Getting the TRUE McEichel - Buffalo's Perfect Storm

[The Ugly Truth*]

What are the odds that THIS Perfect Storm hits Buffalo:

Islanders lose final 3 games.
Ottawa win final 3 games (including in OT to Penguins on Tuesday)... but today's loss to the putrid Leafs was HUGE.
Detroit get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Pittsburgh get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Islanders miss playoffs despite getting 98 points - which would probably be a record for the highest point total for any non-playoff team.
Despite having only a 1% chance as the highest placed non-playoff team, Islanders win the draft lottery.
Garth Snow goes into hiding.
Buffalo picks McDavid 1st and Eichel 2nd, instantly creating another Crosby/Malkin monster to terrorize the hapless Eastern Conference for the next decade.

The True McEichel

Click to read more...

 

[Konix]

I'd really love to see some number crunching on how likely this actually is

 

[Husko]

I'd really love to see some number crunching on how likely this actually is

Well, IF the Islanders miss the playoffs, then it's a 1 percent chance.

Since you need them to miss and win the lottery, you multiply the odds together.

So you just have to figure out the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs. Sportsclubstats probably has it. Then multiply that by 1/100, or .01, for 1%.

 

[Husko]

Well, IF the Islanders miss the playoffs, then it's a 1 percent chance.

Since you need them to miss and win the lottery, you multiply the odds together.

So you just have to figure out the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs. Sportsclubstats probably has it. Then multiply that by 1/100, or .01, for 1%.

99.99% chance the Islanders make the playoffs, according to sportsclubstats. So, .0001 X .01 = .000001

So that's .0001%

Or, you could call it 1% of 1% of 1%

 

[misterchainsaw]

Well, IF the Islanders miss the playoffs, then it's a 1 percent chance.

Since you need them to miss and win the lottery, you multiply the odds together.

So you just have to figure out the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs. Sportsclubstats probably has it. Then multiply that by 1/100, or .01, for 1%.

You also have to multiply that by the odds Buffalo finishes last, since if the Isles pick wins the lottery we'd be picking 3rd if we "catch" Arizona.

 

[Husko]

You also have to multiply that by the odds Buffalo finishes last, since if the Isles pick wins the lottery we'd be picking 3rd if we "catch" Arizona.

That's 98%?

Brings us to .000098% chance

 

[Brawnstud]

That's 98%?

Brings us to .000098% chance

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

1 in 100,000 chance for Sabres to land BOTH McDavid and Eichel?

Well, IF the Islanders miss the playoffs, then it's a 1 percent chance.

Since you need them to miss and win the lottery, you multiply the odds together.

So you just have to figure out the odds of the Islanders missing the playoffs. Sportsclubstats probably has it. Then multiply that by 1/100, or .01, for 1%.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html

I didn't read how they calculate the odds, but they are giving the Islanders a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which seems a bit high. I suspect they don't look at things like trends/recent record, etc.

So as of today the chance* of the Buffalo Perfect Storm is 0.01×0.001 = 0.00001 (1 in 100,000?) if my finger and toe counting math is correct.


*I am not an accountant and actually initially came up with odds of 1%. That didn't seem right, so I took off my shoes and socks, recalculated and came up with 1 in 100,000.

 

[brian_griffin]

That's 98%?

Brings us to .000098% chance

0.0001% is 1 in a million. So 0.000098% is < 1 in a million.

 

[misterchainsaw]

That's 98%?

Brings us to .000098% chance

Wrong math deleted

EDIT: I got 99.9% from SCS rather than 99.99% (and I got 99.92% when I derived a less rounded number from their information) which increases the odds by a power of ten. That's what the above calculation is based on.

RE-EDIT: All this converting people are doing from percent to decimals and back (as well as the extra place pointed out above) messed me up . 1% * .1% * 98.5% = .000985% or close enough to 1 in 100000. That's picking up 6 dice and rolling nothing but 1's and then following that up by winning a coin flip at the end of it.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

You also have to multiply that by the odds Buffalo finishes last, since if the Isles pick wins the lottery we'd be picking 3rd if we "catch" Arizona.

