GM Chuck Fletcher v4

[Rebels57]

I think you're underestimating what a solid two-way player Hayes is, while also somewhat missing the forest for the trees re: depth. The Flyers aren't nearly as deep without him, and your "Eh it doesn't matter what position it is" is a little off base. Sure, you can have a deep lineup with a whatever center somewhere in there, but it will have an impact--and I don't think you can assemble as good of an all-situations team as you have if you swap Panarin for Hayes, keep two rookies in the top 9, and cut another $3 million somewhere...even if you've got a healthy Patrick. If your argument is that good center depth isn't necessary if you've got very good and responsible wings down the lineup, maybe you're right...but go find me two more available, affordable wingers who can compensate defensively for a questionable center. There's not a lot of those.

The contracts and reputation/expectations really don't come into play when it's time to use the players, though. The team thought it needed an additional center (and that's a thought I agreed with) so it went out and got one without creating any other holes. The coach deploys players as he sees fit: Vigneault and Therrien tried a PP with Hayes, didn't love it, and now he's not on it, though he's first over the boards for PK. Perhaps later in the season when the PP needs another shakeup you'll see Hayes on one of those units.

Likewise, I don't think Provorov is getting PP time because of his contract, either. If that were the case he'd be first unit from the start (he was 50/50 with Ghost). I think he's getting that time because the coaching staff sees him as effective there. They've correctly identified him as the team's best defenseman and they use him the most--including on the PP. Even if there's other players who have the reputation of more offensively-minded defenders, Provorov has scored at an impressive rate there and is remaining in that position because he's producing.

As for setting up for failure...you can care about that if you want to. The contract Kevin Hayes got is the contract it took to get Kevin Hayes. It likely isn't one the Flyers plan on seeing to completion, and there's a good chance it looks ugly at worst or mediocre at best within a few years. They wanted to upgrade their center depth now so they did it, and they'll deal with the consequences later, because that's how some NHL teams operate. I'd have probably preferred exploring other options, especially knowing what we know now about how Ghost would be used, I'd have preferred to spend the money elsewhere and try to swap Ghost for Kadri.

It's our best start in nearly a decade, but some people just can't seem to enjoy it. Oh well.

 

[Striiker]

Do we get to raise a "Best Start in Nearly a Decade" banner?

Maybe some people are more focused on the real objective and anything that can improve the chances of that, instead of being blinded by the short term and small sample sizes.

 

[Rich Nixon]

It's our best start in nearly a decade, but some people just can't seem to enjoy it. Oh well.

Everyone's enjoying it, but I think people just don't look at the bigger picture, and everyone deals in absolutes. You don't have to like everything the GM and coach have done, but at least acknowledge what has worked if you're going to harp on the handful of things that haven't, and also recognize that to fill a gap somewhere you likely create one elsewhere, and that every management job in every field expects you to to create the fewest, smallest gaps possible. The fact that not every lever being pulled exactly as you would pull it is because of difference in opinion and hockey philosophy, not evidence of blithering idiocy.

 

[Striiker]

I'd like to hear how moving this decades highest scoring PP player in the entire league from his position and then removing arguably the best PP defensemen in the league from the unit is just a "difference of opinion and hockey philosophy" instead of evidence of idiocy.

Even Hakstol didn't manage to f*** up these two things.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Assuming Fletcher knew about the Patrick situation prior to the Hayes signing, he deserves some credit for that because it’s been at least passable in the short term

But to act like he doesn’t deserve the flogging he will inevitably deserve in 3 or 4 years when we wish that contract didn’t exist is naive

He’s not a creative GM and someone thinking outside of the box might have been able to solve this problem more appropriately for the long term

 

[Rich Nixon]

I'd like to hear how moving this decades highest scoring PP player in the entire league from his position and then removing arguably the best PP defensemen in the league from the unit is just a "difference of opinion and hockey philosophy" instead of evidence of idiocy.

Even Hakstol didn't manage to **** up these two things.

Giroux was aligned on the right for the first what, 20 games? They were over 20% on the power play in that stretch with goals from both units, hit a couple dry games, and shuffled the units again. He's now on the 'correct' side and they've scored twice on the 14 power plays they've had since. Quick maffs: that's worse. I agree with keeping him in the spot he's in, but it's not like they've now entered the PP scoring windfall, or that the pervious setup was completely ineffectual. It was an effective NHL power play. It could have been better, it might have been worse, but we got what we got, for a time.

