Free Agency and Trade Thread - Playoff Edition

[HoweHullOrr]

It gets included on CapFriendly.

I know it does on CapFriendly normally, but the part where this info is normally displayed was cut off, hence I thought I'd double check. I've probably looked at CapFriendly 15 - 20 times in the last month. With some of the posts I see here, I wonder who else is digesting these numbers though.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Yep, sorry forgot to show that:View attachment 220421

and didn't put much effort into the returns for trades or the destination

OK thanks.

If you noticed my post (#569), there's a lot of current roster players that will need to exit. There won't be a lot of money next year to address additions to bolster the middle of our lineup.

 

[Faltorvo]

Call me a cynic, but when forecasting our roster, I'm penciling marner in at 10.5 to account for the dubas tax.

oh,,,i hear you,,,i think dubas will get crushed once again.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

4-5.5M range.

I would be okay with 4.5M x4 years. More then a guy like Beleskey got....I don't want to go 5M+ and 5+ years because it always backfires with those types.

I had it at 4x4, so not too far off. I think 4.5 mill is as far as you can stretch a higher end, 40 point, top 9 player without it being an albatross. I'd start in the high 3's (i.e. 3.75) on a 4 year deal and cut it off at 4.5 mill.

Obviously only happens if the Leafs trade Marleau, but there are enough scenarios where the Leafs can make the money work with Marleau still in the picture next year. Just means someone like Kadri is on the way out, but I have a feeling that may be happening regardless at this point (with the number of RW's who could be entering the picture soon, and because long term, Nylander should still be a center).

 

[WTFMAN99]

I had it at 4x4, so not too far off. I think 4.5 mill is as far as you can stretch a higher end, 40 point, top 9 player without it being an albatross. I'd start in the high 3's (i.e. 3.75) on a 4 year deal and cut it off at 4.5 mill.

Obviously only happens if the Leafs trade Marleau, but there are enough scenarios where the Leafs can make the money work with Marleau still in the picture next year. Just means someone like Kadri is on the way out, but I have a feeling that may be happening regardless at this point (with the number of RW's who could be entering the picture soon, and because long term, Nylander should still be a center).

Ferland at LW would be a great add for us. Gives us another guy that can cycle, go to the front of the net, check, dig out pucks etc.

 

[Leafin]

We need to find our own Ferland for cheap and not pay UFA salary to the actual Ferland. These guys get overpaid every offseason.

There are guys out there that can provide what he does for cheap. We need Dubas to identify a trade target or a UFA that we can get for cheap.

 

[jaric1862]

Ideally My wish list/offseason would be to move one of our RW’s go for a top 4 RHD, an upgrade at 4th line center (someone who can play on the 3rd like in a pinch) and an upgrade at our backup position (even if it’s minor, we can’t have Sparks again, Freddy needs more rest)

 

[WTFMAN99]

We need to find our own Ferland for cheap and not pay UFA salary to the actual Ferland. These guys get overpaid every offseason.

There are guys out there that can provide what he does for cheap. We need Dubas to identify a trade target or a UFA that we can get for cheap.

What is the target? The only one I can realistically see is if the Leafs gamble on a guy like Nick Ritchie.

Ferland is UFA, put up a 40 pt season, hits like a truck. He's a solid piece.

Josh Anderson "boomed" and isn't available in trade anymore at this point.

 

[TML Dynasty]

OK thanks.

If you noticed my post (#569), there's a lot of current roster players that will need to exit. There won't be a lot of money next year to address additions to bolster the middle of our lineup.

Top 3 lines still look deadly. 4th could be questionable for sure and could use a bolster.
RHD scares me a little and bottom pairing isn't great...granted.
Goalies look fine.

Hope they can upgrade on my selections by getting creative. Marleau is a slight possibility. I guess Kadri too

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Ferland at LW would be a great add for us. Gives us another guy that can cycle, go to the front of the net, check, dig out pucks etc.

Which is why we'd have interest in him in the first place. However, typically guys like that are not huge earners... At that point, why not keep Kadri for 4.5 mill?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Which is why we'd have interest in him in the first place. However, typically guys like that are not huge earners... At that point, why not keep Kadri for 4.5 mill?

Well, you already know of my interest in a guy like Faksa, reduce cost at 3C, he pks and does the match up thing and is fantastic at not getting suspended. Moving out other pieces like Marleau and Brown lets us bring in a winger that plays a playoff style game and maybe use the extra $$ towards a defenseman.

