GDT: Free Agency 2021

tenken00

Oh it's going down in Chinatown
Jan 29, 2010
9,906
10,147
Caps HFBoard: "We are too old and need a inject of youth to be better. We will be worse next year."

Caps: Replace some old players with kids

Caps HFBoard: "These kids are unproven and not seasoned enough. We will be worse next year."

I think that was mostly me in the first part lol..

But we are all Caps fans here. Every single one of us loves the Caps. Every single one.

We all just have uhh... differing opinions on the direction the team should go and how to get to that direction. And since we love the team so much, we're all pretty adamant that it should go that way.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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People's impatience in that regard just blows me away, though.

It's pretty obviously clear to anyone who is retaining the last two years in their brain at one time that GMBM had one plan, was shown the flat cap, and has done a pretty good job of pivoting off of his structure without steering into any major pitfalls. There are people in here reeling like this was his plan all along and not what you have to do to adjust to the unknown, and it's just insane. While other teams are out there making huge downgrade trades and opening up roster holes for seemingly no reason, bringing back mostly the same team is not necessarily a loss.

It's like... this is one of those "we have food at home" years, and that's fine. Kids wanted McDonalds but having the home to go back to is kind of better. This was a pay Ovechkin in the flat cap year, and people need to remember that it didn't have to be a foregone conclusion.... I would rather "bring back the same team minus Dillon" than bring back a different team minus Ovechkin. I'm not saying it had to be one or the other but if there's a time to play it safe this was pretty much it, and I'm not going to be too upset over it.

This is kinda missing my point, or perhaps addressing other poster's concerns rather than what I'm saying. I'm not here to wring hands about his previous deals (although there's certainly plenty to be written about there on both micro and macro levels). This is about going forwards, and the vision for the team. The flat cap is a bum deal, sure. GMBM did a good job maintaining through the flat cap, keeping the roster as intact as possible. But some of us have a very different vision for the team goign forwards than just maintaining the roster. If the intent is to try and win another Cup and not just start the countdown to 894, there are those of us who felt that more aggression in this off-season was needed. Running back the same team that has been spanked in the previous two playoffs is unlikely to result in significantly better playoff outcomes. I don't think any of this entails losing Ovechkin.

To me, the time to play it safe is when your team is on the ascent. When you're stocked with relatively young players, and you're coming close in the playoffs. When you're looking competitive in your playoff series and you can rationally evaluate the series and say "yeah, if we had these one or two bounces different we're moving on." That's when you play it safe and try for better luck in the next post-season, perhaps with some depth tweaks and TDL additions.

When your team is on the descent, it's aging and not looking competitive against other top teams, that's when playing it safe is not the route to take. That's when more substantial action is needed to revamp how the team plays, and to inject some new life into the team. That's when more drastic measures are required if you want a different outcome.


I think the structure of the team is just fine and the only way it changes significantly is by moving people that hurt. When you can't move Ovechkin, Backstrom, probably Oshie, etc. you don't leave a lot of room for overhaul, so really... you work with their support staff, you tinker, you try to develop, and you wait for them to leave on their own terms.
Yes, restructuring the team would take moving out some core pieces. Some guys that "hurt." That's EXACTLY why people were proposing a trade around John Carlson. He's the core piece that hits that best blend of valuable in a trade and potentially replaceable by a UFA (Hamilton). Some folks are still clamoring for Kuznetsov to be moved, even despite the lack of replacement options.


You just can't have it all the ways here, and the Capitals are treating their little ring of honor like humans. I'm just as proud of that (probably more) as I am of cheering for a winning hockey team, so in the end it really doesn't matter to me.
I'm all for treating your stars with respect. But that doesn't mean you never trade any core pieces. Carlson isn't on that Ovechkin or Backstrom level. Additionally, if the plan is to never trade any of the core players, I don't know why they aren't trying to shave off more AAV off their contracts by giving them full NMCs. Instead they go for partial NTCs. Why give them a defacto NMC without the potential negotiation and cap benefits of a full NMC?
 
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Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,431
9,150
Ted today mentioned Carlson in the same breath as 8/19 as core people they essentially intend to be lifers. Never say never. There could become a point with both where they're broken down yet not LTIRable and in dire straits to move on and get younger. But it's not their intention.
Caps HFBoard: "We are too old and need a inject of youth to be better. We will be worse next year."

