***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

[faulkingdynamic]

Its pretty unfair to say that Staal is paying the price for his linemates. You seem to be scoring plus/minus like goals and assists(actions within the 10 seconds before the goal is scored). Staal should have at least been a -2 in the Philly game for missed stick checks instead of skating and allowing plays to develop that turned into goals. Regardless of how logically we are trying to adjust +/-, a guy cant be on the ice for 4 goals and still be even. It just doesnt compute. Im not picking on the concept of this thread just how some of it is being applied. It looks to me like some players are allowed to play through a gaff and still stay even while other guys are an automatic minus if they make a small mistake... which is bound to happen especially when comparing dmen and forwards.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Generally speaking, I just look at the point prior to the goal where the defense is "set" and everyone is doing what they are supposed to be doing. From that point forward, I look at which players were involved in allowing the opposing team to play a role in scoring.

Inevitably, this will lead to inconsistencies. A great deal of whether a goal is scored or not, is circumstantial. For example, if Staal fails to clear the zone or intercept a pass, it extends the defensive sequence beyond its shelf life... but as long as everyone else is in position, the defense will hold. Minuses start happening when a player's gaffe leads directly to the goal-against. Otherwise, there's not a sequential basis for handing out minuses... and things would get really arbitrary. The alternative method, a truly complete plus-minus system, would be to review the entire game film and account for all errors. I'd love to do that, but it's not feasible.

As far as Staal is concerned, I think if you look back over our GAs, he has in fact paid a price for his teammates quite often. First GA of the season, he came off the bench just as things went completely haywire with a turnover and missed assignments. He arrived into the play just as the puck went in the net, and I'm sure a lot of people threw their remote and cursed Staal for not backchecking hard enough.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

As far as Staal is concerned, I think if you look back over our GAs, he has in fact paid a price for his teammates quite often. First GA of the season, he came off the bench just as things went completely haywire with a turnover and missed assignments. He arrived into the play just as the puck went in the net, and I'm sure a lot of people threw their remote and cursed Staal for not backchecking hard enough.

Looking back, I disagree with that rating. The line change was happened as the play entered the zone, and if the goal was scored on the rush, then absolutely, he couldn't have been blamed for that.

But the play developed enough to where Skinner (who was farther down the ice than the bench is) could get back and contribute defensively. Staal on that play, I believe, was hanging out by the blueline waiting for the breakout pass. It wasn't until Stamkos picked up the rebound out front that he realized they were still a threat to score and made his weak defensive attempt.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Looking back, I disagree with that rating. The line change was happened as the play entered the zone, and if the goal was scored on the rush, then absolutely, he couldn't have been blamed for that.

But the play developed enough to where Skinner (who was farther down the ice than the bench is) could get back and contribute defensively. Staal on that play, I believe, was hanging out by the blueline waiting for the breakout pass. It wasn't until Stamkos picked up the rebound out front that he realized they were still a threat to score and made his weak defensive attempt.

The Hurricanes had 4 guys below the faceoff dots and 3 of them were standing around an uncontested loose puck... why would Staal crash the net there? If anything, it was the right move for him to stay up high and keep the defensemen from applying too much pressure on the breakout (which never happened because all 3 Canes basically ran into each other and gave Stamkos and St. Louis of all people a 2-on-0 in front of the net).

This is exactly the kind of thing I mean. Staal arrives at the last second with a little pokecheck, so it's his minus... except he had nothing to do with the gaffe that created the goal. That puck was buried the second it landed on Stamkos' stick while 3 Canes sailed by.

Two more good examples in the Philly game. Why should it be Staal's minus when Gleason and Allen get beaten while Staal covers the point? Why should it be Staal's minus when McBain and Pitkanen get torched on a 2-on-2? Just the plays we've talked about here gave him a minus-3 officially, and he had absolutely nothing to do with the sequence of events leading to the goals. Even a Selke caliber player would've been minus-3.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

But all players are caught in that type of situation, not just Staal. Gleason's gaff for Philly's first goal, 4 other players on the ice couldn't do anything about that. So to claim that Staal's +/- is so bad because of the players he's playing with doesn't hold water. It may be a factor, but it's a factor in the +/- of every player.

I'd say the biggest reason Staal's +/- looks so awful is because he's not producing at even-strength. And even in this subjective +/-, he's not factoring in a lot of goals.

