Fantasy GM Thread | Part 9

[Nucker101]

Like @ahmon mentioned above, GAR is partly a rating of a player's talent level and partly a description of what happened (whether the player is the reason for it or not). In the case of something like Kase (or Jared McCann this season), a lot of goals went in for the player's team when he was on the ice. Now, given that we're talking Kase and Jared McCann, I don't think we really believe they're the best offensive players in the league. But they had inflated, unsustainable on-ice sh%s and the goals went in. The model sees goals went in and credits them for it (they were there when the goals happened!). It's not really a flaw of the model..it just is what it is. Partly a measure of what happened. It's more complex given it's long regression controlling for many other variables but...I think this is the gist.

Now, Evolving Hockey does have xGAR, which weighs shot metrics rather than on-ice goals. Jared McCann does not rank as highly by this (although still in the top-50.) More reasonable there.

Seth Jones does not rate highly in either GAR or xGAR. I've seen some video work on his slow turning/pivoting. It leads to leaving bad gaps and not "attaching" to his check effectively in the D-zone. It might be related to his multiple ankle injuries, so his decline might not be related to the "Torts effect" and is more about a real lack of mobility. Take that for what you want, but I think there's a huge buyer beware sign on him.

Yeah, I get that(trust me, I've looked into WAR, GAR, xWar, xGar). It still seems like more of a stat that's trying to condense those advanced stats player cards into one nice number for simplicity sake. I don't think it's completely useless, but I do take it with a grain of salt.

I actually think xGAR works better for team evaluations, but even then I prefer MoneyPuck's Flurry/Score adjusted XG% when looking at team performance, I think that formula has adjusted for some flaws in systems like xGAR.

Personally, I prefer looking at the stats all separately. Zone exits, zone entries, zone denials, shot quality for/against, shooting talent, quality of line mates, zone usage, shot chart heat maps, on-ice sh% for/against, and so on.

 

[Boose Brudreau]

Aren’t they gonna lose him to the expansion draft?

i think if anyone's on the move, it won't be him. Dobson makes Pulock expendable IMO. It's impossible to replace Mayfield's minutes at a similar cap hit and the islanders are right up against the cap wall.

 

[Nucker101]

i think if anyone's on the move, it won't be him. Dobson makes Pulock expendable IMO. It's impossible to replace Mayfield's minutes at a similar cap hit and the islanders are right up against the cap wall.

Pulock is their #1 dman, I highly doubt he’s moved. I’d be all over either Pulock or Pelech if they were made available. Sadly, we missed the boat on Toews last year

 

[bossram]

i think if anyone's on the move, it won't be him. Dobson makes Pulock expendable IMO. It's impossible to replace Mayfield's minutes at a similar cap hit and the islanders are right up against the cap wall.

Ummmm....No. He does not.

Pulock-Pelech is quite literally the best defensive pairing in the league. I don't see any circumstance where New York can move Pulock.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

What options do we realistically have for filling our #3 centre roll?

 

[supercanuck]

Pulock is their #1 dman, I highly doubt he’s moved. I’d be all over either Pulock or Pelech if they were made available. Sadly, we missed the boat on Toews last year

Some teams are just good at drafting and developing defenseman (Carolina, NYI, Nashville a few years ago) Maybe the Sedins can bring some valuable feedback there some how? Benning could use all the help he can get in that department.

 

[m9]

What options do we realistically have for filling our #3 centre roll?

I think it's possible they go EP/Miller/Horvat all at center this year with an eye on filling that role more permanently in 2021-22. They'll have more money at that time or if they draft a center this year that player may be able to step into a bottom-six role after a year.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

I think it's possible they go EP/Miller/Horvat all at center this year with an eye on filling that role more permanently in 2021-22. They'll have more money at that time or if they draft a center this year that player may be able to step into a bottom-six role after a year.

I suppose but it really stretches us thin on top 2 lines.

 

[m9]

I suppose but it really stretches us thin on top 2 lines.

