General COVID-19 Talk #3 NHL Qualifiers begin August 1 MOD Warning

[Lt Dan]

Never fight the urge to quote the prophet Chazz.

 

[Lt Dan]

man those deaths

Looking for some good things

Hospitalizations down from 399 yesterday
ICU down 1 from yesterday
6.3% positive tests today


Rolling 7 day

7 day average

29-Thu
7- Wed
15-Tues
0-Mon
1-Sun
14-Sat
26-Friday

a 29 is replacing a 23, so the average rises to 13.14

 

[Bandit]

View attachment 364372

man those deaths

Looking for some good things

Hospitalizations down from 399 yesterday
ICU down 1 from yesterday
6.3% positive tests today


Rolling 7 day

7 day average

29-Thu
7- Wed
15-Tues
0-Mon
1-Sun
14-Sat
26-Friday

a 29 is replacing a 23, so the average rises to 13.14

Remember when we thought an average of 8 was high? Ooof.

 

[tny760]

i feel like there must be holes in that data collection cause those are such massive statistical outliers

i know i keep drawing the comparison but in SD county we have similar population, similar rates albeit with lower overall numbers, but we've never seen those huge spikes in deaths. seems like we've been averaging 4-5 a day for a month now. obviously a little variation but still, i don't feel like there's much different going on that's changed by crossing camp pendleton so i have to assume data collection problems

 

[Lt Dan]

Remember when we thought an average of 8 was high? Ooof.

Indeed

I also did used to count the SNF deaths separately too.

Looking for a positive: Deaths are a lagging indicator and daily new cases are 1/3-1/2 of what they used to be

 

[Lt Dan]

i feel like there must be holes in that data collection cause those are such massive statistical outliers

i know i keep drawing the comparison but in SD county we have similar population, similar rates albeit with lower overall numbers, but we've never seen those huge spikes in deaths. seems like we've been averaging 4-5 a day for a month now. obviously a little variation but still, i don't feel like there's much different going on that's changed by crossing camp pendleton so i have to assume data collection problems

Definitely a possibility

SD could also just have it's shit together. SD is the second biggest county population wise and is doing much better than OC and the two IE counties , which are 3 ,4, and 5

These are yesterday's numbers

What they are doing here is pretty fascinating.
Kern is in the range of catching up with 1/4 of the population


but if we compare deaths vs cases
OC 1.94% death rate
SD 1.79% death rate

so very close there

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Neutralizing Antibodies Appear to Protect Humans From Coronavirus Infection

Some good news if you're going to get the vaccine or if you just prefer to get it naturally. Either way.

 

[Token]

Neutralizing Antibodies Appear to Protect Humans From Coronavirus Infection

Some good news if you're going to get the vaccine or if you just prefer to get it naturally. Either way.

Hahaha!

Now that was some self serving BS by a trade organization.

Boy, all that evidence.

So, why did the 15 other folks not get The Rona? What neutralizing antibodies did they have?

This is the kind of click-bait pseudo-science crap that feeds the whole disinformation machine of the Internet.

If you ever see an article that tries to look, smell, and feel legit and authoritative yet no one signs their name to it ... move along. It’s marketing bullshit.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Hahaha!

Now that was some self serving BS by a trade organization.

Boy, all that evidence.

So, why did the 15 other folks not get The Rona? What neutralizing antibodies did they have?

This is the kind of click-bait pseudo-science crap that feeds the whole disinformation machine of the Internet.

If you ever see an article that tries to look, smell, and feel legit and authoritative yet no one signs their name to it ... move along. It’s marketing bullshit.

It's a vetted journal article in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology with 11 qualified researchers signing their name to it. If you think it's pseudo-science, evidence-free crap, feel free to publicly critique their methodology so I can learn.

Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack rate

 

[Token]

It's a vetted journal article in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology with 11 qualified researchers signing their name to it. If you think it's pseudo-science, evidence-free crap, feel free to publicly critique their methodology so I can learn.

Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack rate

Dammit, that embedded hyperlink in the PR article on my phone ... yeah, missed that. My bad.

Still, the trade organization makes conclusions outside the scope of the published journal article. Granted, it ain’t as bad as my initial reaction would imply, the marketing part is still smelly-socks.

 

[Lt Dan]

A much lower death toll from yesterday
Hospitalization down from 372 yesterday
ICU under 100 for the first time in a LONG time




4.5% positives today

Rolling 7 day

9- Fri
29-Thu
7- Wed
15-Tues
0-Mon
1-Sun
14-Sat


a 9 is replacing a 26, so the average drops to 10.71

 

[Nickster]

Good, bad, and ugly of hydroxychloriquine: COVID-19 Treatment Analysis

 

[Lt Dan]

Reopening guildelines will be very different

https://www.ocbj.com/news/2020/aug/28/covid-19-oc-business-updates/

 

[tny760]

"Each county is required to stay in each tier for at least 21 days, and they must maintain the next tier’s metrics for two straight weeks in order to move out of their current tier, and enter into reopening phases."

