I'm not really sure how to answer that question - You trade players for other players, not for odds.
There isn't a single player in the world whose addition would guarantee a Stanley Cup victory in any given year. Considering Liljegren's abilities, age, potential, contract status, and position, I wouldn't give him up for any player that wasn't going to be here long-term.
This is a very passive stance. Vegas already has us as no.1 favorites for the cup. When your odds are that high and you can get Panarin without touching your core, you make that trade. Any GM that wants a championship would.
Guys like Panarin don't become available. This off season is one big pile of luck for NHL teams. JT would never sniff UFA and come to his hometown team if he was in a better place than Long Island and Panarin is already locked up long term if he's any place other than Columbus or equivalent.
With that said, Liljegren + 1st can't get you Panarin for a whole season on a regular day, which makes it even more weird people aren't willing to let Lil go for Panarin. The cost in August/September will be at a premium for Panarin because a team get's him for a whole season. Don't undervalue the impact one year of a Superstar has on a team. Panarin can easily make a bubble team a playoff team. This guy will be our equivalent to Kuznetsov impact wise with the ability to out point Kuznetsov. Some people rank him higher than Kuznetsov and more into Kucherov level depending which article you read.
If Clb GM gives the green light on Lil + 1st, you make the trade. That top 9 will be historic and the odds of seeing a top 9 like that for any team ever again is close to 0 in a salary cap era.
If we don't win the cup then we don't win the cup. That's how the NHL is. You can have the best team ever seen but it doesn't guarantee a cup, which is why you never turn down the chance to make the team even better if you can survive the cost. Future is still bright if we lose Liljegren.