Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

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seanlinden

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When you say "and that's probably where he views himself.", do you mean he views himself as the teams 5th best forward? Just curious, if that's the case then I think he might be selling himself short. Not that I want to start a debate or anything but to me it's clear that Tavares, Nylander and Hyman are the 3-5th best forward on the team. What order to put them in is much less clear and I think there's a case to made for Hyman being the best of those 3 today. Ice time is IMHO an excellent way of measuring value and by that measure, as of right now Keefe values Hyman over the other two.

There was another thread about "who is the most valuable/important" forward. Hyman may be the team's 3rd most valuable forward...

But he is not the team's 3rd best forward. When we say "best" -- we attempt to remove the context of the surroundings, and it's about who has the most skill and ability (either offensive or defensive).

John Tavares is a former 40 goal scorer that would be a 1st line centre on a good chunk of the teams in the league. William Nylander would probably be the best, or 2nd best offensive winger on a good chunk of the team's.

Hyman is a "glue" guy in Toronto, and would be a glue guy anywhere else. He simply doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back. He more than anyone understands that.
 
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Gary Nylund

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There was another thread about "who is the most valuable/important" forward. Hyman may be the team's 3rd most valuable forward...

But he is not the team's 3rd best forward. When we say "best" -- we attempt to remove the context of the surroundings, and it's about who has the most skill and ability (either offensive or defensive).

John Tavares is a former 40 goal scorer that would be a 1st line centre on a good chunk of the teams in the league. William Nylander would probably be the best, or 2nd best offensive winger on a good chunk of the team's.

Hyman is a "glue" guy in Toronto, and would be a glue guy anywhere else. He simply doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back. He more than anyone understands that.

Sounds like you're arguing that Hyman is more valuable to the Leafs then he would be to other teams, is that right?

I'm also curious what you mean when you say Hyman " doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back.". How do you define driving a line?

IMHO line driver is a term that's overused and undefined to the point where is doesn't really mean anything. And depending on how one does define it, Hyman, Matthews and Marner could all be argued as the one who "drives" which is a good example of how meaningless a term it is. If you asked me, I'd say that when they're together, they split the driving duties more or less equally. :)
 
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The Iceman

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I don't care if my Mother is my GM, I'm not taking no discount, which is what every player has said every time a contract comes up. Respect is shown by the $$$ a team pays you. Zach is taking no discounts, he is doing Kyle no favors.

Nothing personal but I suggest you wouldn't be a heart and soul type player like ZH.
When you give as much as Hyman does every night it is with a sense of pride and loyalty to the team.
He is a very different player type.
I could be wrong about Zach and you LOL
The Boston guys all took hometown discounts, lets hope Zach does too. We will build him a statue.
 

seanlinden

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Sounds like you're arguing that Hyman is more valuable to the Leafs then he would be to other teams, is that right?

I'm also curious what you mean when you say Hyman " doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back.". How do you define driving a line?

IMHO line driver is a term that's overused and undefined to the point where is doesn't really mean anything. And depending on how one does define it, Hyman, Matthews and Marner could all be argued as the one who "drives" which is a good example of how meaningless a term it is. If you asked me, I'd say that when they're together, they split the driving duties more or less equally. :)

Yes, Hyman is probably more valuable to the leafs than most other teams due to his fit with Marner and Matthews.

A line-driver in the context of a top line generally means the guys with the playmaking and/or high end scoring ability. Those are the "best" players in the game, and who get paid the big bucks.

Glue guys / puck retrieval guys, while important, are not "the best" players. They tend to be more interchangeable and replaceable... and their careers tend to be more "fleeting" because of how important effort is to their game, and that they tend to put more wear and tear on their bodies.
 
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Gary Nylund

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Yes, Hyman is probably more valuable to the leafs than most other teams due to his fit with Marner and Matthews.

Strongly disagree. Hyman fits like a glove no matter what line he plays on and that to me suggests that he is likely to fit like a glove on any team he plays on.

There was an interesting discussion on overdrive recently on the possibility of Hyman being on the Olympic team. We'll see but at this point in time, I'd say that he is more likely to be chosen for the team then Tavares, would you agree or disagree? We'll see but if he is picked, that would decimate your theory that much of his value comes from his fit with Marner and Matthews.