Caps: Replace some old players with kids

Caps HFBoard: "These kids are unproven and not seasoned enough. We will be worse next year."
But did they? Fehervary has a clear spot now. That's about it unless Kempny is gimpy and Alexeyev beats out Irwin for the other spot rather than put a RD on the left. I guess McMichael could beat out Sheary but there's been no signal they actively intend to go young. It could happen. They haven't been completely blocked. But I'd be somewhat surprised if there were more than one rookie on a healthy roster next season.
 

HTFN

Registered User
Feb 8, 2009
12,287
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This is kinda missing my point, or perhaps addressing other poster's concerns rather than what I'm saying. I'm not here to wring hands about his previous deals (although there's certainly plenty to be written about there on both micro and macro levels). This is about going forwards, and the vision for the team. The flat cap is a bum deal, sure. GMBM did a good job maintaining through the flat cap, keeping the roster as intact as possible. But some of us have a very different vision for the team goign forwards than just maintaining the roster. If the intent is to try and win another Cup and not just start the countdown to 894, there are those of us who felt that more aggression in this off-season was needed. Running back the same team that has been spanked in the previous two playoffs is unlikely to result in significantly better playoff outcomes. I don't think any of this entails losing Ovechkin.

To me, the time to play it safe is when your team is on the ascent. When you're stocked with relatively young players, and you're coming close in the playoffs. When you're looking competitive in your playoff series and you can rationally evaluate the series and say "yeah, if we had these one or two bounces different we're moving on." That's when you play it safe and try for better luck in the next post-season, perhaps with some depth tweaks and TDL additions.

When your team is on the descent, it's aging and not looking competitive against other top teams, that's when playing it safe is not the route to take. That's when more substantial action is needed to revamp how the team plays, and to inject some new life into the team. That's when more drastic measures are required if you want a different outcome.
You're speaking conventionally, but again, this is going from a scenario where the cap was projected to rise yearly (and at a pretty good rate)to a screeching, jarring halt. They went into the compressed year with a new coach and no camp to speak of. This is not regular. It does not necessarily demand adherence to conventional wisdom, especially when considering the human elements in play. Conventionally I don't think the Capitals would have traded Vrana and taken a little more time to be patient, but the flat cap forced an alternative. You can't take big swings if the foundation isn't there, and resetting that takes time. It's just not fair to ask him to get it done in one year and also not lose any of the transactions (which we would also judge him on).
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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But... Canes fans and some of the same WAR metrics you post have Hamilton as a top tier offensive producing, middling defensive player. You're talking about getting rid of John Carlson for John Carlson, only a version that isn't outscoring the league over the last four years.

There's a difference between a middling defensive player and a trainwreck defensive player. Hamilton is the former, Carlson is the latter.

Aside from that they aren't really that similar of a player. Hamilton is a much better puck-distributor and driver of offense (even if he doesn't personally score as much), while not forcing his partner to do all of the defensive lifting. He also tends to make his linemates better, while the same can't really be said about Carlson who seems to be the most difficult player on the blueline to play with. Hamilton is much chippier than Carlson as well, not that that really matters to me.

As @Hivemind mentioned my calculus wasn't just Hamilton > Carlson (though I think it's true), but that Hamilton + a haul > Carlson. I highly doubt there wouldn't have been interest in Carlson this offseason from teams like Montreal and Toronto who badly need a 1RD.

Perhaps Dougie was dead set on NJ and nothing could have been done to get him to DC. That's fine. I'm not saying GMBM messed up. There are too many unknowns to say that. I'm just saying I would have pursued Hamilton in a vacuum. He's one of the rare big-ticket UFAs who I think will end up being worth his contract, similar to Matt Niskanen in that regard.

I'm more interested in their overall philosophy going forward and how management truly assesses the team as it stands. If they think they are good enough as it stands now, then I'd call that a big mistake. But if they see the team is lacking and are trying to address needs then I think they are doing their jobs . Typically GMBM addresses team needs pretty well and pretty aggressively, so I'm certainly not closing the door on this being the end of the offseason in terms of major moves for Washington.
 

HTFN

Registered User
Feb 8, 2009
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There's a difference between a middling defensive player and a trainwreck defensive player. Hamilton is the former, Carlson is the latter.

Aside from that they aren't really that similar of a player. Hamilton is a much better puck-distributor and driver of offense (even if he doesn't personally score as much), while not forcing his partner to do all of the defensive lifting. He also tends to make his linemates better, while the same can't really be said about Carlson who seems to be the most difficult player on the blueline to play with.

