***FINAL*** 2011-12 Qualitative +/- Ratings (see Post #1)

[BamBam]

hats off.
great concept.
work it for a while.
if it looks like its going to fly:
you'll have to come up with a cool name.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You know what's crazy? Through 5 games, Tim Gleason was our best offensive player. Having no goals against is pretty impressive too, but really? Our top scoring threat is Tim *ing Gleason?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 6 @ Boston
4-1 W



ES GOALS FOR
1st 2:47 Stewart (Brandon Sutter, Pitkanen)
+1 Brent for a good pass at the point
+1 Brandon Sutter for the initial shot from the point
+1 Pitkanen for the second shot
+1 Brett Sutter for screens and havoc in front
+1 Stewart for the finish
Noteworthy that Brandon Sutter changed for McBain after that shot, giving McBain the official +1.

2nd 10:19 Pitkanen (Ruutu, Brent)
+1 Ruutu for causing the initial turnover and a nice breakout pass
+1 Brent for puck support on the turnover
+1 Pitkanen for everything else.
McBain, Ponikarovsky even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
None.

Totals for the game:
Brent +2
Pitkanen +2
Ruutu +1
Stewart +1
Brandon Sutter +1
Brett Sutter +1

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't give Brent a + on the Stewart goal. Yes, he passed to Sutter at the point, but I don't see it as being an integral part of the goal.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 7 @ St Louis
3-2 OTL



ES GOALS FOR
1st 6:52 Harrison (Tlusty, Brandon Sutter)
+1 Dwyer for the excellent forecheck
+1 Brandon Sutter for puck support on the forecheck and a good screen
+1 Tlusty for moving it up to Harrison
+1 Harrison for the shot
Kaberle even.

2nd 1:33 Brandon Sutter (Dwyer)
+1 Dwyer for knocking the puck loose to Sutter
+1 Brandon Sutter for probably the best 170-foot play of the season to date.
Tlusty, Gleason and Allen even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 5:18 Arnott (Langenbrunner, Jackman)
-1 Staal for losing a board battle and inexplicably covering the point
-1 Ruutu for failing to cover the boards or point
I'm not inclined to give McBain or Pitkanen a minus here. They were put in a terrible position by Staal and Ruutu's coverage. I could put a "dispute" point for either or both of them if there are objections.
Ponikarovsky even.

2nd 16:09 Backes (Oshie)
-1 Allen for the initial mishandle of a simple dump-in
-1 Gleason for a very badly conceived turnover
Again, I feel like the forwards (Brent, Stewart and Sutter) were put in a bad position here and don't deserve a minus. Please speak up if you disagree.

OT 3:58 D'Agostini (Sobotka, Pietrangelo)
-1 to Sutter for chasing the puck to the point, leaving his man wide open
-1 to Kaberle for failing to pick off the pass
Gleason, Jokinen even.

Totals for the game:
+2 Dwyer
+1 Harrison
+1 Sutter
+1 Tlusty
-1 Allen
-1 Gleason
-1 Kaberle
-1 Ruutu
-1 Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't give Brent a + on the Stewart goal. Yes, he passed to Sutter at the point, but I don't see it as being an integral part of the goal.

Aside from the pass, he was also playing the point which allowed Pitkanen to sneak down to get a good shot off the rebound. I feel like he was enough of the gameplan there to warrant the +, but that's what the "margin of error" column is for

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 8 @ Winnipeg
5-3 L



ES GOALS FOR
1st 4:40 Jokinen (LaRose, Skinner)+1 Skinner for that crazy falling-down shot
+1 LaRose for putting the rebound back on net
+1 Jokinen for poking it in
Pitkanen, McBain even.

1st 6:43 Skinner (LaRose, McBain)
+1 McBain for the first shot
+1 Jokinen for the screen on Pavelec
+1 Skinner for the finish
LaRose, Pitkanen even.

3rd 8:58 Ruutu (Skinner)
+1 Jokinen for the good forecheck
+1 Skinner for apparently looking like a member of the Jets
+1 Ruutu for the shot
Harrison, Kaberle even

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 4:29 Slater (Glass)
On Boucher. Should have been a VERY easy save.

2nd 6:07 Ladd (Wheeler, Bogosian)
Another one on Boucher. Wowzers.

