Fantasy GM Thread | Part 9

[Peen]

I missed the OR at first but still Canucks aren't in a position to trade either hoglander or podkolzin. We need the cheap depth to slot in.

No I would not do it.

The canucks need two more top nine forwards even with Hog and Podz lol

 

[Nucker101]

Zero doubt in my mind that Benning makes an offer on Jones. Green will vouch for Jones since I believe he coached him in the WHL.

Benning is a sucker for big names when they become available for trade. Subban, Lucic, OEL, etc. Ownership is desperate to get fan interest up.

It all adds up

Edit: I actually like Jones as a player despite being a believer in analytics, his analytics were better a couple of years ago so I wonder if Torts has just worn him down mentally like he tends to do with a lot of star players.

Canucks need to be patient though so I’d be against moving picks/prospects out for him unless Columbus actually values Tyler Myers at his atrocious cap hit and term.

 

[rypper]

Zero doubt in my mind that Benning makes an offer on Jones. Green will vouch for Jones since I believe he coached him in the WHL.

Benning is a sucker for big names when they become available for trade. Subban, Lucic, OEL, etc. Ownership is desperate to get fan interest up.

It all adds up

Each time he's been saved from himself, but perhaps this time we won't be so lucky.

 

[Nucker101]

Each time he's been saved from himself, but perhaps this time we won't be so lucky.

That’s the sad part, his transaction history already looks terrible and that’s despite luckily dodging those massive land mines

 

[ahmon]

My take on Seth Jones is he is a #1, although not a high end #1.

2 years ago he looked like a top 10 dman especially in the playoffs.

He's better than Schmidt and much better than Myers, it comes down to cost to acquire him and his cap hit.

 

[bossram]

I'd be all over a $1.4M offer sheet to Dermott (assuming Seattle doesn't take him in the expansion draft).

He's probably Seattle's guy, unless they prefer Kerfoot.

 

[Peen]

would seth jones re-sign in liberal vancouver when he could bolt to dallas or somewhere central like vegas/colorado to be closer to mom and in a place prob more suited to him?

surely that’s factored in, no?

 

[canuckking1]

Played around on CapFriendly after buying out Holtby and terminating Jake Virtanen's contract. Basically, have 8M to fix the defence and 2 top 4 spots. Ideally, you find a way to move Myers and sign Hamonic at 2M for the bottom-pairing role instead

J.T. Miller ($5,250,000)-Elias Pettersson ($7,000,000)-Brock Boeser ($5,875,000)
Tanner Pearson ($3,250,000)- Bo Horvat ($5,500,000)- Nils Höglander ($891,667)
Joel Armia ($1,500,000)- Erik Haula ($2,250,000)- Vasily Podkolzin ($925,000)
Tyler Motte ($1,225,000)- Riley Nash ($1,500,000)- Matthew Highmore ($725,000)

Quinn Hughes ($5,750,000)-XXX
Nate Schmidt ($5,950,000)-XXXX
Jack Rathbone ($925,000)- Tyler Myers ($6,000,000)

Thatcher Demko ($5,000,000)
Laurent Brossoit ($1,500,000)

BUYOUTS
Braden Holtby ($500,000)

Buried
Loui Eriksson ($4,875,000)
Jay Beagle ($1,875,000)
Antoine Roussel ($1,875,000)

LTIR
Michael Ferland ($ 3,500,000)

Signing Bonuses
Hoglander $68,000 GP Bonus
Hughes $580,000 max "A" Bonuses
$649,000

CAP SPACE
8,073,121

 

[VanillaCoke]

Luc pls calm down

 

[Peen]

 

[Diamonddog01]

This is my updated Proposal for Seth Jones just for fun guys.

Well right off the bat the Canucks have a very nice piece to trade in a deal.

1st Rounder - Top 9 Pick

So that’s a really good start, now we have to decide is this for a rental or is this for someone were keeping.

Let’s say hypothetically it’s for a Signed Seth Jones.

What are the blue jackets currently looking for, my best guess is top prospect, and a defender that could potentially fit that role for them.

Reluctantly the Vancouver Canucks could trade Podkolzin or Hoglander In the deal, which would be significant pieces to add.

But the only way that would happen is if the Columbus blue jackets take a bad cap but decent player back in the deal.

Somebody that could play decent minutes for them.

The name that comes to mind right away is Tyler Myers.

So my final offer would probably be something like this.

Seth Jones
For
2021 1st (top 9)
Podkolzin (Top Prospect) | OR | Hoglander (Already a top 6 Winger)
Tyler Myers (Full Cap Hit)

Would you guys do it?

Yikes. Take out the middle part and I would. That’s a kings ransom.

