General COVID-19 Talk #3 NHL Qualifiers begin August 1 MOD Warning

[Fishhead]

Found some interesting data about COVID and Educational Levels.

The 10 counties in California with the highest case rates for COVID are:

Imperial
Kings
Kern
Tulare
Merced
Stanislaus
Fresno
San Joaquin
Los Angeles
Madera

If you look at a list of counties with the highest percentage of people with a Bachelors or higher, only one of these counties are in the top 25 (Los Angeles at #19). There are exceptions of course. Marin has the highest % of BA/BS degrees but is #11 on case rate, but for the most part it's a pretty solid trend.

Out of the top 20 counties with the highest cases, only 4 of them rank within the top 25 counties with BA/BS

Los Angeles - 9th in cases, #19 in education
Marin - 11th in cases, #1 in education (outlier?)
Santa Barbara - 16th in cases, 16th in education
Orange - 20th in cases, 9th in education

Furthermore, here are the counties with the highest case rates vs. county ranking by highest school dropout rate (less than high school diploma or GED equivalent):

1. Imperial - #1 in dropout rate
2. Kings - #7 in dropout rate
3. Kern - #8 in dropout rate
4. Tulare - #4 in dropout rate
5. Merced - #2 in dropout rate
6. Stanislaus - #12 in dropout rate
7. Fresno - #9 in dropout rate
8. San Joaquin - #14 in dropout rate
9. Los Angeles - #13 in dropout rate
10. Madera - #6 in dropout rate

7 of the top case rates are in the top 10 in dropout rate. The top 10 counties have at least a 25% dropout rate. Imperial has a whopping 31%.

Note some counties have a high # of BA/BS and a high number of dropouts. Los Angeles (above), Santa Barbara is 16th in dropouts, OC is 25th. You start seeing better performing counties near the bottom of the dropout list, but the % drops off. OC for example only has a 15% dropout rate. I would expect that both LA and OC would perform much better, but their high population densities make it more difficult for them. Some of these counties have barely any people but are still finding ways to spread it around at a high rate.

This isn't unexpected, but the correlation is much stronger than I thought it would be.

 

[Token]

Marin - 11th in cases, #1 in education (outlier?)

Marin has San Quentin that adds quite a bit to the numbers.

Would be fun to see where all the prisons land in this type of data.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Found some interesting data about COVID and Educational Levels.

The 10 counties in California with the highest case rates for COVID are:

Imperial
Kings
Kern
Tulare
Merced
Stanislaus
Fresno
San Joaquin
Los Angeles
Madera

If you look at a list of counties with the highest percentage of people with a Bachelors or higher, only one of these counties are in the top 25 (Los Angeles at #19). There are exceptions of course. Marin has the highest % of BA/BS degrees but is #11 on case rate, but for the most part it's a pretty solid trend.

Out of the top 20 counties with the highest cases, only 4 of them rank within the top 25 counties with BA/BS

Los Angeles - 9th in cases, #19 in education
Marin - 11th in cases, #1 in education (outlier?)
Santa Barbara - 16th in cases, 16th in education
Orange - 20th in cases, 9th in education

Furthermore, here are the counties with the highest case rates vs. county ranking by highest school dropout rate (less than high school diploma or GED equivalent):

1. Imperial - #1 in dropout rate
2. Kings - #7 in dropout rate
3. Kern - #8 in dropout rate
4. Tulare - #4 in dropout rate
5. Merced - #2 in dropout rate
6. Stanislaus - #12 in dropout rate
7. Fresno - #9 in dropout rate
8. San Joaquin - #14 in dropout rate
9. Los Angeles - #13 in dropout rate
10. Madera - #6 in dropout rate

7 of the top case rates are in the top 10 in dropout rate. The top 10 counties have at least a 25% dropout rate. Imperial has a whopping 31%.

Note some counties have a high # of BA/BS and a high number of dropouts. Los Angeles (above), Santa Barbara is 16th in dropouts, OC is 25th. You start seeing better performing counties near the bottom of the dropout list, but the % drops off. OC for example only has a 15% dropout rate. I would expect that both LA and OC would perform much better, but their high population densities make it more difficult for them. Some of these counties have barely any people but are still finding ways to spread it around at a high rate.

This isn't unexpected, but the correlation is much stronger than I thought it would be.

