F Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022 Draft)

[Kshahdoo]

Do you realize the odds for winning the lottery as the last place team are somewhere around 16%?

The odds of winning two years in a row even if the same team is last both years is 2%.

In what world is that a “good chance”? It’s akin to the odds of a team just missing the playoffs winning the draft - it can happen but the odds are tiny.

You will need to be top2 in 2023 to get Bedard or Michkov... Still not that good chance, but Edmonton once won 2 1st OAs in a row...

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Do you realize the odds for winning the lottery as the last place team are somewhere around 16%?

The odds of winning two years in a row even if the same team is last both years is 2%.

In what world is that a “good chance”? It’s akin to the odds of a team just missing the playoffs winning the draft - it can happen but the odds are tiny.

Geez, I had no idea that last-place teams didn't automatically get the first pick! The NHL has a draft lottery? No way! </s>

Of course I realize that.

If a team finishes last two years in a row (possible), they don't need to win the lottery the second year for the scenario I described to happen, they just need the No. 2 pick. The NHL has changed the lottery rules for 2022 and beyond to make it less likely that a bottom-feeder drops like Detroit did last year.

In this case, they have a better chance than any other team and that's a good chance. Would I bet my house on it? Absolutely not.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

You will need to be top2 in 2023 to get Bedard or Michkov... Still not that good chance, but Edmonton once won 2 1st OAs in a row...

From a mathematical perspective? I would agree, it's not a "good chance" but I am also speaking about this in the context of hockey history. It is rare for players like Bedard and Michkov to be available in the same draft and it is even more rare for them to be available in a year right after a player like Shane Wright is available. The example you cited of Edmonton winning 1OA two years in a row in 2009 and 2010 did not get them the type of generational talent available at the top of the boards in 2022 and 2023.

Talent wise, Bedard and Michkov are 1-2 for most people right now, in fact, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a knowledgeable hockey fan who didn't have them 1-2. But imagine this scenario:

The team picking No. 2 in 2023 has a meddling owner or a GM who is impatient and they don't pick Michkov at No. 2 because his KHL contract will keep him in Russia for three years after his draft. It would be a foolish decision, but as we all know, NHL teams make foolish decisions at the draft table all of the time. In this case Michkov could be picked with the No. 3 selection. What a steal that would be!​

It's fun to speculate, but if a team finishes last in 2021-22 and 2022-23, they have a good chance to alter the course of their franchise considering the talent available. If a team is lucky enough to get 1 OA in 2022 and 1st or 2nd in 2023, then it would be like Pittsburgh adding Malkin in 2004 and Crosby in 2005 -- or pretty darn close.

 

[The Sweetness]

Geez, I had no idea that last-place teams didn't automatically get the first pick! The NHL has a draft lottery? No way! </s>

Of course I realize that.

If a team finishes last two years in a row (possible), they don't need to win the lottery the second year for the scenario I described to happen, they just need the No. 2 pick. The NHL has changed the lottery rules for 2022 and beyond to make it less likely that a bottom-feeder drops like Detroit did last year.

In this case, they have a better chance than any other team and that's a good chance. Would I bet my house on it? Absolutely not.

Do you think “having a good chance” is the best phrase for something which at best, has a 2-3% chance of occurring?

That’s a 1/33 or 1/50 chance of happening. Let’s be realistic, it’s a long shot. Even with the new lottery rules it seems like it’ll be quite unlikely.

 

[lilmaxo]

Let’s not forget lambert and savoie are 2 top talents also.

 

[AnonymousHockey]

You will need to be top2 in 2023 to get Bedard or Michkov... Still not that good chance, but Edmonton once won 2 1st OAs in a row...

2010	Edmonton	Edmonton (1)	Edmonton	Taylor Hall
2011	Edmonton	New Jersey++ (8)	Edmonton	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2012	Columbus	Edmonton (2)	Edmonton	Nail Yakupov

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

it was 3, and it was different then. New Jersey won the lottery, the winner only ever moved up 4 slots. Bottom 4 seeds were only ones able to win first overall. So New Jersey moved up to 4th overall and Edmonton being the last place seed, retained its position in the standings and got first overall.

what we see here otherwise though, is only one of those 3 years did the last place team win the lottery and retain first overall by itself.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You will need to be top2 in 2023 to get Bedard or Michkov... Still not that good chance, but Edmonton once won 2 1st OAs in a row...