 

[tarheelhockey]

But all players are caught in that type of situation, not just Staal. Gleason's gaff for Philly's first goal, 4 other players on the ice couldn't do anything about that. So to claim that Staal's +/- is so bad because of the players he's playing with doesn't hold water. It may be a factor, but it's a factor in the +/- of every player.

This is true, but the big difference with Staal is that he's drawing top matchups and putting in a full 2 minutes more ice time than any other forward. I blame a lot of this on Maurice and his "ride your star to the point of exhaustion" strategy, not to mention his "bench your energy line in the 3rd period even if they're the best thing you've got going" strategy.

But at the end of the day, Maurice-related criticism aside, Staal is out there at times when those plays are most likely to end up in the net. Gleason made that god-awful turnover to the 2nd-leading scorer in the league. The Tampa play gave a free open-net chance to Stamkos/St. Louis. If an identical play ended up on the stick of a Jody Shelley or Blair Jones, it might not actually turn into a goal (which is again part of the arbitrary nature of +/-).

In that respect, the top-line guys are going to hurt worse than others (see Skinner, Pitkanen, Ruutu, LaRose) and Staal's numbers will suffer most of all, as a result of line-matching. Even if Staal carries his weight (which he hasn't entirely), a goofball play by his linemate is quite likely to give him a minus rather than just going by the boards.

I'd say the biggest reason Staal's +/- looks so awful is because he's not producing at even-strength. And even in this subjective +/-, he's not factoring in a lot of goals.

That's also completely true. No disagreement there whatsoever.

 

[Lazyking]

But all players are caught in that type of situation, not just Staal. Gleason's gaff for Philly's first goal, 4 other players on the ice couldn't do anything about that. So to claim that Staal's +/- is so bad because of the players he's playing with doesn't hold water. It may be a factor, but it's a factor in the +/- of every player.

I'd say the biggest reason Staal's +/- looks so awful is because he's not producing at even-strength. And even in this subjective +/-, he's not factoring in a lot of goals.

Yes, I just think it shows Staal hasn't been as bad defensively as numbers would indicate but actually Chad is making more plays then Staal... in fact, everyone on the team is except maybe boychuk

 

[Blueline Bomber]

The reason I don't buy that is Gleason and Allen are usually out against the same players that Staal is. Sutter's been out there against the top competition for most of the 10 games now. Their +/- isn't suffering nearly as badly as Staal's.

Sure, Staal playing 30 minutes a night will cause him to be out in more goals against, simply playing the numbers game. But I don't see it being the reason for such a large disparity between his +/- and the rest of the team's. It may be a small factor in it, but Staal's production at even strength and his lax defensive play for a good stretch of games are bigger factors.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Looking at the overall chart, Staal only has one "plus" on the season. One. That's staggeringly bad for 11 games into the season.

Based on memory, I'd say Skinner has been our worst defensive forward this season.

 

[faulkingdynamic]

Unfortunately Staal is only playing 20 minutes per game so that reasoning is baseless in terms of this season. With the OT games it dips into the 19 per 60 range.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The reason I don't buy that is Gleason and Allen are usually out against the same players that Staal is. Sutter's been out there against the top competition for most of the 10 games now. Their +/- isn't suffering nearly as badly as Staal's.

Frankly, those three players have been a lot better than Staal so far. I'm not at all defending Staal's play, just pointing out that he hasn't earned anything as extreme as a -13.

Sure, Staal playing 30 minutes a night will cause him to be out in more goals against, simply playing the numbers game. But I don't see it being the reason for such a large disparity between his +/- and the rest of the team's. It may be a small factor in it, but Staal's production at even strength and his lax defensive play for a good stretch of games are bigger factors.

I guess one of the nice things about this thread's format is that we can actually go back and spot exactly which plays are disputable. Here are the ones I would consider "unfair" minuses to Staal.

