***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

[tarheelhockey]

Game 78 vs Winnipeg
3-4 OTL



ES GOALS FOR

1st 11:22 Joslin (Skinner)
+1 Skinner for a really strong play behind the net
+1 Joslin for not missing

2nd 3:49 Sutter (Dwyer, Bowman)
+1 Dwyer for a great job creating offense off the forecheck
+1 Bowman, nice power move to the goal mouth
+1 Sutter, scoring the kind of dirty goal we don't get enough of.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 2:23 Antropov (Wellwood, Kane)
-1 Faulk. Not clear why he was out of position, but the defense was out of order trying to cover for him. He also had a great chance to recover and either stop the pass or block the shot, and did nothing but screen Ward. Tough rookie shift.
-1 Joslin, as he could have read the play and picked up Antropov.

2nd 10:25 Slater (Macachek, Bogosian)
-1 Stewart... what the hell was he doing exactly?
-1 Harrison... I feel like a broken record talking about this guy failing to defend 2-on-1 passes.

OT 0:16 Ladd (Bogosian)
-1 Faulk. Another tough shift.

Totals for the game

+1 Bowman
+1 Dwyer
+1 Skinner
+1 Sutter
-1 Harrison
-1 Stewart
-2 Faulk

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 79 vs New Jersey
0-5 L



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 1:44 Kovalchuk (Sykora, Zubrus)
Continuation of a PP, no changes.

2nd 3:28 Carter (Bernier, Josefson)
-1 Allen for stepping up and missing the puck
-1 Joslin, bumbling the puck into a turnover
-1 Gleason, took a risk on the poke-check and it didn't pan out for him
Stewart, Brent and ? even

2nd 17:30 Sykora (Elias)
-1 Jokinen for the clean face-off loss
Skinner, Ruutu, Faulk, Harrison even

3rd 1:15 Parise (Kovalchuk, Zajac)
-1 Staal, who got beaten up the ice so badly he wasn't even in the video frame
-1 Tlusty, who really didn't need to double-team Kovalchuk at the expense of leaving a lane wide-open down the middle
LaRose, Gleason, Allen even

Totals for the game
-1 Allen
-1 Gleason
-1 Jokinen
-1 Joslin
-1 Staal
-1 Tlusty

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 80 @ Ottawa
2-1 W



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 1:33 Sutter (Gleason)
+1 Gleason, who one-timed a turnover beautifully to start the rush
+1 Sutter for the shot
Dwyer, Bowman, Faulk even

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 19:47 Spezza (Greening, Alfredsson)
6-on-5 situation, no changes.

Totals for the game
+1 Gleason
+1 Sutter

 

[tarheelhockey]

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Drayson Bowman | 15 | 3 | +12 | 1
Zach Boychuk | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Tim Brent | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3
Zac Dalpe | 2 | 2 | even | -
Patrick Dwyer | 11 | 5 | +6 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 23 | 10 | +13 | 1
Chad LaRose | 20 | 12 | +8 | -
Riley Nash | 1 | - | +1 | -
Andreas Nodl | 8 | 3 | +5 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 9 | 5 | +4 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 27 | 10 | +17 | -
Jerome Samson | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Jeff Skinner | 26 | 12 | +14 | 1
Eric Staal | 33 | 20 | +13 | -
Anthony Stewart | 16 | 8 | +8 | 1
Brandon Sutter | 25 | 9 | +16 | -
Brett Sutter | 3 | 3 | even | -
Jiri Tlusty | 27 | 14 | +13 | 1
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 7 | 20 | -13 | 1
Justin Faulk | 7 | 22 | -15 | -
Tim Gleason | 11 | 19 | -8 | 1
Jay Harrison | 10 | 28 | -18 | -
Derek Joslin | 3 | 8 | -5 | -
Tomas Kaberle | 2 | 10| -8 | -
Jamie McBain | 17 | 25 | -8 | 2
Joni Pitkanen | 8 | 13 | -5 | 1
Bobby Sanguinetti | 1 | - | +1 | -
Jaroslav Spacek | 7 | 15 | -8 | -

ALMOST THERE...

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 81 vs Montreal
2-1 SOW



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 4:32 Geoffrion (McBain, Pitkanen)
-1 Dwyer, weak on the puck carrier entering the zone and he let the goal-scorer walk freely to a scoring position.
-1 Sutter, as the center he has to pick up on that still-stoppable play.
Harrison, Allen, Skinner even


Totals for the game
-1 Dwyer
-1 Sutter

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 82 @ Florida
1-4 L



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 4:02 Goc (Kulikov, Samuelsson)
-1 Staal, clean faceoff loss and then his man walks unimpeded to the net
-1 Harrison, derping around in the slot
Allen, Jokinen, LaRose even

1st 6:42 Madden (Kopecky, Jovanovski)
-1 McBain... good grief. So much wrong here.
-1 Staal, managed to take both defensemen out of the play there.
Pitkanen, Ruutu, Jokinen? even

3rd 18:36 Samuelsson (Garrison, Goc)
Empty net, no changes.