As @Hivemind mentioned my calculus wasn't just Hamilton > Carlson (though I think it's true), but that Hamilton + a haul > Carlson.

Perhaps Dougie was dead set on NJ and nothing could have been done to get him to DC. That's fine. I'm not saying GMBM messed up. There are too many unknowns to say that. I'm just saying I would have pursued Hamilton in a vacuum. He's one of the rare big-ticket UFAs who I think will end up being worth his contract, similar to Matt Niskanen.

I'm more interested in their overall philosophy going forward and how he truly assesses the team as it stands. If he thinks they are good enough as it stands now, then I'd call that a big mistake. But if he sees the team is lacking and is trying to address it then I think he's doing his job well. Typically he addresses team needs pretty well and pretty aggressively.
I don't think he's ever demonstrated a tendency to think he did a good job and should stand pat if the team isn't performing well, but he's also not willing to put himself at a disadvantage. If they're not taking swings now it's because they needed to get a handle on the flat cap first, and I think that's largely done after signing their big guys and moving bloat potential for cost control (Vrana for Mantha). It takes time to do that without tipping your hand, losing trades, paying assets, etc. and GMBM doesn't play one year at a time. Now I think he's in a good position to have the next 3 years managed and can start to play within the understood margins like he was doing before.

It just doesn't seem that bad.
 

Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,096
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Philadelphia
You're speaking conventionally, but again, this is going from a scenario where the cap was projected to rise yearly (and at a pretty good rate)to a screeching, jarring halt. They went into the compressed year with a new coach and no camp to speak of. This is not regular. It does not necessarily demand adherence to conventional wisdom, especially when considering the human elements in play. Conventionally I don't think the Capitals would have traded Vrana and taken a little more time to be patient, but the flat cap forced an alternative. You can't take big swings if the foundation isn't there, and resetting that takes time. It's just not fair to ask him to get it done in one year and also not lose any of the transactions (which we would also judge him on).
All the teams are playing by the same flat cap rules. Just because the cap is flat doesn't mean you can't attempt to make major moves. It adds constraints to work with, but every team is dealing with those constraints and a couple teams (Arizona, Chicago, Detroit) have demonstrated their willingness to be brokers to get things done. I'm certainly not whining that GMBM should have gone out and willy-nilly signed UFA contracts with cap hit that didn't exist, but making salary-out and salary-in trades is not impossible, especially if you make pieces like John Carlson available.

I don't worry as much about "losing" individual trades (the micro) if it suits the overall vision of the team (the macro). One of the issues that tied McPhee's hands for the majority of his tenure was his desire to "win" every trade. I'd be fine if MacLellan had to spend some to aggressively reshape the roster, so long as the direction is the right one. The issue is that the only trade he's made that even vaguely fits these concepts in the past few years ended up bringing more of the same to the team, and continued the trend of draining what speed and youth the team had left.

We don't have time to "reset the foundation" when the foundation itself is what's crumbling. You mentioned in your post to twabby that we're set up well for the next 3 years. I disagree. In 3 years time Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie will be 38, 36, and 37 respectively and combine for $24.45M in cap hit. Heck, you can add a 34 year old $8M John Carlson to that list if you want. The foundation of this team doesn't have 3 years to dick around. If we want another Cup, it's now or never.
 
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HTFN

Registered User
Feb 8, 2009
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All the teams are playing by the same flat cap rules. Just because the cap is flat doesn't mean you can't attempt to make major moves. It adds constraints to work with, but every team is dealing with those constraints and a couple teams (Arizona, Chicago, Detroit) have demonstrated their willingness to be brokers to get things done. I'm certainly not whining that GMBM should have gone out and willy-nilly signed UFA contracts with cap hit that didn't exist, but making salary-out and salary-in trades is not impossible, especially if you make pieces like John Carlson available.

I don't worry as much about "losing" individual trades (the micro) if it suits the overall vision of the team (the macro).
One of the issues that tied McPhee's hands for the majority of his tenure was his desire to "win" every trade. I'd be fine if MacLellan had to spend some to aggressively reshape the roster, so long as the direction is the right one. The issue is that the only trade he's made that even vaguely fits these concepts in the past few years ended up bringing more of the same to the team, and continued the trend of draining what speed and youth the team had left.