I think the odds of Buffalo finishing last now are so high it doesn't significantly affect the calculation.

Just by going with pure coin flip odds, the odds of Buffalo winning each of its three games is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8, while the odds of Arizona losing each of its three games is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8. So the odds of both of those things happening would be 1/8×1/8 = 1/64 = 1.6%. I'll leave it up to the math majors out there to recalculate the odds using the possibilities of points gained from ties!

Anyway, if it came down to the final game and there still being a mathematical possibility of moving into 29th place, I suspect the locker room would get a visit from Pegula before the game starts...

 

[misterchainsaw]

I think the odds of Buffalo finishing last now are so high it doesn't significantly affect the calculation.

Just by going with pure coin flip odds, the odds of Buffalo winning each of its three games is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8, while the odds of Arizona losing each of its three games is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8. So the odds of both of those things happening would be 1/8×1/8 = 1/64 = 1.6%. I'll leave it up to the math majors out there to recalculate the odds using the possibilities of points gained from ties!

Anyway, if it came down to the final game and there still being a mathematical possibility of moving into 29th place, I suspect the locker room would get a visit from Pegula before the game starts...

Of the Islanders finishing out of the playoffs (.1%), the Islanders winnig the lottery given they miss the playoffs (1%), and the Sabres not finishing last (1.5% according to SCS), the last is actually the MOST likely to happen.

And while that scenario only reduces the odds of the final condition we're shooting for by 1.5%, that just goes to show how unlikely this scenario really is.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Of the Islanders finishing out of the playoffs (.1%), the Islanders winnig the lottery given they miss the playoffs (1%), and the Sabres not finishing last (1.5% according to SCS), the last is actually the MOST likely to happen.

And while that scenario only reduces the odds of the final condition we're shooting for by 1.5%, that just goes to show how unlikely this scenario really is.

Like I said:
“I think the odds of Buffalo finishing last now are so high it doesn't significantly affect the calculation.â€

Here's some more Fun With Math:
- Odds of Buffalo drafting BOTH McDavid and Eichel = 1 in 100,000
- Odds of Islanders GM Garth Snow “disappearing†(permanently?) if the TRUE McEichel happens = 1 in 1
- Odds of the Buffalo McEichels (new team name) winning the Cup = Pretty Damn High
- Odds of Islander fans ever forgiving Snow = 1 in a kajillion
- Odds of Snow soiling himself during the final Islanders game = 1 in 10

 

[Namejs]

To put that into perspective, you're about 20% more likely to pick up 5 dice and roll a 1 with each die, or to win 13 coin flips in a row.

EDIT: I got 99.9% from SCS rather than 99.99% (and I got 99.92% when I derived a less rounded number from their information) which increases the odds by a power of ten. That's what the above calculation is based on.

Yup, it's 99.922% according to SCS.

But the SCS numbers are not the holy grail, they're imprecise, especially when dealing with extreme scenarios.

I browsed through the odds provided by bookmakers (both current and historical), and the probability of the Islanders not making play-offs is actually around 0.4%.

0.4%*1%*98%= roughly a 1 in 25 000 chance of it all happening, not 1 in 100,000.

 

[CaptPantalones]

Not interested in the math parts of all this lol

IF, obviously big IF that were to happen, then you do what the pens should have done.

You draft mcdavid at 1and you trade 2 for an absolute ransom. Build the rest of the team around 97 with the return.

Pens should have never kept Malkin and traded staal

 

[jBuds]

The Ugly Truth is the inevitably imminent: winning out in regulaish and seeing Feanicks Arrazona lose out badly.

I need certainty. Solid concrete evidence. Proof. Sharpie ink or a URL or screenshot of standings when it's done.

COME ON, baby.

