Getting the TRUE McEichel - Buffalo's Perfect Storm

[MayDay]

If this dream scenario does happen, there's a movie to be made, for sure.

The movie opens with a heavily disguised Garth Snow, in hiding and operating under an assumed name at an undisclosed location in South America.

As he sits in a mostly empty dive bar and downs his fifth whiskey of the afternoon and orders another, he begins to tell the barman his story…

(Flashback to a younger Snow watching video of Thomas Vanek and reaching for his phone to make a call.)

 

[Djp]

What are the odds that THIS Perfect Storm hits Buffalo:

Islanders lose final 3 games.
Ottawa win final 3 games (including in OT to Penguins on Tuesday)... but today's loss to the putrid Leafs was HUGE.
Detroit get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Pittsburgh get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Islanders miss playoffs despite getting 98 points - which would probably be a record for the highest point total for any non-playoff team.
Despite having only a 1% chance as the highest placed non-playoff team, Islanders win the draft lottery.
Garth Snow goes into hiding.
Buffalo picks McDavid 1st and Eichel 2nd, instantly creating another Crosby/Malkin monster to terrorize the hapless Eastern Conference for the next decade.

The True McEichel

The scenario is:

NYI lose last 2 in regulation (0 pts)
OTT win last 2
Pittsburg gets 3 out 4 possible points (they play Isles on Friday)
Boston gets 4 points out 6 possible points
Detroit gets 2 points out of possible 4 points

schedule:

NYI at PITT, Columbus
PIT NYI, at buffalo
OTT at rangers, at philly
BOS at washington, at florida, at Tampa bay
DET at Montreal, at Carolina

I think PITT getting 4 points is near 80%
I think the Isles get 0 points is around 40%
I think Detroit getting 2 points is around 80%
I think Boston getting 4 points is around 50%
I think OTT to get 4 points is around 40%

Multiply the probabilities together will give you the odds of NYI finishing outside the playoffs. About 5%

multiply that result by the odds of them winning the lottery gives you the odds of getting the #1. I dont recall the odds maybe 1%?

I think the odds are a reasonable that the NYI pick is around 17-18.

 

[Sky Valley]

This is my favorite impossible pipe dream, and I'm not even a Sabres fan. This board would be crashed for a week after the lottery results dropped.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is my favorite impossible pipe dream, and I'm not even a Sabres fan. This board would be crashed for a week after the lottery results dropped.

Oh yes. The main board hate would be amazing to witness.

 

[cybresabre]

Especially when both collide knee to knee on their 3rd game and blow out their knees, ending both careers.

Career ending injuries in game three? Such doom and gloom.

Connor would flee for the KHL day one and Jack would stay in school and split for via free agency. If Brendan Lemieux is be too intimidated by our prospect pool to sign, what hope would these two kids have?

 

[brian_griffin]

The movie opens with a heavily disguised Garth Snow, in hiding and operating under an assumed name at an undisclosed location in South America.

As he sits in a mostly empty dive bar and downs his fifth whiskey of the afternoon and orders another, he begins to tell the barman his story…

(Flashback to a younger Snow watching video of Thomas Vanek and reaching for his phone to make a call.)

I lol'd.

I'll add: After ordering the drink, Snow reaches in his wallet for money. Inebriated, as he throws some denominations of peso notes on the bar, stuck to them is an old photo of Kevin Lowe with the autograph, "Garth - Succeed where I failed. All my best! Kevin".

The scenario is:

NYI lose last 2 in regulation (0 pts)
OTT win last 2
Pittsburg gets 3 out 4 possible points (they play Isles on Friday)
Boston gets 4 points out 6 possible points
Detroit gets 2 points out of possible 4 points

schedule:

NYI at PITT, Columbus
PIT NYI, at buffalo
OTT at rangers, at philly
BOS at washington, at florida, at Tampa bay
DET at Montreal, at Carolina

I think PITT getting 4 points is near 80% 30% for >/= 3 pts
I think the Isles get 0 points is around 40% 10%
I think Detroit getting 2 points is around 80% 70% for >/= 2 pts
I think Boston getting 4 points is around 50% 37% for >/= 4 pts
I think OTT to get 4 points is around 40% 10%

Multiply the probabilities together will give you the odds of NYI finishing outside the playoffs. About 5%

multiply that result by the odds of them winning the lottery gives you the odds of getting the #1. I dont recall the odds maybe 1%?

I think the odds are a reasonable that the NYI pick is around 17-18.

Random event probabilities above in bold.

Total random scenario probability:
(0.30 PIT * 0.10 NYI * 0.70 DET * 0.37 BOS * 0.10 OTT * 0.01 NYI lottery odds * 0.95 BUF 30th) = 0.00000738 = 0.000738% = 1 in 135473 = ~7.4 in 1 million

Djp's scenario is slightly >0.0005, or >/=0.05%, or 5 in 10,000 or 1 in 2000.

 

[fing0rz]

The scenario is:

NYI lose last 2 in regulation (0 pts)
OTT win last 2
Pittsburg gets 3 out 4 possible points (they play Isles on Friday)
Boston gets 4 points out 6 possible points
Detroit gets 2 points out of possible 4 points

schedule:

NYI at PITT, Columbus
PIT NYI, at buffalo
OTT at rangers, at philly
BOS at washington, at florida, at Tampa bay
DET at Montreal, at Carolina

I think PITT getting 4 points is near 80%
I think the Isles get 0 points is around 40%
I think Detroit getting 2 points is around 80%
I think Boston getting 4 points is around 50%
I think OTT to get 4 points is around 40%

Multiply the probabilities together will give you the odds of NYI finishing outside the playoffs. About 5%

multiply that result by the odds of them winning the lottery gives you the odds of getting the #1. I dont recall the odds maybe 1%?