We don't have time to "reset the foundation" when the foundation itself is what's crumbling. You mentioned in your post to twabby that we're set up well for the next 3 years. I disagree. In 3 years time Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie will be 38, 36, and 37 respectively and combine for $24.45M in cap hit. Heck, you can add a 34 year old $8M John Carlson to that list if you want. The foundation of this team doesn't have 3 years to dick around. If we want another Cup, it's now or never.
First part is kind of bananas to me.

Second part, it's like you don't understand when I say "set up" that that's what they're set up for. To be that team with those contracts because we've elected to keep them, without necessarily spiraling all the way to the bottom by the end/just after. If things stay the same right now, the people you're not counting on that list could include any of Kuznetsov, Wilson, Mantha, Orlov, and they have at least one wave of prospects coming in with upside.

You just don't get it, we're talking about two different things here. You see "foundation" and think core, but I'm talking about contracts. The model for success in the NHL doesn't really encourage going terribly top-heavy, so when I talk about foundation it's about re-arranging the structure of the team during the next few years so that they don't pull a Chicago and end up near the bottom, wasting good seasons from still talented stars. That doesn't always have to do with star players, and it doesn't require Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie to carry the team if you do it right.
 

TheLegendOfPatPeake

Registered User
Jun 12, 2020
3,037
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Washington D.C.
All the teams are playing by the same flat cap rules. Just because the cap is flat doesn't mean you can't attempt to make major moves. It adds constraints to work with, but every team is dealing with those constraints and a couple teams (Arizona, Chicago, Detroit) have demonstrated their willingness to be brokers to get things done. I'm certainly not whining that GMBM should have gone out and willy-nilly signed UFA contracts with cap hit that didn't exist, but making salary-out and salary-in trades is not impossible, especially if you make pieces like John Carlson available.

I don't worry as much about "losing" individual trades (the micro) if it suits the overall vision of the team (the macro). One of the issues that tied McPhee's hands for the majority of his tenure was his desire to "win" every trade. I'd be fine if MacLellan had to spend some to aggressively reshape the roster, so long as the direction is the right one. The issue is that the only trade he's made that even vaguely fits these concepts in the past few years ended up bringing more of the same to the team, and continued the trend of draining what speed and youth the team had left.

We don't have time to "reset the foundation" when the foundation itself is what's crumbling. You mentioned in your post to twabby that we're set up well for the next 3 years. I disagree. In 3 years time Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie will be 38, 36, and 37 respectively and combine for $24.45M in cap hit. Heck, you can add a 34 year old $8M John Carlson to that list if you want. The foundation of this team doesn't have 3 years to dick around. If we want another Cup, it's now or never.
Preach. You are saying everything I can’t eloquently put into words.
 
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Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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Second part, it's like you don't understand when I say "set up" that that's what they're set up for. To be that team with those contracts because we've elected to keep them, without necessarily spiraling all the way to the bottom by the end/just after. If things stay the same right now, the people you're not counting on that list could include any of Kuznetsov, Wilson, Mantha, Orlov, and they have at least one wave of prospects coming in with upside.

You just don't get it, we're talking about two different things here. You see "foundation" and think core, but I'm talking about contracts. The model for success in the NHL doesn't really encourage going terribly top-heavy, so when I talk about foundation it's about re-arranging the structure of the team during the next few years so that they don't pull a Chicago and end up near the bottom, wasting good seasons from still talented stars. That doesn't always have to do with star players, and it doesn't require Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie to carry the team if you do it right.

We are talking about the same thing. The contracts and the players that are signed to those contracts are inherently linked. This isn't about just having Ovie, Nicky, and Backstrom carry the team, but it's an awful lot harder to succeed with roughly $25M of your cap hit is producing under value. It's an impediment to success. And we need to maximize our chances to win while that portion of the cap is still functioning as well as possible.

This team IS NOT set-up for prime contention in the immediate future. It's a bubble team. The "wave of prospects" is much more like a trickle, and the Caps justifiably have one of the worst ranked prospect pools in the league.

You're concerned about "pulling a Chicago?" Chicago won THREE CUPS. We won one. We're already falling out of contention and wasting years. I'd take Chicago's model over ours every day of the week. And, hell, for as much as that Seth Jones contract is ridiculous, Chicago could very well end up in the playoffs if Fleury reports. Not to mention they just added a solid piece in Tyler Johnson and have one of the best young stars in the game in Alex DeBrincat to carry them into the next stage of their team.
 