Good research. That is not at all surprising albeit unfortunate that some of those numbers are so high as it relates to drop out rate.

Percent who did not finish the 9th grade Data for Imperial County, CA - Graduation Rates on the Open Data Network

Imperial County, CA
Percent with an associate's degree	6.60%
College Graduation Rate	13.30%
Percent with a graduate or professional degree	4.10%
High School Graduation Rate	64.50%
Percent who did not finish the 9th grade	20.30%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[tny760]

damn, i dropped out of college and live in san diego

i must deserve covid

some of yall need better things to do with your time

 

[Fishhead]

damn, i dropped out of college and live in san diego

i must deserve covid

some of yall need better things to do with your time

No one deserves COVID, it's just data.

Identifying trends are helpful in suggesting where areas of focus should be.

 

[KINGS17]

Is it shocking people who work from home are less likely to catch COVID-19 than people who work in an industry where they must be personally engaged?

Is it shocking people who can work from home likely have a college degree?

I hope no one wasted a lot of time and money confirming the obvious.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Is it shocking people who work from home are less likely to catch COVID-19 than people who work in an industry where they must be personally engaged?

Is it shocking people who can work from home likely have a college degree?

I hope no one wasted a lot of time and money confirming the obvious.

It's not shocking but it's interesting to see in data and highlights areas of focus, some of which we already knew (ie packing plant settings, central valley farming). Sure it's maybe safe to assume a direct relationship but there's a reason you still do the research, and there were plenty of people earlier in this thread who were pretty vocal about assumptions/projections.

If you know a whole town is basically a 'factory town,' you can focus your mitigation efforts.

Not that it matters due to our collective inept response, but that's a different conversation.

 

[KINGS17]

It's not shocking but it's interesting to see in data and highlights areas of focus, some of which we already knew (ie packing plant settings, central valley farming). Sure it's maybe safe to assume a direct relationship but there's a reason you still do the research, and there were plenty of people earlier in this thread who were pretty vocal about assumptions/projections.

If you know a whole town is basically a 'factory town,' you can focus your mitigation efforts.

Not that it matters due to our collective inept response, but that's a different conversation.

I would have thought the breakouts at meat packing plants would have taught this lesson long ago. Academia always thinks there is a reason to waste time and money on research. We all know there is a correlation between the level of education a person has and their ability to isolate themselves in a work environment.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I would have thought the breakouts at meat packing plants would have taught this lesson long ago. Academia always thinks there is a reason to waste time and money on research. We all know there is a correlation between the level of education a person has and their ability to isolate themselves in a work environment.

That looks like it was about 5 minutes worth of google research of public-facing data.

And yes I thought we would have all learned this lesson long ago but what you assume is common sense is a battle a lot of people are clearly resisting so here we are.

If you can clearly and easily and quickly show a representative through data rather than assumptions that "hey low education communites appear to be at higher risk, it may correlate," then you can support measures targeted at those communities. Simple stuff.

 

[Lt Dan]

23 deaths over the weekend, only 4 today
Hospitalization continues to fall 341 on Saturday and 329 on Sunday
ICU down 1 case from yesterday
0.7% positive tests today

Rolling 7 day
1-Mon
4-Sun
19-Sat
9- Fri
29-Thu
7- Wed
15-Tues
average is an even 12

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

damn, i dropped out of college and live in san diego

i must deserve covid

some of yall need better things to do with your time

I hope you didn't take that as a slight. It wasn't meant to be. Finishing college or high school doesn't equate to being a better human being. I've known some people who have made rather glorious mistakes who have college degrees. Moreover, albeit antectdoal, one of the most influential people in my life didn't even get to high school and the other four did not go to college at all.

The information demonstrated that there is a rather strong correlation of entire communities and infection rate. From a health care standpoint, their access to healthcare is more likely to be limited as well as what they can afford (medications for diabetes, heart failure, COPD) that can have a detrimental effect on healthcare outcomes. It also maintains the correlation that there is a population out there who will be less swayed by science and more likely to call it a hoax or ignore recommendations that effect the community. But it does not mean one deserves something or should be punished. Anywho, I saw your comment and hope you didn't take offense. Best.

 

[Fishhead]

I would have thought the breakouts at meat packing plants would have taught this lesson long ago. Academia always thinks there is a reason to waste time and money on research. We all know there is a correlation between the level of education a person has and their ability to isolate themselves in a work environment.

