F Seth Jarvis - Portland Winterhawks, WHL (2020, 13th, CAR)

[VikingAv]

....2015-2016 :....2018-2019 WHC-17 : led his team in goals and points (1 goal, 1 point).....

I wish that he was scouted properly from the get go.
Not that it matters now per se, but still...scouting, in general, just sucks lol

I know! I mean, how hard can it possibly be? You can just spend the time on EliteProspects watching the stats (except when you've checked so many players you get locked out for a while, of course), don't even have to watch a minute of hockey! And still, these idiots get it so wrong lol

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I know! I mean, how hard can it possibly be? You can just spend the time on EliteProspects watching the stats (except when you've checked so many players you get locked out for a while, of course), don't even have to watch a minute of hockey! And still, these idiots get it so wrong lol

 

[landy92mack29]

Exactly. I think his WHL comparable is more Brayden Point at the same age.

Similar size, both excellent skaters, fantastic hands, and played on not very good teams in their draft year.

I have no clue how anyone can think Portland was a bad team this year. They were arguably the 2nd best team in the whl behind edmonton

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Yeah, Jarvis certainly wasn't playing on a bad team this year; Portland had the best record in the WHL.

I'd argue Jarvis was the main reason why the team was so good, however.

 

[Kipper933]

I have no clue how anyone can think Portland was a bad team this year. They were arguably the 2nd best team in the whl behind edmonton

Yeah, this is one of those HFBoards narratives gone wild.

Portland were 2nd in the WHL in goals, 1 goal behind Kamloops for #1, and yet Jarvis had "no one to play with".

 

[landy92mack29]

Yeah, Jarvis certainly wasn't playing on a bad team this year; Portland had the best record in the WHL.

I'd argue Jarvis was the main reason why the team was so good, however.

No Hofer was clearly their best and most important player. Jarvis is a great junior player but he never took over a game like the numbers suggest. He flashed what he can do but there's a lot of risk with him translating to pros similar to Yamamoto coming out of juniors. If he hits you're getting a great top 6 player but with the risk I wouldn't take him until early 2nd. Always be warry of smaller players in the Portland system.

 

[simonedvinsson]

No Hofer was clearly their best and most important player. Jarvis is a great junior player but he never took over a game like the numbers suggest. He flashed what he can do but there's a lot of risk with him translating to pros similar to Yamamoto coming out of juniors. If he hits you're getting a great top 6 player but with the risk I wouldn't take him until early 2nd. Always be warry of smaller players in the Portland system.

I'm not going to argue that a winger is more important to their team than their goaltender, but I don't think that Jarvis' size is any concern. He's only 5'10", but at 172 lbs, he's not tiny. Also, looking at his dad, who is probably around 6'2", I wouldn't be surprised if he's not done growing. Anyway, Jarvis has great hockey sense, skates fast, thinks fast, plays his heart out... everything you're looking for when projecting a smaller forward. I think his game translates very well.

As an aside, I'm not sure why you're calling out Portland for small forwards either. The only other forwards I'd expect to maybe go in the first three rounds are Dureau (5'11") and Hanas (6'1"). You could argue Fromm-Delorme and Knack, but they're 6'1" a piece.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Yeah it's frustrating. Im trying to give you money!

Same thing with the ohl site

Yes. The Q website is still working. Not sure what's going on.

 

[landy92mack29]

I'm not going to argue that a winger is more important to their team than their goaltender, but I don't think that Jarvis' size is any concern. He's only 5'10", but at 172 lbs, he's not tiny. Also, looking at his dad, who is probably around 6'2", I wouldn't be surprised if he's not done growing. Anyway, Jarvis has great hockey sense, skates fast, thinks fast, plays his heart out... everything you're looking for when projecting a smaller forward. I think his game translates very well.

As an aside, I'm not sure why you're calling out Portland for small forwards either. The only other forwards I'd expect to maybe go in the first three rounds are Dureau (5'11") and Hanas (6'1"). You could argue Fromm-Delorme and Knack, but they're 6'1" a piece.

