***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by tarheelhockey, Oct 25, 2011.

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  1. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Thought this might make for an interesting ongoing project. We all know that the big weakness of the +/- stat is that it's context-independent -- if a guy comes off the bench a second before his teammate drunkenly shoots the puck into his own net, he gets a "minus". The idea here is to actually evaluate each goal for and against, assigning pluses and minuses based on context. Guys who actually contributed to the score will have their +/- altered; those who were standing around doing nothing remain even.

    Special teams don't count at all.

    Ideally this will give us a much more accurate and revealing +/- comparison by the end of the year. If nothing else, it gives us extra ammo to praise or complain after each game :sarcasm:

    Here's the master list that will be updated after each game. Note the last column. If a decision is disputed or controversial, it will be counted as a +1 in the final column. That will eventually give us a "margin of error" for the final totals.

     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2014
  2. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Game 1 vs Tampa Bay
    5-1 loss




    ES GOALS FOR
    1st 8:07 Skinner (Gleason, Ruutu)
    +1 to Skinner for creating the turnover and scoring the goal
    +1 to Ruutu for fishing the puck out of the corner
    +1 to Gleason for the initial shot
    +1 to Staal for the screen on Gleason's shot. I can see how this could be disputed.
    Even to Pitkanen as he wasn't involved in the play at all.

    ES GOALS AGAINST
    2nd 5:19 St. Louis (Stamkos)
    -1 to Skinner for the turnover
    -1 to Faulk, standing around on the play
    -1 to Pitkanen, drive-by defense
    -1 to Ruutu as he should have had that rebound or cleared the crease
    Even to Staal as he wasn't in the play until the point of desperation.

    2nd 12:32 Hall (Thompson, Jones)
    -1 to Faulk, terrible pinch
    -1 to Kaberle, misplayed the 2-on-1
    -1 to Staal, incredibly lazy backcheck
    Even to Skinner and Ruutu who were up on the wings.

    16:58 Malone (Purcell, Brewer)
    -1 to Skinner, overplayed Purcell on the forecheck and didn't get back.
    -1 to Staal for poor backchecking
    -1 to Harrison for misplaying the 3-on-2
    Even to Allen and Ruutu who were doing their jobs.

    Totals for the game:
    Faulk -2
    Gleason +1
    Harrison -1
    Kaberle -1
    Pitkanen -1
    Skinner -1
    Ruutu even
    Staal -1
    Everyone else even.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2011
  3. Anton Dubinchuk

    Anton Dubinchuk aho

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    If you're able to keep this tally up for the rest of the year, this is one of the better ideas I've seen on these boards... There won't be much dispute except over each individual play, but the margin of error stat is good as well. Great idea, great concept, let's see if it works out.
     
  4. Hayley from paramore

    Hayley from paramore Registered User

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    That's Harrison and not Joanna on the Malone goal.

    And honestly, I'd give Harrison a - there. He manned up on Lecavalier even though it was a 3-on-2 and Staal was a few strides behind Malone, which left the passing lane wide open.
     
  5. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Game 2 @ Washington
    4-3 OTL




    ES GOALS FOR
    3rd 18:41 Jokinen (Skinner, Staal)
    +1 to Pitkanen for keeping the puck in the zone
    +1 to Ponikarovsky for winning the board battle
    +1 to Staal for the pass
    +1 to Skinner for the pass
    +1 to Jokinen for burying it
    Kaberle even.

    ES GOALS AGAINST
    2nd 14:28 Semin (Carlson)
    -1 to Kaberle for the bad, deep pinch
    -1 to Ruutu for failing to cover Kaberle
    -1 to Faulk for the obvious
    Staal and Skinner even.

    2nd 19:39 Chimera (Ward, Alzner)
    -1 to Kaberle for bad pinch #2
    -1 to Ruutu for atrocious coverage of the puck carrier
    Faulk, Skinner, and somebody else (Staal?) even.



    Totals for the game:
    Faulk -1
    Kaberle -2
    Jokinen +1
    Pitkanen +1
    Ponikarovsky +1
    Ruutu -2
    Skinner +1
    Staal +1
    Everyone else even.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2011
  6. Hayley from paramore

    Hayley from paramore Registered User

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    Pitkanen should get a + on the Jokinen goal for pinching to keep the play alive
     
  7. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Right you are, fixed.

