Flyers Advanced Analysis Thread (2018-2019)

[Ghosts Beer]

I’d like to see the heatmaps of teams who have finished similarly in the standings as a point of comparison.

There’s also a chicken & egg situation here.

 

[Harhis]

Is this the best evidence of Hak's system being built around point shots?

Apparently not. It just tells we have bad, soft and small players. Nothing wrong with Hak.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Been looking at other teams' shot heat maps and it is actually quite jarring.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

RE: Hakstol and Shots from Defensemen

Heat maps are great for showing relative to league average, but in this case I would rather look at how they compare to individual teams so we can see the extremes of prioritization. If we take raw 5v5 Defenseman Shot totals from every team last year, we end up with:

Team	D Shots
CBJ	751
PHL	745
SJ	730
PIT	727
EDM	726
CAL	717
NYI	702
CAR	699
CHI	693
STL	689
TB	687
NSH	648
OTT	645
WIN	623
FL	622
VAN	612
NYR	610
VGK	600
BOS	581
WAS	580
ARZ	579
NJ	579
ANA	573
DAL	566
COL	560
MON	556
TOR	548
BUF	541
DET	521
LA	519
MIN	479

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ok, so that's a pretty clear emphasis. But what happens if we adjust for Pace and System by taking D Unit Shot totals as a percentage of 5v5 Shots generated by teams overall?

Team	%Shots by D
PHL	37.18
NYI	35.04
SJ	34.90
CAL	33.41
EDM	33.31
CBJ	33.08
STL	32.98
OTT	32.87
TB	32.79
PIT	32.59
NSH	31.80
VAN	31.79
CAR	31.71
CHI	31.44
WAS	31.37
NYR	30.70
WIN	30.48
COL	30.41
ARZ	30.28
ANA	29.53
DAL	29.37
VGK	28.89
NJ	28.70
FL	28.60
BUF	27.90
BOS	27.61
MON	26.80
LA	26.78
DET	26.54
TOR	26.40
MIN	24.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So not only are they clearly 1st, the only two teams even in the same galaxy as them are a hilariously wide open Islanders team and a San Jose team who has Brent Burns. To give you an idea of how far off the charts Burns is, he had 5 less 5v5 Shots than Gostisbehere and Gudas combined.

TLDR; Jeff likey.

 

[Embiid]

RE: Hakstol and Shots from Defensemen

Heat maps are great for showing relative to league average, but in this case I would rather look at how they compare to individual teams so we can see the extremes of prioritization. If we take raw 5v5 Defenseman Shot totals from every team last year, we end up with:

Team	D Shots
CBJ	751
PHL	745
SJ	730
PIT	727
EDM	726
CAL	717
NYI	702
CAR	699
CHI	693
STL	689
TB	687
NSH	648
OTT	645
WIN	623
FL	622
VAN	612
NYR	610
VGK	600
BOS	581
WAS	580
ARZ	579
NJ	579
ANA	573
DAL	566
COL	560
MON	556
TOR	548
BUF	541
DET	521
LA	519
MIN	479

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ok, so that's a pretty clear emphasis. But what happens if we adjust for Pace and System by taking D Unit Shot totals as a percentage of 5v5 Shots generated by teams overall?

Team	%Shots by D
PHL	37.18
NYI	35.04
SJ	34.90
CAL	33.41
EDM	33.31
CBJ	33.08
STL	32.98
OTT	32.87
TB	32.79
PIT	32.59
NSH	31.80
VAN	31.79
CAR	31.71
CHI	31.44
WAS	31.37
NYR	30.70
WIN	30.48
COL	30.41
ARZ	30.28
ANA	29.53
DAL	29.37
VGK	28.89
NJ	28.70
FL	28.60
BUF	27.90
BOS	27.61
MON	26.80
LA	26.78
DET	26.54
TOR	26.40
MIN	24.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So not only are they clearly 1st, the only two teams even in the same galaxy as them are a hilariously wide open Islanders team and a San Jose team who has Brent Burns. To give you an idea of how far off the charts Burns is, he had 5 less 5v5 Shots than Gostisbehere and Gudas combined.

TLDR; Jeff likey.

What an indictment.....just sad....sad!