Easier to find another top-9 winger than a center though. Maybe a Vrbata/Vanek type signing.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i think the canucks will try to move their first if they don't win tonight. they want to win now not in 3-4 years and drafting 9-11 in such an uncertain draft has a high risk of a big miss or a delayed developer. if i had to guess, the list of must have players for most teams does not get to nine, and the possible picks after that have not clearly stratified to the normal comfort level of scouts. if you can't see a huge difference between 10 and 20, you trade down or just move the pick.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

i think the canucks will try to move their first if they don't win tonight. they want to win now not in 3-4 years and drafting 9-11 in such an uncertain draft has a high risk of a big miss or a delayed developer. if i had to guess, the list of must have players for most teams does not get to nine, and the possible picks after that have not clearly stratified to the normal comfort level of scouts. if you can't see a huge difference between 10 and 20, you trade down or just move the pick.

I can see this too... but it better be for someone decent. As much as I like Seth Jones, unless you are signing him to an extension... no sense wasting a top 10-ish pick on 1-2 years of a “now type” player.

 

[krutovsdonut]

our last two big moves have been to take cap dumps off contenders. we should examine their rosters to see what benning might pluck with a first and juolevi as bait.

meanwhile i'd like us to try and add hjalmorrson and re-up edler on the left, assuming hjalmorrson will accept a mentor/platoon role. they have a fair bit in common so maybe they'd like the gig.

 

[Nucker101]

i think the canucks will try to move their first if they don't win tonight. they want to win now not in 3-4 years and drafting 9-11 in such an uncertain draft has a high risk of a big miss or a delayed developer. if i had to guess, the list of must have players for most teams does not get to nine, and the possible picks after that have not clearly stratified to the normal comfort level of scouts. if you can't see a huge difference between 10 and 20, you trade down or just move the pick.

Only teams at either contender status or desperate status trade firsts in the cap era in a flat cap league where good ELC players are gold.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Only teams at either contender status or desperate status trade firsts in the cap era in a flat cap league where good ELC players are gold.

i think you misconstrue my commentary on what i think the canucks will do as being what i think they should do.

i would rather they exhibit rudimentary patience and use this draft pick wisely on a finding an awesome prospect who should have gone higher in a normal year. where a management team running out of time doubtless sees delay and uncertainty, i see opportunity. but i am here for the long haul, and they are not. unless they make the playoffs next year.

 

[Nucker101]

i think you misconstrue my commentary on what i think the canucks will do as being what i think they should do.

i would rather they exhibit rudimentary patience and use this draft pick wisely on a finding an awesome prospect who should have gone higher in a normal year. where a management team running out of time doubtless sees delay and uncertainty, i see opportunity. but i am here for the long haul, and they are not. unless they make the playoffs next year.

Ahh gotcha. We’re in the same boat then. I’d like them to take the patient approach and ride out the bad contracts and try to find value in a deflated free agent and trade market due to the flat cap.

But I’m predicting that the 2022 first is moved. The team will want the immediate excitement and hope that another top 10 pick brings. Opposing teams might even prefer the 2022 pick since that draft class will be easier to scout compared to this one.

 

[krutovsdonut]

the more i think on this, the more i'd like the canucks to sign a couple of old farts with name recognition to short term deals. i am not sure how realistic that is, but it seems like the path to a finally clean cap slate in 2022 that will in the interim give the owner something to talk about at cocktail parties and the pr guys something to market and probably do the least damage to the team and maybe some good.

 

[vancityluongo]

the more i think on this, the more i'd like the canucks to sign a couple of old farts with name recognition to short term deals. i am not sure how realistic that is, but it seems like the path to a finally clean cap slate in 2022 that will in the interim give the owner something to talk about at cocktail parties and the pr guys something to market and probably do the least damage to the team and maybe some good.

Agreed.

Could see them going after Ryan Getzlaf or David Krejci. Maybe Corey Perry if he doesn't re-sign in Montreal.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Agreed.

Could see them going after Ryan Getzlaf or David Krejci. Maybe Corey Perry if he doesn't re-sign in Montreal.

trouble is the first two are still play drivers with their pick of where to go. it would take a lot to relocate them for a one year deal. stastny is more realistic.

but unless there is an expansion or cap dump opportunity, i agree that is where i would start kicking tires.

as mentioned, hjalmorsson is a potentially a great depth piece add if he is willing to stay in north america and potentially play a platoon role. that is something having the sedins in management might help get done.