TheLegendOfPatPeake

Registered User
Jun 12, 2020
3,037
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Washington D.C.
We are talking about the same thing. The contracts and the players that are signed to those contracts are inherently linked. This isn't about just having Ovie, Nicky, and Backstrom carry the team, but it's an awful lot harder to succeed with roughly $25M of your cap hit is producing under value. It's an impediment to success. And we need to maximize our chances to win while that portion of the cap is still functioning as well as possible.

This team IS NOT set-up for prime contention in the immediate future. It's a bubble team. The "wave of prospects" is much more like a trickle, and the Caps justifiably have one of the worst ranked prospect pools in the league.

You're concerned about "pulling a Chicago?" Chicago won THREE CUPS. We won one. We're already falling out of contention and wasting years. I'd take Chicago's model over ours every day of the week. And, hell, for as much as that Seth Jones contract is ridiculous, Chicago could very well end up in the playoffs if Fleury reports. Not to mention they just added a solid piece in Tyler Johnson and have one of the best young stars in the game in Alex DeBrincat to carry them into the next stage of their team.
While you are spitting facts, I am now much sadder.
 

HTFN

Registered User
Feb 8, 2009
12,287
10,978
We are talking about the same thing. The contracts and the players that are signed to those contracts are inherently linked. This isn't about just having Ovie, Nicky, and Backstrom carry the team, but it's an awful lot harder to succeed with roughly $25M of your cap hit is producing under value. It's an impediment to success. And we need to maximize our chances to win while that portion of the cap is still functioning as well as possible.

This team IS NOT set-up for prime contention in the immediate future. It's a bubble team. The "wave of prospects" is much more like a trickle, and the Caps justifiably have one of the worst ranked prospect pools in the league.

You're concerned about "pulling a Chicago?" Chicago won THREE CUPS. We won one. We're already falling out of contention and wasting years. I'd take Chicago's model over ours every day of the week. And, hell, for as much as that Seth Jones contract is ridiculous, Chicago could very well end up in the playoffs if Fleury reports. Not to mention they just added a solid piece in Tyler Johnson and have one of the best young stars in the game in Alex DeBrincat to carry them into the next stage of their team.
How do you bitch about people around here arguing in bad faith and then act like pulling a Chicago has anything to do with winning three cups, and not taking those teams and painting themselves into an obvious corner in basically the blink of an eye? They could have been dominating the decade and challenging the Penguins instead of just now getting out of (some of) their mistakes to the point that all your “if’s” pretty much put them squarely less good than (but let’s give you on par with) a healthy Capitals team at the moment anyway, and they took a route that kept them successful instead of that little tour of the bottom.
 
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Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
37,096
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Philadelphia
How do you bitch about people around here arguing in bad faith and then act like pulling a Chicago has anything to do with winning three cups, and not taking those teams and painting themselves into an obvious corner in basically the blink of an eye? They could have been dominating the decade and challenging the Penguins instead of just now getting out of (some of) their mistakes to the point that all your “if’s” pretty much put them squarely less good than (but let’s give you on par with) a healthy Capitals team at the moment anyway, and they took a route that kept them successful instead of that little tour of the bottom.
That’s not true. They painted themselves into a corner over the span of several years, and the moves that have been by far the most harmful to their success have been the same type of moves you’re lauding the Capitals for (giving huge contracts to the star players that helped them achieve their success). They didn’t just up and decide after they won to start tanking. Chicago is bad because of the cap hell that the Toews, Kane, Keith, Hossa, and Seabrook contracts put them in.
 
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Empty Goal Net

Do I see another GOAT?
Feb 13, 2010
4,398
3,426
Thinking I'm in Hive's camp here. Though not sure how the %ages compare, but it seems like the Caps have reached the bloated/top-heavy Chicago stage with only one Cup to show for it. Would have liked to see Carly moved for a good return, and landing Dougie would've been great. Don't know what BMac's Plan B would've been if he didn't get Dougie but had already ditched Johnny B.
 

Raikkonen

Dumb guy
Aug 19, 2009
10,726
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Russia
Which is pretty depressing. If all people care about is the goal record, good for them. I’d rather see the team win another championship.
Last time the rebuild was done via trading all valuable players. Now they cant do that and therefore cant be serious about the cup for the time being. Lets be reality.
 

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