i think you are overrating gauthier. we haven't seen the ceiling on komarov, we've only seen one season. santorelli was doing well in the top 6 in vancouver from reports.
to clarify my argument, he MIGHT be the bpa at 21, but in terms of offensive ceiling, shinkaruk or burkovsky have more potential. i personally thought he could be seen as bpa, because i also factor in the chances to make the nhl and his overall skillset, but by no means did i think he had the highest skill, especially when it comes to scoring touch.
I've seen plenty of Komarov and I think he has more to show than he did the last time around, and I loved him then. But you are not really arguing against me here. Santorelli has one half season where he was great, most of his NHL career he's been a fringe NHL player. Komarov has not shown that he can translate his game more than to be a top fourth liner.
While I'm positive and hopeful about the impact these guys have in the upcoming season, I wouldn't really mention them as great bottom six players. Komarov is a good one, Santorelli could be great if he could build on last season (much higher work rate than previously), but track record would be against you there. Gauthier looks bound to be a great one.
And no, he doesn't have the same offensive upside as Burakowsky and Shinkaruk. I'd probably guess he'll end up having more of an impact than at least the latter though.
There's another aspect of Gauthier that I keep thinking about. The CHL game is different from a pro game, things that work well in junior won't work at all at the NHL level. I'm not sure if you watched Drouin at Tampas camp after he was drafted? He did amazing things. They were also often things that were borderline idiotic to try at the NHL level, and I'm pretty sure that's a part of why he was sent back down. Now to come back to Gauthier, he produces offense in a way that is very consistent with how offense is created in NHL. He will cycle, he will make safe, smart passes at the right times. He won't do fancy moves near the bluelines to beat a man.
I think we could end up seeing his numbers drop off less than normal going from CHL to NHL. I also think he'd complement skilled offensive wingers that like to cycle very well.
I would say this is a very fair post. I have Lazar pegged as a #2C on a good team. On a great team, he could be a great #3C. He has offence and defence to his game which is something that is very attractive.
I keep hearing Gauthier is going to be defensive beast. At the Worlds we didn't see this, or I didn't. Now people are going to say I am being negative again and I am picking on him. But I don't see anything special in his defensive game that would make me say Bob Gainey.
He's responsible defensively, he tries hard, he is a big lumbering worker. Nothing wrong with this, maybe I am wrong, but the hype of him being this defensive beast, I honestly haven't seen it. Maybe he is the type that grows on you or maybe we need to see more of him. I just doubt anyone has seen him enough to say this guy is Bergeron elite defensively. And I am not comparing him to bergeron, only his defence.
Thinking Bob Gainey would be setting yourself up for disappointment, but I know you didn't mean it that way.
Gauthier has excellent positional sense, reads the play very well and has a very active stick. He's also good along the boards. The thing he lacks defensively right now is some intensity, be a bit more of a puck hound. If he gets that, then he can be the type that just hunts the puck without getting himself out of play and also has the skill to steal and turn possession.
Since I've written a long post talking him up, I'll notice what I see as his drawbacks as well for balance. He lacks some intensity, as I've mentioned. This goes on both sides of the rink. His skating is a case of strengths and weaknesses, there is room for improvement there. His shot is an outright weakness that he needs to work heavily on, or he won't be a threat at the NHL level and the goaltenders won't have to respect that. He also has a propensity for choosing the safe play a bit too often. He seems very able to be a great playmaker, but he doesn't take that responsibility enough.
At this point, I'm seeing a 35 point #3C who'll be our best defensive player, and who will play heavy defensive minutes but still get us some decent possession. I'm fairly confident about that projection. Things can of course go both up and down.