Portland has a history of always being a good team and developing high scoring smaller forwards who have a tough time translating to pro hockey most of the time. It's just part of the system they've used for a long time. Whether Jarvis breaks the mold who knows and he very well could. I don't doubt his upside but he has a lot more risk than some think. Sam Girard is listed at 5'10, he ain't 5'10 closer to 5'8. Same thing goes for Jarvis he's close to 8 than 10. A lot of players sizes are over reported though, another negative of no combine this year. Possible he grew a bit over the rona

 

[simonedvinsson]

Portland has a history of always being a good team and developing high scoring smaller forwards who have a tough time translating to pro hockey most of the time. It's just part of the system they've used for a long time. Whether Jarvis breaks the mold who knows and he very well could. I don't doubt his upside but he has a lot more risk than some think. Sam Girard is listed at 5'10, he ain't 5'10 closer to 5'8. Same thing goes for Jarvis he's close to 8 than 10. A lot of players sizes are over reported though, another negative of no combine this year. Possible he grew a bit over the rona

You're talking about Nic Petan and Brendan Leipsic? I get that the coaching hasn't changed a whole lot in the years since those guys left, but Jarvis is a very different player than those guys.

I've never stood next to him in person, so I can't really guess as to his actual height, but I agree that it's a pity we don't have the combine to know for sure.

 

[DatDude44]

Not sold on the guy entirely.

I mean, Petan was also a very highly touted prospect too. Right now he's looking like he'll be a KHL superstar sometime in the future.

Another guy worth mentioning is Ty Rattie.

Watching rattie I’m juniors and watching Jarvis to my eye is completely different. Ratties skating was A hindrance a bit and everything he did was slow and soft, worked in juniors but didn’t translate to the NHL, Jarvis to me feels far superior to rattie as a prospect.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Watching rattie I’m juniors and watching Jarvis to my eye is completely different. Ratties skating was A hindrance a bit and everything he did was slow and soft, worked in juniors but didn’t translate to the NHL, Jarvis to me feels far superior to rattie as a prospect.

There’s a reason Rattie went in the second round and Jarvis is projected closer to 15-20

 

[FrankGallagher]

I think a big differentiator for Jarvis against past Winterhawks is the skating ability. He is one of the best skating prospects in the draft which is a trait that can help a smaller guy make up for a lot at higher levels. He was also clearly the dominant offensive threat on Portland, played on an excellent team deep with talent, but was a clear cut above the rest. The compete level also really makes me want to buy in on Jarvis. The pure skill component is not at the level of guys like Raymond and Perfetti, which makes me slightly hesitant to rank him higher than them, but his ability to play with pace, and combine his skill with his skating makes me think he will be an excellent NHLer some day. Actually think there's not as much risk with him as some think

 

[jc17]

I still don't get why rattie it's even discussed.

He was 4th on his team in points per game with 1.18 vs jarvis leading his team with 1.69 and the 2nd closest with 1.14.

Their production isn't even close. The petan comparison is better, but petan also had 2 teammates with the same points per game.

The reality is most guys who do what jarvis did are successful. Far from a guarantee, guys like Bennett, yakupov, goldobin didn't work out so its not foolproof but the majority of guys who score as much as jarvis did, with a commanding lead on his team are good nhlers.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't like the Point comparison.. Point was and is a puck control wizard.. Jarvis seems more opportunistic then a puck possession/creator to me.

 

[kk87]

I still don't get why rattie it's even discussed.

He was 4th on his team in points per game with 1.18 vs jarvis leading his team with 1.69 and the 2nd closest with 1.14.

Their production isn't even close. The petan comparison is better, but petan also had 2 teammates with the same points per game.

The reality is most guys who do what jarvis did are successful. Far from a guarantee, guys like Bennett, yakupov, goldobin didn't work out so its not foolproof but the majority of guys who score as much as jarvis did, with a commanding lead on his team are good nhlers.