Totals for the game
-1 Harrison
-1 McBain
-2 Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

 

[tarheelhockey]

***FINAL RATINGS***

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Drayson Bowman | 15 | 3 | +12 | 1
Zach Boychuk | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Tim Brent | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3
Zac Dalpe | 2 | 2 | even | -
Patrick Dwyer | 11 | 6 | +5 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 23 | 10 | +13 | 1
Chad LaRose | 20 | 12 | +8 | -
Riley Nash | 1 | - | +1 | -
Andreas Nodl | 8 | 3 | +5 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 9 | 5 | +4 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 27 | 10 | +17 | -
Jerome Samson | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Jeff Skinner | 26 | 12 | +14 | 1
Eric Staal | 33 | 22 | +11 | -
Anthony Stewart | 16 | 8 | +8 | 1
Brandon Sutter | 25 | 10 | +15 | -
Brett Sutter | 3 | 3 | even | -
Jiri Tlusty | 27 | 14 | +13 | 1
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 7 | 20 | -13 | 1
Justin Faulk | 7 | 22 | -15 | -
Tim Gleason | 11 | 19 | -8 | 1
Jay Harrison | 10 | 29 | -19 | -
Derek Joslin | 3 | 8 | -5 | -
Tomas Kaberle | 2 | 10| -8 | -
Jamie McBain | 17 | 26 | -9 | 2
Joni Pitkanen | 8 | 13 | -5 | 1
Bobby Sanguinetti | 1 | - | +1 | -
Jaroslav Spacek | 7 | 15 | -8 | -

Of course by "final", I don't really mean completely unchangeable. If you happen to spot something that needs changing, please bring it up so the table can be updated.

A huge, huge "thank you" to everyone who contributed by reviewing games and making suggestions for changes. I hope we can agree that the numbers are generally accurate within a margin of error of about 1-2 points per player.

I'm planning on doing some analysis of these numbers over the summer, asking questions like "how well does +/- represent real contributions?" and "how faithful to reality is the 2-assist system?". If anyone wants to use them for other purposes, feel free.

 

[Zombie Mike Murphy]

I did a normalization run on the final numbers.

These are adjusted based on playing 1200 ES minutes/year. My goal was to adjust for TOI. I couldn't find good Hurricanes-only ES TOI for the players who moved mid-year

Name - Actual SPM - Actual ES TOI - Adjusted SPM
Bowman 12 458 31.4
Boychuk 1 130 9.2
Brent 9 693 15.6
Dalpe 0 138 0
Dwyer 5 957 6.3
Jokinen 13 1071 14.6
LaRose 8 644 14.9
Nash 1 45 26.7
Nodl 5 N/A
Ponikarovsky 4 N/A
Ruutu 17 1003 20.3
Samson 2 176 13.6
Skinner 14 962 17.5
Staal 11 1350 9.8
Stewart 8 597 16.1
Brandon Sutter 15 1198 15
Brett Sutter 0 109 0
Tlusty 13 1032 15.1

Allen -13 1355 -11.5
Faulk -15 1187 -15.2
Gleason -8 1460 -6.6
Harrison -19 1264 -18
Joslin -5 418 -14.4
McBain -9 1259 -8.6
Pitkanen -5 501 -12
Sanguinetti 1 27 44.4
Spacek -8 N/A

 

[tarheelhockey]

Just curious, what's the "S" in "SPM"?

Interesting to see that Sutter played almost as much as Staal, usually in shutdown assignments, and produced 50% better results.

Also, Tim Gleason has been our best defenseman AINEC.

 

[Zombie Mike Murphy]

Subjective.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Derp. I was reading "PM" as "per minute"

 

[Theokritos]

Bumped for reasons soon to be revealed.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Bumped for reasons soon to be revealed.

Whoa... mysterious and exciting...

 

[Navin R Slavin]

How soon is "soon"?

 

[Theokritos]

How soon is "soon"?

That's part of the mystery and excitement. Just wait and you shall see.

 

[DaveG]

How soon is "soon"?

(well, not quite yet)

 

[tarheelhockey]

How soon is "soon"?

A visual representation of where we are in the process:

 

[Woodhouse]

Bumped for reasons soon to be revealed.

Stickied for reasons later to be revealed.