread a few years back between (iirc) Ryan Stimson and Matt Cain on the difficulty of measuring two what degree On Ice Defense at ES and on the PK is impacted by the worst defender on the ice vs the best. The gist of it was that especially on the PK, the worst defender you have is in the driver's seat numerically.

Interestingly, it's the same thing PFF has found for OL play. Stars are great, but not sending out any turnstiles is the biggest thing you can do.

 

[Striiker]

But did he do that? Even despite Ghost's recent icetime he still averages a minute more per game on the season than Braun. He's played 19 or more minutes twice as many times as Braun has (12 to 6). That isn't just a PP thing either: leading up to the healthy scratches this month Ghost had more ES icetime than Braun and was regularly third or fourth on the team in that category.

Over the past 10 games Braun is averaging more even strength time per game than Ghost. Not to mention over the whole of the season he's played almost 40 more EV minutes total. Sure, sometimes Ghost gets some more icetime when the team is trailing and needs a goal, but it gets more than balanced out in Braun's favor.

He's clearly been considered the #4 based on how he's being used. Has he been healthy scratched? Has he been stuck on the 3rd pair for the entire year? Nope. Ghost has never had a chance to play with anyone other than Braun, Hagg, or Myers. Meanwhile Braun has played most of his time with Sanheim and was even tried with Provorov. He's also played much more with Couturier, his most common forward linemate is our leading scorer, and has played just as much with Giroux as Ghost... whos most common forward linemate is still Hayes... (TK is 5th, Couturier is 6th).

In the end, if Braun isn't added Ghost likely is getting far more favorable usage. The fact that their usage is even close is insane, let alone Braun getting more favorable usage in multiple places and he isn't the one in the doghouse for no reason. That's not Braun's fault, which is why the coaches/GM are to blame for the misuse.

 

[deadhead]

Things could have been much worse, just look around the league.

Fletcher didn't trade a 1st rd pick, didn't trade a top prospect, didn't rush to trade a core veteran just to shake things up.
#41 was the biggest asset (Gudas was a 29 year old D-man on a one year deal, Simmonds on his last year/Hartman).
Hayes was the only big FA deal, Niskanen 2yr, Braun 1 yr, Pitlick 1 yr.

And in the draft he resisted the "sexy" move of drafting Caufield to get better value with York and Brink.

 

[deadhead]

Braun > Ghost for this team at this time.
That's because Braun is a good fit with Sanheim and gives us a solid 2nd pair.
Chemistry is more important than talent (though you need both).
I mean Toronto has a lot of talent, on paper.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The team is 4th in the East & was just first in the entire NHL for the second month of the season. Despite a brutal schedule. Despite having Patrick out the whole season thus far. Plus Laughton out a month.

Think anything close to that happens if they don’t sign Hayes?

 

[FLYguy3911]

I think "insurance policy" sells it short. You basically need three strong centers to compete and survive in the NHL today, and the Flyers went out and got the most realistic option for their needs. It just cost a ton of money for what it is, and it might be an unsightly deal in a few years. I was just saying the PP part of that does not bother me.

I think we (we in general, not you specifically) had this conversation before this season and it got washed away after Hayes' first 1st period of the preseason against AHLers. It's the old cliche that you need to be strong down the middle and I'd rather be strong down the middle than not, but if you can add an equal (or better) talent that happens to be a winger, on a better contract, is your team suddenly going to fall apart? I don't think so. I'm thinking about a guy like Pavelski who is a winger but can play center in a pinch and only took a 3 year commitment. Or if this is a fantasy, going all in on Panarin! A good player is a good player. Hockey is a free flowing sport. The center doesn't always play down low in the DZ. It's the first forward back that assumes that responsibility. And Frost was never long for the AHL.

The PP thing bothers me because it's was either a (or a combination of) misevaluation of talent, grossly overvaluing the impact of any center, not knowing your talent pool, or the GM and coach not being on the same page. Kinda of like when Ivan Provorov gets $40 million off of his ELC after a down year- any fantasy of him being removed from the PP goes away. And it did.

