GDT: Game 38: Columbus at Dallas | 1/6 8:30PM EST

[Forepar]

4-2 good guys. GWG Joey Bologna.

Gotta shut that Seguin line down though, or at least minimize the damage.

Good call except for GWG!
But RyJo did score 2nd goal, so your channeling wasn't too far off.

 

[5thLiner]

Hmm... Did Bob get a new helmet? It's a red wall now instead of white...

Is this his 'away helmet'?

He got a new helmet I believe on Saturday, possibly Monday. Reminds me a lot of his one from last year.

 

[Samkow]

3.3%

And Ottawa, with 1 point point in 1 more game, has a 19.9% chance. Philly, with 2 less points in 2 more games, has a 3.6% chance.

When will the SportsClubStats formula respect Columbus?

 

[ca5150]

I like how we continue to win with mirrors. But if we are going to be legit playoff contenders, the Calvert-Dubie-Cam line has to step up. Frankly none of them is playing at the level they played at last season. Dubie is still probably trying to regain his touch. And both Matt and Cam have had injuries. But still, we have got to get that line going.

Have you watched the last 3-4 games? Dubi had 2 goals just a game ago and Calvert has played extremely well killing penalties and being aggressive on the forecheck, it's the best I've seen him play since before the big injury last year, he really has his wheels back and had a beauty goal against Boston. Dubi has 2 goals and 7 assists in 12 games and is still playing his way into shape looking better each game.

Now if you want to talk about Atkinson, I would agree, even before the injury, his play has dropped off from a hot start. He needs to work harder in the corners and come through the neutral zone with more speed like he did his first season.

But Dubi and Calvert have played really well imo.

 

[Nordique]

Somebody had to do something with Cole taking a run at Toots and cross-checking (Collins?) in the face, and Boll was the one to do it.

I know he's not popular around NWA or on these boards, but he's always been one of my favorites. Injuries the last two or three years and fighting out his weight class season after season have clearly hurt, but his skating and work along the boards are so much better now compared to when he was 26. What do people want, the kid who would just go full speed and maybe make contact on the checking attempt?

He's on pace for his most fighting majors since 11-12, even though fighting seems to be on the way out. (I don't like staged fights but I think even the staged bouts keep other teams honest. Nash should send him a Christmas and birthday present every year.) He'll get his two or three goals and add a few assists. He seems to be a good influence on the younger guys.

Not trying to marry him, and it's his job, but I would hate to bust tail and contribute the little things only to know that the majority of the fan base thinks I'm overpaid and have to go. (I just went to capgeek and learned the site has ceased operations, but I think he makes 1.7 mil and I'm good with that for another year or two.)

Very pleased with the efforts after that goat---- in the desert. Now on to Toronto, where the team that holds the final playoff spot just fired Randy Carlyle. Glad I'm not a Leafs fan. Must be like rooting for the Cubbies or the Tribe.

Someone did do something. Brad Watson put Cole away for 2 minutes and put one of the most dangerous PP's in the league on the ice.

One of the greatest myths in hockey..........they put a big hit on one of your players, you have to answer by dropping the gloves with another player on the next shift. Jared Boll didn't do anything but try to justify his salary. Did that fight light a fire on the bench? Absolutely not, we actually lost control of the game from that point on.

Babcock figured this out years ago. You don't carry a fighter when forward depth is so critical. We carry Boll for 1.7 per, they got Abdelkader for 1.8 Which guy does more for their team? Boll makes 50% more than Calvert, again who brings more the to the ice?

We let MacKenzie go to the FLA for 400k less than we pay Boll............come on man.

 

[EDM]

I agree Dubie is getting into shape. I said so. Disagree about Calvert offensively. One goal does not a recovery make.

 

[Mayor Bee]

And Ottawa, with 1 point point in 1 more game, has a 19.9% chance. Philly, with 2 less points in 2 more games, has a 3.6% chance.

When will the SportsClubStats formula respect Columbus?

Goal differential is an important component; I use it myself for tracking potential regression to average. As of today, Columbus is at a -21, Philly -13, and Ottawa -4.

None of us knows the emphasis that goal differential has in the millions of simulations that that website uses, but it's definitely a component.

 

[Fro]

beautiful (via @Red ditCBJ)

https://giant.gfycat.com/GrouchyHeavyAustraliankelpie.webm

https://giant.gfycat.com/ImprobableCommonAlaskanmalamute.webm

 

[jacketsnc33]

Nice. Could we get one of those gifs on the Wennberg/Letestu goal?

 

[ca5150]

I agree Dubie is getting into shape. I said so. Disagree about Calvert offensively. One goal does not a recovery make.

