GM Chuck Fletcher v4

[CanadianFlyer88]

Continue here.

Click to read more...

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Sanheim was our best defenseman last year and he's no longer on the top line, and instead is saddled with the biggest offensive cipher in the league. There are a lot of people who talk about how the game is different now and you need skill at all 5 positions and each line/pairing and yet this board completely overlooks this. It's the equivalent of putting Patrick with Dale Weise.

I give credit to sanheim for excelling in his time, but I think QOC showed provorov got the tough minutes. Great players are going to excel in whatever role—similar to timmonen deferring to pronger when he was traded for. I also don’t think it’s nearly as simplistic comparing Weise on a scoring line vs Braun on a pair with sanheim. A winger of that ilk has plays die on his stick. The virtue of a Braun is that he is 100% aware of his role, he will defer to sanheim on the rush where he is most dangerous. Don’t think lines vs pairs are apples to apples.

The overall defense is going to be improved next year because there's a new coach who will command respect, the PK couldn't really be worse, and getting a full season of Myers and improvement from Ghost/Provorov will be huge. The worst thing that can happen is that Niskanen/Braun get too much credit for this and Fletcher spends NEXT offseason looking for the new Braun to overpay or extend Braun himself.

I choose to hope that fletcher chose these particular defenders because they both filled the roles on the roster and fit the timeline. Braun buys half a year for Myers to become a middle pairing defender (at least), then is gone. Following year, ghost and Myers can play the right and niskanen can occupy the third pair, and then again the flyers cut bait. I won’t presume to know if that’s the plan, but it does have a sense of logic.

Best long-term scenario is that Braun is awful for the first month and Morin steps in and takes control of the job.

Morin is a mystery box. We need to see what we have, but he isn’t going to move the needle one way or another. Also, if Braun ends up being a scratch, you can bet we see hagg too—not ideal.

 

[Tripod]

Went from Gudas and Hagg...and half the time AMAc...to Niskanen, Braun and Myers...and our D got worse?

Time for me to go to bed. Nite all.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Went from Gudas and Hagg...and half the time AMAc...to Niskanen, Braun and Myers...and our D got worse?

Time for me to go to bed. Nite all.

Fletcher had nothing to do with Myers. And Braun and niskanen are declining, hence not upgrades. Riiiiiiight?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

People will tell you Colin Miller is a better defenseman than Braun because “CORSI!”

Never mind Miller wasn’t trusted by his coach & was a healthy scratch for a playoff game, while Braun has drawn 20+ minute brutal matchups for years by a well-respected coach & continued to do so for a playoff team 1 game from the Cup finals.

The usage effect is incredibly underrated. You had Sanheim when extremely sheltered ranking like a top 15 defenseman in all of hockey, then he goes first pair and...uh oh...hm, his possession stats drop significantly. It’s almost like you need to take them with huge grains of salt & they aren’t player rating systems.

 

[Beef Invictus]

People will tell you Colin Miller is a better defenseman than Braun because “CORSI!”

Never mind Miller wasn’t trusted by his coach & was a healthy scratch for a playoff game, while Braun has drawn 20+ minute brutal matchups for years by a well-respected coach & continued to do so for a playoff team 1 game from the Cup finals.

The usage effect is incredibly underrated. You had Sanheim when extremely sheltered ranking like a top 15 defenseman in all of hockey, then he goes first pair and...uh oh...hm, his possession stats drop significantly. It’s almost like you need to take them with huge grains of salt & they aren’t player rating systems.

Who?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Who?

All the people who advocated for Miller while also hating Braun. And there were plenty, & that was the basis.

 

[baudib1]

Went from Gudas and Hagg...and half the time AMAc...to Niskanen, Braun and Myers...and our D got worse?

Time for me to go to bed. Nite all.

Counting Myers as an offseason upgrade is disingenuous at best.