Tampa 2nd 5:19 St. Louis (Stamkos) - Again, I don't see how this can be pinned on Staal given the epicfail in front of the net while he was at the point.
Washington 2nd 14:28 Semin (Carlson) - Defensive coverage blown wide open at the blueline, Staal had nothing to do with it.
New Jersey 1st 3:59 Parise (Elias, Sykora) - Staal had been on the forecheck and was covering the back side of the play.
New Jersey 3rd 6:06 Kovalchuk (Josefson, Palmieri) - Puck was turned over behind Staal, on the backcheck Stewart ended up wandering out of position leaving Kovalchuk all alone.
Boston 3rd 4:07 Seguin (Horton, McQuaid) - Ward basically waved at the puck as it went by.
Buffalo 1st 6:58 Vanek (Leopold) - Staal had the backside covered.
Buffalo 3rd 17:39 Stafford (Myers, Sekera) - Again, Staal had the backside covered.
Winnipeg 2nd 6:07 Ladd (Wheeler, Bogosian) - This is the one that bounced over Boucher into the net.
Philadelphia 3rd 0:39 Jagr (Giroux) - Hijinks on the breakout while Staal was up-ice.
Philadelphia 3rd 7:36 Giroux (Hartnell, Timonen) - Just an overall horrible play by McBain.
Philadelphia 3rd 12:17 Jagr (Hartnell) - Hard to say here, but I'm pretty sure he got Giroux's stick. Wasn't his fault McBain and Tlusty couldn't contain Jagr.

So by my count, that's at least 11 goals against where Staal was either on the backside, down ice on a rush, or otherwise occupied when the goal was scored. We've only allowed 24 against as a team! Almost half the time we allow an ES goal, Staal gets a minus for no reason... and that doesn't factor in when he does earn it with a crappy defensive play. That's just a crazy statistical trend.

 

[NorthStar4Canes]

Almost half the time we allow an ES goal, Staal gets a minus for no reason... and that doesn't factor in when he does earn it with a crappy defensive play. That's just a crazy statistical trend.

It's really not that crazy. +/- is also a function of ES offensive production. Staal has no ES goals and no ES assists after 11 games, and has rarely been on the ice when any ES goals-for have occured. There's nothing to soften the defensive hits to his rating whether he was directly to blame or not.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It's really not that crazy. +/- is also a function of ES offensive production. Staal has no ES goals and no ES assists after 11 games, and has rarely been on the ice when any ES goals-for have occured. There's nothing to soften the defensive hits to his rating whether he was directly to blame or not.

I completely agree. IMO, his lack of offensive production is much more concerning than his defensive lapses (which aren't trivial either).

For perspective, Staal currently leads ALL players in Team GA while on the ice with 21. He also leads all players in ES Team GA with 17. The next-worst forward is... Jeff Skinner with 13. Michalek, Spezza, Nash and Giroux each have 12.

So, again for perspective, Staal has been on the ice NOT involved in the play for nearly as many ES-GA as the next highest guy in the league, before you count in the several times that he actually did have a hand in the defensive breakdown.

Just speculating here, but that has to be a source of frustration for him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 12 vs Tampa Bay
4-2 W

I don't see a full highlight clip online just yet, so I'll post this instead.


ES GOALS FOR
2nd 0:22 Skinner (Pitkanen)
+1 Pitkanen for the keep-in
+1 Skinner because he's got a nice smile
Jokinen, Ruutu, McBain even.

2nd 10:38 Skinner (Jokinen)
+1 Jokinen for the takeaway and leading the 2-on-1
+1 Skinner for dimples
Ruutu, Kaberle, Harrison even.

3rd 15:10 LaRose (Tlusty)
+1 Tlusty for seizing on the loose puck
+1 LaRose for dreaminess
Staal, Pitkanen, Harrison even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 15:14 Purcell (Bergeron, Malone)
-1 Harrison for turnover on a chance to clear
-1 Dwyer for failure to block the point shot
-1 Sutter for overplaying the shot and rather than picking up his man
I can't give Allen a minus there in good conscience. He made a good block and the puck went straight to Purcell out of dumb luck. If there's disagreement I'll mark it as MOE.
Allen, Tlusty even.

14:16 Connolly (St. Louis, Lecavalier)
-1 Ruutu, failure to get to a loose puck on the right boards
-1 Brent, torched by St. Louis
I wouldn't give Gleason or Allen a minus there as they were in position. Again, please speak up if you disagree.
Skinner even.

Totals for the game:
+2 Skinner
+1 Jokinen
+1 LaRose
+1 Pitkanen
+1 Tlusty
-1 Brent
-1 Dwyer
-1 Harrison
-1 Sutter
-1 Ruutu

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 13 vs Washington
5-1 L



ES GOALS FOR
1st 3:26 Stewart (Harrison, Skinner)
+1 Ruutu for the faceoff win
+1 Skinner for the feed and screen
+1 Harrison for the shot that got through
+1 Stewart for the tip
Kaberle even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 1:28 Halpern (Knuble, Alzner)
-1 Pitkanen for the turnover
-1 McBain for inexplicably chasing the puck and leaving Halpern alone
-1 Staal for getting caught in no man's land
LaRose, Tlusty even.