A line-driver in the context of a top line generally means the guys with the playmaking and/or high end scoring ability. Those are the "best" players in the game, and who get paid the big bucks.

Source? Like I said, there is no definition so everyone can choose their own meaning. If I had to do it I'd probably say it has to do with making the biggest contribution to getting/maintaining possession and by that standard, Hyman concedes nothing to his linemates. And if you look at your criteria, there's really not much of a gap between Hyman and the other two either. Point shares is an interesting stat, by that one the three players (Hyman, Tavares, Nylander) are in a virtual tie.

Glue guys / puck retrieval guys, while important, are not "the best" players. They tend to be more interchangeable and replaceable... and their careers tend to be more "fleeting" because of how important effort is to their game, and that they tend to put more wear and tear on their bodies.

IMO deciding who's best has nothing to do with what label you put on them (playmaker, glue guy, scorer etc.). Do you really think Hyman would be easy to replace?

I look at it this way - if we were to begin a PO series tomorrow against a good team, WPG, COL, TB, whoever and you had to to choose play the series without either Nylander, Tavares or Hyman, who would you choose. That's how you decide who the best player is today. And I'll bet that if we were to set up a poll on this today, the results would be ... interesting. Hard to predict the results but if you think that a strong majority would choose to play without Hyman, I'm pretty sure you'd be wrong. In fact I would guess that most people would say that as of right now, we need Hyman more then the other two.

As far as fleeting career, wear and tear etc., I agree with you there. I'm just talking about value as of right now.
 
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JT AM da real deal

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There was another thread about "who is the most valuable/important" forward. Hyman may be the team's 3rd most valuable forward...

But he is not the team's 3rd best forward. When we say "best" -- we attempt to remove the context of the surroundings, and it's about who has the most skill and ability (either offensive or defensive).

John Tavares is a former 40 goal scorer that would be a 1st line centre on a good chunk of the teams in the league. William Nylander would probably be the best, or 2nd best offensive winger on a good chunk of the team's.

Hyman is a "glue" guy in Toronto, and would be a glue guy anywhere else. He simply doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back. He more than anyone understands that.
While your points are theoretically correct bottom line is Zach is our only forward, with possible exception of Wayner when he is completely healthy, who can actually retrieve pucks on da forecheck ... it is a skill which we need 1 more guy who has it ... combined with that skill is a guy who can score 2o goals per year, a guy who can block shots and a guy who can run a PK and you get a very unique player ... and lastly he is now a guy who is experienced and in his prime .. last night we don't get 2 points without Zach ... but we did get those 2 points without Willy ... everyone knows this team will drop off considerably without Zach ... we will get rid of Willy before Zach guaranteed
 

JT AM da real deal

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There was another thread about "who is the most valuable/important" forward. Hyman may be the team's 3rd most valuable forward...

But he is not the team's 3rd best forward. When we say "best" -- we attempt to remove the context of the surroundings, and it's about who has the most skill and ability (either offensive or defensive).

John Tavares is a former 40 goal scorer that would be a 1st line centre on a good chunk of the teams in the league. William Nylander would probably be the best, or 2nd best offensive winger on a good chunk of the team's.

Hyman is a "glue" guy in Toronto, and would be a glue guy anywhere else. He simply doesn't have the offensive ability to drive anything more than a 3rd line, which holds him back. He more than anyone understands that.
While your points are theoretically correct bottom line is Zach is our only forward, with possible exception of Wayner when he is completely healthy, who can actually retrieve pucks on da forecheck ... it is a skill which we need 1 more guy who has it ... combined with that skill is a guy who can score 2o goals per year, a guy who can block shots and a guy who can run a PK and you get a very unique player ... and lastly he is now a guy who is experienced and in his prime .. last night we don't get 2 points without Zach ... but we did get those 2 points without Willy ... everyone knows this team will drop off considerably without Zach ... we will get rid of Willy before Zach guaranteed
 

seanlinden

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Strongly disagree. Hyman fits like a glove no matter what line he plays on and that to me suggests that he is likely to fit like a glove on any team he plays on.