I'd be much happier going into the season with Gudas and Morin and an extra ~$6.5M of cap space than Niskanen and Braun. AMac was better than both Niskanen and Braun last year.

 

[Tripod]

Who?

See above...AMac better than Niskanen and Braun because....spreadsheets.

@Rebels57 lol.

 

[baudib1]

AMac had a lot of games last year where he played really well. It was noted in many GDTs. The reason this hasn't been accepted is ... spreadsheets from previous seasons.

 

[TCTC]

I don't remember a single person in any GDT last season saying MacDonald played really well. People were making fun of him the moment he touched the ice.
But now that he's gone all of a sudden he's so much better than the guys Fletcher brought in. Comical.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

This Macdonald talk is Stockholm syndrome, pure and simple.

 

[tucson83]

Counting Myers as an offseason upgrade is disingenuous at best.

I'd be much happier going into the season with Gudas and Morin and an extra ~$6.5M of cap space than Niskanen and Braun. AMac was better than both Niskanen and Braun last year.

 

[deadhead]

AMac wasn't nearly as bad as many made him out to be, just not good enough to justify that contract.
And he has suitors as in plural, he's a NHL caliber 3rd pair starter.
But he's not as good as Braun or Niskanen.

In the same fashion, people jump on Gudas' metrics and ignore what they saw on the ice, two coaches didn't deem him a top four defenseman, and neither did AV, or he wouldn't have been traded and replaced by another top four RHD.

 

[Rebels57]

See above...AMac better than Niskanen and Braun because....spreadsheets.

@Rebels57 lol.

Not sure if I should laugh or cry.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

I have no idea if Braun is better than AMac and if so by how much. But i don’t find it outlandish at all to suggest it may be the case that Braun will be on an AMac level for this club.

People really get blinded by hatred of certain guys (i 100% hated AMac with a passion, too) and can’t even fathom that the shiny toys could end up the same way.

 

[hatcher]

I have no idea if Braun is better than AMac and if so by how much. But i don’t find it outlandish at all to suggest it may be the case that Braun will be on an AMac level for this club.

People really get blinded by hatred of certain guys (i 100% hated AMac with a passion, too) and can’t even fathom that the shiny toys could end up the same way.

Watch the sharks playoffs and you'll see why fletcher traded for him. Whole other level of kick ass good.

 

[Rich Nixon]

AMac was better than both Niskanen and Braun last year.

Do you think before you type this or is this just a case of doubling-down-to-eternity?

Watch the sharks playoffs and you'll see why fletcher traded for him. Whole other level of kick ass good.

I think “functional” is a far better description than “kick ass good.” He’s a functional player.

I think this fanbase has been watching an absolutely atrocious defense for so long (literally five or more years) that many have lost perspective. The underwhelming #3 or #4 on a contender is not worse than the underwhelming #3 or #4 on a bottom-five defense, and the criticisms coming from other fanbases (not to mention usage based fancy stats) have to be considered in the context of who on that other roster they’re being compared to.

 

[SanBlom]

I'm starting to wonder if we need a poll for the first whipping boy next year. I thought it would lean heavily towards Hayes, but am now starting to wonder between Hayes, Braun, and Nisky (on maybe even Ghost, Patrick, JVR, Vora, Roo?). Disclaimer would be that Hagg doesn't count in this poll...

 

[hatcher]

I'm starting to wonder if we need a poll for the first whipping boy next year. I thought it would lean heavily towards Hayes, but am now starting to wonder between Hayes, Braun, and Nisky (on maybe even Ghost, Patrick, JVR, Vora, Roo?). Disclaimer would be that Hagg doesn't count in this poll...

The whole team is a whipping boy until they start playing the right way and winning.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Just a continuation of my last thought...

The Flyers have been bad for a number of reasons. Coaching/bad system/lack of buy-in being the first and foremost. Bad goaltending is in the mix. And bad defense is right up there with those other three.

