General COVID-19 Talk #3 NHL Qualifiers begin August 1 MOD Warning

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tny760

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This chart is by date of death.
There haven't been double digit deaths since 10 on 8/31

View attachment 368877

The chart only goes up to 9/20
i was gonna say, that stinks like backlog to me, week of steady ~160 hospitalized/50 in ICU, then suddenly 50 deaths over a couple days but still steady ~160/50.. it's not people in hospital that are actively dying, it's backlogged deaths being assigned

in SD we've had days where suddenly there's 10-13k tests all of a sudden when we're usually doing 5-7k but it's just repeated backlog influxes skewing the numbers day after day after day

guess the state's reassessing county statuses on tuesday, even though there's basically nothing happening in the county and hasn't been for weeks i'm sure they'll find a way to f*** us on "adjusted case rate" or arbitrary "community outbreaks" thanks to dipshit kids partying at SDSU
 

Lt Dan

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Sep 13, 2018
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upload_2020-9-28_13-22-9.png




4.3% positive tests today
Hospitalization went up a little over the weekend , twas at 157 on Friday
ICU down from 50 on Friday

Rolling 7 day


Rolling 7 day average
0-Mon
2-Sun
10-Sat
22-Fri
6-Thurs
26-Wed
22-Tues

the average rises to 12.57, from 11.57 friday



A 22 replaced a 8 so it climbs to 11.57
 

KINGS17

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Apr 6, 2006
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College football will play all 41 bowl games this season.

Mandel: All 41 bowl games are back on, so here are my first projections

The mass uncertainty that hovered over the 2020 offseason prevented me from writing one of my favorite stories of the year: Preseason bowl projections. There was no way of knowing which bowls would be played, much less trying to predict who would go where.

All that changed last week, however, when the Pac-12, Mountain West and MAC announced their returns (on the heels of the Big Ten), and the NCAA Football Oversight Committee officially signed off on waiving bowl eligibility requirements for this year.

So, does that mean all 41 scheduled bowls be played this season?

“Absolutely,” Football Bowl Association Executive Director Nick Carparelli said Monday. “With all the conferences playing, (the NCAA waiver) is not necessarily to ensure enough teams are available, but just to ensure the conferences can fulfill their agreements without having to worry about which teams are .500 or better.”

The Rose Bowl will be a 6-on-6 game as there are no "cohorts" (again Newsom's words) of greater than 12 allowed to participate in contact sports. No word yet on whether or not children will actually be attending schools yet in California by the time Alabama and Ohio State meet in the Rose Bowl, but it is certain children will not be attending schools until after the election when COVID-19 magically will subside.

The NCAA is feverishly developing rules for a 6-on-6 game for the playoff semifinal game.
 
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Schrute farms

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College football will play all 41 bowl games this season.

No word yet on whether or not children will actually be attending schools yet in California by the time Alabama and Ohio State meet in the Rose Bowl, but it is certain children will not be attending schools until after the election when COVID-19 magically will subside.
.

Children are attending schools in California right now. I believe you mean "all children" -- big difference, but that doesn't help your agenda. Stick to facts and not agenda. Otherwise you are no better than the other side you despise so much.
 

HeadInjury

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Has anyone posted the current CDC best estimate survivability rates?

  • 0-19 years old survivability rate is 99.997%
  • 20-49 years old survivability rate is 99.98%
  • 50-69 years old survivability rate is 99.5%
  • 70 years old or older survivability rate is 94.6%

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
 
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KINGS17

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Children are attending schools in California right now. I believe you mean "all children" -- big difference, but that doesn't help your agenda. Stick to facts and not agenda. Otherwise you are no better than the other side you despise so much.
I despise illogical decisions. It doesn't matter who is making the decision. Yes, I mean all children. There is absolutely no reason in-person classroom education is not available in our schools today. Whether or not parents choose to avail themselves and their children the opportunity to attend is a personal decision which may be based on several factors. For example, if your child occupies the same residence as an elderly person with underlying health conditions, it might be a good idea to have them stay home.
 
