all i know is. this is what probably is going to happen
1: the Leafs overpay to keep him. (and they will, because -again, Cody Franson has all the leverage. UFA, RHD, Powerplay Specialist, very weak UFA-Defense Class).
here is a taste of who is available:
Mike Green
Sergei Gonchar
Paul Martin
Lubomir Visnovsky
Andrej Mezaros
Zbynek Michalek
Christian Erhoff
Marc Staal
Francois Beauchemin
Johnny Oduya
Johnny Boychuck
Cody Franson
out of that list, only he & Staal are the youngest (Green is 29). Franson is going to get paid. right now, Chicago is sacrificing anything and everything that isn't nailed down that the cap raises because they are so utterly and completely screwed if it doesn't, and Quennville loves Oduya (which is why Leddy was the one who got traded), so he can be a UFA. Considering the Staals want to play together, Mark is probably going to go to Carolina for a song. which means, technically. the UFA-D market is headlined by Franson, Oduya and Green. Maybe Beauchamin/Martin as well.
out of that list, simply because of the points they produce, Franson/Green will get "are you kidding me numbers."
I don't want the Leafs paying him that simply because he can put up points on the net.
2: the Leafs are a speedy, speedy team. Cody Franson is not. Period. Interactif said he'd rather have a 'smart & slow defenseman, than fast and not so smart one' (paraphase) - I'd rather have a smart + fast defenseman). Franson can get burned by speed, and sometimes his decisions aren't the best. now if this can be addressed with Barb Lessons -then fine, but if not. that is a concern moving forward. you get slower as you age - he's 27 and he struggles now.
3: once again: is Cody Franson the guy you want to be paying 5++ million (even if you move Jake out) (at his age, and his foot speed and other issues) to be on your ultimately bottom pairing. let's stop and think about it:
pairing one:
Dion Phaneuf--Morgan Rielly. <<---- that is/should be how it ends up in the next 2-3 years. next year, Morgan is going to be tested with top pairing minutes, right? we can agree with this?
pairing two
_____ --______
this one is up in the air. we'll work on the premise that Jake is traded. We probably will assume that Percy makes the team full time next year and they'll pencil him top 4 (to challenge) slash pairing three minutes. we're also going to assume that the Leafs don't go after Staal, Odyua, Beauchamin or Martin, or Boychuck.
that pairing should
Robidas & Percy. It gives Percy a chance to be with a steady partner and someone to mentor him. (I am giving Robidas a flyer this year because of his leg. chances are after the third year, we're not going to tender him an extension)
third pairing:
Polak and either Franson OR whomever makes it out of camp
Leafs are in LOVE with Loov. (which is why they fought so hard with MODO to release him). Granberg is progressing nicely, who knows about Finn. (hopefully he's getting Barb lessons too).
you can argue that Franson + Robidas could be together.
people always go well 'look at Franson's partner' if his number/turnovers etc are bad which means y'all don't want him to 'mentor' people (because his numbers were brutal with Jake & Morgan).
and again - this is an assumption that the Leafs don't go after ANYONE via RFA (doubt it ) or UFA. (and Boychuk, Martin and Odyua - i'd take the flyer on Staal) could be tempting.. (which all depends on what they decide to do with Jake).
I don't know - if Cody's stats + lack of speed + where he'd ultimately end up. is worth 5++ for uber years.