I actually did all of that myself so I didn't spend any money I was looking at educational demographics for something completely unrelated, and there was Imperial at the top of the list. That's always been the highest case % county, so I popped open OC COVID and you could see it right away. It took longer to type the post than to actually figure out what was going on.

For sure higher educated people have a higher chance to work at home, but how long were restaurants closed for? And salons? And countless other businesses where they employ less skilled labor? They should have been just as isolated as those working from home. Yet those counties have been at the top since the beginning, and while some of what you say rings true, there are also a lot of workers who have degrees that are essential who should balance those numbers out at least a little.

But a lot of those counties are rural where farming is the biggest part of their economy, unlike the urban areas where the educated tend to congregate due to job presence. Less educated workers should have an advantage here as they tend to live in smaller communities with low densities, and they tend to be outdoor workers rather than indoor. Both of those should greatly reduce their chances of being infected by COVID. Yet they are at the top of the list. As I stated I would expect a correlation between higher and lower education levels based on opportunity and resources alone, but it was a stronger correlation than I expected.

I attribute some of this to the fact that it's easy for a place like OC to come down on businesses that are open, forcing them to close. It's much more difficult for local governments to monitor a farm out in the middle of nowhere where someone is forcing their workforce to be exposed to higher risk than they need to be. I'm not for governments forcing businesses to do anything, but in this case it was more of a help rather than a hindrance, at least from a community health standpoint.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I hope you didn't take that as a slight. It wasn't meant to be. Finishing college or high school doesn't equate to being a better human being. I've known some people who have made rather glorious mistakes who have college degrees. Moreover, albeit antectdoal, one of the most influential people in my life didn't even get to high school and the other four did not go to college at all.

The information demonstrated that there is a rather strong correlation of entire communities and infection rate. From a health care standpoint, their access to healthcare is more likely to be limited as well as what they can afford (medications for diabetes, heart failure, COPD) that can have a detrimental effect on healthcare outcomes. It also maintains the correlation that there is a population out there who will be less swayed by science and more likely to call it a hoax or ignore recommendations that effect the community. But it does not mean one deserves something or should be punished. Anywho, I saw your comment and hope you didn't take offense. Best.

One of my best friends completed PA school recently and it always struck me how much of the 'public health' efforts were simply the local clinics putting on workshops and other educational events in the name of prevention rather than recovery. So many of his volunteer hours were spent just educating people on stuff like basic first aid and hygiene. I think a lot of people take for granted what generational poverty and/or lack of education in the family can do to people, not because they're dumb, but because they don't have access to information and/or care. This is all I was referencing above too, and obviously not everyone falls into that category--but the lower the 'community' educational attainment and socioeconomic status, the less likely they are to have resources of any kind.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

One of my best friends completed PA school recently and it always struck me how much of the 'public health' efforts were simply the local clinics putting on workshops and other educational events in the name of prevention rather than recovery. So many of his volunteer hours were spent just educating people on stuff like basic first aid and hygiene. I think a lot of people take for granted what generational poverty and/or lack of education in the family can do to people, not because they're dumb, but because they don't have access to information and/or care. This is all I was referencing above too, and obviously not everyone falls into that category--but the lower the 'community' educational attainment and socioeconomic status, the less likely they are to have resources of any kind.

Yup, agreed. I always liked that we take blood pressures and let someone know when they need to get to the clinic so we can get ahead of having an adverse event. Just show up to a senior clinic and do free BPs every other week. Another aspect of public health is making sure that people have the ability to fulfill their prescriptions (especially diabetics) because they may be choosing between rent and their meds with dialysis down the road if they ruin their kidneys because of an elevated BP. Poverty, education, access, it's sad really when there is so much information out there. GoodRx website offers pretty hefty discounts to people who do not have access and they can tell you how much you should pay based on one type of med at most stores. One does what one can and hope they listen.

 

[Lt Dan]

Hospitalization falls again down from 317 yesterday
ICU down from 98 yesterday
4.5% positive tests today

The numbers keep going....