 

[Beef Invictus]

RE: Hakstol and Shots from Defensemen

Heat maps are great for showing relative to league average, but in this case I would rather look at how they compare to individual teams so we can see the extremes of prioritization. If we take raw 5v5 Defenseman Shot totals from every team last year, we end up with:

Team	D Shots
CBJ	751
PHL	745
SJ	730
PIT	727
EDM	726
CAL	717
NYI	702
CAR	699
CHI	693
STL	689
TB	687
NSH	648
OTT	645
WIN	623
FL	622
VAN	612
NYR	610
VGK	600
BOS	581
WAS	580
ARZ	579
NJ	579
ANA	573
DAL	566
COL	560
MON	556
TOR	548
BUF	541
DET	521
LA	519
MIN	479

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ok, so that's a pretty clear emphasis. But what happens if we adjust for Pace and System by taking D Unit Shot totals as a percentage of 5v5 Shots generated by teams overall?

Team	%Shots by D
PHL	37.18
NYI	35.04
SJ	34.90
CAL	33.41
EDM	33.31
CBJ	33.08
STL	32.98
OTT	32.87
TB	32.79
PIT	32.59
NSH	31.80
VAN	31.79
CAR	31.71
CHI	31.44
WAS	31.37
NYR	30.70
WIN	30.48
COL	30.41
ARZ	30.28
ANA	29.53
DAL	29.37
VGK	28.89
NJ	28.70
FL	28.60
BUF	27.90
BOS	27.61
MON	26.80
LA	26.78
DET	26.54
TOR	26.40
MIN	24.50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So not only are they clearly 1st, the only two teams even in the same galaxy as them are a hilariously wide open Islanders team and a San Jose team who has Brent Burns. To give you an idea of how far off the charts Burns is, he had 5 less 5v5 Shots than Gostisbehere and Gudas combined.

TLDR; Jeff likey.

This is good work.

 

[deadhead]

Except no one has told me who on the Flyers is an above average slot forward other than JVR.
Once upon a time Simmonds was dangerous in the crease.
We used to have players like Schenn, Hartnell and Jagr.
Who else? Maybe Couts? Patrick and Lindblom down the road? That's about it.

Hextall drafted Allison, Ratcliffe, Strome, maybe he recognized the problem?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Except no one has told me who on the Flyers is an above average slot forward other than JVR.
Once upon a time Simmonds was dangerous in the crease.
We used to have players like Schenn, Hartnell and Jagr.
Who else? Maybe Couts? Patrick and Lindblom down the road? That's about it.

Hextall drafted Allison, Ratcliffe, Strome, maybe he recognized the problem?

The reason you think we have nobody who can play in the slot is because for years now, the team hasn't really even tried to play there.

If we'd had JVR throughout Hak's tenure, then you wouldn't be listing him as a slot player. He'd be on the perimeter like everyone else. That will be what Allison, Ratcliffe, and Strome would do, too. That's what Hakstol wants.

 

[freakydallas13]

I actually think the slot is the ideal place for coots, he scores almost all of his goals from medium to close range.

 

[1865]

In games in which we’ve had a goaltending performance of .900 or more (which is a shameful 12 games) we’re 9-3. When it’s below that we’re 3-10-3. This is with the worst special teams units combination the world has ever seen. It’s a difference in points pace of 123 to 46...

Whilst the season is clearly drifting, this shows we’re so close to being a good team. Even basically mediocre netminding and specials is going to have us winning far more than we lose.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

The reason you think we have nobody who can play in the slot is because for years now, the team hasn't really even tried to play there.

If we'd had JVR throughout Hak's tenure, then you wouldn't be listing him as a slot player. He'd be on the perimeter like everyone else. That will be what Allison, Ratcliffe, and Strome would do, too. That's what Hakstol wants.

He's so ****ing terrible. Fire Hakstok.

 

[Beef Invictus]

He's so ****ing terrible. Fire Hakstok.

Let's please note that JVR is suddenly not a slot player anymore now that Babcock isn't breathing down his fat neck.

 

[Beef Invictus]

In games in which we’ve had a goaltending performance of .900 or more (which is a shameful 12 games) we’re 9-3. When it’s below that we’re 3-10-3. This is with the worst special teams units combination the world has ever seen. It’s a difference in points pace of 123 to 46...

Whilst the season is clearly drifting, this shows we’re so close to being a good team. Even basically mediocre netminding and specials is going to have us winning far more than we lose.

And of course, the horrific PK has certainly done a ton of damage. You know, that thing they refuse to fix.

