***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

tarheelhockey

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Game 18 vs Philadelphia
3-5 L




ES GOALS FOR

2nd 12:01 Ruutu (Jokinen, Skinner)
+1 McBain for a smart pinch to cause the initial turnover
+1 Ruutu for the finnish (lol)
+1 Skinner for playmaking
+1 Jokinen ditto

ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 1:19 Giroux (Jagr, Pronger)
-1 Harrison for jumping up on the play for no obvious reason
-1 Jokinen for not recognizing Harrison's pinch and letting Giroux behind him
-1 Skinner for a pretty awful decision to forecheck between Harrison and Jokinen
:facepalm:

1st 8:50 Talbot (Read, Voracek)
-1 McBain for an awful turnover
-1 Allen, even though he was hung out to dry somewhat by McBain, for not reading the play and getting a stick on Talbot.

2nd 2:45 Giroux (Jagr)
-1 Gleason for the rofl turnover, missed pokecheck and giving Giroux a shot from the dot.

3rd 16:09 Read (Pronger)
-1 LaRose for a turnover right in the slot to send everything back up ice
-1 Gleason for getting caught flat-footed and then failing to tie up Read
I think Harrison played that about as well as he could have, tbh.

Totals for the game:
+1 Ruutu
-1 Allen
-1 Harrison
-1 LaRose
-2 Gleason
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 19 @ Montreal
0-4 L




ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 7:15 Cammalleri (Plekanec, Price)
-1 Joslin for the atrocious pinch
-1 Boychuk for failing to stop the pass... did I detect a little stick-tap there too?
-1 Harrison for screening his own goalie on a 2-on-1 :facepalm:

2nd 6:13 Subban (Pacioretty, Desharnais)
-1 Skinner. Just watch him on that play. It kind of speaks for itself.
-1 Kaberle for getting beaten on the boards as usual
-1 Harrison for a really half-***ed attempt at protecting that lane

2nd 19:21 Moen (Gomez, Subban)
-1 Kaberle for turning over the puck as usual, then failing to block a pass as usual
-1 Dalpe for playing the kind of defense where you stand around poking at the puck
-1 Ponikarovsky for having a role in both the turnover and the poor coverage

Totals for the game:
-1 Boychuk
-1 Dalpe
-1 Joslin
-1 Ponikarovsky
-1 Skinner
-2 Harrison
-2 Kaberle
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 21 vs Toronto
3-2 W




ES GOALS FOR

1st 19:31 Harrison (Skinner, Staal)
Does anybody have a better replay on this one? I remember Skinner taking a shot and the rebound coming out to Harrison, but the replays on NHL.com and YT cut off everything before the rebound.
As it stands, +1 Harrison and +1 Skinner.

3rd 13:08 Skinner (Staal, Allen)
+1 Allen for creating the turnover and breakout
+1 Ruutu for tying up Kulemin on the breakout
+1 Staal for the assist :sarcasm:
+1 Skinner for being lucky all the time

ES GOALS AGAINST

I hadn't really thought of this before, but empty-net situations really shouldn't count toward even-strength +/-. It's a power-play at one end and a free goal at the other end. Even though Harrison could have been given a minus for screening Ward here, I'm excluding goals involving ENs moving forward, including delayed penalties once the 6th man becomes relevant to the play.

Totals for the game:

+2 Skinner
+1 Allen
+1 Harrison
+1 Ruutu
+1 Staal
 

tarheelhockey

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Ok, I'll go ahead and add Staal then. If anybody finds a replay with the full sequence, please share.

In other news, that +1 brings Staal back to even for the first time since Game 1.

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Zach Boychuk | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Tim Brent | 4 | 2 | +2 | 1
Zac Dalpe | - | 1 | -1 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 4 | 2 | +2 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 9 | 2 | +7 | -
Chad LaRose | 8 | 4 | +4 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 4 | 2 | +2 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 11 | 5 | +6 | -
Jeff Skinner | 12 | 7 | +5 | 1
Eric Staal | 5 | 5 | even | -
Anthony Stewart | 3 | 3 | even | -
Brandon Sutter | 5 | 4 | +1 | -
Brett Sutter | 2 | 2 | even | -
Jiri Tlusty | 5 | 4 | +1 | -
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 4 | 7 | -3 | -
Justin Faulk | - | 4 | -4 | -
Tim Gleason | 6 | 6 | even | -
Jay Harrison | 4 | 10 | -6 | -
Derek Joslin | - | 3 | -3 | -
Tomas Kaberle | 1 | 6 | -5 | -
Jamie McBain | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1
Joni Pitkanen | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1


There's a pattern developing here which suggests to me that +/- is a fundamentally different indicator for forwards and defensemen. Not drawing any conclusions until we get a larger sample size, but the difference is striking.
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 22 @ Philadelphia
4-2 W




ES GOALS FOR

1st 19:45 Skinner (Ruutu, Harrison)
+1 Skinner and it was 100% his goal alone.