NHL GM’s often are out of a job after 2-3 years if they don’t put a good product on the ice. I think Michkov is going to have to show NHL teams a path to him playing in the NHL in his D+1 or D+2 to be picked in the top five, let alone top two.

 

[ponder]

NHL GM’s often are out of a job after 2-3 years if they don’t put a good product on the ice. I think Michkov is going to have to show NHL teams a path to him playing in the NHL in his D+1 or D+2 to be picked in the top five, let alone top two.

I think you’re underrating Michkov’s talent. He just had the best U-18 tourney by a 16 year old since Ovie, IMO. And his MHL season was arguably the best ever by a 16 year old. Dude is an absolute scoring machine with an incredible offensive skill set, I think the chances of him going top 2 in 2023 are strong. Obviously 2023 is a long way away, but he looks special.

The Russian factor is very real, teams are worried about these guys not coming over, but it doesn’t seem to affect truly elite prospects much. There’s less risk of them staying in Russia, because they’re NHL ready faster, and their earning potential is much higher in the NHL. It’s possible Michkov’s contract with SKA scares teams off, but I don’t think it will if he continues to look so elite.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think you’re underrating Michkov’s talent. He just had the best U-18 tourney by a 16 year old since Ovie, IMO. And his MHL season was arguably the best ever by a 16 year old. Dude is an absolute scoring machine with an incredible offensive skill set, I think the chances of him going top 2 in 2023 are strong. Obviously 2023 is a long way away, but he looks special.

The Russian factor is very real, teams are worried about these guys not coming over, but it doesn’t seem to affect truly elite prospects much. There’s less risk of them staying in Russia, because they’re NHL ready faster, and their earning potential is much higher in the NHL. It’s possible Michkov’s contract with SKA scares teams off, but I don’t think it will if he continues to look so elite.

I didn’t comment on his ability and it has nothing to do with the Russian factor, which doesn’t exist anymore.

If you are a GM and you draft a guy 2nd or 3rd, knowing that player won’t play for you for three years, you are risking that the player won’t play a game for your team before the owner assesses if you should be fired or not. Is that how you want to allocate early draft picks?

 

[ponder]

I didn’t comment on his ability and it has nothing to do with the Russian factor, which doesn’t exist anymore.

If you are a GM and you draft a guy 2nd or 3rd, knowing that player won’t play for you for three years, you are risking that the player won’t play a game for your team before the owner assesses if you should be fired or not. Is that how you want to allocate early draft picks?

Ah cool, so mostly just thinking his contract with SKA could scare teams off? I agree it’s a significant factor, but I think if he looks really great, teams will bite the bullet and wait for him.

Also, he can potentially buy himself out and come over early, right? The deal is only for around $250K USD/year, I think, so early buyout wouldn’t be too crazy?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Also, he can potentially buy himself out and come over early, right? The deal is only for around $250K USD/year, I think, so early buyout wouldn’t be too crazy?

These buyouts never happen though. Fans talk about it a lot for almost no effect. Same situations have been discussed for many Russian players before Michkov, and I think there have been like 1 or 2 who have actually been bought out.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Wright needs to buy out his CHL contract... I mean, go to SHL or Liiga for a season.

 

[PlayersLtd]

NHL GM’s often are out of a job after 2-3 years if they don’t put a good product on the ice. I think Michkov is going to have to show NHL teams a path to him playing in the NHL in his D+1 or D+2 to be picked in the top five, let alone top two.

I'm not sure this holds water.

Going off the board and NOT taking Michkov if he continues his path could be the last straw for an incumbent GM running a failing team. Conversely, a failing team could have a NEW gm with a relatively long rope and thus Michkov is the obvious choice. Somewhere in the middle is the 'softmore' GM who sees a future with Michkov 2-3 years out as a way to guarantee him a bit more 'wait and see' time.