ES save percentage is .900 which still sucks hard, but it sure as hell is better than the aggregate .879.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Bringing the Goaltending and Special Teams up to mediocre would make them roughly average across the board. I could definitely buy that this would make them a playoff team, but winning far more than they lose is a bit heavy-handed.

Every team in the league has a significantly better record when their Goalie plays at least decently. I'm not sure what that's supposed to illustrate outside of the percentage of starts where they haven't been for this team or why team record under X or Y narrow conditions even really matters in this discussion at all.

The Goalies have largely been terrible. Mediocre Goaltending would be a huge boon. That stands on its own. No argument at all.

 

[Beef Invictus]

At what point is the G coach relieved?

 

[Rebels57]

At what point is the G coach relieved?

Yeah, he's trash honestly.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Dillabaugh is a name we can have fun with if we have to.

Then again, I don't know what he' supposed to do with a coach who treats an old Elliott and a Faberge Neuvy like they're Tonka Trucks. I guess we see what happens with Stolarz.

 

[Rebels57]

Dillabaugh is a name we can have fun with if we have to.

Then again, I don't know what he' supposed to do with a coach who treats an old Elliott and a Faberge Neuvy like they're Tonka Trucks. I guess we see what happens with Stolarz.

I haven't seen a goalie under his watch make a single adjustment. Mason got actively worse after he replaced Reese. Dunno. Show me something Kim. He's low on my chopping block though.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I haven't seen a goalie under his watch make a single adjustment. Mason got actively worse after he replaced Reese. Dunno. Show me something Kim. He's low on my chopping block though.

Hard to see it as a loss. I'm waiting to see how the Stolarz thing goes

 

[deadhead]

RE: Hakstol and Shots from Defensemen

Heat maps are great for showing relative to league average, but in this case I would rather look at how they compare to individual teams so we can see the extremes of prioritization.
TLDR; Jeff likey.

Now go back and rank thos teams by ES goals scored.
Seems that defensive shooting isn't negatively correlated with scoring, it seems to be a bit random.


PHL #9
NYI #6
SJ #13
CAL #26
EDM #16
CBJ #10
STL #19
OTT #24
TB #2
PIT #5
NASH #12
VAN #29
CAR #22
CHI #20
WASH #8
NYR #25
WIN #4
COL #15
ARZ #27
ANH #17
DAL #23
VGK #1
NJ #21
FLA #14
BUF #31
BOS #7
MON #30
LA #18
DET #28
TOR #3
MINN #11

Notice that Minnesota has the fewest shots taken by D-men, and the Flyers outscored them at ES. Go figure.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Now go back and rank thos teams by ES goals scored.
Seems that defensive shooting isn't negatively correlated with scoring, it seems to be a bit random.


PHL #9
NYI #6
SJ #13
CAL #26
EDM #16
CBJ #10
STL #19
OTT #24
TB #2
PIT #5
NASH #12
VAN #29
CAR #22
CHI #20
WASH #8
NYR #25
WIN #4
COL #15
ARZ #27
ANH #17
DAL #23
VGK #1
NJ #21
FLA #14
BUF #31
BOS #7
MON #30
LA #18
DET #28
TOR #3
MINN #11

Notice that Minnesota has the fewest shots taken by D-men, and the Flyers outscored them at ES. Go figure.

The problem isn't so much shots from dmen, but the fact that shots from forwards are farther out too.

But nothing symbolizes Hakstol Hockey more than Hagg and MacD firing weak wristers from orbit with no netfront presence, after the forwards fought to set those "chances" up.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Now go back and rank thos teams by ES goals scored.
Seems that defensive shooting isn't negatively correlated with scoring, it seems to be a bit random.

Notice that Minnesota has the fewest shots taken by D-men, and the Flyers outscored them at ES. Go figure.

Right. I don't think it's a black and white issue, nor would I use something like that over a number of other metrics to illustrate overall Shot Quality. They've actually been generating a higher quality of Shots this year. Last time I looked, it was their biggest ES plus.

I'm not positive since it was ~6 weeks ago, but IIRC I did that because there was some discussion as to whether or not there were other teams that emphasized those types of Shots as much.

 

[David St Hubbins]

 

[FLYguy3911]

Does anyone track average shot distance anymore?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Does anyone track average shot distance anymore?

Yep. Quickest free way to access individual distances is probably these:

Tableau Public