2nd 3:37 LaRose (Kaberle, Ponikarovsky)
+1 Brent for hustling to get the turnover
+1 Poni for some good boardwork
+1 Kaberle for the kind of playmaking he's getting paid for
+1 LaRose for the finish

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 1:34 Van Riemsdyk (unassisted)
-1 Harrison, brutal failure to contain his man

Totals for the game:

+1 Brent
+1 Kaberle
+1 LaRose
+1 Ponikarovsky
+1 Skinner
-1 Harrison
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 23 vs Montreal
3-4 SOL




ES GOALS FOR

1st 0:34 Tlusty (Sutter, Faulk)
Fluke goal allowed by Price. No changes.

1st 6:00 Stewart (Brent, Brett Sutter)
+1 Brent for winning the hell out of the board battle and a great no-look pass
+1 Sutter for the presence of mind to play the puck off the top of the net
+1 Stewart for the finish

3rd 3:18 Brandon Sutter (Dwyer, Tlusty)
+1 Faulk for a very effective pass up the boards
+1 Tlusty for zone entry
+1 Dwyer for the centering pass
+1 Sutter for the finish
Harrison's short pass to start the rush doesn't earn a +1, but it's noteworthy that the 5-man unit looked great on this goal.


ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 0:27 Cammalleri (Gorges, Subban)
-1 Tlusty for a horrible shift
-1 Dwyer for overplaying the center lane on Gorges' shot

3rd 4:37 Moen (Weber, Eller)
-1 Kaberle for failure to cover Moen in any way whatsoever
-1 LaRose, beaten on the boards and then fails to stop the point shot


Totals for the game:
+1 Brent
+1 Faulk
+1 Stewart
+1 Brandon Sutter
+1 Brett Sutter
-1 Kaberle
-1 LaRose
 
Last edited:

tarheelhockey

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Game 24 vs Winnipeg
1-3 L




ES GOALS FOR

5:17 Tlusty (Brandon Sutter, McBain)
+1 Tlusty, probably deserves a +1.5
+1 McBain, nice heads-up transition play
+1 Sutter, that's a tougher pass than it looks

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 14:46 Kane (Oduya)
-1 LaRose, turned the puck over right up the middle of the ice
-1 McBain, terrible pinch

2nd 6:25 Ladd (Bogosian, Antropov)
-1 Kaberle, just flat-out beaten physically by Ladd
-1 Brett Sutter, the one-timer was set up and executed right in his area

Totals for the game:
+1 Brandon Sutter
+1 Tlusty
-1 Kaberle
-1 LaRose
-1 Brett Sutter
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 25 @ Ottawa
3-4 L




ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:03 Dwyer (Sutter, Gleason)
+1, this goal pretty much entirely on Dwyer

3rd 6:46 Staal (Pitkanen, Ruutu)
+1 McBain with a nice little pinch to keep the play alive
+1 Ruutu for the cycle
+1 Pitkanen for a bit of a lucky-break assist
+1 Staal for [insert sarcastic remark here]

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 0:55 Spezza (Gonchar, Karlsson)
-1 Gleason, WTF was that?
-1 Jokinen, ill-advised pinch up the middle that allowed Spezza to break in with speed

2nd 19:46 Rundblad (Butler, Konopka)
This should not have counted as an ESG in the scoring, as the puck was clearly in the net before the penalty expired.

3rd 12:35 Smith (Daugavins, Kuba)
-1 Staal for inexplicably letting the puck dribble through his legs
-1 Pitkanen for being up-ice for no good reason
-1 McBain for getting made to look silly on the backhand pass
Considered a -1 to Skinner out of spite for his body language while that play was alive.