    On third look, you're right, it looks like Harrison thought Staal was going to somehow make up 5 feet on Malone. He even waved his stick to make the point that he wasn't covering Malone anymore. I'll put that one back in the "minus" category.
     
  8. Sasha Cares

    Sasha Cares 28 mph!!!!!!!

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    I think Chad should get + for every goal on both teams. Because he's so damn dreamy.
     
  9. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Did he? The replay picks up while he's backing away from the play so it's hard to tell what role he had. I can't seem to find a full replay... anybody?
     
  10. Hayley from paramore

    Hayley from paramore Registered User

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    I'm way too lazy to capture/upload video right now, so:

    [​IMG]

    Puck is sent up along the boards to Halpern (#15), Pitkanen (upper left) seals the wall and knocks Halpern off the puck
     
  11. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Oh yeah, that's clear enough. +1 for Pitkanen.
     
  12. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    Love the idea, but my only concern is, what happens to the +/- if the fault lies with the goaltender (ala Ladd's goal against Boucher). Would everyone remain even?
     
  13. bleedgreen

    bleedgreen Registered User

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    +/-
    The most useless stat in the sport. Coaches know who does the work and who doesn't, and don't need a number to quantify that. In high school they didn't even keep it as a stat when I played. I didn't know what it was till I started following advanced stats when I stopped playing and followed the pros more. Pretty sure if it wasnt for fantasy sports we would never even refer to it. It says nothing to the quality of your defensive play.
     
  14. bleedgreen

    bleedgreen Registered User

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    I appreciate the concept of trying to put blame where it belongs though. Don't think it'll truly bear fruit. I dont care about kaberles stats as long as he helps the pp, which he does, and doesn't let guys just go around him, which he doesn't. I don't care if he makes an errant breakout pass or a bad pinch. He makes so many good ones he makes up for it. Not to make this all about him, just an example.

    Curious to see how this turns out though, it's a good thought
     
  15. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Yeah, as long as the players are doing their jobs they shouldn't be penalized for a goalie's error.

    There could be a controversial point or two involved, such as Seguin's goal on Ward. IMO, it was just a laser of a shot, but there was some discussion about the defenseman allowing him too much space.
     
  16. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Game 3 @ New Jersey
    4-2 L




    ES GOALS FOR
    2nd 8:56 Ponikarovsky (Gleason, Allen)
    +1 Ponikarovsky for the tip-in
    +1 Gleason for the well-timed shot
    +1 Allen for keeping the puck at the blue line
    +1 Dwyer for keeping the cycle alive after the first, missed shot
    +1 Sutter for the screen
    A five-man goal!

    2nd 12:47 LaRose (Skinner, Allen)
    +1 to Allen for the turnover
    +1 to LaRose for the shot
    Staal and Gleason even.
    edit: Skinner gets a mark in the "margin of error" column as I'm not sure whether he intended to redirect that puck to LaRose.

    ES GOALS AGAINST
    1st 3:59 Parise (Elias, Sykora)
    -1 Skinner for failing to cover the high slot
    -1 Harrison for getting beaten to the rebound
    Kaberle, LaRose, Staal even.

    2nd 9:36 Fayne (Kovalchuk, Palmieri)
    -1 Staal for turning the puck over and getting beaten up-ice by the goal scorer :shakehead
    -1 to Faulk for a bad pinch
    -1 to Skinner for a poor defensive read
    Pitkanen, LaRose even.

    3rd 6:06 Kovalchuk (Josefson, Palmieri)
    -1 to Stewart for the turnover
    -1 to Ruutu for putting Stewart in a position to make that turnover
    -1 to Faulk for poor crease coverage
    Staal, Pitkanen even.


    Totals for the game:
    +2 Allen
    +1 Dwyer
    -1 Faulk
    +1 Gleason
    -1 Harrison
    +1 LaRose
    +1 Ponikarovsky
    -1 Ruutu
    -1 Skinner
    -1 Stewart
    +1 Sutter

    Everyone else even.

    That's it for today, I'll add a few more tomorrow to try and get us caught up to present.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2011
  17. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    I'd say if it's undecided, leave it even. It should even out over the course of a season. Though it looked like Skinner simply overskated the puck to me.
     
  18. What the Faulk

    What the Faulk You'll know when you go

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    I must say this is a fantastic idea. Sounds similar to something coaches would do while breaking down film and evaluating play. Wasn't it Boudreau on 24/7 that said they grade every player 1-5 after each game?