The first two boxes were obviously checked. The defense has been really, really horrible though. Part of that has been youth, development, and young guys making mistakes, and another part has been very poor depth that leads to at least one nightmare pairing being out there for 14+ minutes per game, and another where a young player has been anchored with a really shitty partner for 18+ minutes.

Niskanen and Braun are not absolutely amazing players, but they were players playing top-4 roles on very, very good teams. They are not the reason those teams lost in the playoffs when they did, either. You can say "well, those other two teams have Carlson, Orlov (I guess), Karlsson, Vlasic, and Burns" and you're right, they have higher top-end guys.

But if the existing trash that has been used to support the Flyers' burgeoning top-end guys is just as good as the medium-quality support players they've recently acquired, then those trash players would have jobs. No one's signed Andrew MacDonald. Hagg has been pencilled off the roster and he hasn't been traded yet. We'll see where Gudas slots in on the Capitals, but I'm not expecting it to be the top 4. And $6.5 million in raw cap space has never suited up for a game.

Ultimately, the quality of the defense will come down to Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers. One of those guys is brand new, one just showed he can really be a great defenseman, and the other two have some work to do to return to their excellent previous selves. Niskanen and Braun are there to support, bolster, and add actual depth to that defense so the team is never rolling out an absolute pukefest of a pairing. They will do that job better than the guys they are replacing.

Again: The quality of the defense hinges on the guys who are coming back, the foursome with an average age of like 23.5, who have a lot to prove. The new additions will take the strain off and provide some guidance, but it really falls into the "this is your time, no excuses" mindset.

 

[Rebels57]

Just a continuation of my last thought...

The Flyers have been bad for a number of reasons. Coaching/bad system/lack of buy-in being the first and foremost. Bad goaltending is in the mix. And bad defense is right up there with those other three.

The first two boxes were obviously checked. The defense has been really, really horrible though. Part of that has been youth, development, and young guys making mistakes, and another part has been very poor depth that leads to at least on nightmare pairing being out there for 14+ minutes per game.

Niskanen and Braun are not absolutely amazing players, but they were players playing top-4 roles on very, very good teams. They are not the reason those teams lost in the playoffs when they did, either. You can say "well, those other two teams have Carlson, Orlov (I guess), Karlsson, Vlasic, and Burns" and you're right, they have higher top-end guys.

But if the existing trash that has been used to support the Flyers' burgeoning top-end guys is just as good as the medium-quality support players they've recently acquired, then those trash players would have jobs. No one's signed Andrew MacDonald. Hagg has been pencilled off the roster and he hasn't been traded yet. We'll see where Gudas slots in on the Capitals, but I'm not expecting it to be the top 4.

Ultimately, the quality of the defense will come down to Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers. One of those guys is brand new, one just showed he can really be a great defenseman, and the other two have some work to do to return to their excellent previous selves. Niskanen and Braun are there to support, bolster, and add actual depth to that defense so the team is never rolling out and absolute pukefest of a pairing. They will do that job better than the guys they are replacing, or who have left.

 

[hatcher]

Just a continuation of my last thought...

The Flyers have been bad for a number of reasons. Coaching/bad system/lack of buy-in being the first and foremost. Bad goaltending is in the mix. And bad defense is right up there with those other three.

The first two boxes were obviously checked. The defense has been really, really horrible though. Part of that has been youth, development, and young guys making mistakes, and another part has been very poor depth that leads to at least one nightmare pairing being out there for 14+ minutes per game.

Niskanen and Braun are not absolutely amazing players, but they were players playing top-4 roles on very, very good teams. They are not the reason those teams lost in the playoffs when they did, either. You can say "well, those other two teams have Carlson, Orlov (I guess), Karlsson, Vlasic, and Burns" and you're right, they have higher top-end guys.

