Giroux vs Pettersson (This year only)

[swedehollow]

It will be fun to revisit this thread after game 82!

 

[bobholly39]

To start, my ceiling and floor is based on an 82 game season. Giroux has been below a 70 point pace one time in the past 9 seasons (67 points in 78 games is a 70 point pace and that season he was dealing with a sports hernia all year). The one season he was below 70 points was the season after his hip/hernia surgery which takes while to recover from. It's the same surgery that Getzlaf had when he had a 57 point season after 4 consecutive PPG+ seasons and then bounced right back to have 2 more PPG+ seasons right after it. There's also the fact that league wide scoring is up nearly a half a goal a game since then. His switch to wing has also pretty clearly opened up his offensive game and brought life back to him. I guess it's possible that Giroux falls off a cliff and goes from an 85 point player to a 60 point player but I just don't see it. I guess it's also possible that Pettersson hits a sophomore slump and scores under 60 points but my floor/ceiling is more based on realistic expectations not assuming injuries and missed games. Technically every players floor is 0 points but barring an injury I would be shocked to see Giroux in the 60s this season the same way I would be shocked to see Pettersson under 60. I also said Giroux's ceiling is 100 points. He had over 100 points just 2 years ago but oddly enough, I don't see you mentioning that his ceiling should be higher.

That's a whole lot of words, but before his resurgence in the last 2 years, he had 3 straight mostly full seasons where he averaged 66 points scored. He did have 102 points a year ago, but is that an expected result or an outlier? If you discount his 102 point season, his average for the last 4 seasons is 70 points exactly. If you include that season, it's still only 77 points.

I guess what i'm getting at is - i wouldn't put any money on Giroux hitting a high # of points. He is too inconsistent and unsafe to bet on imo. 70 points isn't as unrealistic as you seem to imply.

 

[StoneHands]

That's a whole lot of words, but before his resurgence in the last 2 years, he had 3 straight mostly full seasons where he averaged 66 points scored. He did have 102 points a year ago, but is that an expected result or an outlier? If you discount his 102 point season, his average for the last 4 seasons is 70 points exactly. If you include that season, it's still only 77 points.

I guess what i'm getting at is - i wouldn't put any money on Giroux hitting a high # of points. He is too inconsistent and unsafe to bet on imo. 70 points isn't as unrealistic as you seem to imply.

Here's fewer words for you. Giroux has scored at lower than a 70 point pace one time in the past 9 seasons and it was following an offseason surgery known to have a long recovery time. If you want to remove his 102 point season as an outlier, that's fine but it's only fair to also remove the 58 point season for the same reason. I know you hate the Flyers and you came in with an agenda and that's fine but at least be fair.

We can revisit this at the end of the season. I'd be more than willing to admit I'm wrong if he scores fewer than 70 points. I just don't see it barring an injury. You can disagree all you want but I think a 70-100 point range is fairly reasonable.

 

[Thenameless]

Bucking the trend, and going with Pettersson. He just has to play his game, and hopefully not get injured.

 

[bobholly39]

Here's fewer words for you. Giroux has scored at lower than a 70 point pace one time in the past 9 seasons and it was following an offseason surgery known to have a long recovery time. If you want to remove his 102 point season as an outlier, that's fine but it's only fair to also remove the 58 point season for the same reason. I know you hate the Flyers and you came in with an agenda and that's fine but at least be fair.

We can revisit this at the end of the season. I'd be more than willing to admit I'm wrong if he scores fewer than 70 points. I just don't see it barring an injury. You can disagree all you want but I think a 70-100 point range is fairly reasonable.

I don't particularly like the Flyers that's true, but i'm not here with an agenda lol.

70 point "pace" is sugar-coating it. The thread asks who scores more points, it's not about ppg, just raw points. For actual points, he scored under 70 points twice in the past 4 years, and the 5th year he scored only 73, so close enough. He's getting older, so it's not like he's about to start improving.

 

[Dooble08]

I don't particularly like the Flyers that's true, but i'm not here with an agenda lol.

70 point "pace" is sugar-coating it. The thread asks who scores more points, it's not about ppg, just raw points. For actual points, he scored under 70 points twice in the past 4 years, and the 5th year he scored only 73, so close enough. He's getting older, so it's not like he's about to start improving.

By that logic, Pettersson got injured last year and didn't hit 70 points either. Even if he played the entire season, he wasn't scoring more points than Giroux. The last 2 seasons, since Giroux has been removed from being a center, he's scored 102 points and 85 points. I would expect the Flyers to be better than the Canucks this season, so seeing Giroux hit at least 82 points isn't far off (I'd even be willing to bet he scores 90+). While Pettersson may in fact be a better player in the long run, he currently isn't. That's why more people, including some Canucks fans, are voting Giroux over Pettersson in points this season.

 

[StoneHands]

I don't particularly like the Flyers that's true, but i'm not here with an agenda lol.

70 point "pace" is sugar-coating it. The thread asks who scores more points, it's not about ppg, just raw points. For actual points, he scored under 70 points twice in the past 4 years, and the 5th year he scored only 73, so close enough. He's getting older, so it's not like he's about to start improving.