???

the f*** is the point of tiers if you're going to arbitrarily lock counties into the tiers for potentially 5+ weeks? if the virus outright disappears tomorrow it would be months until anyone was allowed to fully reopen? obviously that's not going to happen but the mechanism is clearly not logical then

guess its better than the "yeah we'll get around to figuring it out" that they've been doing for weeks now...

 

[Fishhead]

We were opening September 8th to students, but probably not now

If it takes a few more weeks, whatever. Kind of ambivalent about it at this point. At least I'm in OC and not LA, that poor county is going to take forever to hit those kind of benchmarks.

 

[Bandit]

"Each county is required to stay in each tier for at least 21 days, and they must maintain the next tier’s metrics for two straight weeks in order to move out of their current tier, and enter into reopening phases."

???

the f*** is the point of tiers if you're going to arbitrarily lock counties into the tiers for potentially 5+ weeks? if the virus outright disappears tomorrow it would be months until anyone was allowed to fully reopen? obviously that's not going to happen but the mechanism is clearly not logical then

guess its better than the "yeah we'll get around to figuring it out" that they've been doing for weeks now...

The last attempt went from 0 to shitshow in a week, so of course the second attempt is going to be more cautious. What were you expecting?

 

[volcom92886]

"Each county is required to stay in each tier for at least 21 days, and they must maintain the next tier’s metrics for two straight weeks in order to move out of their current tier, and enter into reopening phases."

???

the f*** is the point of tiers if you're going to arbitrarily lock counties into the tiers for potentially 5+ weeks? if the virus outright disappears tomorrow it would be months until anyone was allowed to fully reopen? obviously that's not going to happen but the mechanism is clearly not logical then

guess its better than the "yeah we'll get around to figuring it out" that they've been doing for weeks now...

A huge issue that arises from treating each county individually is the influx of residents from one county to a neighboring county once their restrictions are dialed down. They really should group the larger metro areas as one area. OC looks as it will have its restrictions reduced prior to LA. One can assume an influx of LA county residents to OC once that happens, this will probably result in OC getting pushed back to the highest restriction level again.

 

[Token]

Pre-print review article on the Lancet on the reinfection case in Reno NV. - not yet peer reviewed or published.

Real interesting the methods they used for the genomic comparison of the two samples and the amount of forensics they did to ensure samples were valid.

Also of note: the patient had a mild case first followed by a more sever reinfection that required hospitalization and oxygen therapy.

Genomic Evidence for a Case of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 by RICHARD TILLETT, JOEL SEVINSKY, PAUL HARTLEY, HEATHER KERWIN, NATALIE CRAWFORD, ANDREW GORZALSKI, CHRISTOPHER LAVERDURE, SUBHASH VERMA, CYPRIAN ROSSETTO, MEGAN FARRELL, DAVID JACKSON, Mark Pandori, STEPHANIE VAN HOOSER :: SSRN

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Interesting in comparison with the Hong Kong reinfection, where the guy felt it the first time but was asymptomatic the 2nd time IIRC

 

[Token]

Interesting in comparison with the Hong Kong reinfection, where the guy felt it the first time but was asymptomatic the 2nd time IIRC

Yes. It raises the question on antibody amplification as a possibility.

 

[Fishhead]

We were opening September 8th to students, but probably not now

If it takes a few more weeks, whatever. Kind of ambivalent about it at this point. At least I'm in OC and not LA, that poor county is going to take forever to hit those kind of benchmarks.

A follow up on this. We are still allowed to open on September 8th as long as numbers continue to go down in OC, according to officials. I fully expect us to do so. I also fully expect there to be a mess a couple weeks later as the 7th is Labor Day.

 

[Fishhead]

A huge issue that arises from treating each county individually is the influx of residents from one county to a neighboring county once their restrictions are dialed down. They really should group the larger metro areas as one area. OC looks as it will have its restrictions reduced prior to LA. One can assume an influx of LA county residents to OC once that happens, this will probably result in OC getting pushed back to the highest restriction level again.

I don't expect many will come from LA to OC, it's always been the other way around. I can't think of a reason why they would, really, not a lot will be opening here except for schools, and students would essentially have to move to transfer right now. There aren't too many places in OC with a nightlife scene as it is, its more suburban.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't expect many will come from LA to OC, it's always been the other way around. I can't think of a reason why they would, really, not a lot will be opening here except for schools, and students would essentially have to move to transfer right now. There aren't too many places in OC with a nightlife scene as it is, its more suburban.

And Main Street HB basically hasn't changed a thing anyway so

They did add some outside dining to keep up appearances though

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Like @Fishhead I am more concerned about Labor Day than anything. It's the people who keep getting together and celebrating their ignorance for holidays that are going to be key drivers. Also, offices that sort of have restrictions in place but management doesn't enforce them that are going to be problematic. If they don't think it's serious, no one in the office will as well. I'd document and talk to HR if necessary. I am hopeful that flu will be less severe this year, just based on social distancing.

Keep in mind when people die, our ICU numbers go down too because then a bed opens up so that does manipulate the numbers some.

 

[Lt Dan]

Saturday




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