There was an interesting discussion on overdrive recently on the possibility of Hyman being on the Olympic team. We'll see but at this point in time, I'd say that he is more likely to be chosen for the team then Tavares, would you agree or disagree? We'll see but if he is picked, that would decimate your theory that much of his value comes from his fit with Marner and Matthews.



Source? Like I said, there is no definition so everyone can choose their own meaning. If I had to do it I'd probably say it has to do with making the biggest contribution to getting/maintaining possession and by that standard, Hyman concedes nothing to his linemates. And if you look at your criteria, there's really not much of a gap between Hyman and the other two either. Point shares is an interesting stat, by that one the three players (Hyman, Tavares, Nylander) are in a virtual tie.



IMO deciding who's best has nothing to do with what label you put on them (playmaker, glue guy, scorer etc.). Do you really think Hyman would be easy to replace?

I look at it this way - if we were to begin a PO series tomorrow against a good team, WPG, COL, TB, whoever and you had to to choose play the series without either Nylander, Tavares or Hyman, who would you choose. That's how you decide who the best player is today. And I'll bet that if we were to set up a poll on this today, the results would be ... interesting. Hard to predict the results but if you think that a strong majority would choose to play without Hyman, I'm pretty sure you'd be wrong. In fact I would guess that most people would say that as of right now, we need Hyman more then the other two.

As far as fleeting career, wear and tear etc., I agree with you there. I'm just talking about value as of right now.

You seem to be lumping in 2 different ideologies and using them interchangably -- Best Player versus Most Important to the Team. Best player is who would be more desirable if the context of their current situation was removed -- put all players in the league on an "even playing field". Most valuable player to a team considers the player's surroundings, and the "alternative options" available within that organization. If the playoffs started today against a good team; lose William Nylander before Hyman, but Hyman before Tavares. Our centre depth is complete crap without JT. That doesn't make Hyman "a better player" than William Nylander, it makes him more important in the current context. Go into the offseason and ask the 31 teams whether they can have William Nylander at $4m or Zach Hyman at $4m.... William Nylander likely goes 31/31.

I'm talking about best player. Hyman will fit like a glove on many, many teams... but there are very few teams that have 4 forwards with the offensive skills of Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander. That's what makes him so valuable to us -- 4 supremely skilled forwards, and a massive drop-off after that.

In terms of replacability, yes, Hyman would be a lot easier, and a lot cheaper to replace than William Nylander. The skilled players are the best players in the league, and command the biggest salaries / asset investments. Hyman is a "glue guy" -- there's lots of them in the league.
 
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Gary Nylund

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You seem to be lumping in 2 different ideologies and using them interchangably -- Best Player versus Most Important to the Team. Best player is who would be more desirable if the context of their current situation was removed -- put all players in the league on an "even playing field". Most valuable player to a team considers the player's surroundings, and the "alternative options" available within that organization. If the playoffs started today against a good team; lose William Nylander before Hyman, but Hyman before Tavares. Our centre depth is complete crap without JT. That doesn't make Hyman "a better player" than William Nylander, it makes him more important in the current context. Go into the offseason and ask the 31 teams whether they can have William Nylander at $4m or Zach Hyman at $4m.... William Nylander likely goes 31/31.

I'm talking about best player. Hyman will fit like a glove on many, many teams... but there are very few teams that have 4 forwards with the offensive skills of Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander. That's what makes him so valuable to us -- 4 supremely skilled forwards, and a massive drop-off after that.

In terms of replacability, yes, Hyman would be a lot easier, and a lot cheaper to replace than William Nylander. The skilled players are the best players in the league, and command the biggest salaries / asset investments. Hyman is a "glue guy" -- there's lots of them in the league.

Fair enough, I get your point about best vs most important etc. but I still don't think that means Hyman has more value to the Leafs then he would to other teams. I guess it would depend on the team - if other teams could choose one player from those three, some would choose Hyman, some would choose Nylander or Tavares depending on their biggest need was. As of today, I'd say that these three players are pretty close in their value (not projecting into the future, just value to a team this season).