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KINGS17

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And just like that, estimates and the CDC are a good thing again.
Estimates were acceptable to lock things down in the early going. I have no issue with what was done until we knew more. Now we know more about the virus and who it impacts the most.
 

tny760

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And just like that, estimates and the CDC are a good thing again.
i'd argue those aren't so much estimates as statistics at this point in the game

i'm not gonna parade it around personally because the CDC themselves call that paper "best case scenario" but we're not far removed from being told 1.7M people were gonna die, so something is being done right at some level
 

Fishhead

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I despise illogical decisions. It doesn't matter who is making the decision. Yes, I mean all children. There is absolutely no reason in-person classroom education is not available in our schools today. Whether or not parents choose to avail themselves and their children the opportunity to attend is a personal decision which may be based on several factors. For example, if your child occupies the same residence as an elderly person with underlying health conditions, it might be a good idea to have them stay home.

I do agree with this, the option should be there. But in reality it's difficult, if not impossible, to do this. I'll give you some middle/high school perspective, but note that I feel this doesn't really apply to elementary. They have smaller classes and I see little reason why k-6 students shouldn't be on campus based on current data. Even if they choose to go remote, the material is so simple that any adult at home can grasp it and help out.

Teaching single subjects online is completely different than teaching in person. You can't just post assignments and have the remote students do them without explanation, doing so is practically worthless and you'll get very little buy in. Being a parent who is also an instructor, I'm very comfortable in saying at least 80% of parents are terrible instructors and cannot help their students at home. They are stressed out, don't have the patience, and don't have the skills. It's not their fault, I fail miserably at things I don't know how to do too. I can't expect my typical parent at home to understand even basic scientific theory, it's not fair to them.

So what are the options?

The best is live streaming/recording lectures, but the infrastructure would need to be in place already. Teachers need multiple devices to do this, you can't just stick a laptop on your desk and press record. Remote students won't hear/understand you well if you do and your camera probably isn't going to pick up much of anything on your screen unless you have a high contrast LCD display. A typical classroom projector will be mostly washed out stuff that's difficult to read. If live streaming, you need enough bandwidth to make it possible (a rarity on campuses) and understand how to actually pull it off. You need to be able to hear your remote attendees and be able to interact with them. You need a backup streaming system if yours is down. Most teachers have to buy supplies of their own because of budgets, so unless a school is already 1:1 this isn't an option for 95% of public schools out there. They can do it cheaply, but it's going to suck. Students are going to whine and use it as an excuse to do nothing, then parents are going to whine because they are missing work for their students to fail.

Another option is to have teachers run online meetings outside of school hours, which isn't feasible either. There isn't enough time in the day, my brain is literally always on the clock due to streams of emails and I'm in a much better situation than most. Hiring new teachers or expanding online homeschool isn't a viable option, there is a shortage of teachers as it is so you aren't going to find anyone qualified when they know it's like a temporary holiday contract. And most budgets prevent this anyways.

So what we end up with is an all or none approach which is the only thing that most schools can afford. And it's BS because it didn't have to be that way. For years teachers knew there was little preparedness and even less accountability from the educational system, now it's biting them in the ass.

The best option as a parent is to send your kids to a private school where they have all these things. I have the ability to livestream, I have two devices and a camera and all the necessary audio equipment, a dedicated livestream/recording virtual classroom (not Zoom, Meet, or any of that stuff), and more bandwidth than I could ever use. The downside is it's a huge amount of work (way more than usual) and if I don't get shit done it's my own damn fault. With that comes high expectations, which I am fine with. From a parental point of view the elephant in the room is that even with financial aid, most families can't afford that even during the best of times, let alone when people are out of work. So what we end up with is a bigger gap between the well to do and the folks who struggle, which doesn't help matters at all. Not to mention it's not fair to the kids when their only sin was being born to a family who has to struggle to make it.

The education system in this country is perpetually hanging on by a thread as it is. Like someone living paycheck to paycheck, it wasn't prepared for any disaster or event and it's really showing. The only positive I've seen is I don't have to read the "Teachers don't work Summers off lulz" stuff anymore. The first month of parents teaching their kids took care of that. :laugh: My biggest hope is that once this is all over that schools realize it could and will happen again, and our educational system cleans up their bureaucratic mess of excess administrators to actually become somewhat efficient. I'm sure I will be disappointed.
 

KINGS17

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Apr 6, 2006
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I do agree with this, the option should be there. But in reality it's difficult, if not impossible, to do this. I'll give you some middle/high school perspective, but note that I feel this doesn't really apply to elementary. They have smaller classes and I see little reason why k-6 students shouldn't be on campus based on current data. Even if they choose to go remote, the material is so simple that any adult at home can grasp it and help out.

