Flyers Advanced Analysis Thread (2018-2019)

[Beef Invictus]

I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to nerding at numbers. Share your sources, discuss who is most effective in the nerdstats, or the general value of such metrics. I'll start off with some sites that contain useful info; I know there are more, but I had these off the top of my head. I can update the OP with others.

ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization
2017-18 NHL Skater Advanced Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
Corsica | Home

Natural Stat Trick
Fantasy Hockey Line Production | Which NHL Lines Score the Most Goals | leftwinglock.com
Evolving-Hockey

Player Passing: Tableau Public
http://hockeyviz.com/
OffsideReview
PhancyStats
Prospect-Stats
Prospects and Draft
Sean Tierney: Tableau Public
CJ Turturo: Tableau Public
Bill Comeau: Tableau Public
Colin Cudmore: Tableau Public
Mitchell Brown: Tableau Public


A primer for the newly initiated nerds:

An advanced stat primer: Understanding basic hockey metrics


Because @Ghosts Beer would want me to:

Analysis | Stop using Corsi to assess NHL teams. There are better options available.

Click to read more...

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I thought it might be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to nerding at numbers. Share your sources, discuss who is most effective in the nerdstats, or the general value of such metrics. I'll start off with some sites that contain useful info; I know there are more, but I had these off the top of my head. I can update the OP with others.

ShiftChart - Hockey Shift Data Visualization
2017-18 NHL Skater Advanced Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
Corsica | Home

A primer for the newly initiated nerds:

An advanced stat primer: Understanding basic hockey metrics


Because @Ghosts Beer would want me to:

Analysis | Stop using Corsi to assess NHL teams. There are better options available.

Worthwhile post and better than our bickering in the other thread. And I certainly agree with the premise of the last article, which I have read before.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I regret not naming this the @Appleyard Playground.

 

[deadhead]

natural stat trick
Natural Stat Trick

Left Wing Lock (line production)
Fantasy Hockey Line Production | Which NHL Lines Score the Most Goals | leftwinglock.com

Evolving Hockey (GAR, etc)
Evolving-Hockey

 

[TB87]

http://hockeyviz.com/

OffsideReview

PhancyStats

Prospect-Stats

Prospects and Draft

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

 

[Beef Invictus]

http://hockeyviz.com/

OffsideReview

PhancyStats

Prospect-Stats

Prospects and Draft

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Tableau Public

Thanks, I'll get these in the OP when I can. It's a shame the site defaulted all of those to Tableau Public, I'll have to see what can be done with formatting to make them clearer.

@deadhead links have already been added.

This should become a handy one-stop shop.

 

[TB87]

Thanks, I'll get these in the OP when I can. It's a shame the site defaulted all of those to Tableau Public, I'll have to see what can be done with formatting to make them clearer.

@deadhead links have already been added.

This should become a handy one-stop shop.

Yeah it was very odd that it defaulted them all.

 

[FLYguy3911]

https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2015/10/introducing-nhl-expected/

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I can add more later, but no one does better or more interesting Goalie stuff than Cole Anderson:

CrowdScout Game Theory - Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Obligatory WATCH THE DANK GAME NERD!

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Obligatory WATCH THE DANK GAME NERD!

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

This thread is a jort ripper

 

[deadhead]

I can add more later, but no one does better or more interesting Goalie stuff than Cole Anderson:

CrowdScout Game Theory - Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis

Wonder if there's a source for this:

"Rebounds are a problem because they are very dangerous, they are converted to goals about a quarter of the time, 4 times as dangerous as a non-rebound shot."

There are two ways of handling rebounds, kick them way out or glove/smother the puck.
My problem with Elliott this year is he seems incapable of either strategy, and leaves a lot of dangerous rebounds near the net.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Wonder if there's a source for this:

"Rebounds are a problem because they are very dangerous, they are converted to goals about a quarter of the time, 4 times as dangerous as a non-rebound shot."

There are two ways of handling rebounds, kick them way out or glove/smother the puck.
My problem with Elliott this year is he seems incapable of either strategy, and leaves a lot of dangerous rebounds near the net.