We can't lose Kadri and not replace him though, we flat out don't have the centre depth to do it.

 

[Legion34]

Not sure how Marleau just conveniently disappears. We can hope I suppose.

Cap is projected at $83 m, not $85.

We will have $13.3 m of available cap space this summer, so using your scenario, we are already over cap by signing Marner, Kap & AJ.

Even though we thought we'd have no cap problems 1.5 - 2 years ago, we find ourselves in this cap predicament. If we have Dubas and Shanny, what's changed this time versus the last time?

Guess I can copy a previous post as the real numbers don't seem to reflected in peoples thinking yet.

Important relevant stats from CapFriendly re: Leafs cap 2019-20 cap situation

Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Projected cap space: $4.5 m
Cap increase: $3.5 m
Horton LTIR: $5.3 m
TOTAL $13.3 m

RFA & UFA are not signed and hence salaries are not included in the total team cap.

RFA: Marner, Kapanen, Ozhiganov, Johnsson
UFA: Gardiner, Hainsey, Hutchinson, Marincin, Ennis

If we sign Marner at $10 m AAV and Hainsey (or a Hainsey level defenseman replacement), the remaining cap space is gone. Players identified in blue font would be gone in this "scenario/example".

Conclusion - If we want to add additional players, more player cuts (in addition to those in blue font) will be needed. I guess that's why there is so many Nylander or Kadri (or both) trade proposal trades these days.

I was getting to do the "if marleau stays" scenario but got distracted.

1.) the reason I suggested an 85 million dollar cap is because Bob McKenzie speculated it. In fact he went on national TV and made a leaf projection using an 85 million hit... Not 83. In my mind, he generally tends to be right, so I am leaning to that being the number. but could be 83.

2.) There are lots of signs that marleau goes. Look at last night. Rielly specifically came out and said..... We want him back next year and we dont care what anyone else thinks. You did the math yourself. How would that even be possible? Does his best friend Rielly not know what the cap looks like with marleau in it? Dubas and Babcock were the same...... They mention it multiple times. We wont know til July 2 but there are lots of signs.....

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I was getting to do the "if marleau stays" scenario but got distracted.

1.) the reason I suggested an 85 million dollar cap is because Bob McKenzie speculated it. In fact he went on national TV and made a leaf projection using an 85 million hit... Not 83. In my mind, he generally tends to be right, so I am leaning to that being the number. but could be 83.

2.) There are lots of signs that marleau goes. Look at last night. Rielly specifically came out and said..... We want him back next year and we dont care what anyone else thinks. You did the math yourself. How would that even be possible? Does his best friend Rielly not know what the cap looks like with marleau in it? Dubas and Babcock were the same...... They mention it multiple times. We wont know til July 2 but there are lots of signs.....

Rielly is not making management decisions, and he's smart enough to know that just because the team wants him back, does not mean he will be back. It was a way of protecting Gardiner from criticism for another one of his countless bad games which also happens to be the second year in a row it came during the most important game of the year. He's just being a good teammate to a really close friend.

Gardiner is done here. There is no justification behind bringing him back anymore. He's a 3rd pairing guy for us now, and even then, he still found a way to be a liability. We have other guys coming in, and we need to find better quality for our money than we are getting out of Gardiner. That does not mean Marleau won't be traded, but it's 100% in Marleau's court. He's not getting dealt unless he wants to get dealt, and he won't want to get dealt unless he's retiring or going to San Jose.

 

[BlueForever75]

Marleau will come up with an injury announcement and be jettisoned to Robidas Island. It will state that he hurt his back in the 7th game of the playoffs. He will still get paid, be part of the Leafs organization still in some compacity but his contract can and will be buried. Him retiring does nothing for the Leafs as they still will have to deal his cap hit. He will mysteriously be injured.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Well, you already know of my interest in a guy like Faksa, reduce cost at 3C, he pks and does the match up thing and is fantastic at not getting suspended. Moving out other pieces like Marleau and Brown lets us bring in a winger that plays a playoff style game and maybe use the extra $$ towards a defenseman.

We can't lose Kadri and not replace him though, we flat out don't have the centre depth to do it.