It's fine now because things or going well, but you're kind of setting the player up to fail. I'm not going to lose sleep over the feelings of a guy making $50 mill, but it's not really fair to him. He's never going to live up to that contract. And again, Patrick isn't even in the lineup. If he was healthy, you have a built in excuse, but he's not. Him not being a part of the PP is even more disappointing. Would love to see the group of guys making 7+ AAV who don't skate on their team's PP btw, let alone guys in the first year of their contract.

I agreed the Braun trade was an overpay(did you see that?) Still thinking the Hayes signing was important knowing Patrick's situation. Its starting to seem NOT to be an insurance policy but a clear need considering that Patrick has no time table. Also, I look at G, Jake, JVR getting older. To continue to wait, might not be the wisest idea with these players hitting 30+.

Just couldn't see this team contending with Coots, Frost, Laughton and Raffl down the middle and hoping on Patrick over the next couple of years. I guess Vorobyev or Rubstsov? At this point that seems like a stretch.

You said Braun was overpaid by a 2nd round pick. That's not insignificant. It never was. I'd rather have Nick Robertson in the pool right now. It also happened before the salary cap was announced and San Jose was not in a position of strength. Braun has been fine so far and has exceeded my low expectations, but the funny part is, he was specifically brought in to prevent goals yet he has the highest GA/60 relative to teammates and the worst goal differential. Not all of his fault obviously, just something I find funny and why I think it's a poor mindset to have when trying to construct a team in a sport as fluky as hockey.

I know the Patrick situation is often stated but two days after the season at his end of year press conference, Fletcher said adding another center was a priority. Maybe as the offseason progressed they only became more convinced they needed to add a center, but healthy Patrick or unhealthy Patrick, I think they were going to add a center no matter what.

No I didn't expect them to wait around for the prospects to develop, but again, trading for Hayes' rights and giving him $50 million wasn't the only option.

 

[deadhead]

You said Braun was overpaid by a 2nd round pick. That's not insignificant. It never was. I'd rather have Nick Robertson in the pool right now. It also happened before the salary cap was announced and San Jose was not in a position of strength. Braun has been fine so far and has exceeded my low expectations, but the funny part is, he was specifically brought in to prevent goals yet he has the highest GA/60 relative to teammates and the worst goal differential. Not all of his fault obviously, just something I find funny and why I think it's a poor mindset to have when trying to construct a team in a sport as fluky as hockey.

Basically puck luck.
xGA/60
Braun 1.74
Provorov 2.04
Niskanan 2.23
Sanheim 2.25
Myers 2.33
Hagg 2.45
Ghost 2.58

 

[Rich Nixon]

I think we (we in general, not you specifically) had this conversation before this season and it got washed away after Hayes' first 1st period of the preseason against AHLers. It's the old cliche that you need to be strong down the middle and I'd rather be strong down the middle than not, but if you can add an equal (or better) talent that happens to be a winger, on a better contract, is your team suddenly going to fall apart? I don't think so. I'm thinking about a guy like Pavelski who is a winger but can play center in a pinch and only took a 3 year commitment. Or if this is a fantasy, going all in on Panarin! A good player is a good player. Hockey is a free flowing sport. The center doesn't always play down low in the DZ. It's the first forward back that assumes that responsibility. And Frost was never long for the AHL.

The PP thing bothers me because it's was either a (or a combination of) misevaluation of talent, grossly overvaluing the impact of any center, not knowing your talent pool, or the GM and coach not being on the same page. Kinda of like when Ivan Provorov gets $40 million off of his ELC after a down year- any fantasy of him being removed from the PP goes away. And it did.