Calvert brings a lot more than just goals.

 

[Fro]

Nice. Could we get one of those gifs on the Wennberg/Letestu goal?

https://gfycat.com/ImportantDependentGelada

 

[Fro]

also here are the....

Wiz: https://gfycat.com/CandidTightDutchsmoushond
and
Joey: https://gfycat.com/WideWideCapeghostfrog

 

[jacketsnc33]

Awesome. Thanks!

 

[EspenK]

https://gfycat.com/ImportantDependentGelada

I didn't realize Wennberg put that pass under the defenders stick. Assuming that is what he meant to do that was great.

Otherwise he should have shot.

 

[Forepar]

Goal differential is an important component; I use it myself for tracking potential regression to average. As of today, Columbus is at a -21, Philly -13, and Ottawa -4.

None of us knows the emphasis that goal differential has in the millions of simulations that that website uses, but it's definitely a component.

Agree MB. If you switch the SportsClub's assumption to 50/50 shot of winning games (meaning the computer program figuratively flips a coin for each game, the CBJ's odds of making playoffs are 23% as of today, as opposed to 3% using the weighted assumption. The "weighted" assumption still is an algorithim of millions of "coinflips" as the 50/50 method, but the coin is weighted differently than 50/50, using 3 major factors as I understand it: 1) "goal delta" (meaning goal differential); 2), the relative records of the opponents; and 3) a 4% boost for the home team likely winning (supposedly the NHL league-wide average). The site also builds in that for hockey, each game is given a 22% chance of going into OT (based on 22 percent of games going into OT in 2007-2008).

The site's creator admits that the site does not factor in any trends, trades or injuries (past or current). For example, his notes state that if a team was starting to rebound after a bout of injuries (e.g. CBJ), then a user/fan would be wise to estimate "X extra points in the second half of the season, and looking at what that number of points then shows" as the % likelihood of getting in.
In other words if we don't think CBJ is a .500 team the rest of the year (and not a -21 goal differential team), then we can project what we think the record will be based on trends.

For example, if CBJ finish remainder of season at 24-14-6 (93 points), the site projects a 29% likelihood of making the playoffs. 24-14-6 is not unreasonable based on recent results - though current 12-2-1 pace is not sustainable for entire season. I would think 29% chance of getting in would actually be more like 35%, because this method doesn't take into account that some of the teams battling with CBJ for those last spots will get less points than projected if CBJ gets 93 points, because CBJ will have won some head-to-head games against those competing teams that are currently projected to beat CBJ more often than not in the algorithm formula (e.g. Wash, Tor, NYR, Bos, etc.). I note that the likelihood of getting in jumps to mid 40% if CBJ gets just one more point (94 instead of 93). The 7 and 8 spots will be that tight - they almost always are.

In other words, the site is almost pure math/statistics, with very few other variables. But its a starting point...and it creates fun/angst among all us hockey fans.

In other words, every point is CRITICAL!
LOL

 

[Nordique]

I like what they are doing at SportsClub, but its just one model, with one set of variables.

I suspect those variables fail to represent team health.

We had a terrible November, and we were playing backup goalies, and skating without 3 of our 4 centers. Our record in November is not predictive of how we'll play the second half of the season (assuming we remain relatively healthy). I'd like to think we are more likely to finish with a record closer to our December 10-1-1, assuming again that we are roughly on par health wise or better.

The correlation between "team health" and winning % is huge this season, drop it in a model and I bet it comes out very predictive as well. I have no problem saying this team, healthy, can play at at a 2-1-0 pace the rest of the season. Now if only we could predict team health.

 

[EspenK]

Bottom line is we need to get to 93 points or thereabouts for the last wild card. Forget the odds. Can we finish 24-14-6 while some other team(s) folds? That doesn't seem undoable but it will be tough. I just hope we don't come up a point or two short. Unless we then win the lottery which would bring us back to my pre-season thread.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Agree MB. If you switch the SportsClub's assumption to 50/50 shot of winning games (meaning the computer program figuratively flips a coin for each game, the CBJ's odds of making playoffs are 23% as of today, as opposed to 3% using the weighted assumption. The "weighted" assumption still is an algorithim of millions of "coinflips" as the 50/50 method, but the coin is weighted differently than 50/50, using 3 major factors as I understand it: 1) "goal delta" (meaning goal differential); 2), the relative records of the opponents; and 3) a 4% boost for the home team likely winning (supposedly the NHL league-wide average). The site also builds in that for hockey, each game is given a 22% chance of going into OT (based on 22 percent of games going into OT in 2007-2008).

