True, but seeing an arena built in the first place is a big sign that it could happen.
It's not. The Suns are getting a new arena with or without the Coyotes. With the Salt River tribe ready to take the team should Sarver not get what he wants, the city of Phoenix can lean on the Suns to help the Coyotes only so much. There is no reason for Sarver to cut the Coyotes in on the action unless he gets something in return, most likely of which is a reduced or eliminated construction equity cost to him. The present value of this favor would have to exceed the expected value of all the usual revenue streams over the life of the building that he'd lose by welcoming another major tenant*.
the tl;dr is that Phoenix would have to give the Suns one hell of a deal to even open the door for the hockey team.
Given that, there is a much better (but still remote) chance that Sarver shows interest in or is offered the hockey team, or a majority stake, in the interest of streamlining revenue. Most buildings do not have two major tenants that happily coexist unless they are owned and operated by the same entity. Dallas is an exception, and could be the model, but the Coyotes do not have exceptionally wealthy owners, so their ability to pick up construction costs as the Stars did is very limited, if nonexistent.
The NHL, for their part, can ease the debt obligations of the team and make it an attractive purchase to keep it in the valley. Or they could do nothing and turn a profit on the team by allowing it to move. The City of Phoenix can talk about the Coyotes all they want, but it is just talk. They do not have the finances or the political capital with the Suns to make it a slam dunk. Sarver currently has no interest in owning the hockey team and diluting his revenue share. No building is slated to be built in the near future - the future where the Coyotes can definitely exist. A new building is more likely to be five or more years away, not two, requiring even more maneuvering for the transition plan should Glendale kick the Coyotes out.
The Coyotes have to fix or find a solution to all of the above in less than two years.
I guess there exists the possibility the Coyotes do baller business, give Glendale no reason to become arena manager, and negotiate a nice extension. How likely this is in the shadow of relocation and with the likely performance of the team on and off the ice, is up to how much of an optimist you are.
That's very true. But I think it would be much easier if there are two major tenants for the new building, if Phoenix wants it built in the near future.
It's only easier if the Coyotes have construction money to offer. They don't. So they can offer a majority ownership stake as collateral, diluting IA's position, so that the Suns and the Coyotes become one and the same. That really only comes into play if Sarver is interested in what Phoenix will offer in exchange + the team itself.