They have a staff that makes adjustments now. Lines will change. Alignments will change. Usage will change. Things that you don't like will work. Things that I like won't. Things that work will remain unchanged for a period of time. Then they will stop working and things will change again. That's how it will go. They are a good team, they could be worse, they could be better. It's their goal to be better, they'll keep doing stuff to try to be that.

 

[Striiker]

Giroux was aligned on the right for the first what, 20 games? They were over 20% on the power play in that stretch, hit a couple dry games, and shuffled the units again. He's now on the correct side and they've scored twice on the 14 power plays they've had since. Quick maffs: that's worse. I agree with keeping him in the spot he's in, but it's not like they've now entered the PP scoring windfall, or that the pervious setup was completely ineffectual.

They have a staff that makes adjustments now. Lines will change. Alignments will change. Usage will change. Things that you don't like will work. Things that I like won't. Things that work will remain unchanged for a period of time. Then they will stop working and things will change again. That's how it will go.

Come on now, you're just being dishonest here. I know that you know that the 2nd unit was why they had a decent PP % before Giroux was moved back to the correct side. TK had 6 PP points in the first 9 games while on that unit. Meanwhile the only time the G unit was scoring when he was on the wrong side was when things were scrambled, like a Hayes goal off a faceoff without being set up, Voracek shooting into a wide open net, or on the rush without being set up.

And yeah, they're not scoring as much right now, but maybe that's partly because they removed our clear best PP defensemen from the unit (arguably the best in the entire league) and JVR is possibly the most snakebit player to ever step on ice? I don't know, just a thought. Also, units have ups and downs, as we've seen every single year. And don't forget they recently had Giroux back on the wrong side for a few games, so that obviously didn't help.

I guess I'll also point out that of Giroux's PP goals, zero were from the setup where he was on the wrong side of the ice. Two were from the correct side, one was on the rush.

Point being, there's things you can tinker with and things you shouldn't. Giroux being on the wrong side of the PP was a horrible idea in theory and was proven to be trash in practice. It's inexcusable. The fact that they've even gone back to it multiple times is absolutely awful. We have a proven winning formula (over nearly an entire decade) and a proven failed formula... there's no excuse to pick wrong. These are the kind of no-brainer decisions we should expect them to get right 100% of the time... the fact that we can't rely on them to get something this basic correct is a terrible sign overall and should cause a lot of doubt in their decision making capabilities.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ahh I guess you have to wait for the team to have a poor month before you can express any concern about the team's long term future. Btw, the Flyers were 3rd in their own division in Points% in November with mediocre to poor metrics. Good for them for taking advantage of the point system. Hopefully they can maintain that, but what a mindset to have. Not surprising though. It's easier to chirp than to construct an actual thought out response I guess.

I think you're underestimating what a solid two-way player Hayes is, while also somewhat missing the forest for the trees re: depth. The Flyers aren't nearly as deep without him, and your "Eh it doesn't matter what position it is" is a little off base. Sure, you can have a deep lineup with a whatever center somewhere in there, but it will have an impact--and I don't think you can assemble as good of an all-situations team as you have if you swap Panarin for Hayes, keep two rookies in the top 9, and cut another $3 million somewhere...even if you've got a healthy Patrick. If your argument is that good center depth isn't necessary if you've got very good and responsible wings down the lineup, maybe you're right...but go find me two more available, affordable wingers who can compensate defensively for a questionable center. There's not a lot of those.

The contracts and reputation/expectations really don't come into play when it's time to use the players, though. The team thought it needed an additional center (and that's a thought I agreed with) so it went out and got one without creating any other holes. The coach deploys players as he sees fit: Vigneault and Therrien tried a PP with Hayes, didn't love it, and now he's not on it, though he's first over the boards for PK. Perhaps later in the season when the PP needs another shakeup you'll see Hayes on one of those units.

Am I? If we're being honest he's been a near replacement level player. Average at best. In theory, yes that's what he could be and what we expect him to be, but it's ok to call a spade a spade. He hasn't been particularly good so far (Hell, I don't even value it all that much, but he's not even a good faceoff guy). But this is part of my overall point. Hayes at his best is a guy that is pretty good at everything, but great at nothing. In order to get the most out of him and get some ROI, you have to sprinkle him in a little bit everywhere. You can't just put him in secondary role, no PP time, and expect him to produce and drive play at a high rate which is what it will take to justify that contract.

