MayDay
Registered User
Islanders fan who's obsessively bitter about the fact that we had an "Isles Tank Thread" on our board and has been trolling and antagonizing Sabres fans all season long.
Islanders fan who's obsessively bitter about the fact that we had an "Isles Tank Thread" on our board and has been trolling and antagonizing Sabres fans all season long.
RiotAct
Panickin' 4 Hanifin
Oh.
I guess we should just be good little fans and be happy with mediocrity for the next several years instead of hoping to get better.
Not really. (Unless you were to buy 7000 lottery tickets).You are about as likely to win the Powerball.
SackTastic
Registered User
- Mar 25, 2011
- 7,829
- 1,915
Yup, it's 99.922% according to SCS.
But the SCS numbers are not the holy grail, they're imprecise, especially when dealing with extreme scenarios.
I browsed through the odds provided by bookmakers (both current and historical), and the probability of the Islanders not making play-offs is actually around 0.4%.
0.4%*1%*98%= roughly a 1 in 25 000 chance of it all happening, not 1 in 100,000.
Don't ever do this. (At least not if you want to be close to correct.)
Book odds are created to influence the flow of betting, not to represent true chance of an outcome. A perfect book is 'balanced' such that after an event, all the bets on the loser are used to pay off the bets on the winners, and the bookie makes out because they keep the vig from taking the bet in the first place.
HiddenInLight
Registered User
- Sep 4, 2011
- 3,908
- 17
HiddenInLight
Registered User
- Sep 4, 2011
- 3,908
- 17
"With the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, buffalo sabres pick Jack Eichel"
-camera pans over to murray-
SackTastic
Registered User
- Mar 25, 2011
- 7,829
- 1,915
I was thinking about this last night. If the Islanders miss the playoffs, we have a 1% chance of getting both guys. Hell, I would take that.
Can you imagine the team if we do. How in the world would we fit everyone under the salary cap in 3-5 years?
We get a top 10 goalie and we would have a dynasty on par with Oilers and Islanders of the 80's and Canadiens of the 70's. A line of McDavid, Eichel, and Reinhart in their prime would be like Crosby-Yzerman-Francis.
Can you imagine the team if we do. How in the world would we fit everyone under the salary cap in 3-5 years?
We get a top 10 goalie and we would have a dynasty on par with Oilers and Islanders of the 80's and Canadiens of the 70's. A line of McDavid, Eichel, and Reinhart in their prime would be like Crosby-Yzerman-Francis.
Sabre Dance
Make Hockey Fun Again
- Jul 27, 2006
- 12,458
- 2,249
Sabres fans would have to hide in this Sabres partition of the forums for like a year. And mods would literally have to ban people for like via IP addresses to stop them from spewing crap in the Sabres forum.
--------------------------
But hey don't feel silly about posting this. Some Hockey writer blogger just posted an entire article about Edmonton's chances at McDavid AND Strome if Edmonton's Pittsburgh pick goes to the lottery.
I don't care att this point. I just hope the Penguins game means something to Pittsburgh just in case.
HiddenInLight
Registered User
- Sep 4, 2011
- 3,908
- 17
Hopefully it won't come down to that. As long as the sabres lose one game in regulation or Arizona wins any game in the last few, we clinch 30th.
Royisgone
Registered User
- Mar 7, 2012
- 2,203
- 516
What are the odds that THIS Perfect Storm hits Buffalo:
Islanders lose final 3 games.
Ottawa win final 3 games (including in OT to Penguins on Tuesday)... but today's loss to the putrid Leafs was HUGE.
Detroit get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Pittsburgh get at least 4 out of 6 possible remaining points.
Islanders miss playoffs despite getting 98 points - which would probably be a record for the highest point total for any non-playoff team.
Despite having only a 1% chance as the highest placed non-playoff team, Islanders win the draft lottery.
Garth Snow goes into hiding.
Buffalo picks McDavid 1st and Eichel 2nd, instantly creating another Crosby/Malkin monster to terrorize the hapless Eastern Conference for the next decade.
The True McEichel
Your Crosby/Malkin "monster" isn't all that scary.
If we are going to engage in fantasy, I'll take Toews and Patrice Bergeron...but that's a topic for another thread.
cardiffgiant
Continue without supporting us
- Sep 28, 2005
- 2,546
- 323
You don't know him? I'm shocked. He's the favorite to win the 2014/2015 Moral Cup.
Kinda hard to win in the playoffs when you're saddled with that sieve/choke artist Fleury as your "franchaise goalie" that no one in management was smart enough to dump while Cindy and Geno wasted away the primes of their careers. (The elephant in the Penguins dressing room.)
How about a Gretzky/Kurri monster. Or a Bossy/Trottier monster. Or a Yzerman/Shanahan monster. Or a Hull/Mikita monster.
You know, hockey history goes back further than 2003. History shows that two hall of fame players on the same team tends to lead to more cups.
Paxon
202* Stanley Cup Champions
Zman5778
Moderator
..ummmmm no.
If we're trading a pick, we trade #2.
Why on earth would one willingly give away McDavid when the package for Eichel would largely be just as good, minus a piece?
Husko
Registered User
Zman5778
Moderator
Imagine, in 2-3 years time:
Baptiste-McDavid-Eichel
Fasching-Reinhart-Kane
Ennis-Larsson-Compher
Foligno-????-Des
Holy. Effing. Wow.
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