It's also important to look at the trajectory Jarvis has followed - he's been a solid prospect for a long time, but once he really hit his stride at the start of the new year he was arguably the best player in the CHL, as a 17/18 year old. In that sense, as impressive as the 1.69ppg is, it doesn't tell the whole story; this is a guy who could legitimately become an elite player at the next level

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Feels like Jarvis compares so well to Yamamoto. Slightly larger, less gritty. Both WHL forwards who lead their team in scoring by a long shot in their draft year. Neither guy had much help on the team either. Feel like teams would regret letting him slip past 15 and I wouldn’t blink an eye if he was taken top ten

 

[The Sweetness]

I won't be surprised at all if Jarvis ends up better than Byfield 3-5 years down the line.

 

[MNRube]

When you are a dominant junior scorer who plays with great pace and is relentless in all areas of the ice you will have success in the NHL.

I think he goes between 8 & 12. He’s perfect for the modern NHL and I think one of the safest picks in the 1st.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

When you are a dominant junior scorer who plays with great pace and is relentless in all areas of the ice you will have success in the NHL.

I think he goes between 8 & 12. He’s perfect for the modern NHL and I think one of the safest picks in the 1st.

I agree.

 

[abo9]

What's the usual "feeling" on prospects who improve their game/production by so much year over year pre-draft? I'm not a great prospect person, but I'd think that this type of "explosion" offensively is a great sign that the prospect is working hard and improving? Which translate into great things to come?

Vs a guy who arrives in the CHL already really good and his production improving at a normal rate for aging?

 

[bert]

I'm not going to argue that a winger is more important to their team than their goaltender, but I don't think that Jarvis' size is any concern. He's only 5'10", but at 172 lbs, he's not tiny. Also, looking at his dad, who is probably around 6'2", I wouldn't be surprised if he's not done growing. Anyway, Jarvis has great hockey sense, skates fast, thinks fast, plays his heart out... everything you're looking for when projecting a smaller forward. I think his game translates very well.

As an aside, I'm not sure why you're calling out Portland for small forwards either. The only other forwards I'd expect to maybe go in the first three rounds are Dureau (5'11") and Hanas (6'1"). You could argue Fromm-Delorme and Knack, but they're 6'1" a piece.

Thats really interesting that his father is that size. He for sure is likely still growing.

Feels like Jarvis compares so well to Yamamoto. Slightly larger, less gritty. Both WHL forwards who lead their team in scoring by a long shot in their draft year. Neither guy had much help on the team either. Feel like teams would regret letting him slip past 15 and I wouldn’t blink an eye if he was taken top ten

This is a joke right? The last two pages were people describing how he had a terrific supporting cast.

 

[Dominance]

I won't be surprised at all if Jarvis ends up better than Byfield 3-5 years down the line.

I’m not even disagreeing, it’s just f***ing hilarious that Byfield is everyone’s whipping boy.

 

[jc17]

There's always a chance one player could be better than another but I would still put byfield ahead of him. Everything people like about jarvis, byfield has done. Score a lot without a ton help, play a decent 2 way game, have a history of being productive.

That's where I think byfields age and size come into play. I hate that his age and size seem to be a trump card for some people, but when a lot of other aspects are similar to another prospect he gets the edge.

I'd say the biggest thing Jarvis has over byfield is that ohl scoring was inflated and jarvis jumps him when adjusted but not by so much that it's super relevant.

I think jarvis absolutely could be better than guys hes drafted behind, and maybe he will be better than QB, but I don't really see anything now that really suggests it

 

[RoadWarrior]

I’m not even disagreeing, it’s just f***ing hilarious that Byfield is everyone’s whipping boy.

People forget that Byfield is one of the youngest players in the draft. His game is very raw and immature compared with others but he's got plenty of time to improve.

The red flags are his performances against tougher competition where he basically disappeared.