    And to Bleedgreen: At worst, it gives us something else to talk about besides Chad LaRose.
     
  19. the halleJOKEL

    the halleJOKEL strong as brickwall

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    But if Skinner doesn't have the puck hit him, who says Larose can even settle it to walk in and get the shot? Seems pretty important to me.

    That isn't to say Larose would have missed the bouncing puck. He never misses.
     
  20. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Yeah, it looked to me like he overskated it and I wouldn't have even given it a thought if they hadn't awarded Skinner the assist. That made me go back and look a couple more times, and now I'm not sure if he was completely oblivious, or knew he was overskating and directed it with his skate. Skinner is the kind of player who would do something like that in a split-second situation.

    I dunno, maybe this is a "margin for error" situation. Unless there's some other replay out there.
     
  21. dogbazinho

    dogbazinho Registered User

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    Since we're talking about statistics and applying additional context to them I have a question and a related suggestion. When a player is booted out of the faceoff circle does it count as a loss? I'm going to assume it does not but I'd like to see it count. I counted at least two against Staal last game and it appeared he was waving the white flag. Clearly Staal needs a center on his wing.
     
  22. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Game 4 vs Boston
    3-2 W




    ES GOALS FOR
    3rd 3:42 Stewart (Brent, Gleason)
    +1 Stewart for doing most of the work
    +1 Brent for winning a board battle against Seidenberg
    +1 Gleason for the cycle pass
    Dalpe, Allen even.

    3rd 13:32 Tlusty (Sutter, Dwyer)
    +1 Dwyer for causing turnover #1
    +1 Sutter for causing turnover #2
    +1 Tlusty for finishing it off
    Gleason, Allen even.

    ES GOALS AGAINST
    3rd 4:07 Seguin (Horton, McQuaid)
    In my opinion, this was on Ward. I'm going to put "margin of error" points on McBain and Pitkanen as they could conceivably have played it better to deny the shot.

    3rd 16:35 Marchand (Bergeron, Corvo)
    -1 to Sutter for leaving the slot but failing to get to Bergeron in time
    -1 to Tlusty for failing to cut off the pass and redirecting it to Marchand
    Dwyer, McBain, Pitkanen even.

    Totals for the game:
    Brent +1
    Dwyer +1
    Gleason +1
    Stewart +1
    Margin of error -1 for McBain, Pitkanen
    All others even.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2011
  23. Blueline Bomber

    Blueline Bomber From the Blueline

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    Gleason and Allen were the defensemen on the ice for Tlusty's goal. You can see the "A" on Gleason's jersey at 1:16, and Allen comes in from the bottom corner of the screen at 1:22.

    As for Seguin's goal, given Ward's tendencies to play the glove low (and thus, get beaten on that shot high), I'd say it's on him. Though I still question what McBain was doing at the red line when the play began.
     
  24. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Game 5 @ Buffalo
    4-3 W




    ES GOALS FOR
    1st 8:20 Ponikarovsky (Harrison, McBain)
    +1 Ruutu for digging the puck out of the corner
    +1 McBain for the swing pass
    +1 Harrison for the shot
    +1 LaRose for the screen
    +1 Ponikarovsky for the tip
    This was the second 5-man goal of the season!

    ES GOALS AGAINST
    1st 6:58 Vanek (Leopold)
    -1 Kaberle for missing the outlet pass
    -1 Pitkanen for failing to cover Vanek after the turnover
    Staal and Jokinen even, though Jokinen probably deserves a minus for leaving Roy open.

    1st 10:01 Roy (Stafford, Ehrhoff)
    -1 Staal for getting beaten cleanly by Roy
    -1 Harrison for the bad pinch to start the rush (let me know if I have the wrong guy here)
    Skinner, LaRose, Kaberle even.

    3rd 17:39 Stafford (Myers, Sekera)
    -1 to Pitkanen for failing to contain Myers
    -1 to Harrison for misreading the initial bounce, then not clearing the crease
    Ruutu, Ponikarovsky, Staal even.

    Totals for the game:
    -1 Harrison
    -1 Kaberle
    +1 LaRose
    +1 McBain
    -2 Pitkanen
    +1 Ponikarovsky
    +1 Ruutu
    -1 Staal
    Everyone else even.
     
  25. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    Thanks for that, fixed.
     

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