F Seth Jarvis - Portland Winterhawks, WHL (2020, 13th, CAR)

[jc17]

People forget that Byfield is one of the youngest players in the draft. His game is very raw and immature compared with others but he's got plenty of time to improve.

The red flags are his performances against tougher competition where he basically disappeared.

There's some validity with that when comparing him to guys like laf, stutzle, raymond and holtz who looked good internationally but I do think its unfair when its used against him in conversations about guys who didn't even play internationally.

 

[MatthewFlames]

I have no clue how anyone can think Portland was a bad team this year. They were arguably the 2nd best team in the whl behind edmonton

I think the misconception comes somewhat from the fact that Portland is such a young team, comparatively speaking. Which means, of course, that they're gonna be incredibly fun and even higher scoring next season ((if we have one)).

 

[DatDude44]

Thank you, kindly. Watching.

How was it

 

[Baaaaaaaaaaaaah]

I won't be surprised at all if Jarvis ends up better than Byfield 3-5 years down the line.

He already is.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

People forget that Byfield is one of the youngest players in the draft. His game is very raw and immature compared with others but he's got plenty of time to improve.

The red flags are his performances against tougher competition where he basically disappeared.

Is there any real evidence that Byfield's age is in the draft is a positive rather than being irrelevant or even a negative? I see this argument trotted out all the time. "But he's so young!" It's a lazy argument.

Back to Jarvis, this kid should absolutely go top 10, even top 6. He could be a Zach Parise/Joe Pavelski/Chris Drury type forward. Not necessarily a first team all star but he'll have some good offensive years and will be the kind of guy who comes up big in the clutch. With his motor I'm sure he'll be successful at the next level.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Is there any real evidence that Byfield's age is in the draft is a positive rather than being irrelevant or even a negative? I see this argument trotted out all the time. "But he's so young!" It's a lazy argument.

Back to Jarvis, this kid should absolutely go top 10, even top 6. He could be a Zach Parise/Joe Pavelski/Chris Drury type forward. Not necessarily a first team all star but he'll have some good offensive years and will be the kind of guy who comes up big in the clutch. With his motor I'm sure he'll be successful at the next level.

Common sense would indicate that a player who is 8 or 9 months younger than his competition has more room to grow as a player. Experience and maturity make a difference.

However Byfield has some tendencies that are a cause for concern. His poor performances against better players is problematic. That suggests he may have a harder time adjusting to pro hockey. I've also noticed that many of his goals were off plays created by his linemates and he was not generating as much offense as you'd expect for a player with his stat line.

 

[jc17]

Is there any real evidence that Byfield's age is in the draft is a positive rather than being irrelevant or even a negative? I see this argument trotted out all the time. "But he's so young!" It's a lazy argument.

Later born players seem more likely to outperform draft year numbers, but its far from a sure thing and the "hes basically playing in his d-1 year" thought is bologna. I think it can be something you consider if guys are close but shouldn't be a major part of the decision.

As others have pointed out, look at dal colle and Bennett vs reinhart and draisaitl

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Later born players seem more likely to outperform draft year numbers, but its far from a sure thing and the "hes basically playing in his d-1 year" thought is bologna

I read a study a while ago regarding this issue and it wasn't as much player B is younger therefore more likely to score more than player A who is older, but players born within certain times of the year from Canada because a lot of development programs have cut offs of January 1. Players born in summer and fall months tended to be better than those born in winter months. But the study didn't mention anything about what position the players played. It's also an old article when advanced analytics were in their infancy. It read more like junk science from an undergrad student rather than an actual data scientist.

Correlation is not always causation.

 

[The Sweetness]

He already is.

Yeah, totally agree. I was just highlighting how low risk I think Jarvis is for the NHL in terms of translatable skills even though he’s smaller.

 

[NotProkofievian]

How was it

The website is not working at the moment. I've emailed their customer service, but unfortunately no response just yet.

 

[DatDude44]

The website is not working at the moment. I've emailed their customer service, but unfortunately no response just yet.

