Fantasy Mock p3

[Joey Moss]

Salary Cap
-83,000,000
Trades
-Can trade picks/players as long as everyone has 20 players at the end of the draft
-If your pick has been skipped you can't trade it
-When making a trade, please post in this thread and have the other GM confirm
Goal
-Drafting the team that would win THIS YEAR
Contracts
-using cap hits for 19/20 as shown on capfriendly.com (J. Hughes = 925k hit)
-Players who have played at least 1 NHL game and have an NHL contract are eligible to be picked (No Kaprizov, Lafreniere etc)
Time Limit for picks
-2 hours (may change in the future)
-If you have back to back picks, it's still 2 hours not 4
-The clock starts at 10:00 AM ET and ends at 12:00 AM ET (Lots of PT/MT'ers in the draft).
Skipped Picks
-I will auto teams with skipped picks if 40 selections have been made since the pick
Voting
-Internally to determine playoff teams, polls section for playoff rounds

Anaheim - Gibby
Arizona - JonnyGraz
Boston - Blinny
Buffalo - donut
Calgary - Paneerboy
Carolina - BeLeafing
Chicago - hi
Colorado - Llamamoto49
Columbus - Makavelli
Dallas - AveryStar4Eva
Detroit - BoldNewLettuce
Edmonton - Joey Moss
Florida - PaulBissonnette
Los Angeles - Retinalz
Minnesota - Hindustan Smyl
Montreal - Paralyzer008
Nashville - hockeynorth
New Jersey - belair
NY Islanders - FanOfBadHockeyTeam
NY Rangers - Messrules11
Ottawa - Panda Bear
Philadelphia - McMozesMadness
Pittsburgh - DanCloutiers5Hole
San Jose - OB5
St. Louis - BumDum
Tampa Bay - LatvianTwist
Toronto - RIP Botchford
Vancouver - Peter Griffin
Washington - m0pe
Winnipeg - Took a pill in Sbisa
Vegas - Nucker101

Click to read more...

 

[Joey Moss]

3 threads for a GM game damn

 

[Joey Moss]

Also only 5 people have messaged me which teams they would like for next GM game so make sure to do that if you want in it'll be first come first serve for teams.

Fantasy Mock Draft (Categories Edition)

 

[Makaveli]

Wow that last one got filled up fast

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

149 picks until my last pick and only 46 players on my list. Last couple picks are gonna be rough. Think my 4th line is going to be a 8 minutes a night group

 

[Paralyzer008]

Last stat thing I'll do for a while - and I don't want to spoil potential targets:

I like to use FA/60 to show us who is best at minimizing chances - combine this with GF% to roughly see who has been pretty good defensively this year - mind you I'm NOT going to separate for quality of competition (before I get attacked by a panda).

Top 10 Cs in FA/60 with a GF% of at LEAST 51.5:
1. Ryan O'Reilly
2. NOT TAKEN YET
3. Patrice Bergeron
4. Sean Couturier
5. NOT TAKEN YET
6. NOT TAKEN YET
7. Brayden Schenn
8. Casey Cizikas
9. Phillip Danault
10. Robert Thomas

Let's see who takes the last three...

 

[hockeynorth]

Last stat thing I'll do for a while - and I don't want to spoil potential targets:

I like to use FA/60 to show us who is best at minimizing chances - combine this with GF% to roughly see who has been pretty good defensively this year - mind you I'm NOT going to separate for quality of competition (before I get attacked by a panda).

Top 10 Cs in FA/60 with a GF% of at LEAST 51.5:
1. Ryan O'Reilly
2. NOT TAKEN YET
3. Patrice Bergeron
4. Sean Couturier
5. NOT TAKEN YET
6. NOT TAKEN YET
7. Brayden Schenn
8. Casey Cizikas
9. Phillip Danault
10. Robert Thomas

Let's see who takes the last three...

I believe I know who number 2 is

 

[Horse McHindu]

Also only 5 people have messaged me which teams they would like for next GM game so make sure to do that if you want in it'll be first come first serve for teams.

Fantasy Mock Draft (Categories Edition)

Hi Joey,

I think I’ll have to pass as far as the next draft game goes as I’m falling behind on some projects. Best of luck with the next draft game!

 

[Blinny]

Also only 5 people have messaged me which teams they would like for next GM game so make sure to do that if you want in it'll be first come first serve for teams.