You say Hyman would a a lot easier, and a lot cheaper to replace than Nylander - that's where I strongly disagree. You call him a glue guy and say there's lots of them, I just don't see it. I think he's a lot more unique then you think, hell I can't even think of one Maple Leaf like him over the last 50 years. And if Hyman is so much less skilled then the other two, how is it that he's right up there with them in PTS despite getting less PP time? I mean sure he has grade A linemates but he doesn't play with M&M all the time whereas Nylander and Tavares are pretty damn good too and they play together most of the time.
 
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seanlinden

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Fair enough, I get your point about best vs most important etc. but I still don't think that means Hyman has more value to the Leafs then he would to other teams. I guess it would depend on the team - if other teams could choose one player from those three, some would choose Hyman, some would choose Nylander or Tavares depending on their biggest need was. As of today, I'd say that these three players are pretty close in their value (not projecting into the future, just value to a team this season).

You say Hyman would a a lot easier, and a lot cheaper to replace than Nylander - that's where I strongly disagree. You call him a glue guy and say there's lots of them, I just don't see it. I think he's a lot more unique then you think, hell I can't even think of one Maple Leaf like him over the last 50 years. And if Hyman is so much less skilled then the other two, how is it that he's right up there with them in PTS despite getting less PP time? I mean sure he has grade A linemates but he doesn't play with M&M all the time whereas Nylander and Tavares are pretty damn good too and they play together most of the time.

Ease of replacement factors in both "difficulty" and "cost.

There's a reason why Hyman is going to command $3-5m, and Nylander makes $7m.
 
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Nylanderthal

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Wait, is this an option to shield a player from the draft? And are you assuming Hyman would be that loyal that he'd hold out to do it for us?
You handshake on the terms of the agreement and simple sign the papers the second Seattle is finished with the XD. Like a few others have mentioned if there’s a guy who’s dedicated to the blue and white it’s Hyman.
I am also of the belief that he’s a future executive with the team as well if that’s the route he chooses when his playing days are finished
 

Gary Nylund

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Ease of replacement factors in both "difficulty" and "cost.

There's a reason why Hyman is going to command $3-5m, and Nylander makes $7m.

Again, Hyman IMHO is a lot more unique than you think and a lot harder to replace than you think.

Part of the reason is that Hyman is older and will likely give a discount and contracts are signed for term. I'm talking about choosing one player for a playoff run right now, nothing beyond that. And by that criteria as of right now, Hyman, Nylander and Tavares are pretty close to equal value.
 

Nylanderthal

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I would shoot them a draft pick and ask them to take Kerfoot of our hands
I don’t think that’s going to be needed considering the lack of good forwards, specifically C’s that will be available to Seattle. Honestly it’s a coin flip right now between him and dermott IMO. Dermott will need a raise and playing time and Seattle is going to have a plethora of quality D men available to them not so much up front.
It’s crazy how a lot of posters undervalue Kerfoot. His 5v5 play when accounting for zone starts and QoT and QoC has been as good as Kadri has been since the trade. Not to mention he’s cheaper and younger and has a good brain fixed a top his shoulders not a sack of rocks
 

seanlinden

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Again, Hyman IMHO is a lot more unique than you think and a lot harder to replace than you think.

Part of the reason is that Hyman is older and will likely give a discount and contracts are signed for term. I'm talking about choosing one player for a playoff run right now, nothing beyond that. And by that criteria as of right now, Hyman, Nylander and Tavares are pretty close to equal value.

:facepalm:

We're not talking about chosing 1 player for the impending playoff run, on the context of the present Toronto Maple Leafs team.

We're talking about who the best player is; contextual factors removed. William Nylander is a better hockey player than Zach Hyman. This isn't isn't a slight against him -- it's just the reality of his game. The reason it's so difficult for the Leafs to replace him, is solely because of the cap constraints caused by the big 4.

~$3-4m buys you a Zach Hyman. $3-4m cannot buy you a William Nylander.
 