But if the existing trash that has been used to support the Flyers' burgeoning top-end guys is just as good as the medium-quality support players they've recently acquired, then those trash players would have jobs. No one's signed Andrew MacDonald. Hagg has been pencilled off the roster and he hasn't been traded yet. We'll see where Gudas slots in on the Capitals, but I'm not expecting it to be the top 4.

Ultimately, the quality of the defense will come down to Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers. One of those guys is brand new, one just showed he can really be a great defenseman, and the other two have some work to do to return to their excellent previous selves. Niskanen and Braun are there to support, bolster, and add actual depth to that defense so the team is never rolling out an absolute pukefest of a pairing. They will do that job better than the guys they are replacing.

Again: The quality of the defense hinges on the guys who are coming back, the foursome with an average age of like 23.5, who have a lot to prove. The new additions will take the strain off and provide some guidance, but it really falls into the "this is your time, no excuses" mindset.

Thank you for for a great write up on the truth.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Just a continuation of my last thought...

The Flyers have been bad for a number of reasons. Coaching/bad system/lack of buy-in being the first and foremost. Bad goaltending is in the mix. And bad defense is right up there with those other three.

The first two boxes were obviously checked. The defense has been really, really horrible though. Part of that has been youth, development, and young guys making mistakes, and another part has been very poor depth that leads to at least one nightmare pairing being out there for 14+ minutes per game, and another where a young player has been anchored with a really ****ty partner for 18+ minutes.

Niskanen and Braun are not absolutely amazing players, but they were players playing top-4 roles on very, very good teams. They are not the reason those teams lost in the playoffs when they did, either. You can say "well, those other two teams have Carlson, Orlov (I guess), Karlsson, Vlasic, and Burns" and you're right, they have higher top-end guys.

But if the existing trash that has been used to support the Flyers' burgeoning top-end guys is just as good as the medium-quality support players they've recently acquired, then those trash players would have jobs. No one's signed Andrew MacDonald. Hagg has been pencilled off the roster and he hasn't been traded yet. We'll see where Gudas slots in on the Capitals, but I'm not expecting it to be the top 4. And $6.5 million in raw cap space has never suited up for a game.

Ultimately, the quality of the defense will come down to Provorov, Sanheim, Ghost, and Myers. One of those guys is brand new, one just showed he can really be a great defenseman, and the other two have some work to do to return to their excellent previous selves. Niskanen and Braun are there to support, bolster, and add actual depth to that defense so the team is never rolling out an absolute pukefest of a pairing. They will do that job better than the guys they are replacing.

Again: The quality of the defense hinges on the guys who are coming back, the foursome with an average age of like 23.5, who have a lot to prove. The new additions will take the strain off and provide some guidance, but it really falls into the "this is your time, no excuses" mindset.

You’ve put a lot more thought into this than I do.

Niskanen and Braun > hagg gudas and Macdonald

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't remember a single person in any GDT last season saying MacDonald played really well. People were making fun of him the moment he touched the ice.
But now that he's gone all of a sudden he's so much better than the guys Fletcher brought in. Comical.

I’m going to be blunt. You don’t understand what’s being discussed. Now maybe that’s other people’s fault for not being clear, yours for not understanding it, or most likely a mixture of the two. Maybe other people don’t too, so let me clear up what I mean.

What a player has done and what a player will do are completely separate discussions. This is why I keep trying to bring up the idea of predictive vs descriptive metrics.

Here is what I am saying: If Justin Brian brings a more positive net impact next year than Andrew MacDonald brought last year, that’s a significant win based on Braun’s play the last few years.

Here is what I am not saying: Andrew MacDonald is generally a better player than Justin Braun.

Within careers, there are huge swings from year to year, month to month, etc. AMac played some legitimately very good hockey paired with Gudas for a while last year that factor heavily with the arbitrary seasonal cutoff. And yes, @deadhead brought this up last year. And yes, I agreed with him once I looked into it. They dragged a mildly positive impact from AMac when taken on the whole last year, even though it consisted of huge peaks and valleys.