It's fine now because things or going well, but you're kind of setting the player up to fail. I'm not going to lose sleep over the feelings of a guy making $50 mill, but it's not really fair to him. He's never going to live up to that contract. And again, Patrick isn't even in the lineup. If he was healthy, you have a built in excuse, but he's not. Him not being a part of the PP is even more disappointing. Would love to see the group of guys making 7+ AAV who don't skate on their team's PP btw, let alone guys in the first year of their contract.

I think you're underestimating what a solid two-way player Hayes is, while also somewhat missing the forest for the trees re: depth. The Flyers aren't nearly as deep without him, and your "Eh it doesn't matter what position it is" is a little off base. Sure, you can have a deep lineup with a whatever center somewhere in there, but it will have an impact--and I don't think you can assemble as good of an all-situations team as you have if you swap Panarin for Hayes, keep two rookies in the top 9, and cut another $3 million somewhere...even if you've got a healthy Patrick. If your argument is that good center depth isn't necessary if you've got very good and responsible wings down the lineup, maybe you're right...but go find me two more available, affordable wingers who can compensate defensively for a questionable center. There's not a lot of those.

The contracts and reputation/expectations really don't come into play when it's time to use the players, though. The team thought it needed an additional center (and that's a thought I agreed with) so it went out and got one without creating any other holes. The coach deploys players as he sees fit: Vigneault and Therrien tried a PP with Hayes, didn't love it, and now he's not on it, though he's first over the boards for PK. Perhaps later in the season when the PP needs another shakeup you'll see Hayes on one of those units.

Likewise, I don't think Provorov is getting PP time because of his contract, either. If that were the case he'd be first unit from the start (he was 50/50 with Ghost). I think he's getting that time because the coaching staff sees him as effective there. They've correctly identified him as the team's best defenseman and they use him the most--including on the PP. Even if there's other players who have the reputation of more offensively-minded defenders, Provorov has scored at an impressive rate there and is remaining in that position because he's producing.

As for setting up for failure...you can care about that if you want to. The contract Kevin Hayes got is the contract it took to get Kevin Hayes. It likely isn't one the Flyers plan on seeing to completion, and there's a good chance it looks ugly at worst or mediocre at best within a few years. They wanted to upgrade their center depth now so they did it, and they'll deal with the consequences later, because that's how some NHL teams operate. I'd have probably preferred exploring other options, especially knowing what we know now about how Ghost would be used, I'd have preferred to spend the money elsewhere and try to swap Ghost for Kadri.

 

[Striiker]

Provorov is absolutely getting PP time in part because of his contract.

Before this year he was terrible on the PP, in both production and just the eye test. If he was another player, with a different reputation and contract, he's not on either PP.

But since he is who he is, he gets gifted PP time and lucks into some points thanks to TK and Lindblom lighting it up to start the year. Then, that unit cools off and he isn't looking good, but the sabotaged G unit can't score so the coaches mix it up, scapegoat Ghost, and gift Provorov top PP time at the exact same time that they fix the indisputable real problem on the unit, Giroux's placement on the ice. So he then benefits from that adjustment and racks up some more points thanks to those guys being able to do their thing on the PP again.

He does have a few nice PP goals, so he deserves credit for those shots, but other than that he's still the same PP player he always was and he's taking time from other superior PP players who merely haven't had nearly the same opportunities as he's had this year.

He's not getting this usage because he played well on the PP, he's playing well on the PP because he's gotten this usage... and he doesn't get that usage without that reputation and contract.

 

[deadhead]

JVR and Voracek will be gone when Hayes is a $7M RW (and the rise in the cap makes it the equivalent of $5-6M). So the last 3-4 years really aren't a problem unless Hayes falls off the cliff at 30 (his 4th year).

AV has his centers more involved defensively than most teams, in his scheme they're part of a 3 man zone with the two D-men, with the forwards playing up against the point men. Couts and Hayes are perfectly suited to this role, as would be Patrick, Frost is more of an issue. One reason Raffl probably is at 4C is his defensive instincts, obviously not his play making skills.