GDT: Free Agency 2021

[Corby78]

Who is this Matt Irwin guy?

Edit: so apparently a big D, with not a little of skill. I hope this means were not signing Chara, or since its a two-way he is destined for Hershey

 

[twabby]

But that chart you just posted praising Dougie as 2nd in xGAR since 2018 also shows John Carlson 8th in xGAR in that same time frame. Top 10 defender, that seems elite, no?

It's one model. Other models aren't as kind to Carlson, though none paint him as terrible of course. Micah's model, for instance, has the following for Carlson:

Over a 5-year sample he's been a net drag on 5v5 chance production when accounting for teammates, competition, zone-starts, etc. Particularly bad defensively, and not very good at producing chances offensively (though he is good at finishing chances).

Carlson is good. But he's not a true #1 on a contender. The best we can hope for really is a platoon #1 situation like he was when Niskanen was around, but even then Carlson is only getting older and more dinged up every year. Carlson in particular has been abused over the past 3 postseasons. I don't have any models handy to prove this other than his lack of 5v5 production (both in terms of chances and points), but I doubt anyone is happy with his performance.

Either the Capitals have to find a Niskanen-type shutdown defender to keep Carlson away from any matchup roles, or they need to acquire a true all-situations #1. I suggested the latter with Dougie Hamilton, but now that that has come and gone I don't really see another good option in that direction.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Who is this Matt Irwin guy?

Edit: so apparently a big D, with not a little of skill. I hope this means were not signing Chara, or since its a two-way he is destined for Hershey

Think Mike Weber but not as tough.

 

[Langway]

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

At that price, Caps obviously didn’t really want him back.

 

[Chokingdogs]

I think a better message would be, "We'll beat the shit out of you and beat you on the scoreboard, so don't try to act tough." Also, it's game one of 82, we don't need Wilson missing time breaking his hand on someone's face.

agreed. With Dillon gone, seemingly no chara. That leaves Wilson……………………..Hathaway
To handle any rough stuff.

 

[tenken00]

Yeah, if last year didn't happen I would have said just let Tommy handle it himself.

But after the Boston incident and the NYR incident the league is looking at Tom hard.
No more suspensions. The next one might be a doozy.

 

[tenken00]

You know what, now that I think about it.. that's kinda messed up by the NHL.

The league tells Tom, "don't you dare fight or engage in some non-hockey shenanigans after what happened with the Rangers at the end of last season. We are watching you.

Also fans, we are pleased to present to you the Rangers vs the Caps for your season opener!"

 

[Cappy76]

You know what, now that I think about it.. that's kinda messed up by the NHL.

The league tells Tom, "don't you dare fight or engage in some non-hockey shenanigans after what happened with the Rangers at the end of last season. We are watching you.

Also fans, we are pleased to present to you the Rangers vs the Caps for your season opener!"

The leagues handling of Tom Wilson related incidents has been a joke for awhile now.

 

[HecticGlow]

Think Mike Weber but not as tough.

Not the greatest endorsement ever… was Mike Weber particularly useful at anything beyond his toughness?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

So unless something unforseen occurs with the likes of Schultz and/or Kempny, then I have no problem rolling with the current roster.

Bottom line personnel changes would be:
Kempny in Dillon out
Fehervary in Chara out
Pilon or someother Hershey forward in Rafl out

Are the Capitals better, well no. But at least we can possibly see a plan develop as well as a pathway for some of our Hershey players.

Approaching the TDL Capitals can sell off Schultz, Kempny and Dowd all who will have expiring contracts. Teams pay more at TDLs, so I would expect the return could be picks in the 2nd, third or fourth rounds.

Don't know when the date is for the 2022 TDL, but with the aforementioned players moving out you can begin to move in the of likes Alexeyev for Kempny and McMichael for Dowd at the time and another dman from Hershey. This way AA and McMichael start to get some NHL experience in the waning 2022 regular season games and even the playoffs if we make them.

 

[Hivemind]

Not the greatest endorsement ever… was Mike Weber particularly useful at anything beyond his toughness?

There's a reason Irwin was signed for Hershey and not the Capitals

 

[Raikkonen]

Dowd is useful player Caps better keep.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Dowd is useful player Caps better keep.

Dowd's 31 years old. You've heard the term used in baseball that a player had a career year. Well that's what Dowd just had and I don't expect him to repeat it. McMichael will need to be brought up but I don't envision McMichael as a 4th liner.

 

[Hivemind]

Dowd is useful player Caps better keep.

He's going to turn 32 this season, and presumably be looking for a raise compared to his bargain basement contracts. It's his last big chance to get a sizable contract in the NHL. They could certainly still keep him a couple more years, but he's not going to be a long term fixture here either way. It wouldn't be the end of the world to look for 4Cs and PK forwards internally or via cheap outside additions.