2nd 2:37 Brouwer (Johansson, Eakin)
-1 McBain for a seriously bad pinch
-1 Tlusty, gotta get back faster on that transition
-1 Pitkanen for going down and still failing to block the shot.
Staal, LaRose even.

3rd 10:49 Eakin (Semin)
-1 Pitkanen for an even worse pinch than McBain's
McBain even, as well as the unidentifiable forwards.

3rd 15:52 Backstrom (Ovechkin, Brouwer)
-1 McBain for a terrible turnover
-1 Allen for failing to block the pass
Sutter, Tlusty, Dwyer even.

Totals for the game:

+1 Harrison
+1 Ruutu
+1 Skinner
+1 Stewart
-1 Allen
-1 Staal
-1 Tlusty
-3 McBain
-3 Pitkanen

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 14 vs Dallas
5-2 L



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 5:20 Nystrom (Fiddler, Souray)
-1 Tlusty for getting caught up ice, leaving Ruutu and Stewart out to dry
-1 Joslin for overplaying toward the middle
Kaberle did a horrible job covering the RW, but got lucky and stays even. Ruutu and Stewart also even.

1st 19:32 Benn (Eriksson, Ryder)
-1 Stewart for failing to cover his lane, which was what got that rush started
-1 Harrison for losing the corner battle
-1 Tlusty for a terrible job covering the slot
Ruutu, Pitkanen even.

2nd 3:48 Ryder (Eriksson, Souray)
-1 Joslin for an overall brutal shift
-1 LaRose for getting outhustled to the puck, keeping that play alive
-1 Kaberle for standing there staring instead of reacting
Staal, Skinner even.

Totals for the game:

-1 Harrison
-1 Kaberle
-1 LaRose
-1 Stewart
-2 Joslin
-2 Tlusty

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I know it's not even strength, but I'd give Kaberle another minus on the shorthanded goal by Benn. Is there a worse defenseman at taking away the pass than him?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Is there a worse defenseman at taking away the pass than him?

That's a good question. He really is terrible at blocking lanes. Especially considering his experience level and paycheck.

It was a tough decision but I decided not to include special teams at all. Too many variables going on that screw up the consistency of the numbers.

Even though, on second thought, it might be helpful at some point to go back and look at our PP and SH goals for and against to see who are the strong and weak links.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Catching up...

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 15 @ New Jersey
3-2 L



ES GOALS FOR
3rd 6:06 Pitkanen (McBain, Boychuk)
+1 Ruutu for the good forecheck
+1 Ponikarovsky for winning the board battle
+1 Boychuk for finding McBain
+1 McBain for the good pinch
+1 Pitkanen for a good look to the front of the net
5-man goal!

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 10:56 Zubrus (Volchenkov)
-1 Stewart for a crappy outlet pass while looking at his skates
-1 Brent for diving without a good reason
Allen, Gleason, Dalpe even.

3rd 2:37 Sykora (Elias)
-1 Sutter for losing the draw as cleanly as possible.
Pitkanen, McBain, Dwyer, Tlusty even.

3rd 16:41 Henrique (Zubrus, Fayne)
-1 Gleason for getting flat-out beaten on the boards
-1 Dwyer for the same reason, but even less excusable as he wasn't even being checked.
-1 Allen for first giving Henrique the post, then deflecting the puck over Cam's pad.
Tlusty, Sutter even.

Totals for the game:
+1 Boychuk
+1 McBain
+1 Pitkanen
+1 Ponikarovsky
+1 Ruutu
-1 Allen
-1 Brent
-1 Dwyer
-1 Gleason
-1 Stewart
-1 Sutter

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 16 @ New York Rangers
5-1 L



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 16:22 Ponikarovsky (Boychuk, McBain)
+1 Ponikarovsky for the legwork to make good after a turnover
+1 McBain and
+1 Boychuk for the subtle but brilliant touch-pass play to set up Poni
Staal, Pitkanen, Tlusty even.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 9:43 Avery (Woywitka)
-1 Allen for the ugly blunder at the blue line
-1 Gleason for the ill-timed dive when he would've been better off just skating hard
Tlusty, Brent, Stewart even.