Totals for the game:
+1 Dwyer
+1 Ruutu
-1 Gleason
-1 Jokinen
 

Blueline Bomber

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Does the fact that almost all the forwards are + overall and all the defensemen - overall make this system a little questionable now?
 

tarheelhockey

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Game 26 vs. Florida
1-3 L




ES GOALS FOR

11:49 Skinner (Staal, Ruutu)
+1 Skinner for chasing down the first rebound and some nice footwork on the goal
+1 Staal for the pass out of the corner

ES GOALS AGAINST

16:41 Matthias (Kopecky)
-1 Kaberle, good grief. Lazy, unforced, no-look pass in the defensive zone with 3 minutes left in a tie game? Really? The best thing is the camera is zoomed in on his face so you actually see his expression change when it dawns on him.
-1 Ruutu, regardless of Kaberle's horrendous pass you gotta get to that puck. Standing around staring after losing a board battle also doesn't help.
-1 Skinner for poor body work at the point, allowing Kopecky to make the pass.

I don't think that goal is nearly as much on Ward as some have suggested. Matthias had the puck on his tape with nobody around him and a decent amount of net to target. An NHL forward is often going to bury that unless the goalie makes a very good save.

Totals for the game:
+1 Staal
-1 Kaberle
-1 Ruutu
 

tarheelhockey

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Feb 12, 2010
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Does the fact that almost all the forwards are + overall and all the defensemen - overall make this system a little questionable now?

Almost the opposite -- I think it makes the real +/- system a little questionable. As it turns out, defensemen have a direct hand in goals-against far more often than they create goals-for, and the opposite is true of forwards (at least this is the case on the Hurricanes in the 2011-12 season). The fact that forwards can end up as minuses, and defensemen can end up as pluses, over the course of a full season is an indicator of just how extremely team-dependent the standard figures really are.

I would think that the way to make best use of the numbers in this thread is to look at the separate + and - columns and consider deviation from the norm. For example, Jay Harrison isn't as good a defensive player as his reputation would suggest, and Kaberle is damn near worthless offensively at ES. Skinner has been great offensively but really bad defensively. Jokinen has been, on balance, our most valuable forward. etc.
 

tarheelhockey

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Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Zach Boychuk | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Tim Brent | 6 | 2 | +4 | 1
Zac Dalpe | - | 1 | -1 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 6 | 3 | +3 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 9 | 3 | +6 | -
Chad LaRose | 9 | 6 | +3 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 5 | 2 | +3 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 12 | 6 | +6 | -
Jeff Skinner | 14 | 8 | +6 | 1
Eric Staal | 7 | 6 | +1 | -
Anthony Stewart | 4 | 3 | +1 | -
Brandon Sutter | 7 | 4 | +3 | -
Brett Sutter | 3 | 3 | even | -
Jiri Tlusty | 7 | 5 | +2 | -
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 4 | 7 | -3 | -
Justin Faulk | 1 | 4 | -4 | -
Tim Gleason | 6 | 7 | -1 | -
Jay Harrison | 4 | 11 | -7 | -
Derek Joslin | - | 3 | -3 | -
Tomas Kaberle | 2 | 9 | -7 | -
Jamie McBain | 7 | 9 | -2 | 1
Joni Pitkanen | 6 | 11 | -5 | 1

Just explaining a little further what I meant in the previous post. We should have a baseline expectation that forwards will be in the + range and defensemen will be in the - range, because of the nature of their jobs. What really matters is the size of the number, and also its ratio to their ES TOI.

For example, Kaberle and Harrison have both been pretty putrid defensively. Both have played about 370 minutes of ES time, and you can see from their GA that Harrison has actually been slightly more prone to mistakes. That's balanced out by Harrison's contribution on offense. But both have been pretty bad, regardless of the difference in their reputations with the fanbase (largely $$$ related).

Another interesting comparison is McBain to Joslin. McBain has played 336 minutes with a net result of -2; Joslin has played 90 minutes with a net result of -3. The conclusion should be pretty easy to draw; McBain's pace is about 5-6 times superior to Joslin's. However, that's got a lot to do with McBain's frequent contributions on offense. If we're looking only at their defense, they're much closer to equal.

That's an idea of how I could see these numbers being used. They'll become much more effective once we get into a full-season sample size.
 

tarheelhockey

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Uh. No. That's like the only parameter of +/-.

The differences between the systems are:

- Official +/- counts shorthanded goals, this system does not.
- Official +/- counts empty-net goals, this system does not.
- Official +/- counts extra-man goals, this system does not.
- Official +/- counts fluke goals, this system does not.
- Official +/- counts goals that occur immediately after a PP expires (see Ottawa game), this system gives a small buffer for the ES situation to return to normal on a practical level.