2nd 7:30 Kane (Antropov, Stuart)
-1 LaRose for getting completely overpowered behind the net
-1 Pitkanen for getting completely overpowered in front of the net
McBain, Skinner, Jokinen even.

Totals for the game:
+3 Jokinen
+2 Skinner
+1 McBain
+1 Ruutu
-1 Pitkanen

 

[tarheelhockey]

So, this is what we had heading into the Ottawa game:

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Tim Brent | 3 | - | +3 | 1
Zac Dalpe | - | - | even | -
Patrick Dwyer | 4 | - | +4 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 3 | - | even | -
Chad LaRose | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Alexei Ponikarovsky | 2 | - | +2 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 4 | 3 | +1 | -
Jeff Skinner | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1
Eric Staal | 1 | 4 | -3 | -
Anthony Stewart | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Brandon Sutter | 4 | 1 | +3 | -
Brett Sutter | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Jiri Tlusty | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | 2 | 1 | +1 | -
Justin Faulk | - | 4 | -4 | -
Tim Gleason | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Jay Harrison | 2 | 4 | -2 | -
Derek Joslin | - | - | even | -
Tomas Kaberle | - | 3 | -3 | -
Jamie McBain | 2 | - | +2 | 1
Joni Pitkanen | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1

Someone really sticks out among the forwards...

 

[Blueline Bomber]

So we've learned that thus far, Eric Staal and Kaberle have played like crap. At least we've got statistics to back it up now.

 

[What the Faulk]

Justin Faulk too, while Mcbain is tied for the defensive lead

 

[Lazyking]

I'd say the only numbers that seem odd is Dwyer's and Chad's... Dwyer cause I've only noticed him in like 2 games and Chad's cause well.. it should be +85 not +2

 

[tarheelhockey]

Dwyer is apparently a much better forechecker than we give him credit for. He has a way of getting into the defense's face at just the right second to create an opportunity for his linemates.

I have to say, Jay Harrison has been worse than I hoped. Not 09-10 bad. But not good.

 

[Lazyking]

actully like that Harrison is shooting the puck... but he leaves something to be desired defensively.. needs to hit more.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Justin Faulk too, while Mcbain is tied for the defensive lead

Playing against easier competition

 

[tarheelhockey]

That, and he's had a tendency to get screwed up on assignments in front of the net. Maybe trying to do a little too much at times.

Edit: Harrison, that is.

 

[urho]

I like the idea. For whole season I've been thinking that Staal really puts defensemen in bad spots more than any other player in the team. Stats seem to prove that.

 

[faulkingdynamic]

That, and he's had a tendency to get screwed up on assignments in front of the net. Maybe trying to do a little too much at times.

Edit: Harrison, that is.

Last time i made this point i got skewered......how dare you deface the name of Jay! I think its clear that JR need to acquire a Silent Bob.

 

[Ole Gil]

As long as a dman tripping over himself and giving up a clean breakaway could end up counting as a 0 or a -1 based on the goalie making or not making the save, these kind of statistics shouldn't be thought too highly of.

There are just so so so many variables that go into a game to be drawing real meaningful conclusions based on only plays that resulted in goals. So maybe referring to it as statistical evidence proving any hypothesis is a bit much?

 

[Ole Gil]

Not that this isn't very interesting (it is), and fun to see who's been on the ice when goals are being scored, and their role in it. Just rather people didn't get carried away with the conclusions that can be drawn.

 

[tarheelhockey]

As long as a dman tripping over himself and giving up a clean breakaway could end up counting as a 0 or a -1 based on the goalie making or not making the save, these kind of statistics shouldn't be thought too highly of.

There are just so so so many variables that go into a game to be drawing real meaningful conclusions based on only plays that resulted in goals. So maybe referring to it as statistical evidence proving any hypothesis is a bit much?

It's true that boiling things down to scoring plays is an imperfect way to measure 60 minutes of performance. There are two responses that could help mitigate that concern:

1) We might not be able to conclusively answer the question, " who played better in that game?", but we can easily answer the question, "who gave us the biggest advantage on the scoreboard?". A slightly less useful question, but only slightly.