Teaching single subjects online is completely different than teaching in person. You can't just post assignments and have the remote students do them without explanation, doing so is practically worthless and you'll get very little buy in. Being a parent who is also an instructor, I'm very comfortable in saying at least 80% of parents are terrible instructors and cannot help their students at home. They are stressed out, don't have the patience, and don't have the skills. It's not their fault, I fail miserably at things I don't know how to do too. I can't expect my typical parent at home to understand even basic scientific theory, it's not fair to them.

So what are the options?

The best is live streaming/recording lectures, but the infrastructure would need to be in place already. Teachers need multiple devices to do this, you can't just stick a laptop on your desk and press record. Remote students won't hear/understand you well if you do and your camera probably isn't going to pick up much of anything on your screen unless you have a high contrast LCD display. A typical classroom projector will be mostly washed out stuff that's difficult to read. If live streaming, you need enough bandwidth to make it possible (a rarity on campuses) and understand how to actually pull it off. You need to be able to hear your remote attendees and be able to interact with them. You need a backup streaming system if yours is down. Most teachers have to buy supplies of their own because of budgets, so unless a school is already 1:1 this isn't an option for 95% of public schools out there. They can do it cheaply, but it's going to suck. Students are going to whine and use it as an excuse to do nothing, then parents are going to whine because they are missing work for their students to fail.

Another option is to have teachers run online meetings outside of school hours, which isn't feasible either. There isn't enough time in the day, my brain is literally always on the clock due to streams of emails and I'm in a much better situation than most. Hiring new teachers or expanding online homeschool isn't a viable option, there is a shortage of teachers as it is so you aren't going to find anyone qualified when they know it's like a temporary holiday contract. And most budgets prevent this anyways.

So what we end up with is an all or none approach which is the only thing that most schools can afford. And it's BS because it didn't have to be that way. For years teachers knew there was little preparedness and even less accountability from the educational system, now it's biting them in the ass.

The best option as a parent is to send your kids to a private school where they have all these things. I have the ability to livestream, I have two devices and a camera and all the necessary audio equipment, a dedicated livestream/recording virtual classroom (not Zoom, Meet, or any of that stuff), and more bandwidth than I could ever use. The downside is it's a huge amount of work (way more than usual) and if I don't get shit done it's my own damn fault. With that comes high expectations, which I am fine with. From a parental point of view the elephant in the room is that even with financial aid, most families can't afford that even during the best of times, let alone when people are out of work. So what we end up with is a bigger gap between the well to do and the folks who struggle, which doesn't help matters at all. Not to mention it's not fair to the kids when their only sin was being born to a family who has to struggle to make it.

The education system in this country is perpetually hanging on by a thread as it is. Like someone living paycheck to paycheck, it wasn't prepared for any disaster or event and it's really showing. The only positive I've seen is I don't have to read the "Teachers don't work Summers off lulz" stuff anymore. The first month of parents teaching their kids took care of that. :laugh: My biggest hope is that once this is all over that schools realize it could and will happen again, and our educational system cleans up their bureaucratic mess of excess administrators to actually become somewhat efficient. I'm sure I will be disappointed.

I am wondering if this is heading toward a system where we have the best instructors develop recorded on-line courses and teach them to students on a big screen in a classroom which is monitored or proctored by someone who can assist them. Students need the social interaction at school in order to develop into being "useful humans", but maybe some of the gaps in terms of quality of instruction might be addressed in this way.
 
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Fishhead

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I am wondering if this is heading toward a system where we have the best instructors develop recorded on-line courses and teach them to students on a big screen in a classroom which is monitored or proctored by someone who can assist them. Students need the social interaction at school in order to develop into being "useful humans", but maybe some of the gaps in terms of quality of instruction might be addressed in this way.

This is a great idea, which means that it's likely never been thought of by government/public school administrators. I'm actually doing this very thing in a blended course right now. I record all my lectures, put up useful videos, and record instructions for labs and projects that we are doing when we meet weekly. None of our class time is wasted with me talking, it's all working collaboratively on projects or asking questions about concepts. I get more done in a single class than two of my standard classes. We currently do courses like this for advanced students who are good at managing time, they take the courses for the extra units and to qualify for more rigorous college programs. You wouldn't really even need proctors, but it does open up the opportunity for peer teaching, units for college students, and so on.