And of course the obvious, that the + and - assignments are based on actual participation in the goal rather than simply giving them to everyone on the ice.
 

tarheelhockey

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Feb 12, 2010
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Game 27 vs. NY Rangers
3-5 L




ES GOALS FOR

1st 0:35 Tlusty (Sutter)
+1 Sutter for a nice clean draw win
+1 Tlusty for the snipe

1st 19:51 Skinner (Pitkanen, Staal)
+1 Staal for another clean draw win... what's happening here!?
+1 Pitkanen for a pretty heads-up keep at the point
+1 Skinner for his Matrix-like skills

2nd 17:47 Joslin (Staal, Ruutu)
+1 Joslin not just for the goal, but for the hustle play to reverse what should have been a turnover by Ruutu.
+1 Staal for some nice body work and pass

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 8:54 McDonagh (Dubinsky, Girardi)
-1 Pitkanen...
-1 Brent, and...
-1 Tlusty, who collectively failed to adjust from PK to ES mode and properly cover the high zone.

2nd 11:50 Gaborik (Anisimov, Woywitka)
-1 Allen, failed to recognize the line change and jumped the wrong guy
-1 Joslin, cover the pass for god's sake.

2nd 13:47 Avery (Gaborik, Stepan)
-1 LaRose for lack of recognition that he needed to cover the slot.

3rd 5:42 Sauer (Boyle, Hagelin)
-1 Ponikarovsky, he had all day to intercept that pass and just poked at it lazily
-1 Kaberle, who bumps their own goalie?!? When NHL13 comes out, Kaberle's "defensive awareness" rating should be a 4.

Totals for the game:
+2 Staal
+1 Skinner
+1 Sutter
-1 Allen
-1 Brent
-1 Kaberle
-1 LaRose
-1 Ponikarovsky
 

Sasha Cares

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Sep 25, 2006
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I think this system is UNDER playing the importance that a Center has defensively. Not enough - when they aren't getting back into the play defensively. Staal has probably been the worst defensive 1st line Center in the league this year but he's even in your system.
 

Finlandia WOAT

js7.4x8fnmcf5070124
May 23, 2010
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I think this system is UNDER playing the importance that a Center has defensively. Not enough - when they aren't getting back into the play defensively. Staal has probably been the worst defensive 1st line Center in the league this year but he's even in your system.

H. Sedin
Getzlaf
Stamkos
Gionta
Conolly

There's five 1st line centers who play worse defense than Staal off the top of my head. And I'm pretty sure if I actually tried, we could probably find 5-8 more.
 

DaveG

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I agree with most of that list but... Getzlaf? No way, he's pretty good defensively, not Datsyuk or even Richards good, but good.

#1s who are worse defensively?

H Sedin, Stamkos, Gionta, Connolly (agreed with those 4)

add: Spezza, Tavares, Roy, Ribeiro

and maybe: Thornton, Brad Richards, Kopitar (seriously, he's so overrated on D), Backstrom (see Kopitar)


Staal would still be bottom half of the league defensively for a #1C, but he's not nearly as bad as some think.
 

Finlandia WOAT

js7.4x8fnmcf5070124
May 23, 2010
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Getzlaf is based on the amount of *****ing Anaheim fans do about their captain in the defensive zone on these boards, and the few games I have seen of him where he looked pretty lost in the defensive zone.

Staal would still be bottom half of the league defensively for a #1C, but he's not nearly as bad as some think.

Which is the point I was trying to get at. Staal isn't a worldbreaker defensively, but his game has always been that of a slightly above average defensive center.
 

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I agree with most of that list but... Getzlaf? No way, he's pretty good defensively, not Datsyuk or even Richards good, but good.

#1s who are worse defensively?

H Sedin, Stamkos, Gionta, Connolly (agreed with those 4)

add: Spezza, Tavares, Roy, Ribeiro

and maybe: Thornton, Brad Richards, Kopitar (seriously, he's so overrated on D), Backstrom (see Kopitar)


Staal would still be bottom half of the league defensively for a #1C, but he's not nearly as bad as some think.

I'd disagree with all the maybes, and I'm fairly certain Gionta's a right wing. And Getzlaf is much better than Staal defensively.
 

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