Many scenarios where the GM's stature could lend itself to the opposite of what you are saying, assuming he continues to separate himself as the consensus 1/2.

 

[majormajor]

NHL GM’s often are out of a job after 2-3 years if they don’t put a good product on the ice. I think Michkov is going to have to show NHL teams a path to him playing in the NHL in his D+1 or D+2 to be picked in the top five, let alone top two.

I don't agree with that.

You can see for yourself that the value that teenagers like Kakko and Laf bring is not that great, really nothing compared to a prime-age elite player. Michkov will be coming over at what age? 21? 22? And he'll be an instant superstar. That's pretty much an elite draft pick minus the awkward part.

I think the wait is unfortunate still, because he is that damn good that he would be scoring a ton in the NHL at age 19 and 20. But most 2nd overalls would not be scoring that much, so there's not much loss there by passing on Fantilli or whoever else you'd take at #2.

 

[Fatass]

Any doubt this guy is 1OA in 2022?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm not sure this holds water.

Going off the board and NOT taking Michkov if he continues his path could be the last straw for an incumbent GM running a failing team. Conversely, a failing team could have a NEW gm with a relatively long rope and thus Michkov is the obvious choice. Somewhere in the middle is the 'softmore' GM who sees a future with Michkov 2-3 years out as a way to guarantee him a bit more 'wait and see' time.

Many scenarios where the GM's stature could lend itself to the opposite of what you are saying, assuming he continues to separate himself as the consensus 1/2.

I don't think very many owners are holding off on firing a GM because of a prospect, unless it's an obvious generational player like McDavid or Crosby. As we've seen in recent seasons, players like Hughes and Lafreniere don't come in with a guarantee of instant success.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't agree with that.

You can see for yourself that the value that teenagers like Kakko and Laf bring is not that great, really nothing compared to a prime-age elite player. Michkov will be coming over at what age? 21? 22? And he'll be an instant superstar. That's pretty much an elite draft pick minus the awkward part.

I think the wait is unfortunate still, because he is that damn good that he would be scoring a ton in the NHL at age 19 and 20. But most 2nd overalls would not be scoring that much, so there's not much loss there by passing on Fantilli or whoever else you'd take at #2.

I'm merely speaking of the competitiveness of a team. Young players can help. Often times, they do. Let's say the Blackhawks took some guy with a 3 year further contract instead of Dach, and that player wasn't showing up until the 2022-23 season. Do you think the Blackhawks would be as far forward in their build if they had a complete unknown at the NHL level compared to Dach? And frankly, you bring up Kakko and Lafreniere. Those guys are going to be further forward than you'd expect of the overwhelming majority of rookies by the end of their third season.

 

[majormajor]

I don't think very many owners are holding off on firing a GM because of a prospect, unless it's an obvious generational player like McDavid or Crosby. As we've seen in recent seasons, players like Hughes and Lafreniere don't come in with a guarantee of instant success.

I would think Michkov is going to be in a higher tier than Laf or Hughes.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would think Michkov is going to be in a higher tier than Laf or Hughes.

I'm not, at all, convinced of that.

 

[BondraTime]

I would think Michkov is going to be in a higher tier than Laf or Hughes.

Very easily

 

[habsrule4eva3089]

I'm not, at all, convinced of that.

Same poster who believes Carey Price is not a top 3 Canadian goalie, ain't it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Same poster who believes Carey Price is not a top 3 Canadian goalie, ain't it.

Sorry that I believe in production mattering. I would also like my team’s players to be better than they are, but objective measures matter and Price doesn’t do well in objective measures.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

He's not anymore and hasn't been since 2017. Still top 5 though.

Still top two at least. Stay tuned, there could be another update. Barkov, Bergeron, Stone named Selke Trophy finalists

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I see Shane Wright becoming a Columbus Blue Jacket.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I see Shane Wright becoming a Columbus Blue Jacket.

Yeah, I bet Columbus will pick him, if wins the 1OA.