Fantasy Mock Draft (Categories Edition)

It seems super fun, but also incredibly time consuming

 

[Panda Bear]

Last stat thing I'll do for a while - and I don't want to spoil potential targets:

I like to use FA/60 to show us who is best at minimizing chances - combine this with GF% to roughly see who has been pretty good defensively this year - mind you I'm NOT going to separate for quality of competition (before I get attacked by a panda).

Let's see who takes the last three...

Quality of competition aside, I'd argue that it doesn't matter how good you are at minimizing chances if you're even worse at generating them.

 

[belair]

Quality of competition aside, I'd argue that it doesn't matter how good you are at minimizing chances if you're even worse at generating them.

It depends what your job is.

 

[Panda Bear]

It depends what your job is.

Maybe if all your line does is hold it against the boards so your other forwards can rest.

 

[Panda Bear]

lemme know if you wanna see yours

kreider is now my only due with -relDFF% and is one of two guys who are sub 50 CF. he is, however, a beast.

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Average of PDO	PandaScore
Artemi Panarin	4	113	65.5	52.7	7	50.3	5.6	37.1	1063	246.0
Phillip Danault	23	54	60.2	59.3	7.4	59.3	7	46.2	977	219.0
Ryan Strome	33	69	61.1	53.4	7.4	49.1	3.3	37.8	1014	211.0
Chris Kreider	78	59	60.5	47.0	-1	48.7	3.6	34.7	1016	190.0
Jaccob Slavin	88	43	58.7	55.9	4.8	55.7	1.9	39.4	1008	187.0
Pavel Buchnevich	106	55	55.7	52.7	6.1	51.1	5.9	36.1	1058	183.0
Valeri Nichushkin	135	34	71.4	57.0	7.4	55.9	5.3	29.3	1050	176.0
MacKenzie Weegar	177	33	53.2	54.9	7.6	53.4	4.4	34.3	996	169.0
Kevin Shattenkirk	189	40	64.0	55.7	5	53.3	1.6	27.6	1067	167.0
Lars Eller	200	46	51.4	53.1	2.7	55.8	5.7	28.9	1049	165.0
Matt Calvert	203	41	59.5	54.3	4.3	54.1	3.1	29.8	1077	164.0
Rocco Grimaldi	205	39	58.1	51.7	1.6	51.3	0.7	28.9	1020	164.0
Marco Scandella	295	17	61.9	53.4	2.7	52.5	1.18	32.4	1017	153.0
Grand Total	134	643	60.1	53.9	63	53.1	49.28	34.0	1032	184.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Panda Bear]

i'm also pretty sure that pearson + niskanen for kreider + this next pick was a bad trade but hey

 

[Horse McHindu]

i'm also pretty sure that pearson + niskanen for kreider + this next pick was a bad trade but hey

sure, I’d like to see mine, but I’m not sure how much of it I’ll be able to comprehend. You might need to explain a few key points for me if that’s ok.

 

[belair]

Nice pick with Matt Roy. I was going back and forth between him and Stecher. He had a really good year in LA, which would've been tough to do.

 

[Panda Bear]

all data is scraped from WoodMoney's puckIQ on the "elite competition" filter

GF% is goals for percentage when player is on ice
DFF% is Dangerous Fenwick For ratio, which takes into account shot type and distance when qualifying "dangerous"
CF% is Corsi For percentage
rel% is the difference between how the team performs when the player is on the ice versus off it, so a positive number means the team has a better percentage without them
CTOI% is the average time on ice against elite competition

Player	PandaRank	Sum of PPG*82	Average of GF%	Average of DFF%	Sum of relDFF%	Average of CF%	Sum of relCF%	Average of CTOI%	Sum of PDO	PandaScore
John Carlson	36	89	51.7	50.1	-1.7	51.4	-0.4	35.2	1030	209.0
Mark Scheifele	39	84	51.1	44.1	1.2	47.7	-1.3	39.7	1018	208.0
Nikolaj Ehlers	54	67	56.3	46.8	4.9	53.7	7.3	32.3	998	200.0
Tyler Toffoli	107	53	54.7	56.2	5.59	56.8	4.95	31.8	1032	183.0
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	116	51	47.6	50.7	1.76	47.4	-1.11	42.4	998	181.0
Marcus Foligno	156	35	58.2	57.5	5.7	52.1	3.1	32.6	1005	172.0
Brian Dumoulin	186	23	56.9	58.4	4.09	56.8	4.9	41.7	1022	168.0
Kasperi Kapanen	261	43	46.6	48.5	-4.2	52.0	-0.1	27.6	987	157.0
Matt Roy	290	21	57.1	55.2	5.6	56.0	4.3	25.2	984	154.0
James Neal	300	46	41.8	48.5	-0.1	49.8	4.09	31.6	1051	152.0
Brady Skjei	304	29	43.6	48.1	-1.56	47.7	-0.25	31.3	934	152.0
Jeff Carter	321	37	38.3	51.0	-1.7	53.0	-1.3	30.1	975	149.0
Scott Mayfield	474	16	50.7	48.7	-0.2	47.1	1.2	30.5	1026	132.0
Grand Total	203	595	50.4	51.1	19.38	51.7	25.38	33.2	13060	170.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Horse McHindu]