 

[ahmon]

info I've found on Gar, its just regression of several statistics categories and then add it up.

can't use it to conclude how good a player is.

What are the strengths of GAR?
For one, it’s the only publicly available stat that attempts to account for basically every facet of play. It also gives a digestable, understandable interpretation for the value of a player, especially relative to one another. It’s an excellent starting point to get an idea of the value of a player, made more useful by the fact that you can look at the individual components to see where they shine and where they falter. It’s also very useful for looking at trends - maybe certain skills take longer to develop than others, and have a different aging curve.
What are the weaknesses of GAR?
While I think the stat is tremendously useful, there are a few things you have to keep in mind when using it. For one, GAR values are estimates - because it uses regression techniques in some places, there is inherent uncertainty in the values output by the system. Those error bars are hidden from view - we don’t really get to see them, and as a result, you have to be careful not to make conclusions based on GAR values that are relatively close to one another.
Along these same lines, sometimes it spits out counterintuitive values, and it’s hard to see exactly why. The complexity of the model means there’s no longer easy mappings from things we consider ‘inputs’ to player value (points, possession ability, etc.) to the GAR output. They’re obviously correlated, but there are now contextual factors (teammates, competition, score usage) included that make the mapping from input to output more opaque. In that way, the model is perhaps more opaque than one would like. However, this is no different from the heavily accepted WAR stats used in baseball. You can break them down into their core components, but it takes a fair bit of effort.
When I asked Sprigings what he thought the biggest weakness of the stat is, he mentions a more conceptual issue, noting that the stat straddles the line between being a measure of ‘true talent’ as opposed to ‘the value a player provided’. Parts of the even strength offense and defense are more a measure of ‘true talent’ but the rest tends to be a measure of what happened. Sprigings brought up an example where assists per 60 minutes are used as one of the inputs to assess even strength offense. That is a measure of what happened. However, Sprigings feels it would make more sense to use something like expected assists, which is a more apt measure of talent.
GAR, in my opinion, also struggles a little bit in divvying up credit between teammates. Sprigings uses robust mathematical techniques to try and separate the effects from teammates, but it is a non-trivial problem, and even the most robust method may struggle if players spend all of their time on ice together and have very little time apart. This can be more pronounced in situations where one of the players doesn’t have a lot of historical data to go off of (for example, rookies).

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

There will be a bidding war for Jones.

Want nothing to do with it.

Id rather pick up a Top 4 dman for relatively cheap from a team that cannot protect one come the ED.

But at the end of the day, I fully expect Benning to sign Barrie to some stupid contract.

 

[Nucker101]

I like looking at advanced stats but man does GAR seems very flawed to me. IIRC it had Ondrej Kase rated as a top 10 forward like a year or 2 ago.

 

[elitepete]

I also want to mention.

In all seriousness, when was the last time a number one centre and a number one defender was available for trade because they both want out of a organization, at the same time?

Somehow, there is a opportunity here, to significantly retool a team, I’m not saying we should do it, but there is serious names available

I don’t see a #1D in the trade though? Are we getting Zach Werenski??

 

[elitepete]

There will be a bidding war for Jones.

Want nothing to do with it.

Id rather pick up a Top 4 dman for relatively cheap from a team that cannot protect one come the ED.

But at the end of the day, I fully expect Benning to sign Barrie to some stupid contract.

Mayfield makes sense

 

[Bankerguy]

The Canucks want to run three scoring lines next year.
If that's the case and if they want to be competative, lets look at 9 players that belong in a top 9....and have true 4th liners not touch one of those 9 spots.
Petey, Boeser, Miller, Horvat, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Pearson. That's 7. Unless the Canucks can bring in at least 1 more top6 player, then there is NOT going to be three scoring lines.
It's going to be two scoring lines then two lines that are garbage, get outshot 2:1 and are hemmed in their own zone the whole game.
If we want to be competative with the 3 scoring lines type system (like Mtl), we cant have guys like Hawryluk, Sutter, Beagle, Roussel, Highmore, Vesey, Boyd playing in the top 9. Having two lines of guys like this ^ is one of the reasons we lose games.

If we didnt have CAP problems then i'd think we're actually set up to sign a couple second liners to fill out a legit 3-scoring line model because we have a pretty good young core.. but we're just screwed cap wise.

to be honest, next year should PROBABLY be a throw-away year since we have a ton more money coming off the books the year-after. But.. jobs are on the line.. so get ready for some bottom six , 30 year old 12 goal a year vet's!

 

[604]

The Canucks want to run three scoring lines next year.
If that's the case and if they want to be competative, lets look at 9 players that belong in a top 9....and have true 4th liners not touch one of those 9 spots.
Petey, Boeser, Miller, Horvat, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Pearson. That's 7. Unless the Canucks can bring in at least 1 more top6 player, then there is NOT going to be three scoring lines.