Saying that you don't particularly like the Flyers is probably the nicest thing you've ever said about them. You didn't come in with an agenda? You had no problem with me saying a guy that scored 66 points last season could reach 90 points this season but you made sure to argue that a guy who has scored 102 and 85 points the last two seasons could score under 70. You didn't bother correcting me to say that Giroux could score over 100 since he just did it 2 years ago. Your agenda was clearly to try to knock Giroux down a peg or two and that's fine but it's clearly an agenda.

When people discuss how many points a player is going to score its almost always assuming a healthy season. If not then I guess I'll have to lower Pettersson's numbers. I'll say Giroux's floor to ceiling is 55 to 105 points and Pettersson's is 60-75. Either way the safer bet is on Giroux.

 

[bobholly39]

Saying that you don't particularly like the Flyers is probably the nicest thing you've ever said about them. You didn't come in with an agenda? You had no problem with me saying a guy that scored 66 points last season could reach 90 points this season but you made sure to argue that a guy who has scored 102 and 85 points the last two seasons could score under 70. You didn't bother correcting me to say that Giroux could score over 100 since he just did it 2 years ago. Your agenda was clearly to try to knock Giroux down a peg or two and that's fine but it's clearly an agenda.

When people discuss how many points a player is going to score its almost always assuming a healthy season. If not then I guess I'll have to lower Pettersson's numbers. I'll say Giroux's floor to ceiling is 55 to 105 points and Pettersson's is 60-75. Either way the safer bet is on Giroux.

Are you confusing me with another poster? You make it sound like i have a huge history of bashing or hating the Flyers. I don't really like them, but i hardly ever talk about them here.

I'm not sure what Pettersson's floor and ceiling should be. I think his ceiling should be higher than 75 points though, as he's super skilled, so he could probably do higher than that in year 2 if things go his way.

I just took exception to you saying Giroux's floor is 70 points when twice in the past 4 years he hit below that. It'd be akin to me, as a Crosby fan, saying "Crosby's floor this season is 95 points". And you responding with "no, 3 times in past 4 years he hit below that, that's not his floor". You're just taking things too personally.

 

[StoneHands]

Are you confusing me with another poster? You make it sound like i have a huge history of bashing or hating the Flyers. I don't really like them, but i hardly ever talk about them here.

I'm not sure what Pettersson's floor and ceiling should be. I think his ceiling should be higher than 75 points though, as he's super skilled, so he could probably do higher than that in year 2 if things go his way.

I just took exception to you saying Giroux's floor is 70 points when twice in the past 4 years he hit below that. It'd be akin to me, as a Crosby fan, saying "Crosby's floor this season is 95 points". And you responding with "no, 3 times in past 4 years he hit below that, that's not his floor". You're just taking things too personally.

Again, when people make point predictions they base it off of a full season. Crosby has played at a 95 point pace just 1 time in the past 5 seasons. It's not nearly the same as Giroux who has paced at 70 points or more in 8 of the past 9 seasons.

Let me ask you then, what are Giroux and Pettersson's floor and ceiling?

 

[bobholly39]

Again, when people make point predictions they base it off of a full season. Crosby has played at a 95 point pace just 1 time in the past 5 seasons. It's not nearly the same as Giroux who has paced at 70 points or more in 8 of the past 9 seasons.

Let me ask you then, what are Giroux and Pettersson's floor and ceiling?

Giroux has missed like 4 games total in the past 7 years. You really need to stop talking about pace lol. Maybe if we were talking about a Malkin or Matthews who play ~60 games, it might make sense to look at pace over a full season. I agree with your logic that it makes sense to look at a full season, but i feel that at 78 and 81 games played, you're practically there, so i was just looking at actual points.

Before the last 2 seasons - for 3 straight years Giroux was less than a 70 point guy, on average. Average of 66 points. Twice he hit below 70, and the third time he hit 73. His "floor" should be the worst he can reasonably be expected to do. And you're saying that the "worst he can be reasonably expected to do" is a number higher than he averaged for 3 straight years. I just don't agree with that. And if you're saying he was injured the one year, he wasn't the other 2 years where he still just averaged ~70 points. His floor should be somewhere below that.

To look at Crosby - i'm not going to say his floor is ~88 points. His floor is probably close to ~80 points in a full year.

For EP - i'm not sure what his floor or ceiling should be. I think his ceiling is definitely higher than 75 points though. His floor, over a mostly full season, probably mid 50s, since sophomore slumps do happen. For Giroux, his floor is definitely below 70 points, somewhere in the 60s.

It's a hard poll for me because i don't yet know enough of EP to say with confidence he'll perform well, or is susceptible to a sophomore slump.
As for Giroux - I dislike how uneven his performances have been over the past 5 years, so he's even harder to predict. I had mostly written him off as a top point producer after that 3 year stretch, so now I want to give him a bit more credit going into next year, but still not ready to write off his 3 seasons prior completely. To me he can do anything from ~60 to ~100 points.