Rolling 7 day
8-Tues
1-Mon
4-Sun
19-Sat
9- Fri
29-Thu
7- Wed

an 8 replaced a 15 so the average drops to 11

 

[Lt Dan]

Ouch on those deaths

Hospitalization drops from 307 yesterday
ICU down from 93 yesterday
4.1% positive tests today


Rolling 7 day average
19- Wed
8-Tues
1-Mon
4-Sun
19-Sat
9- Fri
29-Thu

a 19 replaced a 7, so it rises to 12.71

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't even f***ing know anymore man

I lost faith in these numbers a long time ago anyway, it's just exasperating

 

[Lt Dan]

I don't even f***ing know anymore man

I lost faith in these numbers a long time ago anyway, it's just exasperating

that was why I loved @HeadInjury 's reports so much .

 

[Lt Dan]

Positives under 500!
Hospitalizations are down again. 295 yesterday
ICU cases down from 89 yesterday
2.7% positive tests today

Rolling 7 day average
11- Thu
19- Wed
8-Tues
1-Mon
4-Sun
19-Sat
9- Fri


a 11 replaced a 29, so it falls to 10.14

 

[Lt Dan]

A Frolov of deaths!

Other than the deaths, good news

Hospitalization down again from 272 yesterday
ICU down from 79 yesterday
4.14% positive tests today

Rolling 7 day average
24-Fri
11- Thu
19- Wed
8-Tues
1-Mon
4-Sun
19-Sat

24 replaced a 9, so a rise to 12.28

 

[Lt Dan]

Saturday

 

[Lt Dan]

Sunday

 

[Lt Dan]

Monday

 

[Lt Dan]

Tuesday

Looking good!



Comparing to Friday

ICU down from 77
Hospitalization down from 264
4.49% positive tests today

Rolling 7 day death count

3-Tues
0-Mon
2-Sun
9-Sat
24-Fri
11- Thu
19- Wed

The death average under 10! down to 9.714

 

[Fishhead]

On a serious downslope here in OC. I think we could qualify for tier 3 before we are allowed to move out of tier 1.

It goes to show you that people taking things seriously and wearing masks can be really effective if people stick with it. It took a while for folks to realize that even though they might not want to wear a face covering for whatever reason - political, discomfort, felt it infringed on rights, or whatever - it is the fastest way to get people back to work and get schools to reopen. I think it just took some time to sink in, we generally aren't used to things like this in the USA where you have to take precautions, whereas cultures where dense population is the norm are more used to it.

Florida is still a shitstorm. Dade county had 659 cases yesterday, and that county has more than 400K less people than OC. They have 160K total cases, over 3x what we have here. Broward county nextdoor has had almost 73K cases and they have under 2M population. They are improving, but those numbers are terrible and their case rates are over double what we have here. The state in general hasn't fared well, they have roughly 13% fewer cases and 13% fewer deaths - pretty consistent - than California. That's terrible when you consider that they have a little more than half of our population.

I've been skeptical of some of the mandates here, government overreach and what not. But at this point it's really hard to argue with the numbers. It's crystal clear which state mandated masks and which state never did. We did it here in California in mid-June. Just some data from the 10 worst case rate states:

Louisiana - mandated July 11
Florida - No mandate
Mississippi - mandated Aug. 4
Arizona - No mandate
Alabama - mandated July 16
Georgia - No mandate
South Carolina - No mandate
Tennessee - No mandate
Nevada - mandated June 24
Texas - mandated July 3

The only one that sticks out is Nevada, they mandated relatively early yet still had a chunk of cases. There are outliers here and there, but this trend is generally followed.

The 9 best states?

Vermont
Maine
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Oregon
Hawaii
Wyoming
Montana
Alaska

There is a pretty big gap between 9 and 10 so I cut it off there. What do they have in common? 8 of these are in the bottom 11 in population by state. There's only 1 exception, and that's Oregon at #27. It shows just how much of a control minimizing contact with others can be. Even Oregon, where all those crazies have been out in the streets raising hell, their numbers are low because people wear masks. Their mandate requires employees to wear masks and/or shields even when they are in private office spaces. They've expanded their mandate several times already, getting more stringent each time. It's probably why they only have about 20% of the case rate of Florida.

There are enough data by now to put two early theories to rest.

1. The virus doesn't deal well with heat. It may get killed by sunlight, but not quick enough as almost all of the worst case % states are in the South. Nevada is the most northern, and almost everyone lives in Vegas which is the same latitude as Tennessee. The best performing states are in the North.

2. Masks don't really do anything. The data completely screams the opposite, and anyone hanging on to this outdated notion is either purposely avoiding the truth or, to put it nicely, is not equipped enough to grasp it.