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Egghead1999

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Agreed he will be the 5th highest paid forward, IMO in the $5 mil range. He knows his market value and will be paid appropriately. It's not unusual for good teams to lose serviceable / good players Chicago for example had to dump Ladd, Buff, Bolland, Versteeg, Hjalarmson (sp?), Nemi and Shaw. Hyman will get paid , the only thing left to determine is what color his sweater will be next year.
Is it you, Jimbo?
haha, You can say whatever his value is. No team will give him 5m AAV in this flat cap. It will be a buy-out contact before the ink dries. His contact will be low~3M AAV. What was his number when he was not with AM34 or JT? If he asks over 4M AAV, he better hopes oilers is coming for him :popcorn:
 

Bluelines

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Is it you, Jimbo?
haha, You can say whatever his value is. No team will give him 5m AAV in this flat cap. It will be a buy-out contact before the ink dries. His contact will be low~3M AAV. What was his number when he was not with AM34 or JT? If he asks over 4M AAV, he better hopes oilers is coming for him :popcorn:


I think you have a case of prejudging a player because he is Zach Hyman, that 4th line scrub, that skates like he is trying to murder the ice, the guy that Babcock forced on the 1st line vs Zach Hyman that guy that can play on any line, in any situation, PK, PP, 5 on 5, the last minute of the game with a one goal lead and make every line he plays on a better line, Zach Hyman.

If you base it on production alone, you have a good comparable in Nylander:

Zach Hyman - 38GP/13G/15A/28P - $ ???
William Nylander 39GP/13G/17A/30P - $6,900,00
 

Faltorvo

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Feb 18, 2008
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:facepalm:

We're not talking about chosing 1 player for the impending playoff run, on the context of the present Toronto Maple Leafs team.

We're talking about who the best player is; contextual factors removed. William Nylander is a better hockey player than Zach Hyman. This isn't isn't a slight against him -- it's just the reality of his game. The reason it's so difficult for the Leafs to replace him, is solely because of the cap constraints caused by the big 4.

~$3-4m buys you a Zach Hyman. $3-4m cannot buy you a William Nylander.
Melander is a better player then Hyman????

BAHAHAHAHAHA!! f***ing hello NO!!!!!!!

I take Hyman 10/10 over willi the friendly ghost
 
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Ciao

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Wait, is this an option to shield a player from the draft? And are you assuming Hyman would be that loyal that he'd hold out to do it for us?
Yes, and yes.

The Leafs hold exclusive bargaining rights with Hyman.

Unlike other pending UFA's, the Leafs can negotiate with those already under contract to the team without tampering. Their negotions can include the timing of a contract, which of course is not binding until a contract is signed,

If the Leafs and Hyman agree all terms, I think they can trust that Hyman will not resile as Michael Nylander once did with the Edmonton Oilers.

If they don't have a deal, then all bets are off.

Chances are they come to an agreement on a new contract, but that is not related to expansion. It has more to do with numbers and the cap. If they don't get a deal, it's not due to Seattle.
 
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Gary Nylund

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:facepalm:

We're not talking about chosing 1 player for the impending playoff run, on the context of the present Toronto Maple Leafs team.

We're talking about who the best player is; contextual factors removed. William Nylander is a better hockey player than Zach Hyman. This isn't isn't a slight against him -- it's just the reality of his game. The reason it's so difficult for the Leafs to replace him, is solely because of the cap constraints caused by the big 4.

~$3-4m buys you a Zach Hyman. $3-4m cannot buy you a William Nylander.

I clarified several times that who is the best player right now is what I'm talking about. Perhaps you missed that, if so then that's on you.

If you think Nylander is a better hockey player, that's fine. Hyman is the better player today and the team he plays on doesn't enter into it.

Comparing contracts isn't relevant as many factors are involved in contract negotiations other then how good a player is today such as age, term and a bunch of other things.

If both players were to sign a one year deal today, it's not clear to me at all that Nylander gets paid more.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
 

seanlinden

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Apr 28, 2009
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I clarified several times that who is the best player right now is what I'm talking about. Perhaps you missed that, if so then that's on you.

If you think Nylander is a better hockey player, that's fine. Hyman is the better player today and the team he plays on doesn't enter into it.

Comparing contracts isn't relevant as many factors are involved in contract negotiations other then how good a player is today such as age, term and a bunch of other things.

If both players were to sign a one year deal today, it's not clear to me at all that Nylander gets paid more.


I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Yeah, I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on that one... without a doubt.
 

frizzer1

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Oct 19, 2013
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For me , how Hyman perfoms in the playoffs will determine what he’s worth.
 
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