Regarding the PP usage, I know it'll sound stupid, but I don't care what anyone says, there is a psychological effect to it. For guys like him and Sanheim, it's an ego bruiser not getting PP time. I'm sure they take pride in being on the PK, but they are skill guys at heart. They want to be on the PP. If you have time, please find a list of guys making what Hayes is making and let me know how many are not PP regulars. Short of buyout candidates, I don't think you'll find many (any?). It's poor asset allocation. And that is part of why this is being made in the GM thread and not the roster thread. It's a 7 year commitment. It's more than just about this year. ​

And c'mon. I was joking about Panarin. The guy is maybe a top 10 player in the league. There is no comparison there. Panarin and the sacrifices you would need to make it happen > Kevin Hayes and the mid-level spare parts. Panarin is worth every penny.

I would argue if this organization has anything, it's depth. Finding star level talent is going to be the difficult part. ​

Likewise, I don't think Provorov is getting PP time because of his contract, either. If that were the case he'd be first unit from the start (he was 50/50 with Ghost). I think he's getting that time because the coaching staff sees him as effective there. They've correctly identified him as the team's best defenseman and they use him the most--including on the PP. Even if there's other players who have the reputation of more offensively-minded defenders, Provorov has scored at an impressive rate there and is remaining in that position because he's producing.

Prior to this year, Provorov was getting PP time because of some combination of draft pedigree, lack of other options, and coaches like Gordon just continuing the trend of using him as an all-situations player. If you based PP personnel decisions for this year based on the seasons prior, you would really have no real sound argument to put him on the PP. Him signing the big ticket only ensured his usage was going to continue. Good for him for finally taking advantage of opportunity after opportunity. Likewise if Sanheim signs a 6 year deal instead of a bridge, I'm going to take a wild guess that he gets a PP spot over Niskanen.

 

[Curufinwe]

The PP could use a shakeup right now.

O'Connor's Observations: Ivan Provorov's highlight-reel...

The unit’s results suffered a steep drop-off in November as compared to October, and it’s not ridiculous to argue that the power play is the part of the team most in need of fixing as December gets under way.

Likewise if Sanheim signs a 6 year deal instead of a bridge, I'm going to take a wild guess that he gets a PP spot over Niskanen.

If contracts determine PP time, why is Hayes not getting a PP spot ahead of Farabee? He has a 7 year deal.

 

[Striiker]

Ahh I guess you have to wait for the team to have a poor month before you can express any concern about the team's long term future. Btw, the Flyers were 3rd in their own division in Points% in November with mediocre to poor metrics. Good for them for taking advantage of the point system. Hopefully they can maintain that, but what a mindset to have. Not surprising though. It's easier to chirp than to construct an actual thought out response I guess.

People get way too high and too low based on tiny sample sizes.

During winning streaks: they're happy, everything is perfect, and nothing can be touched or improved.
During losing streaks: they're depressed, everything is awful, and we need radical changes to the team.

You have to stay consistent during the inevitable ups and downs of a season and focus on the big picture.

 

[pit]

Besides, I don't know how much an individual skater can impact a PK

I think you meant to say "Besides, I don't know how much an individual skater can positively impact a PK "

 

[FlyerNutter]

People get way too high and too low based on tiny sample sizes.

During winning streaks: they're happy, everything is perfect, and nothing can be touched or improved.
During losing streaks: they're depressed, everything is awful, and we need radical changes to the team.

You have to stay consistent during the inevitable ups and downs of a season and focus on the big picture.

Id have trouble dating you with this consistent even keel attitude.

Everything would always be my fault and make me look like the crazy one.

 

[pit]

Everything would always be my fault and make me look like the crazy one.

Name checks out though.

 

[Striiker]

Id have trouble dating you with this consistent even keel attitude.

Everything would always be my fault and make me look like the crazy one.

Nah, I have emotions just like everyone else and I get as excited for wins as anyone.
I'm saying that evaluation of the teams needs has to be consistent through the ups and downs. You don't want emotion to make decisions for you.

For example, whether the team wins or loses, I complain about the same stuff and want the same changes, as you might have noticed. At the same time, whether the team wins or loses, I value the same players and want the same ones to stay. Contrast this with people who suddenly start coming up with Jake trade proposals as soon as he has one bad game or the team loses. Or people who say that the team has improved so much, but then suddenly wanted to break up the core after a losing streak. You get the idea.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Assuming Fletcher knew about the Patrick situation prior to the Hayes signing, he deserves some credit for that because it’s been at least passable in the short term

But to act like he doesn’t deserve the flogging he will inevitably deserve in 3 or 4 years when we wish that contract didn’t exist is naive

He’s not a creative GM and someone thinking outside of the box might have been able to solve this problem more appropriately for the long term

The alternative was writing off yet another season for a team losing fans, coming off a missed playoffs, & that hasn’t reached the 2nd round in 8 years.

50 point centers who also are dominant PKers aren’t exactly easy to come by.