What site do u use?

 

[NotProkofievian]

What site do u use?

WHL live. Both OHL live and WHL live have started throwing errors when I try to buy the games. Someone else in this thread had the same problem.

 

[jc17]

WHL live. Both OHL live and WHL live have started throwing errors when I try to buy the games. Someone else in this thread had the same problem.

Yeah let me know if they respond

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

If you have Jarvis in your top 10, what games did you watch that made you believe in Jarvis as a potential top offensive contributor in the NHL?

Tri-cities at Portland, 24 Jan
Portland at Seattle, 25 Jan

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Yeah, totally agree. I was just highlighting how low risk I think Jarvis is for the NHL in terms of translatable skills even though he’s smaller.

The games I saw(if you want to go back in the thread) he has great edgework, but couldn’t get D to turn when going outside, when he undressed D at a slower speed, it was the kind of thing where a NHL D would’ve just squared up and lifted him off the puck.
Even though my model loves him, I’m more like. This is why you have to watch.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

WHL live. Both OHL live and WHL live have started throwing errors when I try to buy the games. Someone else in this thread had the same problem.

My understanding is that the CHL is working on a new provider instead of NeuLion, so don’t count of tech support anytime soon.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Tri-cities at Portland, 24 Jan
Portland at Seattle, 25 Jan

Thank you.

My understanding is that the CHL is working on a new provider instead of NeuLion, so don’t count of tech support anytime soon.

Perkele.

 

[jc17]

The tri city one is on YouTube

 

[majormajor]

The tri city one is on YouTube

Is there a more impressive shift-by-shift performance by any player in this draft? If so I have not seen it.

What really stands out to me in this video is the body control and reading ahead of the play. Jarvis is not just a fast agile player picking on slow WHL D-men. He's very much in control of his body and the puck and making plays in a very cerebral Panarin-like fashion.

What's going on with his draft ranking? Are there a bunch of scouts pretending they don't want him? I can't figure it out.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Is there a more impressive shift-by-shift performance by any player in this draft? If so I have not seen it.

What really stands out to me in this video is the body control and reading ahead of the play. Jarvis is not just a fast agile player picking on slow WHL D-men. He's very much in control of his body and the puck and making plays in a very cerebral Panarin-like fashion.

What's going on with his draft ranking? Are there a bunch of scouts pretending they don't want him? I can't figure it out.

OHL bias, and last summer's draft rankings also causing further bias.

 

[DatDude44]

Is there a more impressive shift-by-shift performance by any player in this draft? If so I have not seen it.

What really stands out to me in this video is the body control and reading ahead of the play. Jarvis is not just a fast agile player picking on slow WHL D-men. He's very much in control of his body and the puck and making plays in a very cerebral Panarin-like fashion.

What's going on with his draft ranking? Are there a bunch of scouts pretending they don't want him? I can't figure it out.

I feel the same way. He’s my 5th ranked forward personally. His skill set and head for the game will translate so well to the pros and he’ll only get better playing with better/smarter players.

His only real knock in my viewings is his physicality and heaviness on pucks when forechecking which will come with physical maturation, he already takes great angles and has a smart stick

 

[majormajor]

OHL bias, and last summer's draft rankings also causing further bias.

Still, 18th on Bob McKenzie's list?

 

[Tetsuo]

Still, 18th on Bob McKenzie's list?

Jarvis is one of the sleepiest of sleeper picks I've ever followed. He has good tools but his effort level is an x-factor. I don't really know how he has managed to stay under the radar to this extent. The anti-WHL bias is strong I guess?

 

[MatthewFlames]

Still, 18th on Bob McKenzie's list?

This is, I believe, a compilation of scouts opinions. And, most of those scouts are not WHL scouts. I feel like the shortened season and no playoffs are the prime reason why a lot of non-WHL scouts would not have had a chance to really watch him live and make a judgement.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Still, 18th on Bob McKenzie's list?

Sometimes Bob McKenzie gets things wrong.