Nice pick with Matt Roy. I was going back and forth between him and Stecher. He had a really good year in LA, which would've been tough to do.

Thanks man. That’s one of the things that really blew me away about Roy. His plus/minus on a horrible Kings team, along with the fact that he was playing top 4. Seems like he’s a good skater and defensively responsible. He doesn’t have much offensive ability but that’s not too shabby for a 3rd pairing guy. He can play on a 2nd pairing and not look out of place at all.

 

[LT]

Has @McMozesmadness not asked for a PM for any pick thus far?

 

[Panda Bear]

I also have a version with PDO adjusted for, but hey, I'm finite.

 

[Paralyzer008]

The thing with your top line is - Panarin is awesome, no denying that. Just using the 2019-20 regular season stats alone, you can see that as reflected in your table.

However, Panarin/Strome's results are driven hard by their offensive zone results - extremely good rates at generating Fenwick in other team's zones. My concern would be that in the playoffs, as teams key on Panarin on that line in a tighter checking environment, that there would be more pressure on Strome to carry a load. Strome has a PDO of almost 104, something he's never come close to in his career. Their line doesn't really limit chances against either - they both come around 45 FA/60 overall.

It's working in the regular season, but I am skeptical Strome can continue that pace. His 1 point in his last 7 games (and 4 in the last 9) make me wonder if he was starting to slow down as March hit and the NYR got into some tougher games.

My team has loads of problems, but I wanted to challenge you a bit. We're already differing of opinion for the roster voting because I'm basing it on more than just this season's stats.

 

[Horse McHindu]

The thing with your top line is - Panarin is awesome, no denying that. Just using the 2019-20 regular season stats alone, you can see that as reflected in your table.

However, Panarin/Strome's results are driven hard by their offensive zone results - extremely good rates at generating Fenwick in other team's zones. My concern would be that in the playoffs, as teams key on Panarin on that line in a tighter checking environment, that there would be more pressure on Strome to carry a load. Strome has a PDO of almost 104, something he's never come close to in his career. Their line doesn't really limit chances against either - they both come around 45 FA/60 overall.

It's working in the regular season, but I am skeptical Strome can continue that pace. His 1 point in his last 7 games (and 4 in the last 9) make me wonder if he was starting to slow down as March hit and the NYR got into some tougher games.

My team has loads of problems, but I wanted to challenge you a bit. We're already differing of opinion for the roster voting because I'm basing it on more than just this season's stats.

Hey Paralyzer,

do you mind giving a quick analysis of my team? Would be interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[Panda Bear]

All fair and reasonable.

Even adjusting for PDO, Strome ranks well on the season.

I can argue that since we are trying to win the (hypothetical) 2020 Playoffs, data from previous seasons are irrelevant. While there isn't a perfect correlation between regular season scoring and playoff scoring, it is that regular season that informs exactly how well the player has been performing in the months before the playoffs begin.

"I think this player will rebound playing with so-and-so!" is a hypothetical that I don't buy for this. Almost every single line combination that we have in this draft is hypothetical. In real life, players are just as prone to flopping on a new team as they are to thriving. There are endless unknowns with trying to figure out how these players will do in these fantasy teams. So what can we do to in an attempt to control the unknown? Look at how the player has been doing over the current season, slot them in, and judge the team based on what little evidence we have.

Were we to assemble rosters for 2020/21, then I would argue that previous seasons are far more important because we are projecting something where we have no current relevant data.

 

[BumDum]

I'm surprised Derek Ryan was still available for my pick.

@Paralyzer008 and/or @Panda Bear could you analyze my team as well? I'm the Blues.

 

[Panda Bear]

When I get back to the laptop, sure.

I'll update the previous tables to account for PDO, which will be featuring now on.