There are some great perks to a system like this. Once the legwork is done and the videos made, the instructor can focus 100% on the student and not have to worry about students not absorbing live lectures. Everybody is more engaged, including the teacher. Because live meeting time isn't taken up by presenting material, meetings can be half as long making space for more of them with much smaller class sizes. Students and instructors would actually get to know each other. Students could watch lecture/assignment videos at home and come on campus for meetings, or come to campus all day and watch them in designated locations, like the library, outdoor areas, and so on. It's super flexible, it would work during a pandemic, during "normal" times, if a student goes on a college trip, sports trip, gets mono, has a surgery, and so on.

The only difficulty would be getting students who struggle to pay attention used to a system like this where they actually have to take some initiative and responsibility for their own learning. Once that's established, this would work for just about any student.
 
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Raccoon Jesus

Todd McLellan is an inside agent
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That system already exists in many colleges. There was a lot of debate several years back about the efficiency vs. effectiveness of it as they kept scaling up to hundreds and then thousands of students. I cannot for the life of me remember what the term for it was though.
 

KINGS17

Smartest in the Room
Apr 6, 2006
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This is a great idea, which means that it's likely never been thought of by government/public school administrators. I'm actually doing this very thing in a blended course right now. I record all my lectures, put up useful videos, and record instructions for labs and projects that we are doing when we meet weekly. None of our class time is wasted with me talking, it's all working collaboratively on projects or asking questions about concepts. I get more done in a single class than two of my standard classes. We currently do courses like this for advanced students who are good at managing time, they take the courses for the extra units and to qualify for more rigorous college programs. You wouldn't really even need proctors, but it does open up the opportunity for peer teaching, units for college students, and so on.

There are some great perks to a system like this. Once the legwork is done and the videos made, the instructor can focus 100% on the student and not have to worry about students not absorbing live lectures. Everybody is more engaged, including the teacher. Because live meeting time isn't taken up by presenting material, meetings can be half as long making space for more of them with much smaller class sizes. Students and instructors would actually get to know each other. Students could watch lecture/assignment videos at home and come on campus for meetings, or come to campus all day and watch them in designated locations, like the library, outdoor areas, and so on. It's super flexible, it would work during a pandemic, during "normal" times, if a student goes on a college trip, sports trip, gets mono, has a surgery, and so on.

The only difficulty would be getting students who struggle to pay attention used to a system like this where they actually have to take some initiative and responsibility for their own learning. Once that's established, this would work for just about any student.

I think you are correct in pointing out this issue, but in the long run learning how to take the initiative is also an important skill to learn and develop.

One of the things I like about this approach is parents (if they so desire) can be engaged and watch the course content for themselves in order to help their kids, or even ask questions regarding the curriculum. Better informed parents would be a good thing in my opinion.
 

tny760

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Mar 12, 2017
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weird, another ~160/50 but suddenly 33 deaths...

but not really weird at all.
 

KINGS17

Smartest in the Room
Apr 6, 2006
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Steelers vs Titans has been postponed, due to positive COVID-19 tests among Tennessee players. Tennessee played Minnesota last weekend and Viking players have been told not to report to the practice facility.
 

Lt Dan

F*** your ice cream!
Sep 13, 2018
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weird, another ~160/50 but suddenly 33 deaths...

but not really weird at all.
Indeed

Assuming that there is no funny business with the numbers, these deaths are all weeks old and the positive tests have been very low and the hospitalization and ICU numbers indicate that we are doing pretty good
 

Lt Dan

F*** your ice cream!
Sep 13, 2018
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Bayou La Batre
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upload_2020-9-30_12-35-31.png


More deaths :(

2.7% positive tests today
Hospitalization did rise from 162 yesterday
ICU went up 2

I am going to pass on the 7 day average today, I have to get my magic legs fixed and will be off the grid until Monday so I will update it then
 

Fishhead

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The goalposts have moved again in California. You can't make this stuff up, because none of you are this stupid.

California adds COVID-19 equity requirement that could trip up counties’ reopenings | KTLA

I'm not even sure what difference this will make. We've long known those are areas with the highest cases, they are already the limiting factor. OC would have been in tier 2 a long time ago without those areas, they already focus on them. Sounds like a bunch of wasted time on something that's not even necessary, unless there are counties that are specifically ignoring those areas. They certainly aren't in the populated areas. Totally puzzling.
 

tny760

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Mar 12, 2017
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now i'm not a lawyer but that sounds a bit unconstitutional to me
 
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