Hoglander - Pettersson - Boeser
Eklund (draft) - Miller - Podkolzin
Pearson - Horvat - Virtanen

There's your top 9.

Checking line: Motte - Beagle - Highmore

Spare: MacEwen

Unfortunately our D would still have Myers on the top pair, so we'll still suck.

 

[Boose Brudreau]

Mayfield makes sense

Not for the Islanders.

 

[Bankerguy]

Hoglander - Pettersson - Boeser
Eklund (draft) - Miller - Podkolzin
Pearson - Horvat - Virtanen

There's your top 9.

Checking line: Motte - Beagle - Highmore

Spare: MacEwen

Unfortunately our D would still have Myers on the top pair, so we'll still suck.

i love your optimism but Pearson and Virtanen on Horvat's line makes that not a scoring line. Horvat... poor guy cant do it himself. Pearson is legit 3rd line material at this point, he'd be fine if he were playing with two top6 players ...but Virtanen is a gong-show.
Also, you're straddling Jt. Miller with two rookies...one of whom is literally 18 yrs old lol.
The whole "three scoring lines" doesn't work unless they secure a legit top6 winger (or 2). Which again, doesn't look likely with the cap situation the way it is

 

[Kryten]

Hoglander - Pettersson - Boeser
Eklund (draft) - Miller - Podkolzin
Pearson - Horvat - Virtanen

There's your top 9.

Checking line: Motte - Beagle - Highmore

Spare: MacEwen

Unfortunately our D would still have Myers on the top pair, so we'll still suck.

Why do you hate captain Bo?

 

[604]

i love your optimism but Pearson and Virtanen on Horvat's line makes that not a scoring line. Horvat... poor guy cant do it himself. Pearson is legit 3rd line material at this point, he'd be fine if he were playing with two top6 players ...but Virtanen is a gong-show.
Also, you're straddling Jt. Miller with two rookies...one of whom is literally 18 yrs old lol.
The whole "three scoring lines" doesn't work unless they secure a legit top6 winger (or 2). Which again, doesn't look likely with the cap situation the way it is

At the stage we are at, we should be giving our kids a chance to succeed.

If it doesn't work out, a decision has to made on trading our aging assets for more picks and prospects or trying to re-sign them but the only way it could work is building from within.

Also, the second line gets sheltered more than our other lines...this will be good for all parties involved, including Miller.

No team has built a winner through free agency since the salary cap came in. I'd love or die relying on kids than signing UFAs to tread water.

Why do you hate captain Bo?

He's getting two guys who have at least scored at a 20G pace in the NHL during one of the last two years.

How many 3rd lines in the NHL can boast three guys who can score at a 20G+ pace?

 

[Nucker101]

Having 3 lines who can contribute offensively is definitely the new blueprint and has been for awhile now. Go cheap on the 4th line and load up the top 9 and top 4 defense. Too bad our GM is obsessed with overpaying for “elite” bottom 6 vets to “mentor” the good young players.

Plus I honestly don’t know if Green would even be able to get out of his own way if given a roster like that. Apparently he wanted guys like Beagle..

 

[bossram]

I like looking at advanced stats but man does GAR seems very flawed to me. IIRC it had Ondrej Kase rated as a top 10 forward like a year or 2 ago.

Like @ahmon mentioned above, GAR is partly a rating of a player's talent level and partly a description of what happened (whether the player is the reason for it or not). In the case of something like Kase (or Jared McCann this season), a lot of goals went in for the player's team when he was on the ice. Now, given that we're talking Kase and Jared McCann, I don't think we really believe they're the best offensive players in the league. But they had inflated, unsustainable on-ice sh%s and the goals went in. The model sees goals went in and credits them for it (they were there when the goals happened!). It's not really a flaw of the model..it just is what it is. Partly a measure of what happened. It's more complex given it's long regression controlling for many other variables but...I think this is the gist.

Now, Evolving Hockey does have xGAR, which weighs shot metrics rather than on-ice goals. Jared McCann does not rank as highly by this (although still in the top-50.) More reasonable there.

Seth Jones does not rate highly in either GAR or xGAR. I've seen some video work on his slow turning/pivoting. It leads to leaving bad gaps and not "attaching" to his check effectively in the D-zone. It might be related to his multiple ankle injuries, so his decline might not be related to the "Torts effect" and is more about a real lack of mobility. Take that for what you want, but I think there's a huge buyer beware sign on him.

 

[elitepete]

Not for the Islanders.

Aren’t they gonna lose him to the expansion draft?