The Caps already have one of the most expensive 4th lines in the NHL (on a cap strapped team no less). Dowd is the one cheap member of the line currently, but if he's no longer going to be cheap next year (and he should be looking to cash out on the best chance of his career to get paid), it likely makes sense to move on.

 

[Langway]

There's a reason Irwin was signed for Hershey and not the Capitals

He's on a two-way deal so probably but Laviolette has played him in the past in Nashville. I fear he somehow randomly carves out a depth role over Fehervary ala Carr.

Barring injuries they're probably not going to be sellers at the trade deadline. They'd have to be really off pace to go that route rather than panic buy. They're much more likely to either shake it up in-season or panic buy at the deadline again just to make the playoffs. Right now I have them largely neck and neck with Pittsburgh and NYR for the third or fourth (if there is a fourth) spot in the division behind NYI/CAR. There's still a lot to play out this summer but where's growth coming from? The goaltenders and maybe Fehervary+Sprong? I don't think a full training camp makes much of a difference. More systems familiarity could help some but if they go into the season minus Dillon & Chara I don't know how the PK and general defensive snarl gets up to par. Maybe they just embrace fun-and-gun and being mildly decent on the way to 895. Even then they probably need a little more pace.

They've now missed the boat on dumping Kempny/Jensen/Schultz and replacing them in free agency. All that's left is Murray, Merrill & Demers basically. If anything maybe they aggressively target a player a year away from UFA on a rebuilding team that won't re-sign ala Jones by bundling one and their '22 first rounder for an upgrade. Doubtful but if Kuznetsov is staying that's maybe the next best and most realistic means to upgrade.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

He's on a two-way deal so probably but Laviolette has played him in the past in Nashville. I fear he somehow randomly carves out a depth role over Fehervary ala Carr.

Barring injuries they're probably not going to be sellers at the trade deadline. They'd have to be really off pace to go that route rather than panic buy. They're much more likely to either shake it up in-season or panic buy at the deadline again just to make the playoffs. Right now I have them largely neck and neck with Pittsburgh and NYR for the third or fourth (if there is a fourth) spot in the division behind NYI/CAR. There's still a lot to play out this summer but where's growth coming from? The goaltenders and maybe Fehervary+Sprong? I don't think a full training camp makes much of a difference. More systems familiarity could help some but if they go into the season minus Dillon & Chara I don't know how the PK and general defensive snarl gets up to par. Maybe they just embrace fun-and-gun and being mildly decent on the way to 895. Even then they probably need a little more pace.

They've now missed the boat on dumping Kempny/Jensen/Schultz and replacing them in free agency. All that's left is Murray, Merrill & Demers basically. If anything maybe they aggressively target a player a year away from UFA on a rebuilding team that won't re-sign ala Jones by bundling one and their '22 first rounder for an upgrade. Doubtful but if Kuznetsov is staying that's maybe the next best and most realistic means to upgrade.

I certainly don't want to see Irwin impede Fehervary's arrival or play. But if Lavy's fixated on Irwin being up with the big club, then move Schultz now so Fehervary is still with the Caps. With some of Schultz's cap sign MAJO (good gawd, I don't think I ever expected to want him back, but I believe his position versatility would be an asset).

 

[Hivemind]

When Irwin played for Lavi in Nashville, it's not like he was displacing other players. He was generally playing 3rd pairing minutes and only ahead of guys like Yannick Weber and Anthony Bitteto on the depth chart. Not exactly blocking anyone of real promise. The best guy he was ahead of was probably Matt Carle, but 2017 was the twilight of Carle's career and he was eventually waived for mutual contract termination and then retired. Maybe you can say Alexandre Carrier in 2019-20, but even he bounced between the taxi squad and active roster a bit in 2021. Irwin also served as a healthy scratch plenty of times during his stint in Nashville. Unless there's more than I'm missing, I'm not super worried about Lavi playing favorites with Irwin.

 

[Misery74]

So unless something unforseen occurs with the likes of Schultz and/or Kempny, then I have no problem rolling with the current roster.

Bottom line personnel changes would be:
Kempny in Dillon out
Fehervary in Chara out
Pilon or someother Hershey forward in Rafl out

Are the Capitals better, well no. But at least we can possibly see a plan develop as well as a pathway for some of our Hershey players.

Approaching the TDL Capitals can sell off Schultz, Kempny and Dowd all who will have expiring contracts. Teams pay more at TDLs, so I would expect the return could be picks in the 2nd, third or fourth rounds.

Don't know when the date is for the 2022 TDL, but with the aforementioned players moving out you can begin to move in the of likes Alexeyev for Kempny and McMichael for Dowd at the time and another dman from Hershey. This way AA and McMichael start to get some NHL experience in the waning 2022 regular season games and even the playoffs if we make them.

No. Unless the kids are legit. We are not better. Bubble playoff team.