I think the odds are a reasonable that the NYI pick is around 17-18.

How do you figure that pitts chance at 4 points is 80%?

Islanders game is most likely a coin flip and even if you gave them 75% chance against buffalo, that's 37.5% chance they get 4 points.

 

[Djp]

How do you figure that pitts chance at 4 points is 80%?

Islanders game is most likely a coin flip and even if you gave them 75% chance against buffalo, that's 37.5% chance they get 4 points.

100% they best buffalo. 80% they beat the isles. The game is at home and they know they are in must win mode because a loss means they could be out of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh beating buffalo in regulation assured buffalo a top 2 pick.

It's just my only personal guess. Your guess may be different.

 

[Djp]

I lol'd.

I'll add: After ordering the drink, Snow reaches in his wallet for money. Inebriated, as he throws some denominations of peso notes on the bar, stuck to them is an old photo of Kevin Lowe with the autograph, "Garth - Succeed where I failed. All my best! Kevin".



Random event probabilities above in bold.

Total random scenario probability:
(0.30 PIT * 0.10 NYI * 0.70 DET * 0.37 BOS * 0.10 OTT * 0.01 NYI lottery odds * 0.95 BUF 30th) = 0.00000738 = 0.000738% = 1 in 135473 = ~7.4 in 1 million

Djp's scenario is slightly >0.0005, or >/=0.05%, or 5 in 10,000 or 1 in 2000.

Just remember Pittsburgh odds are directly related to buffalo odds of ending in 30th. Pittsburgh winning in regulation on Saturday assures buffalo top 2.

Unsure if your simulation factored that in.

 

[brian_griffin]

Just remember Pittsburgh odds are directly related to buffalo odds of ending in 30th. Pittsburgh winning in regulation on Saturday assures buffalo top 2.

Unsure if your simulation factored that in.

You're right, I failed to consider that the BUF-PIT and NYI-PIT games are not mutually exclusive outcomes. I'll need to re-think it. Don't know if my brain can handle it, though.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

I want to see the video of Garth Snow's reaction the moment he sees that the Islanders are missing the playoffs.

 

[Moskau]

Boston getting no points tonight certainly didn't help. Anytime an Islanders related thread around here is bumped they seem to get help.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Where's Garth?

The Islanders GM, Garth Snow has not been seen in public for several days. Any truth to the rumor that as the sole remaining witness to the Heist of the Century he's entered the Witness Protection Program?

Run, Garth. Run. See Garth run.

 

[Jim Bob]

Boston getting shutout last night helped the Isles.

They now have a 98% chance of making the playoffs even if they go 0-2-0.

 

[haseoke39]

Yeah, Boston now has to win back to back vs Florida and Tampa to leapfrog the islanders.

Really, though, the tough game to bet on, the one that's the threshold for me really considering this seriously, is Ottawa vs NYR. If the sens win that, then it gets interesting.

 

[haseoke39]

So to sum up tonight: Boston and Ottawa must win, Detroit can afford to lose against Montreal and still come up winners against Carolina on Saturday.

Oh, and Arizona winning would be great, thanks.

 

[McCauleyChirps]

http://nypost.com/2015/04/08/islanders-season-of-hope-two-games-away-from-unthinkable/

Islanders’ season of hope two games away from unthinkable

There’s a doomsday scenario brewing, even if the Islanders are not willing to acknowledge it.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Yeah, Boston now has to win back to back vs Florida and Tampa to leapfrog the islanders.

Really, though, the tough game to bet on, the one that's the threshold for me really considering this seriously, is Ottawa vs NYR. If the sens win that, then it gets interesting.

Guess what!

Bruins up 1 - 0

Ottawa about to beat Rangers 2 - 0

 

[haseoke39]

Well, Boston has to get two goals here in ten minutes just to get to OT. The dream might be just about over here.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Well, Boston has to get two goals here in ten minutes just to get to OT. The dream might be just about over here.

I never suspected that of all the possible scenarios, the Bruins would be the weakest link. It would be a shame to see this all collapse because of a single loss by Boston.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Bruins now down by just 1 goal!

 

[DazedandConfused]

B's are done for, save a miracle. Isles will clinch but they can still drop 6 more spots overall if few teams win out (I haven't looked if some of these teams play eachother).

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Phoque. Yet another reason to hate Boston. Hope Bruins miss playoffs also.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

B's are done for, save a miracle. Isles will clinch but they can still drop 6 more spots overall if few teams win out (I haven't looked if some of these teams play eachother).

Isn't draft position for playoff teams based on position after playoffs?

 

[DazedandConfused]

Isn't draft position for playoff teams based on position after playoffs?

I could be wrong but I think it goes something like

Cup Finalists

Div Winners/Conf Finals

2nd Round Exits by season seed

1st Round exits by season seed

So from my understanding the lower seed they are the higher they'll pick if eliminated in the first round. Someone please correct me if I'm off on this, this stuff changes every damn year.