I know I've read a source for that rate. When I get some time to dig through, I will send it to you.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Wonder if there's a source for this:

"Rebounds are a problem because they are very dangerous, they are converted to goals about a quarter of the time, 4 times as dangerous as a non-rebound shot."

There are two ways of handling rebounds, kick them way out or glove/smother the puck.
My problem with Elliott this year is he seems incapable of either strategy, and leaves a lot of dangerous rebounds near the net.

Or then there's 2010 Michael Leighton, whose rebound control was so bad it broke convention. Boucher had better rebound control and it actually screwed him because it left pucks on the doorstep. Meanwhile, Leighton's rebound control was absolutely nonexistent, and pucks bounced so far off of him that they worked as breakout passes . It was baffling how pucks could bounce so far off his chest, where goalies are usually trying to swallow up shots.

It's hard to slam a rebound home when it's flying off the goalie at high velocity.

 

[FlyersMania2]

Or then there's 2010 Michael Leighton, whose rebound control was so bad it broke convention. Boucher had better rebound control and it actually screwed him because it left pucks on the doorstep. Meanwhile, Leighton's rebound control was absolutely nonexistent, and pucks bounced so far off of him that they worked as breakout passes . It was baffling how pucks could bounce so far off his chest, where goalies are usually trying to swallow up shots.

It's hard to slam a rebound home when it's flying off the goalie at high velocity.

The Leighton method led to shut outs or blow outs. No in between

 

[Beef Invictus]

The Leighton method led to shut outs or blow outs. No in between

Yeah, there was the issue where if he had to move a limb to make a save the save likely wasn't happening.

That 2010 squad once Lavi got things rolling was a bit of a stat anomaly as I recall. For instance we didn't do well at Corsi; but that makes sense because why wouldn't you take every possible shot at Leighton? And on top of that, we did well at keeping shot quality low. Even Carter destroyed that Devil in a game when he shot from the slot, because they had to play like they had an empty net.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Man I miss those teams these days.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Man I miss those teams these days.

There were so many character wins where I would be so pumped by end of the game i had trouble sleeping.

 

[deadhead]

Or then there's 2010 Michael Leighton, whose rebound control was so bad it broke convention. Boucher had better rebound control and it actually screwed him because it left pucks on the doorstep. Meanwhile, Leighton's rebound control was absolutely nonexistent, and pucks bounced so far off of him that they worked as breakout passes . It was baffling how pucks could bounce so far off his chest, where goalies are usually trying to swallow up shots.

It's hard to slam a rebound home when it's flying off the goalie at high velocity.

Actually, I can't remember where I read it, but some goalies actually use "wild rebounds" as a strategy, that is, they want to kick rebounds out far from the net because then they're out of harms way and it's a 50/50 battle for puck possession (where it ends up is a bit random). It's the rebound near the net that's dangerous - the Elliott special.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Actually, I can't remember where I read it, but some goalies actually use "wild rebounds" as a strategy, that is, they want to kick rebounds out far from the net because then they're out of harms way and it's a 50/50 battle for puck possession (where it ends up is a bit random). It's the rebound near the net that's dangerous.

Yeah, I've seen Price send rebounds hard into the corners and boards. The difference with Leighton was that these things were going out in front.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Wonder if there's a source for this:

It was actually another article from the same writer. The relevant section is under "Rebounds Carry Weight."

Rebound Control - Advanced Goaltending Metrics

That article is still my favorite hockey piece from the last few years.

 

[Rebels57]

There were so many character wins where I would be so pumped by end of the game i had trouble sleeping.

There was nothing better than going down 2-0 early, Lavy timeout and bench tirade, boom 2 points.

 

[wankstifier]

Man I miss those teams these days.

Got me into hockey. Now I regret the commitment

 

[Beef Invictus]

It was actually another article from the same writer. The relevant section is under "Rebounds Carry Weight."

Rebound Control - Advanced Goaltending Metrics

That article is still my favorite hockey piece from the last few years.

I've been pondering this, and I'm a really huge fan of tracking rebounds that become shots.