 

[StoneHands]

Giroux has missed like 4 games total in the past 7 years. You really need to stop talking about pace lol. Maybe if we were talking about a Malkin or Matthews who play ~60 games, it might make sense to look at pace over a full season. I agree with your logic that it makes sense to look at a full season, but i feel that at 78 and 81 games played, you're practically there, so i was just looking at actual points.

Before the last 2 seasons - for 3 straight years Giroux was less than a 70 point guy, on average. Average of 66 points. Twice he hit below 70, and the third time he hit 73. His "floor" should be the worst he can reasonably be expected to do. And you're saying that the "worst he can be reasonably expected to do" is a number higher than he averaged for 3 straight years. I just don't agree with that. And if you're saying he was injured the one year, he wasn't the other 2 years where he still just averaged ~70 points. His floor should be somewhere below that.

To look at Crosby - i'm not going to say his floor is ~88 points. His floor is probably close to ~80 points in a full year.

For EP - i'm not sure what his floor or ceiling should be. I think his ceiling is definitely higher than 75 points though. His floor, over a mostly full season, probably mid 50s, since sophomore slumps do happen. For Giroux, his floor is definitely below 70 points, somewhere in the 60s.

It's a hard poll for me because i don't yet know enough of EP to say with confidence he'll perform well, or is susceptible to a sophomore slump.
As for Giroux - I dislike how uneven his performances have been over the past 5 years, so he's even harder to predict. I had mostly written him off as a top point producer after that 3 year stretch, so now I want to give him a bit more credit going into next year, but still not ready to write off his 3 seasons prior completely. To me he can do anything from ~60 to ~100 points.

So you came into a thread to correct a subjective 70 point floor for Giroux because you think it should be in the 60's but you didn't correct my 60 point floor on EP when you think it's in the 50s? Yet you had no agenda?

Also, the claim of Giroux being inconsistent is one of the funnier things I've seen on HF. He's been one of the most consistent scorers of the last decade.

Here are his point scoring finishes going back to 2010-2011.
11th, 3rd, 13th, 3rd, 10th, 19th, 46th, 2nd, 19th

He's finished between 2nd and 19th in scoring every year but once this decade yet you want to write off his 2nd place finish 2 years ago as an outlier but not the 46th place finish 3 years ago. Very reasonable of you.

A huge part of the reason why I said Giroux's floor is 70 points is because scoring has dramatically increased the past 2 seasons and I see no reason to think it's going to instantly revert back to 2015 scoring levels. 70 points last season would have ranked 51st in the NHL which is lower than he's finished this decade but that's unreasonable? Even if scoring is closer to 2018 that would have ranked him 34th which is well below all but one season. If Giroux scores fewer than 70 points this season it's going to be a disaster of a year for the Flyers.

I'm sticking with 70-100 points for Giroux and I think he'll probably finish in the mid 80s.

 

[mattydamon]

Why is it always Leafs fans ripping on EP? It's mind boggling. Maybe it isn't, it's a big fan base.

 

[StoneHands]

Why is it always Leafs fans ripping on EP? It's mind boggling. Maybe it isn't, it's a big fan base.

Who's ripping on EP? This thread is about a fantasy hockey trade. I don't think there was any intent to bash EP who is obviously a great player.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

it think Giroux is good for 85+ easily and it will be tough for Pettersson to get more than that.

 

[mattydamon]

Who's ripping on EP? This thread is about a fantasy hockey trade. I don't think there was any intent to bash EP who is obviously a great player.

Looks like they were removed as they were obviously attempting to get a reaction, thank you mods!

As for the question I think this year it will be Giroux.

 

[Psych0dad]

Petterson is my guess. I can see him cracking 90 healthy.

 

[blinds]

Petterson is my guess. I can see him cracking 90 healthy.

Y'all got some wild expectations for the kid.

 

[Psych0dad]

Y'all got some wild expectations for the kid.

I know, I'm not a canucks fan either. He will be their go to guy, that will show in ice time and use. And his talent is undeniable. In a better team he would not have to be relied on as much, but in Vancouver he will be the #1.

 

[Sasso09]

EP will have 70-80 points this year IMO especially if the higher scoring pace of last year holds up

Still Grioux tho

I can honestly see him going PPG. He's great. I'm just guessing 65ish

 

[koyvoo]

Very early still but so far -
Pettersson 5 pts in 5 games
Giroux 1 pt in 4 games

 

[Love]

Very early still but so far -
Pettersson 5 pts in 5 games
Giroux 1 pt in 4 games

Like you said it’s too early. Giroux will be just fine and the Flyers have had a weird schedule to start the season.

 

[Star Ocean]

Pettersson

 

[Westcoastsniper]

Good start for pettersson

 

[Bankerguy]

18 pts in 12 games.
127 pt pace. Way to go Pettersson, and way to go small sample size!

 

[koyvoo]

Still early, but almost a quarter of the way into the season now-

Pettersson 19GP 8G 15A 23P
Giroux 18GP 5G 8A 13P