3rd 10:56 Dubinsky (Callahan, Boyle)
-1 Allen for the ugly poke check off the faceoff
-1 Ponikarovsky for sharing in Allen's failage.
Staal, Boychuk, Gleason even.

3rd 13:47 Callahan (Sauer, Dubinsky)
-1 Ruutu for getting owned by Dubinsky on the boards
-1 Pitkanen for failing to take care of the rebound
-1 Skinner for chasing Sauer in vain instead of covering the eventual goal scorer
Jokinen, Gleason even. Gleason was kind of involved but I can't pinpoint anything he really did wrong.

3rd 18:26 Richards (unassisted)
This one's entirely on Cam.
Brent, LaRose, Stewart, Harrison, Kaberle even.

Totals for the game:
+1 Boychuk
+1 McBain
-1 Gleason
-1 Pitkanen
-1 Ruutu
-1 Skinner
-2 Allen

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 17 vs Pittsburgh
5-3 W



ES GOALS FOR
1st 1:22 Skinner (Jokinen, Kaberle)
+1 Skinner and honestly, it was all him. Jokinen's "pass" should have been a turnover.
Jokinen, Ruutu, Kaberle, Joslin even.

2nd 15:51 Ruutu (Skinner, Jokinen)
+1 Skinner for going into beast mode with that deke and pass
+1 Ruutu for burying a deceptively tough shot
+1 Jokinen for a beauty of a break-in pass around Orpik
+1 Kaberle who made a nice pass to get the rush started with speed
Joslin even.

2nd 19:03 Ruutu (Skinner)
+1 Skinner for the best forechecking I've ever seen from him
+1 Ruutu for the backhand
Jokinen, Allen, McBain even.

3rd 15:26 Staal (Gleason, LaRose)
+1 LaRose for making the right decisions to pass and shoot
+1 Staal for putting a sweet merciful end to that drought.
+1 Gleason for a very clever screen.
Brent, Allen even.

3rd 17:30 LaRose (Staal, Harrison)
+1 LaRose for doing what he does best
+1 Staal for the beauty of a cross-ice pass
Harrison, Gleason, Sutter even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
3rd 1:40 Staal (Malkin, Neal)
-1 Harrison for looking pretty weak on Malkin and Neal
-1 Sutter for failing to cover his man in the high slot, not to mention some crappy board work to set up the Pens rush.
Gleason, LaRose even. Staal reluctantly even, in spite of his sloppy turnover to start the rush.

3rd 12:18 Kunitz (Dupuis)
The turnover was ugly, but an unscreened shot from the top of the circle has to be stopped by the goaltender.
Jokinen, Tlusty, Allen, Gleason even.

Totals for the game:
+3 Skinner
+2 LaRose
+2 Ruutu
+2 Staal
+1 Gleason
+1 Jokinen
+1 Kaberle
-1 Harrison
-1 Sutter

 

[tarheelhockey]

Updated through this weekend:

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Zach Boychuk | 2 | 0 | +2 | -
Tim Brent | 4 | 2 | +2 | 1
Zac Dalpe | - | - | even | -
Patrick Dwyer | 4 | 2 | +2 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 8 | 1 | +7 | -
Chad LaRose | 8 | 3 | +5 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 4 | 1 | +3 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 9 | 5 | +4 | -
Jeff Skinner | 9 | 5 | +4 | 1
Eric Staal | 3 | 5 | -2 | -
Anthony Stewart | 3 | 3 | even | -
Brandon Sutter | 5 | 4 | +1 | -
Brett Sutter | 2 | 2 | even | -
Jiri Tlusty | 5 | 4 | +1 | -
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 3 | 6 | -3 | -
Justin Faulk | - | 4 | -4 | -
Tim Gleason | 6 | 4 | +2 | -
Jay Harrison | 3 | 7 | -4 | -
Derek Joslin | - | 2 | -2 | -
Tomas Kaberle | 1 | 4 | -3 | -
Jamie McBain | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1
Joni Pitkanen | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1

It's noteworthy that Staal is the only forward left who has been directly involved in more GA than GF.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So, I felt a little unMOtivated about breaking down the details of that losing streak. But the time has come. Updates incoming.

 

[What the Faulk]

Willing to bet Tim Gleason has a lot to do with it.