 

[Magua]

If contracts determine PP time, why is Hayes not getting a PP spot ahead of Farabee? He has a 7 year deal.

Well, Farabee isn’t on the PP anymore. He also didn’t really earn further time over others.

Hayes actually started the year on PP1 in the slot and playing as many or more minutes than Couturier before Vigneault realized how irrational that was. So, it’s not like they didn’t TRY to make it happen. The PP units have also basically just been the 5v5 lines. Hayes certainly got first crack at everything though.

 

[Rich Nixon]

The alternative was writing off yet another season for a team losing fans, coming off a missed playoffs, & that hasn’t reached the 2nd round in 8 years.

50 point centers who also are dominant PKers aren’t exactly easy to come by.

That wasn't the lone alternative, there were other ways to bolster the roster (and center depth) without adding Hayes. That was just the route they went.

But I don't think anyone out there is under the impression that the Hayes contract is amazing and it'll ever look like a steal. It has been very helpful so far this season, and when he is no longer needed they'll get out from under it. Same as they did with Briere, same as every other team does with their July 1st guys at some point. Signing that deal is basically just taking responsibility for the fact that Kevin Hayes will earn $50 million in the NHL over the next seven years, and you'll be responsible for making that happen--even if it eventually involves leaning on him to waive a NMC and trading him for pennies.

 

[Curufinwe]

I jut think that Hayes not being on the PP right now doesn't mean he won't contribute to it over the course of his contract.

Who would have guessed Provorov would be leading the team in PPP after 27 games?

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Ghosts Beer]

That wasn't the lone alternative, there were other ways to bolster the roster (and center depth) without adding Hayes. That was just the route they went.

Were there really alternatives at center? Who? Certainly not in free agency.

How often are prime-career 50+ point centers traded? Not often. And when they are, there’s tons of trade competition around the league. You can’t just assume another team will like your offer better than another team’s. What happens if you bank on trading for a 50 point C & you aren’t able to make a deal? Then you’re screwed. Is it really worth that kind of gamble, or is it better to pay a premium to a good FA in order to have assurances that a big need is filled?

The Flyers weren’t going to be able to top Colorado’s offer for Kadri.

Tyson Barrie was coming off a way better season than Ghost, plus Toronto explicitly wanted a RH D, plus Colorado threw in Kermit, a 25 y/o C coming off back-to-back 40+ point seasons.

Plus, this board would have had a conniption if they traded Ghost or one of the young D in a Kadri trade.

They got Hayes for nothing, while keeping assets they can now use to address other holes if needed.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If contracts determine PP time, why is Hayes not getting a PP spot ahead of Farabee? He has a 7 year deal.

Almost like we had this discussion before the season started.
2019-20 Roster Thread XIV: It's all about the sonnet

Unsurprisingly Provorov was closer to PP1 than he was to being off of it completely.

Niskanen has had his moments but him getting the nod over Sanheim or an extra forward (Hayes, Farabee, potentially Patrick) still seems foolish to me.

 

[Rich Nixon]

All else aside, getting Provorov signed for 6 years at under $7 million and Konecny for 6 years under $6 million will be the best and most essential things Fletcher does for the franchise I think.

 

[Rebels57]

All else aside, getting Provorov signed for 6 years at under $7 million and Konecny for 6 years under $6 million will be the best and most essential things Fletcher does for the franchise I think.

Many complained that those contracts were overpays.

They look great already and will be massive bargains in 2 years when the cap skyrockets.

 

[Magua]

"Many".....

Is this our new forum meme where a small handful of people loudly said something, or a slightly less small handful of people said something with more nuance, and it gets blown up to "many" in the name of self congratulating?

"MANY!"

 

[FLYguy3911]

"Many".....

Is this our new forum meme where a small handful of people loudly said something, or a slightly less small handful of people said something with more nuance, and it gets blown up to "many" in the name of self congratulating?

"MANY!"

Keep it up. You’re gonna get blocked.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Many complained that those contracts were overpays.

They look great already and will be massive bargains in 2 years when the cap skyrockets.

Yeah it wasn't too many if I recall, I just reviewed the Provy thread and only three or four people had anything resembling reservations (and I posted that it was "boom or bust, with a 75% chance of boom"). There was a prolonged conversation about how it wasn't even the best contract on the defense, and then the guy arguing that slotted Niskanen on the third pairing with Morin. Haha.

I don't think anyone was particularly upset at the pricetag at the time, even though I don't think anyone even expected Provorov to regain his form to this extent so soon. Even the most ardent Fletcher detractors gave him props on one or both of those deals.