Why can't Nylander replace Kadri? That's what I see happening. Gives us 3 1C quality players down the middle, and the Leafs have the money to pay for some quality wingers in the top 9 to go with Marner, Hyman, Johnsson and Kapanen (i.e. Ferland and Mikheyev) if Marleau is dealt. If Marleau is not dealt, then he is another top 9 winger with probably someone like Moore or Mikheyev as the other.

 

[BlueForever75]

Why can't Nylander replace Kadri? That's what I see happening. Gives us 3 1C quality players down the middle, and the Leafs have the money to pay for some quality wingers in the top 9 to go with Marner, Hyman, Johnsson and Kapanen (i.e. Ferland and Mikheyev) if Marleau is dealt. If Marleau is not dealt, then he is another top 9 winger with probably someone like Moore or Mikheyev as the other.

Why would you need to trade Kadri or Nylander? Why not just focus on deal parts you don't need like Brown, Zaitsev and trying to off load Marleau salary some how. I would also attempt to deal Johnsson and pay Kapanen. I will explain.

By trading Brown, Zaitsev and Marleau you free up another 12-13 million in cap space

You replace Brown minutes with Moore. Same player.

Attach Johnsson to Marleau to entice teams, to entice contenders.

Johnsson can be replaced by Bracco. Same type of player.

Trade Zaitsev for picks. Without retaining anything.

Use the extra 12-13 million to sign a Ferland, resign Hainsey to a Orpik type contract.

Ferland-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Bracco-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Petan

Reilly-Trade or UFA
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Hainsey

Somehow we need to extract a Dman to play with Reilly. I don't know how. But its a definite.

 

[Jozay]

Love Naz, but its a fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me situation with him. I've lost all my trust in him.

Trade him for a top 4 rhd or a 3c. Just move on the from the guy.

 

[Albert Iafrate]

My ideal candidate for size and skill in free agency is Anders Lee. He's been clutch so far in the playoffs. Dude would be a beast beside Tavares (who he's had crazy success playing beside on the island) and Marner. Hyman could move back up to the first line beside Matthews, with Nylander on his right.

Lee wouldn't cost an insane amount, and would provide a net front presence that would allow Tavares to play a bit more away from the net.

On defense, if I had a wish it would be a right shot defender that had a slap shot. Trouba fits the bill, but he comes with some uncertainty. I think the ideal fit would be Dante Fabbro from Nashville. Not sure what it would take to get him, but I would offer any combination of Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, Bracco, Brown. If they want Nylander, have at'er. No issue moving Willy for this guy. He's going to be a stud.

 

[Legion34]

Rielly is not making management decisions, and he's smart enough to know that just because the team wants him back, does not mean he will be back. It was a way of protecting Gardiner from criticism for another one of his countless bad games which also happens to be the second year in a row it came during the most important game of the year. He's just being a good teammate to a really close friend.

Gardiner is done here. There is no justification behind bringing him back anymore. He's a 3rd pairing guy for us now, and even then, he still found a way to be a liability. We have other guys coming in, and we need to find better quality for our money than we are getting out of Gardiner. That does not mean Marleau won't be traded, but it's 100% in Marleau's court. He's not getting dealt unless he wants to get dealt, and he won't want to get dealt unless he's retiring or going to San Jose.

The point is NOT whether Gardiner should or will be back. This is about the money. The point is that they are talking like its even a possibility. How would it be possible even remotely with marleau on the cap? Babcock has repeatedly mentioned getting him back... If we follow the timeline

1.) Lou signed marleau AFTER the kids had all broken out and there were already cries that they were going to cost a ton..... They signed him to a front loaded contract and specifically mentioned how it fit in now and through the years.

2.) Tavares met with multiple teams..... He mentioned that they went through the cap and how it will all fit throughout the years. Did his agent not know? They didn't see it coming?

3.) Babcock has mentioned multiple times throughout the year that they plan to sign gardiner AFTER Tavares......
4.) They trade for Muzzin. Dubas and Gards Agent talk contracts AFTER muzzin.

Now after the playoffs, going through the year, knowing the cap reality, Rielly talks about how they want him back next year. He was unprompted. He went out of his way to say it. They are best friends. You dont think Rielly knows that they are talking?

Whether or not he should or will re-sign, the point is, that with Marleau, there is no money for it to be remotely possible.

I think Marleau is gone.... I think Jake is up in the air.