 

[HTFN]

It's one model. Other models aren't as kind to Carlson, though none paint him as terrible of course. Micah's model, for instance, has the following for Carlson:

View attachment 457611

Over a 5-year sample he's been a net drag on 5v5 chance production when accounting for teammates, competition, zone-starts, etc. Particularly bad defensively, and not very good at producing chances offensively (though he is good at finishing chances).

Carlson is good. But he's not a true #1 on a contender. The best we can hope for really is a platoon #1 situation like he was when Niskanen was around, but even then Carlson is only getting older and more dinged up every year. Carlson in particular has been abused over the past 3 postseasons. I don't have any models handy to prove this other than his lack of 5v5 production (both in terms of chances and points), but I doubt anyone is happy with his performance.

Either the Capitals have to find a Niskanen-type shutdown defender to keep Carlson away from any matchup roles, or they need to acquire a true all-situations #1. I suggested the latter with Dougie Hamilton, but now that that has come and gone I don't really see another good option in that direction.

But... Canes fans and some of the same WAR metrics you post have Hamilton as a top tier offensive producing, middling defensive player. You're talking about getting rid of John Carlson for John Carlson, only a version that isn't outscoring the league over the last four years.

 

[Hivemind]

But... Canes fans and some of the same WAR metrics you post have Hamilton as a top tier offensive producing, middling defensive player. You're talking about getting rid of John Carlson for John Carlson, only a version that isn't outscoring the league over the last four years.

Even accepting that view, you would be getting rid of John Carlson for Dougie Carlson PLUS the trade return for John Carlson (which should be quite substantial). That kind of trade return would either bolster the Caps future in the final years of the Ovechkin contract, or could be used alongside the return for Kuznetsov to make a play at Eichel (or Hertl or whatever other C you want to target).

But Hamilton's gone now, so the moment has likely passed. So onto discussing the pros and cons of making a play for Colton Parayko or John Klingberg (RD, expiring contracts).

 

[HTFN]

Even accepting that view, you would be getting rid of John Carlson for Dougie Carlson PLUS the trade return for John Carlson (which should be quite substantial). That kind of trade return would either bolster the Caps future in the final years of the Ovechkin contract, or could be used alongside the return for Kuznetsov to make a play at Eichel (or Hertl or whatever other C you want to target).

But Hamilton's gone now, so the moment has likely passed. So onto discussing the pros and cons of making a play for Colton Parayko or John Klingberg (RD, expiring contracts).

That's not worth it in the real world. Games, maybe, but not really here. A bird in the hand, and so on...

 

[Hivemind]

That's not worth it in the real world. Games, maybe, but not really here. A bird in the hand, and so on...

Comes down to whether or not you feel the general construction of this roster is adequate or not. GMBM has done a wonderful job of steering his way out of a cap crunch with minimal damage to the roster, but it's also basically the exact same roster as last year but with less depth and more youth at LD. He's running it in maintenance mode. If you wanted the roster reshaped in more dramatic ways (as many around here did), that's when the riskier approaches of trying to move in and out several parts comes into play.

 

[Corby78]

Caps HFBoard: "We are too old and need a inject of youth to be better. We will be worse next year."

Caps: Replace some old players with kids

Caps HFBoard: "These kids are unproven and not seasoned enough. We will be worse next year."

 

[HTFN]

Comes down to whether or not you feel the general construction of this roster is adequate or not. GMBM has done a wonderful job of steering his way out of a cap crunch with minimal damage to the roster, but it's also basically the exact same roster as last year but with less depth and more youth at LD. He's running it in maintenance mode. If you wanted the roster reshaped in more dramatic ways (as many around here did), that's when the riskier approaches of trying to move in and out several parts comes into play.

People's impatience in that regard just blows me away, though.

It's pretty obviously clear to anyone who is retaining the last two years in their brain at one time that GMBM had one plan, was shown the flat cap, and has done a pretty good job of pivoting off of his structure without steering into any major pitfalls. There are people in here reeling like this was his plan all along and not what you have to do to adjust to the unknown, and it's just insane. While other teams are out there making huge downgrade trades and opening up roster holes for seemingly no reason, bringing back mostly the same team is not necessarily a loss.

It's like... this is one of those "we have food at home" years, and that's fine. Kids wanted McDonalds but having the home to go back to is kind of better. This was a pay Ovechkin in the flat cap year, and people need to remember that it didn't have to be a foregone conclusion.... I would rather "bring back the same team minus Dillon" than bring back a different team minus Ovechkin. I'm not saying it had to be one or the other but if there's a time to play it safe this was pretty much it, and I'm not going to be too upset over it.

I think the structure of the team is just fine and the only way it changes significantly is by moving people that hurt. When you can't move Ovechkin, Backstrom, probably Oshie, etc. you don't leave a lot of room for overhaul, so really... you work with their support staff, you tinker, you try to develop, and you wait for them to leave on their own terms. You just can't have it all the ways here, and the Capitals are treating their little ring of honor like humans. I'm just as proud of that (probably more) as I am of cheering for a winning hockey team, so in the end it really doesn't matter to me.