Flyers Advanced Analysis Thread (2018-2019)

Discussion in 'Philadelphia Flyers' started by Beef Invictus, Oct 16, 2018.

  1. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to nerding at numbers. Share your sources, discuss who is most effective in the nerdstats, or the general value of such metrics. I'll start off with some sites that contain useful info; I know there are more, but I had these off the top of my head. I can update the OP with others.

    ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization
    2017-18 NHL Skater Advanced Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
    Corsica | Home

    Natural Stat Trick
    Fantasy Hockey Line Production | Which NHL Lines Score the Most Goals | leftwinglock.com
    Evolving-Hockey

    Player Passing: Tableau Public
    http://hockeyviz.com/
    OffsideReview
    PhancyStats
    Prospect-Stats
    Prospects and Draft
    Sean Tierney: Tableau Public
    CJ Turturo: Tableau Public
    Bill Comeau: Tableau Public
    Colin Cudmore: Tableau Public
    Mitchell Brown: Tableau Public


    A primer for the newly initiated nerds:

    An advanced stat primer: Understanding basic hockey metrics


    Because @Ghosts Beer would want me to:

    Analysis | Stop using Corsi to assess NHL teams. There are better options available.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  2. Ghosts Beer

    Ghosts Beer Registered User

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    Worthwhile post and better than our bickering in the other thread. And I certainly agree with the premise of the last article, which I have read before.
     
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  3. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    I regret not naming this the @Appleyard Playground.
     
  4. deadhead

    deadhead Registered User

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  5. Ted Brown

    Ted Brown Registered User

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  6. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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  7. Ted Brown

    Ted Brown Registered User

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    Yeah it was very odd that it defaulted them all.
     
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  8. FLYguy3911

    FLYguy3911 Registered User

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  9. JojoTheWhale

    JojoTheWhale Everything matters. Sponsor

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  10. MacDonald4MVP

    MacDonald4MVP Registered User

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    Obligatory WATCH THE DANK GAME NERD!
     
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  11. MacDonald4MVP

    MacDonald4MVP Registered User

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    Obligatory WATCH THE DANK GAME NERD!
     
  12. HakstolisAFartVacuum

    HakstolisAFartVacuum 9 17 32 14 55 4

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    This thread is a jort ripper
     
  13. deadhead

    deadhead Registered User

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    Wonder if there's a source for this:

    "Rebounds are a problem because they are very dangerous, they are converted to goals about a quarter of the time, 4 times as dangerous as a non-rebound shot."

    There are two ways of handling rebounds, kick them way out or glove/smother the puck.
    My problem with Elliott this year is he seems incapable of either strategy, and leaves a lot of dangerous rebounds near the net.
     
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  14. JojoTheWhale

    JojoTheWhale Everything matters. Sponsor

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    I know I've read a source for that rate. When I get some time to dig through, I will send it to you.
     
  15. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    Or then there's 2010 Michael Leighton, whose rebound control was so bad it broke convention. Boucher had better rebound control and it actually screwed him because it left pucks on the doorstep. Meanwhile, Leighton's rebound control was absolutely nonexistent, and pucks bounced so far off of him that they worked as breakout passes :laugh:. It was baffling how pucks could bounce so far off his chest, where goalies are usually trying to swallow up shots.

    It's hard to slam a rebound home when it's flying off the goalie at high velocity.
     
  16. FlyersMania2

    FlyersMania2 #FireHakstol

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    The Leighton method led to shut outs or blow outs. No in between
     
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  17. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    Yeah, there was the issue where if he had to move a limb to make a save the save likely wasn't happening.

    That 2010 squad once Lavi got things rolling was a bit of a stat anomaly as I recall. For instance we didn't do well at Corsi; but that makes sense because why wouldn't you take every possible shot at Leighton? And on top of that, we did well at keeping shot quality low. Even Carter destroyed that Devil in a game when he shot from the slot, because they had to play like they had an empty net.
     
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  18. LegionOfDoom91

    LegionOfDoom91 Registered User

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    Man I miss those teams these days.
     
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  19. MacDonald4MVP

    MacDonald4MVP Registered User

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    There were so many character wins where I would be so pumped by end of the game i had trouble sleeping.
     
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  20. deadhead

    deadhead Registered User

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    Actually, I can't remember where I read it, but some goalies actually use "wild rebounds" as a strategy, that is, they want to kick rebounds out far from the net because then they're out of harms way and it's a 50/50 battle for puck possession (where it ends up is a bit random). It's the rebound near the net that's dangerous - the Elliott special.
     
  21. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    Yeah, I've seen Price send rebounds hard into the corners and boards. The difference with Leighton was that these things were going out in front.
     
  22. JojoTheWhale

    JojoTheWhale Everything matters. Sponsor

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    It was actually another article from the same writer. The relevant section is under "Rebounds Carry Weight."

    Rebound Control - Advanced Goaltending Metrics

    That article is still my favorite hockey piece from the last few years.
     
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  23. Rebels57

    Rebels57 Registered User

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    There was nothing better than going down 2-0 early, Lavy timeout and bench tirade, boom 2 points.
     
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  24. wankstifier

    wankstifier Registered User

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    Got me into hockey. Now I regret the commitment
     
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  25. Beef Invictus

    Beef Invictus Fugu Invicta

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    I've been pondering this, and I'm a really huge fan of tracking rebounds that become shots.
     
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