 

[Nucker101]

trouble is the first two are still play drivers with their pick of where to go. it would take a lot to relocate them for a one year deal. stastny is more realistic.

but unless there is an expansion or cap dump opportunity, i agree that is where i would start kicking tires.

as mentioned, hjalmorsson is a potentially a great depth piece add if he is willing to stay in north america and potentially play a platoon role. that is something having the sedins in management might help get done.

Yeah, any decent vet is not going to have Vancouver high on their list unless Benning gives them too much money or term. Best move in this cap climate is to sit on your hands early in UFA and then strike once the agents themselves start reaching out to teams.

Edit: I'm not even on twitter that often and rarely listen to local sports talk radio/podcasts.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Yeah, any decent vet is not going to have Vancouver high on their list unless Benning gives them too much money or term. Best move in this cap climate is to sit on your hands early in UFA and then strike once the agents themselves start reaching out to teams.

Its hardly going to be at the bottom of the list either..Even the guys Benning 'couldn't ' re sign last season,wanted to be here.
Its not a case anymore where he has to convince players to come to vancouver.

 

[Nucker101]

Its hardly going to be at the bottom of the list either..Even the guys Benning 'couldn't ' re sign last season,wanted to be here.

The was after a fun playoff run, the team was having a blast, this year they looked miserable. Obviously the covid situation didn't help, but neither did all the losing, the fact J.T. Miller had to stand up for the organization against the NHL, or the fact they lost both Toffoli/Tanev due to having an overpaid bottom 6(Horvat's season ending comments basically let the cat out of the bag there, he's frustrated with how bad the bottom 6 has been).

For decent vets, usually they either want to join a contender, enjoy some sunshine/home cooking, or go chase the biggest money bag. If those aren't an option, it's probably because they're just not a good player anymore. None of that is promising for the Canucks outside of a B.C. boy being interested to play for his hometown team.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The was after a fun playoff run, the team was having a blast, this year they looked miserable. Obviously the covid situation didn't help, but neither did all the losing, the fact J.T. Miller had to stand up for the organization against the NHL, or the fact they lost both Toffoli/Tanev due to having an overpaid bottom 6(Horvat's season ending comments basically let the cat out of the bag there, he's frustrated with how bad the bottom 6 has been).

For decent vets, usually they either want to join a contender, enjoy some sunshine/home cooking, or go chase the biggest money bag. If those aren't an option, it's probably because they're just not a good player anymore. None of that is promising for the Canucks outside of a B.C. boy being interested to play for his hometown team.

Nah...even Miller said he loves this team and city (and he's American)..You're obviously reading way too much into media Twitter tripe, which sole intent is to get the reactionary fans frothing at the mouth.

Despite this last season, there's still good players on this team...I think they could easily attract quality free agents..

 

[Nucker101]

Nah...even Miller said he loves this team and city (and he's American)..You're obviously reading way too much into media Twitter tripe, which sole intent is to get the reactionary fans frothing at the mouth.

Despite this last season, there's still good players on this team...I think they could easily attract quality free agents..

I didn't say Miller wanted out, I'm just saying that this franchise's rep in the hockey world isn't exactly great right now and players on this team did not have any fun this season except for maybe Hoglander.

Canadian teams always have a more difficult time signing coveted UFA's from other teams unless they overpay or unless the team is a contender.

 

[Boose Brudreau]

Ummmm....No. He does not.

Pulock-Pelech is quite literally the best defensive pairing in the league. I don't see any circumstance where New York can move Pulock.

Dobson is already chewing away at his PP minutes (perhaps because Pulock had 1 pp point all year....). Pelech is RFA this year and will be getting a big raise/LTD or he's quite possibly gone next year. Pulock (even though he only has 1 year until UFA) generates the most return and is the most replaceable internally. Their cap situation is not good, so there will be tough decisions whatever direction they choose.

 

[Nucker101]

Dobson is already chewing away at his PP minutes (perhaps because Pulock had 1 pp point all year....). Pelech is RFA this year and will be getting a big raise/LTD or he's quite possibly gone next year. Pulock (even though he only has 1 year until UFA) generates the most return and is the most replaceable internally. Their cap situation is not good, so there will be tough decisions whatever direction they choose.

Pulock lead their team in ice time this season