2) Over 82 games, the numbers might not be perfectly representative, but they will pretty much even out randomness with that large of a sample size. Hundreds of goals for and against should be enough to give us a good idea who performed better than whom.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 9 vs. Ottawa
3-2 SOL



ES GOALS FOR
3rd 15:08 Ruutu (Harrison)
+1 Ruutu for making it happen.
Harrison, Kaberle, Staal, Tlusty even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
2nd 6:30 Konopka (Gonchar, Winchester)
-1 McBain for getting caught on a pinch (kinda Sutter's fault, though)
-1 Brett Sutter for missing a turnover and then jumping out of position
Pitkanen, Brent, Boychuk(?) even.


Totals for the game:
+1 Ruutu
-1 McBain
-1 Brett Sutter

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

-a million for Brett Sutter on that play, I couldn't believe it when he did that.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 10 vs. Chicago
3-0 W



ES GOALS FOR
1st 3:08 Brent (Gleason)
+1 Brent for the faceoff win and the tip-in
+1 Gleason for the shot
Stewart, Boychuk, Allen even.

3rd 5:39 Sutter (Jokinen)
+1 Jokinen for cleverly clearing a loose puck to the vicinity of the penalty box
+1 Sutter for the finish
Ruutu, Allen, McBain/Pitkanen (they were changing) even.

3rd 15:07 Tlusty (Allen, LaRose)
+1 LaRose for a nice breakout pass
+1 Allen for showing that he is an elite playmaker
+1 Tlusty for burying it
Sutter, Gleason even.


ES GOALS AGAINST
none

Totals for the game:
+1 Allen
+1 Brent
+1 Gleason
+1 Jokinen
+1 LaRose
+1 Sutter
+1 Tlusty

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 11 @ Philadelphia
5-1 L



ES GOALS FOR
2nd 3:11 Jokinen (Tlusty, LaRose)
+1 Gleason for the chip pass
+1 LaRose for the tip into the zone
+1 Tlusty for a good 2-on-1 play
+1 Jokinen for sticking with the rebound and burying it
Allen even.

ES GOALS AGAINST
1st 6:57 Hartnell (Giroux)
-1 Gleason for the brain-crampingly awful turnover
Allen, Sutter, Dwyer, Tlusty even.

3rd 0:39 Jagr (Giroux)
-1 Allen for the misplay behind the net
-1 LaRose for missing an easy takeaway
Gleason, Tlusty, Staal even.

3rd 7:36 Giroux (Hartnell, Timonen)
-1 McBain for yet another bad play from the blueliners
-1 Pitkanen for a bad pinch
-1 Jokinen for first missing a takeaway, then taking a penalty without stopping Giroux
Staal, Skinner even.

3rd 12:17 Jagr (Hartnell)
-1 McBain for... *sigh*
-1 Pitkanen for a failed pokecheck behind the net
Considered giving Staal a minus, but I think he lifted Giroux's stick there.
LaRose, Tlusty even.

Totals for the game:
+1 Tlusty
-1 Allen
-2 McBain
-2 Pitkanen

 

[tarheelhockey]

An item of interest... here's how the real +/- stat compares to this subjective version, through 11 games.

Player | Subjective Version | Real Life Version | Difference
Forwards | | | |
Zach Boychuk | even | even | even
Tim Brent | +4 | +3 | -1
Zac Dalpe | even | +1 | +1
Patrick Dwyer | +4 | +3 | -1
Jussi Jokinen | +5 | +2 | -3
Chad LaRose | +3 | -2 | -5
Alexei Ponikarovsky | +2 | +1 | -1
Tuomo Ruutu | +2 | -3 | -5
Jeff Skinner | -1 | -7 | -6
Eric Staal | -3 | -13 | -10
Anthony Stewart | +1 | +1 | even
Brandon Sutter | +4 | +2 | -2
Brett Sutter | even | -1 | -1
Jiri Tlusty | +3 | +3 | even
Defensemen | | | |
Bryan Allen | +1 | +6 | +5
Justin Faulk | -4 | -6 | -2
Tim Gleason | +3 | +7 | +4
Jay Harrison | -2 | -1 | +1
Derek Joslin | even | - | even | -
Tomas Kaberle | -3 | -4 | -1
Jamie McBain | -1 | -2 | -1
Joni Pitkanen | -3 | -8 | -5

Interesting as it applies to our top-end players in particular. The Allen-Gleason pairing comes out smelling like roses with the real-life number, whereas guys like Pitkanen, Skinner and especially Staal get a pretty heavy penalty from the guys who share ice with them.