The site's creator admits that the site does not factor in any trends, trades or injuries (past or current). For example, his notes state that if a team was starting to rebound after a bout of injuries (e.g. CBJ), then a user/fan would be wise to estimate "X extra points in the second half of the season, and looking at what that number of points then shows" as the % likelihood of getting in.
In other words if we don't think CBJ is a .500 team the rest of the year (and not a -21 goal differential team), then we can project what we think the record will be based on trends.

For example, if CBJ finish remainder of season at 24-14-6 (93 points), the site projects a 29% likelihood of making the playoffs. 24-14-6 is not unreasonable based on recent results - though current 12-2-1 pace is not sustainable for entire season. I would think 29% chance of getting in would actually be more like 35%, because this method doesn't take into account that some of the teams battling with CBJ for those last spots will get less points than projected if CBJ gets 93 points, because CBJ will have won some head-to-head games against those competing teams that are currently projected to beat CBJ more often than not in the algorithm formula (e.g. Wash, Tor, NYR, Bos, etc.). I note that the likelihood of getting in jumps to mid 40% if CBJ gets just one more point (94 instead of 93). The 7 and 8 spots will be that tight - they almost always are.

In other words, the site is almost pure math/statistics, with very few other variables. But its a starting point...and it creates fun/angst among all us hockey fans.

In other words, every point is CRITICAL!
LOL

Of course, none of this matters when I have the magic number thread and 40% of the responses are "you're wrong, X team has already clinched", which of course comes from someone perusing that website.

 

[Forepar]

Would be nice to contribute to other teams folding, starting with Toronto on Friday, followed by the many head-to-head games left with Wash, NYR and NYI, etc...

I realize NYI would be a big stretch (not for CBJ to beat, but for NYI to come all the way back in standings), but I am struggling to believe that they are as good as point total to date indicates!

 

[Forepar]

Of course, none of this matters when I have the magic number thread and 40% of the responses are "you're wrong, X team has already clinched", which of course comes from someone perusing that website.

Yes, I laughed at end of '13 and '14 seasons...the site even admits that when it says "In" or "OUT" it is NOT a mathematical clinch but based on the millions of similations. Most users of that site don't read the "fine" print.

 

[Nordique]

Bottom line is we need to get to 93 points or thereabouts for the last wild card. Forget the odds. Can we finish 24-14-6 while some other team(s) folds? That doesn't seem undoable but it will be tough. I just hope we don't come up a point or two short. Unless we then win the lottery which would bring us back to my pre-season thread.

93 pts seems about right. We can finish 24-14-6 as you say, and if we win key games, vs the other bubble teams, the playoffs are very attainable. And if we can't beat the other bubble teams (TOR, BOS, FLA, OTT, NYR, WSH), then we have no business expecting a post season. We have exactly 10 games vs the those teams left on the schedule.

3 vs NYR
2 vs TOR
2 vs WSH
1 vs FLA
1 vs OTT
1 vs BOS

 

[db2011]

I appreciate the win and the closing of the playoff gap but I think we won that game last night because of who was in goal. Both Bob and Lindback.

If the Jackets could figure out how to attack consistently like the Stars do they would be a very good team. There were occasional flashes last night but a lot of the time was same old throw it in bang around lose the puck.

One other observation- I thought the Stars looked like an Eastern team and the Jackets a Western.

You been drinking Robert's hooch? Bob was good for us but you're discrediting our offense by laying the loss completely Lindback. Both Joey's and Letestu's goals were top-notch. And you're comparing us unfavorably to a team we just beat in their own barn.

As for goal differential, you've gotta consider context. This win streak is more representative of this team than those prolonged slumps. These guys have made a believer out of me, I'm predicting playoffs this season

 

[DarkandStormy]

Who do we root for tonight - Washington or Toronto? Regulation, obviously.

 

[Fro]

Toronto...we have 2 games in hand and play them...washington is further ahead...

 

[EspenK]

You been drinking Robert's hooch? Bob was good for us but you're discrediting our offense by laying the loss completely Lindback. Both Joey's and Letestu's goals were top-notch. And you're comparing us unfavorably to a team we just beat in their own barn.

As for goal differential, you've gotta consider context. This win streak is more representative of this team than those prolonged slumps. These guys have made a believer out of me, I'm predicting playoffs this season

I agree that Joey's goal and Letestu's were great. That's two. I think its better than 50/50 Lehtonen doesn't let in the two power play goals, especially Cotton's. 2 doesn't get us the win in regulation if everything else goes the same.

Our 5v5 offense just isn't very good to this point. Maybe it gets better maybe it doesn't.

And no I'm not on the hooch but I'm also not sitting on (insert optimistic Jacket fan's name here)'s helium pump.