If he is smart he leaves

 

[Rielly4]

My ideal candidate for size and skill in free agency is Anders Lee. He's been clutch so far in the playoffs. Dude would be a beast beside Tavares (who he's had crazy success playing beside on the island) and Marner. Hyman could move back up to the first line beside Matthews, with Nylander on his right.

Lee wouldn't cost an insane amount, and would provide a net front presence that would allow Tavares to play a bit more away from the net.

On defense, if I had a wish it would be a right shot defender that had a slap shot. Trouba fits the bill, but he comes with some uncertainty. I think the ideal fit would be Dante Fabbro from Nashville. Not sure what it would take to get him, but I would offer any combination of Kadri, Johnsson, Kapanen, Bracco, Brown. If they want Nylander, have at'er. No issue moving Willy for this guy. He's going to be a stud.

Lee will get 7 mil AAV. No way we could afford him.

 

[horner]

What is the target? The only one I can realistically see is if the Leafs gamble on a guy like Nick Ritchie.

Ferland is UFA, put up a 40 pt season, hits like a truck. He's a solid piece.

Josh Anderson "boomed" and isn't available in trade anymore at this point.

Would love one of these guys to play with Moore
Really excited about his future

Comtois from the Ducks ( will cost us to get him)
Max Jones from Ducks
Brendan Lemieux

 

[Legion34]

Marleau stays (I think he's gone) AND its an 83 million cap. I made this fit with 440 k to spare

1.) Sign marner for 10 mill (thats probably low).
2.) Johnson for 2 x 2.5
3.) Call up Bracco.

Then your lineup for 82.5 million.

Hyman Tavares Marner
Johnny Mattthews Nylander
Marleau Kadri Bracco
Petan Goat Moore

Muzzin Zaitsev
Rielly Dermott
Rosen Holl

Goalies.

There is no reserve and 82.5 million

I don't see how the leafs let that happen. I don't see how they possibly would even be thinking of talking to gardiner. This is our worst case scenario, Then we take a step back next year and have your money to get a D the following year. We may have a step back year. But I think this is very unlikely. The most likely scenario would be that marleau goes.

Second would be trying to cut the fat on Z, Kadri or Nylander. But it seems unlikely

 

[Legion34]

Lee will get 7 mil AAV. No way we could afford him.

Yep. The best hope would be if Simmonds could sign for 1 million and somehow have a resurgence

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Why would you need to trade Kadri or Nylander? Why not just focus on deal parts you don't need like Brown, Zaitsev and trying to off load Marleau salary some how. I would also attempt to deal Johnsson and pay Kapanen. I will explain.

By trading Brown, Zaitsev and Marleau you free up another 12-13 million in cap space

You replace Brown minutes with Moore. Same player.

Attach Johnsson to Marleau to entice teams, to entice contenders.

Johnsson can be replaced by Bracco. Same type of player.

Trade Zaitsev for picks. Without retaining anything.

Use the extra 12-13 million to sign a Ferland, resign Hainsey to a Orpik type contract.

Ferland-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Bracco-Kadri-Kapanen
Moore-Gauthier-Petan

Reilly-Trade or UFA
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Hainsey

Somehow we need to extract a Dman to play with Reilly. I don't know how. But its a definite.

How much are you paying Marner and Kapanen? Hainsey is getting more than Orpik did. What are you trading to get that defenseman, if not Kadri or Nylander? How much is that UFA going to cost? At least as much as Zaitsev is you want anyone top 4 quality (i.e. Myers).

Trading Nylander or Kadri is as much about getting a top 4 RD as anything else (assuming you can trade Marleau; otherwise it becomes a necessary cap thing).

The best I've been able to work it without trading those two is this lineup:
Ferland-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Moore-Kadri-Kapanen
Aaltonen-Gauthier-Mikheyev
Petan

(Obviously Aaltonen/Mikheyev could be someone like Petan and Bracco or another Marlie/cheap UFA; they all cost under 1 mill so it won't break the bank)

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Rosen-Hainsey
Borgman-Holl

Andersen-Sparks

You would pay a combined ~19 mill for Marner (~10 mill), Ferland (~4 mill), Hainsey (~2 mill) and Kapanen (~3 mill). That covers most of your agenda, but it does not replace Zaitsev, which you said was a "definite".

 

[Field of Dreams]

Trading Kadri is insanity. He is cheap, skilled, and actually plays with heart. SHAME on kadri for thinking the same rules that apply to the Bruins apply to the leafs as well