 

[The Ugly Truth*]

Yup, it's 99.922% according to SCS.

But the SCS numbers are not the holy grail, they're imprecise, especially when dealing with extreme scenarios.

I browsed through the odds provided by bookmakers (both current and historical), and the probability of the Islanders not making play-offs is actually around 0.4%.

0.4%*1%*98%= roughly a 1 in 25 000 chance of it all happening, not 1 in 100,000.

Except historical odds aren't that relevant now. A few weeks ago it seemed that it would be highly unlikely for the Islanders to not make the playoffs. But if they lose the next two games the odds of them not making the playoffs is going to be a lot higher than "0.4%". If it ever comes down to one game to go and those bookies still want to give 0.4% odds I'll take that bet all day long!

Looking at how badly the Islanders have been choking recently I'm going to go on record with the bold prediction that they will miss the playoffs and the Sabres will end up with both the first and second picks. Who needs Fancy Stats and highfalutin math when you can just go with your gut?

 

[MayDay]

It'd never happen, but it would be worth it just to see all the aneurysms this would cause on HFBoards. The main board would explode with rage. The whole site might crash.

And I'd worry for the well-being of MattMartin's computer. It may get destroyed.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

The Ugly Truth is the inevitably imminent: winning out in regulaish and seeing Feanicks Arrazona lose out badly.

I need certainty. Solid concrete evidence. Proof. Sharpie ink or a URL or screenshot of standings when it's done.

COME ON, baby.

Never a truer set of words posted here. People as usual, are getting well ahead of themselves.

At this point I'd still just take 30th, losing lottery, getting Eichel & running.

 

[RiotAct]

And I'd worry for the well-being of MattMartin's computer. It may get destroyed.

.... who?

 

[SackTastic]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html

I didn't read how they calculate the odds, but they are giving the Islanders a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, which seems a bit high. I suspect they don't look at things like trends/recent record, etc.

So as of today the chance* of the Buffalo Perfect Storm is 0.01×0.001 = 0.00001 (1 in 100,000?) if my finger and toe counting math is correct.


*I am not an accountant and actually initially came up with odds of 1%. That didn't seem right, so I took off my shoes and socks, recalculated and came up with 1 in 100,000.

Incorrectly.

 

[Karate Johnson*]

This should have happened. The Isles hot start is a total fluke, they have talent but they aren't THAT good. And they have an awful coach.

But, let's say a total miracle occured..... Would you be a little worried?

For things to work out like that for Buffalo would be somewhat alarming to me. Like I might start stocking up on survival supplies

 

[DeadGhost]

If we finish 29th and lose the lottery please rename this thread Perfect Strome.

 

[Namejs]

Except historical odds aren't that relevant now. A few weeks ago it seemed that it would be highly unlikely for the Islanders to not make the playoffs. But if they lose the next two games the odds of them not making the playoffs is going to be a lot higher than "0.4%". If it ever comes down to one game to go and those bookies still want to give 0.4% odds I'll take that bet all day long!

Looking at how badly the Islanders have been choking recently I'm going to go on record with the bold prediction that they will miss the playoffs and the Sabres will end up with both the first and second picks. Who needs Fancy Stats and highfalutin math when you can just go with your gut?

By historical odds I generally meant odds from previous weeks/months, accounting for home/away advantage, etc. Yes, there are going to be some fluctuations due to form, changes in lineup and so on, but the differences are always pretty minor.

I mean, if the implied probability of Pens getting at least 4 out 6 possible points is 70% based on current+previous odds, it's not going to be 35% or 90% now. The margin of error is pretty small (I'd say 5% to 10%), so it doesn't really change anything substantially.

Not to mention that things sort of even themselves out (Islanders are struggling and their chances of losing should be higher, while, say, the Pens are struggling as well and their chances of winning should be lower when compared to previous odds earlier this season).

 

[Jim Bob]

You are about as likely to win the Powerball.